MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called M ulti N est . This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior samples from distributions that may contain multiple modes and pronounced (curving) degeneracies in high dimensions. The developments presented here lead to further substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness, as compared to the original algorithm presented in Feroz & Hobson, which itself significantly outperformed existing Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques in a wide range of astrophysical inference problems. The accuracy and economy of the M ulti N est algorithm are demonstrated by application to two toy problems and to a cosmological inference problem focusing on the extension of the vanilla Λ cold dark matter model to include spatial curvature and a varying equation of state for dark energy. The M ulti N est software, which is fully parallelized using MPI and includes an interface to C osmo MC, is available at http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/software/multinest/ . It will also be released as part of the SuperBayeS package, for the analysis of supersymmetric theories of particle physics, at http://www.superbayes.org .     

The EMIR Near-Infrared Multi-Object Spectrograph for GTC

EMIR is a near-infrared (NIR) multi-object spectrograph (MOS) proposed for first-generation common user instrument of the Gran Telescopio Canarias GTC. It has three observing modes: imaging, multiobject spectroscopy and integral-field spectroscopy, in the NIR Z, J, H and K bands. The design uses cryogenic multislit masks to allow simultaneous spectroscopy of up to approximately 50 objects. The spectral resolution R=5000 allows for effective "see through" the OH line forest that dominates the J and H sky backgrounds. EMIR addresses one of the fundamental goals of large telescopes, the spectroscopy of large quantities of faint sources. Science applications include young stellar objects embedded in molecular clouds, brown dwarfs, stellar clusters, resolved population in external galaxies and distant galaxies. EMIR is being designed by a consortium of Spanish, UK and French Institutes. Project updates and information will be posted at http://www.ucm.es/info/emir/. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of selected Kepler Mission planetary light curves

We have modified the graphical user interfaced close binary system analysis program CurveFit to the form WinKepler and applied it to 16 representative planetary candidate light curves found in the NASA Exoplanet Archive (NEA) at the Caltech website http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu, with an aim to compare different analytical approaches. WinKepler has parameter options for a realistic physical model, including gravity-brightening and structural parameters derived from the relevant Radau equation. We tested our best-fitting parameter-sets for formal determinacy and adequacy. A primary aim is to compare our parameters with those listed in the NEA. Although there are trends of agreement, small differences in the main parameter values are found in some cases, and there may be some relative bias towards a 90^° value for the NEA inclinations. These are assessed against realistic error estimates. Photometric variability from causes other than planetary transits affects at least 6 of the data-sets studied; with small pulsational behaviour found in 3 of those. For the false positive KOI 4.01, we found that the eclipses could be modelled by a faint background classical Algol as effectively as by a transiting exoplanet. Our empirical checks of limb-darkening, in the cases of KOI 1.01 and 12.01, revealed that the assigned stellar temperatures are probably incorrect. For KOI 13.01, our empirical mass-ratio differs by about 7 % from that of Mislis and Hodgkin (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 422:1512, 2012), who neglected structural effects and higher order terms in the tidal distortion. Such detailed parameter evaluation, additional to the usual main geometric ones, provides an additional objective for this work.     

Spectral Energy Distribution fitting: Application to Lyα-emitting galaxies

Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) fitting is a well-developed astrophysical tool that has recently been applied to high-redshift Lyα-emitting galaxies. If rest-frame ultraviolet through near-infrared photometry is available, it allows the simultaneous determination of the star formation history and dust extinction of a galaxy. Lyα-emitter SED fitting results from the literature find star formation rates 3 M yr⁻¹, stellar masses 10⁹ M for the general population but 10¹⁰ M for the subset detected by IRAC, and very low dust extinction, A_V  0.3, although a couple of outlying analyses prefer significantly more dust and higher intrinsic star formation rates. A checklist of 14 critical choices that must be made when performing SED fitting is discussed.     

The effects of Prandtl number on black hole accretion flows

Recent numerical simulations of MHD turbulence, under very different driving conditions, and by several different investigators, all indicate a sensitivity of the rms fluctuations to the ratio of the microscopic viscosity to resistivity. This dimensionless quantity is known as the magnetic Prandtl number Pm. In general, standard astrophysical accretion disks are characterized by Pm  1 throughout their radial extent, while low luminosity accretors (e.g. Sag A^*) have Pm  1. Here, we show that standard α models of black hole accretion disks have a transition radius, measured in tens of Schwarzschild radii, at which the flow goes from Pm  1 to Pm  1. Moreover, this transition may well be dynamically unstable, leading to a sort of two-phase “Prandtl number medium” We advance the idea that this is the physical reason underlying the change in the accretion properties of the inner regions of Keplerian disks, leading to a truncation of the cool disk (Pm  1) and the onset of hot, low density gas flow (Pm  1).     

A method for a short-term forecast of the absorbed dose accumulation dynamics on the international space station based on radiation monitoring system data

Many papers are devoted to the prediction of radiation conditions on board of a spacecraft (Pichkhadze et al., 2004; Khamidullina et al., 2008; 2012), and a number of software systems for corresponding calculations have been developed: the US information system CREME96 (https://creme.isde.vander-bilt.edu/); European SPENVIS (http://www.spenvis.oma.be/intro.php); Russian SEREIS (Kuznetsov et al., 2001; Model’ kosmosa, 2007) and COSRAD (http://cosrad.sinp.msu.ru/manual.html; Kuznetsov et al., 2011) based on the models of the radiation environment in near-Earth space (Bashkirov et al., 1998; Nymmik, 2004; Model’ kosmosa, 2007; Kuznetsov et al., 2011). In this paper we propose a simple calculation algorithm of short-term (for a few days) forecasting of dynamics of the radiation dose on the International Space Station (ISS) in radiation environment undisturbed by solar proton events. This algorithm does not use radiation environment models and detailed ballistic calculations, while it uses data of the onboard radiation monitoring system (RMS) and empirical relations, obtained for ISS orbital motion.     

ITERA: IDL tool for emission-line ratio analysis

We present a new software tool to enable astronomers to easily compare observations of emission-line ratios with those determined by photoionization and shock models, ITERA, the IDL Tool for Emission-line Ratio Analysis. This tool can plot ratios of emission lines predicted by models and allows for comparison of observed line ratios against grids of these models selected from model libraries associated with the tool. We provide details of the libraries of standard photoionization and shock models available with ITERA, and, in addition, present three example emission-line ratio diagrams covering a range of wavelengths to demonstrate the capabilities of ITERA. ITERA, and associated libraries, is available from http://www.brentgroves.net/itera.html.     

The IAC online catalog for M‐, L‐ and T‐type dwarfs

We present an online catalog for dwarfs with spectral types M, L and T. The catalog currently contains 893 objects listed in order of right ascension. For most of them the spectra can be downloaded from the catalog in ASCII or FITS formats. The web address is http://www.iac.es/galeria/ege/catalogo spectral/.     

Field reconnaissance of the Anti-Atlas coastline, Morocco: Fluvial and marine evidence for Late Cenozoic uplift

The available evidence regarding the disposition and chronology of Pliocene–Pleistocene fluvial terraces, coastal rock flats, raised beaches and lacustrine sediments adjoining the Anti-Atlas coastline of Morocco has been reviewed and supplemented by additional information from our own field reconnaissance. It is thus suggested that the study region has experienced uplift by  130 m since the Mid-Pliocene climatic optimum ( 3.1 Ma), by  90 m since the latest Pliocene ( 2 Ma), and by  45 m since the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution ( 0.9 Ma). Each of these phases of uplift correlates with a phase of global climate change known independently, and it is thus inferred that the observed uplift is being driven by climate through mechanisms such as erosional isostasy and the associated induced lower-crustal flow. Numerical modelling of the observed uplift history indicates that the mobile lower-crustal layer in the study region is  9 km thick, with a temperature at its base of  500 °C. The base of this mobile layer is inferred to be at  24 km depth, the deepest crust consisting of a layer of mafic underplating that does not flow under ambient conditions. The principal landform in the study region, the coastal rock platform at  60 m a.s.l., thus formed during a succession of interglacial marine highstands in the late Early Pleistocene when uplift rates were low. Although control on the ages of young sediments and landforms is currently extremely limited, being dependent on regional correlation schemes rather than on absolute dating, the study region fits the pattern, emerging worldwide, that climate change is driving the systematic growth of topographic relief evident during the Late Cenozoic.     

The Astro-WISE approach to quality control for astronomical data

We present a novel approach to quality control during the processing of astronomical data. Quality control in the Astro-WISE Information System is integral to all aspects of data handing and provides transparent access to quality estimators for all stages of data reduction from the raw image to the final catalog. The implementation of quality control mechanisms relies on the core features in this Astro-WISE Environment (AWE): an object-oriented framework, full data lineage, and both forward and backward chaining. Quality control information can be accessed via the command-line awe-prompt and the web-based Quality-WISE service. The quality control system is described and qualified using archive data from the 8-CCD Wide Field Imager (WFI) instrument (http://www.eso.org/lasilla/instruments/wfi/) on the 2.2-m MPG/ESO telescope at La Silla and (pre-)survey data from the 32-CCD OmegaCAM instrument (http://www.astro-wise.org/~omegacam/) on the VST telescope at Paranal.     

Preservation by basalt of a staircase of latest Pliocene terraces of the River Murat in eastern Turkey: Evidence for rapid uplift of the eastern Anatolian Plateau

Unspiked K–Ar dating makes the age of the Çakmaközü basalt in eastern Turkey 1818 ± 39 ka (± 2σ). This basalt overlies a staircase of four terraces of the River Murat, a Euphrates tributary, each separated vertically by  20 m. We deduce from the relationship with the basalt that these fluvial deposits aggraded during successive  40 ka climate cycles around the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary (probably MIS 72-66). The incision and rock uplift at  0.5 mm a^− 1, thus indicated, are roughly consistent with the  500 m of entrenchment of this  1.8 Ma Murat palaeo-valley into a former lake basin since the Mid-Pliocene climatic optimum. We infer that the  130 m of incision in this locality since  1.8 Ma dramatically underestimates the associated rock uplift, estimated as  600 m. The  1100 m of rock uplift and  800 m of surface uplift thus estimated since the Mid-Pliocene indicate (assuming Airy isostatic equilibrium)  5 km of thickening of the continental crust, from  37 km to the present 42 km. Eastern Anatolia was thus at a much lower altitude in the Mid-Pliocene than at present, consistent with the low-relief lacustrine palaeo-environment. We infer that the subsequent development of topography and excess crustal thickness are being caused by coupling between surface processes and induced flow in the lower crust: climate change following the Mid-Pliocene climatic optimum resulted in faster erosion that has drawn mobile lower crust beneath the study region.     

Sensitivity plots for WIMP direct detection using the annual modulation signature

Annual modulation due to the Earth's motion around the Sun is a well-known signature of the expected weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) signal induced in a solid state underground detector. In the present paper, we discuss the prospects of this technique on statistical grounds, introducing annual-modulation sensitivity plots for the WIMP–nucleon scalar cross-section for different materials and experimental conditions. The highest sensitivity to modulation is found in the WIMP mass interval 10m_W130 GeV, the actual upper limit depends on the choice of the astrophysical parameters, while the lowest values of the explorable WIMP–nucleon elastic cross-sections fall in most cases within one order of magnitude of the sensitivities of the present direct detection WIMP searches.     

Late Cenozoic uplift of western Turkey: Improved dating of the Kula Quaternary volcanic field and numerical modelling of the Gediz River terrace staircase

A set of 13 new unspiked K–Ar dates has been obtained for the Quaternary basaltic volcanism in the Kula area of western Turkey, providing improved age control for the fluvial deposits of the Gediz River that underlie these basalt flows. This dating is able, for the first time, to resolve different ages for the oldest basalts, assigned to category β2, that cap the earliest Gediz deposits recognised in this area, at altitudes of 140 to 210 m above present river level. In particular, the β2 basalt capping the Sarnıç Plateau is dated to 1215 ± 16 ka (± 2σ), suggesting that the youngest underlying fluvial deposits, 185 m above present river level, are no younger than marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 38. In contrast, the β2 basalt capping the adjacent Burgaz Plateau is dated to 1014 ± 23 ka, suggesting that the youngest underlying fluvial deposits, 140 m above present river level, date from MIS 28. The staircase of 11 high Gediz terraces capping the latter plateau is thus dated to MIS 48-28, assuming they represent consecutive 40 ka Milankovitch cycles, although it is possible that as many as two cycles are missing from this sequence such that the highest terrace is correspondingly older. Basalt flows assigned to the β3 category, capping Gediz terraces 35 and 25 m above the present river level, have been dated to 236 ± 6 ka and 180 ± 5 ka, indicating incision rates of 0.15 mm a^− 1, similar to the time-averaged rates since the eruptions of the β2 basalts. The youngest basalts, assigned to category β4, are Late Holocene; our K–Ar results for them range from zero age to a maximum of 7 ± 2 ka.This fluvial incision is interpreted using numerical modelling as a consequence of uplift caused by a regional-scale increase in spatial average erosion rates to 0.1 mm a^− 1, starting at 3100 ka, caused by climate deterioration, since when a total of 410 m of uplift has occurred. Parameters deduced on this basis from the observed disposition of the Early Pleistocene Gediz terraces include the local effective viscosity of the lower crust, which is 2 × 10¹⁸ Pa s, the Moho temperature of 660 °C, and the depth of the base of the brittle upper crust, which is 13 km. The thin lithosphere in this area results in high heat flow, causing this relatively shallow base of the brittle upper crust and the associated relatively thick lower-crustal layer, situated between depths of 13 and 30 km. It estimated that around 900 ka, at the start of the 100 ka Milankovitch forcing, the spatial average erosion rate increased slightly, to 0.12 mm a^− 1; the associated relatively sluggish variations in uplift rates are as expected given the relatively thick lower-crustal layer.This modelling indicates that the growth of topography since the Pliocene in this study region has not involved a steady state. The landscape was significantly perturbed by the Middle Pliocene increase in erosion rates, and has subsequently adjusted towards—but not reached—a new steady state consistent with these increased erosion rates. It would not be possible to constrain what has been occurring from the Middle to Late Pleistocene or even the Early Pleistocene uplift response alone; information regarding the starting conditions is also essential, this being available in this region from the older geological record of stacked fluvial and lacustrine deposition. This result has major implications for the rigorous modelling of uplift histories in regions of rapid erosion, where preservation of information to constrain the starting conditions is unlikely.     

A metric and optimization scheme for microlens planet searches

OGLE III and MOA-II are discovering 600–1000 Galactic bulge microlens events each year. This stretches the resources available for intensive follow-up monitoring of the light curves in search of anomalies caused by planets near the lens stars. We advocate optimizing microlens planet searches by using an automatic prioritization algorithm based on the planet detection zone area probed by each new data point. This optimization scheme takes account of the telescope and detector characteristics, observing overheads, sky conditions and the time available for observing on each night. The predicted brightness and magnification of each microlens target are estimated by fitting to available data points. The optimization scheme then yields a decision on which targets to observe and which to skip, and a recommended exposure time for each target, designed to maximize the planet detection capability of the observations. The optimal strategy maximizes detection of planet anomalies, and this must be coupled with rapid data reduction to trigger continuous follow-up of anomalies that are thereby found. A web interface makes the scheme available for use by human or robotic observers at any telescope. We also outline a possible self-organizing scheme that may be suitable for coordination of microlens observations by a heterogeneous telescope network.     

Comparative analysis of long-period variations in day duration and solar activity from 1700–2003

A comparative analysis of both long-period deviations in the duration of a day from the standard (86400 s) and solar activity during the years 1700–2003 has been conducted. The comparative analysis was based on the average annual data on LOD (http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/) and the number of sunspots W (http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/). The analysis was aimed at studying the evolution of the solar-terrestrial relationship under conditions of insufficient physical data on the origin and interaction of such oscillations in irregular variations in the duration of a day and in parameters characterizing solar activity. The analysis was conducted using three methods, i.e., the periodogram method, the method of exponential data approximation (the Prony method), and the technique of wavelet data transformation. A comparison of the analysis results allows the general conclusion to be drawn that such variations over ～11-yr-long and ～22-yr-long periods are coherent in the data on LOD and W. The amplitude of a squared absolute value of coherence comprises 72% for 11-year and 74% for 22-year variations.     

Mineralogical characterization of potential targets for the ASTEX mission scenario

In-situ investigation of asteroids is the next logical step in understanding their exact surface mineralogy, petrology, elemental abundances, particle size distribution, internal structure, and collisional evolution. Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) provide us with ample opportunities for in-situ scientific exploration with lower Δv requirements and subsequently lower costs than their main belt counterparts. The ASTEX mission concept aims at surface characterization of two compositionally diverse NEAs, one with primitive and the other with a strong thermally evolved surface mineralogy. Here we present the first results of our ground-based characterization of potential ASTEX mission targets using the SpeX instrument on the NASA IRTF. Of the four potential targets we characterized, two (1991 JW and 1998 PA) have compositions similar to ordinary chondrite mineralogy. The other two targets (1994 CC and 1999 TA10) are thermally evolved objects with igneous formation histories. While 1994 CC is a triplet system and thus very challenging to orbit the V-type NEA, 1999 TA10 is the most interesting scientific ASTEX target identified so far.     

KLENOT Project 2002–2008 contribution to NEO astrometric follow‐up

Abstract— Near‐Earth object (NEO) research plays an increasingly important role not only in solar system science but also in protecting our planetary environment as well as human society from the asteroid and comet hazard. Consequently, interest in detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and the physical characterizing of these bodies has steadily grown. The discovery rate of current NEO surveys reflects progressive improvement in a number of technical areas. An integral part of NEO discovery is astrometric follow‐up crucial for precise orbit computation and for the reasonable judging of future close encounters with the Earth, including possible impact solutions. The KLENOT Project of the Klet Observatory (South Bohemia, Czech Republic) is aimed especially at the confirmation, early follow‐up, long‐arc follow‐up, and recovery of near‐Earth objects. It ranks among the world's most prolific professional NEO follow‐up programs. The 1.06 m KLENOT telescope, put into regular operation in 2002, is the largest telescope in Europe used exclusively for observations of minor planets and comets, and full observing time is dedicated to the KLENOT team. In this paper, we present the equipment, technology, software, observing strategy, and results of the KLENOT Project obtained during its first phase from March 2002 to September 2008. The results consist of thousands of precise astrometric measurements of NEOs and also three newly discovered near‐Earth asteroids. Finally, we also discuss future plans reflecting also the role of astrometric follow‐up in connection with the modus operandi of the next generation surveys.     

Pointing and tracking analysis of alt‐azimuthal multi‐focus telescopes: the THEMIS case

We discuss the pointing and tracking configuration of THEMIS which may be considered as representative of those alt‐azimuthal telescopes with an optical configuration with multiple focal planes, not all locked to both the alt‐azimuthal coordinates. In the THEMIS case two focal planes are present. The primary focus F1 is locked to the alt‐azimuthal mount, while the secondary focus F2 (which is used by the instruments), is only locked to the azimuth angle. The different contributions to the final accuracy of both absolute pointing and tracking as observed at F2 are defined, and an extimation of the contribution of each component of the whole chain which affects the field position at F2 (software, mechanical and optical) is given. The experimental data are the result of a test campaign carried on at THEMIS in February and March 2002. We can say that (a) for all the used observing configurations, the tracking accuracy is coherent at any point along the trajectory with the correspondent absolute pointing accuracy, which is an indication for the quality of the telescope dynamical performances (b) the main contribution to the residual field shift which is observed at F2 arises from the opto‐mechanical alignment configuration of the optics between F1 and F2, which therefore is the crucial point for such multi‐focus configuration. More informations can be found at the official THEMIS website (http://www.themis.iac.es).     

The Astro-WISE optical image pipeline

We have designed and implemented a novel way to process wide-field astronomical data within a distributed environment of hardware resources and humanpower. The system is characterized by integration of archiving, calibration, and post-calibration analysis of data from raw, through intermediate, to final data products. It is a true integration thanks to complete linking of data lineage from the final catalogs back to the raw data. This paper describes the pipeline processing of optical wide-field astronomical data from the WFI (http://www.eso.org/lasilla/instruments/wfi/) and OmegaCAM (http://www.astro-wise.org/~omegacam/) instruments using the Astro-WISE information system (the Astro-WISE Environment or simply AWE). This information system is an environment of hardware resources and humanpower distributed over Europe. AWE is characterized by integration of archiving, data calibration, post-calibration analysis, and archiving of raw, intermediate, and final data products. The true integration enables a complete data processing cycle from the raw data up to the publication of science-ready catalogs. The advantages of this system for very large datasets are in the areas of: survey operations management, quality control, calibration analyses, and massive processing.