美国西部的长期干旱变化

一些水文气候资料分析表明,美国西部正在经历着多年的严重干旱。然而,利用重建的覆盖美国西部大部分地区的过去1200年的网格化干旱资料进行分析,看出与更早时期出现的极端干旱和发生在公元800～1300年间(中世纪暖期(MWP))的大范围严重干旱相比,现在正经历的干旱还不算很严重。如果美国西部干旱程度的加强是一种对气候变暖的自然响应,那么任何将来温度增暖的趋势都将会加剧美国西部地区的长期干旱。     

Aerosol radiative properties in the semiarid Western United States

Characterization of aerosol optical properties, such as aerosol optical depth, Angstrom exponent, and volume size distribution at the semiarid site of Tombstone Arizona (31°23′N, 110°05′W, 1408 m) will be presented for one annual cycle. In this region, extensive observations of selected optical parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been made in the past and reported on in the literature. Less is known about other optical characteristics that are important in climate modeling and remote sensing. New observational techniques and inversion methods allow for the expansion of the earlier information. Observations have been taken with a state of the art sun photometer for a 1-year period and their analysis will be presented here. Monthly mean AODs at 500 nm were found to be in the range of 0.03–0.12; the monthly mean Angstrom exponent ranged from 0.9 to 1.6, being higher in spring and summer and lower in late fall and winter. Volume size distributions exhibit clear dominance of smaller particles, with a gradual increase in size from winter to spring and into summer. Annual variation of the radii of the smaller and the larger particles ranged between 0.05–0.4 and 4–8 μm, respectively. Radiance measurements at 940 nm were used to estimate precipitable water. The retrieved values compared within limits of uncertainty with independently derived estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional weather forecast model. An interesting outcome from this study was the consistency found in aerosol optical depths as observed in this study and those derived about two decades ago.     

Numerical study of the cloud seeding effects

The microphysical model with the bulk water parameterization is applied to simulated both contact and deposition nucleation as well as the imersion freezing for unseeded cases and the cases immediately after seeding performed for the cold continental Cb clouds with small cloud droplets. The injection of agent AgI is performed in temperature region between –8°C and –12°C. The four groups of sensitivity experiments are executed.

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF?≥?50,000 ac?~?20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p?≤?0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs.     

Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (20 years) and three future(2040–2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper describes the regional simulations and focuses on the hydroclimate conditions in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and Sacramento-San Joaquin River (SSJ) Basin. Results based on global and regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1 to 2.5 °C strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack was about70% as indicated by the regional simulations. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation increased by 5 to 15 mm/day (15–20%) along theCascades and the Sierra. The warming resulted in increased rainfall at the expense of reduced snowfall, and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the CRB, these changes were accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induced higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the CRB and SSJ basin were affected mainly by changes in surface temperature, which were statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, while spatially incoherent, were not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer. Because snow and runoff are highly sensitive tospatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that (1) downscaling provides more realistic estimates of hydrologic impacts in mountainous regions such as the western U.S., and (2) despite relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, changes in snowpack and runoff can be much larger on monthly to seasonal time scales because the effects of temperature and precipitation are integrated over time and space through various surface hydrological and land-atmosphere feedback processes. Although the results reported in this study were derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by a global climate model that displays low climate sensitivity compared with most other models, climate change was found to significantly affect water resources in the western U.S. by the mid twenty-first century.     

层状云增雨催化剂用量的估算

通过人工影响天气原理的分析,从过冷水量的平衡关系．分析了作业时机与部位;从过冷水量、冰面与水面饱和水汽密度差、固相雨胚、催化剂扩散等方面,在国内外的观测事实与数值模拟结果的基础上,估算了催化剂的用量与播撒速率,对实际工作有一定的参考意义。但是,所得的结果是初步的．还存在许多方面的不确定性,有待进一步完善。     

Comparison Between Computer Simulation of Transport and Diffusion of Cloud Seeding Material Within Stratiform Cloud and the NOAA-14 Satellite Cloud Track

A precipitation enhancement operation using an aircraft was conducted from 1415 to 1549 LST 14 March 2000 in Shaanxi Province. The NOAA-14 satellite data received at 1535 LST soon after the cloud seeding shows that a vivid cloud track appears on the satellite image. The length, average width and maximum width of the cloud track are 301 kin, 8.3 and 11 kin, respectively. Using a three-dimensional numerical model of transport and diffusion of seeding material within stratiform clouds, the spatial concentration distribution characteristics of seeding material at different times, especially at the satellite receiving time,are simulated. The model results at the satellite receiving time axe compared with the features of the cloud track. The transported position of the cloud seeding material coincides with the position of the track. The width, shape and extent of diffusion of the cloud seeding material are similar to that of the cloud track.The spatial variation of width is consistent with that of the track. The simulated length of each segment of the seeding line accords with the length of every segment of the track. Each segment of the cloud track corresponds to the transport and diffusion of each segment of the seeding line. These results suggest that the cloud track is the direct physical reflection of cloud seeding at the cloud top. The comparison demonstrates that the numerical model of transport and diffusion can simulate the main characteristics of transport and diffusion of seeding material, and the simulated results are sound and trustworthy. The area, volume, width, depth, and lateral diffusive rate corresponding to concentrations 1, 4, and 10 L^-1 are simulated in order to understand the variations of influencing range.     

祁连山云系云微物理结构和人工增雨催化个例模拟研究

人工影响天气的学科基础是中小尺度天气动力学与云降水物理学,需要将天气-动力-云降水物理耦合为一体。考虑到目前将天气动力学性质的基础数值模式用于人工影响天气中的问题,从数值模式动力方程、模式分辨率、云物理过程、数值求解方案、初边值条件等方面系统地探索了发展人工影响天气数值模式中一些需要重点解决、且不可忽视的特色问题,并举例对相关问题提出了解决思路和方法。期望提出的问题有助于构思更适合于人工影响天气数值模式,使数值模式功能真正向满足人工影响天气的要求靠近一步。     

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.     

Tendencies for the amounts of chemical material used for cloud seeding in Serbia

Weather modification activities are performed predominantly by cloud seeding. Some operational projects have been performed for more than half a century and cover planetary scales. These activities lead to a large amount of deposited chemical materials (seeding agents) at the ground level during precipitation. These deposits depend on the amount of the seeding agent. In the future, increased amounts of seeding agent deposits could be a serious problem due to various negative effects on the human environment. Therefore, the main intent of this paper is to determine trends for the seeding agent amount over certain areas of Serbia. Four areas covered by the Hail Suppression Project in Serbia are considered: the target area in central Serbia and areas in western and central Serbia, which are well-known hailfall regions. The annual seeding agent amounts show a slow decreasing trend because fewer seedings were performed during the last decade of the last century, which was due to economic reasons. In contrast, the annual seeding agent amounts of the other analysed areas indicate an increasing trend induced by the transfer of rockets to these hailfall regions. The main difference among small areas is the mean agent amount and its maximum time position as a consequence of the high spatial and time variability of the hail. However, a sharp decreasing trend that is influenced by the implementation of new methodologies, seeding agents and delivery tools may also be a factor in the implementation of cloud seeding projects. The given method is not only strictly applicable locally and may be applied to any other cloud seeding scenario and seeding area. Dominantly increasing trends in the agent amount indicate that the importance of weather modifications in the future will be greater than ever and will have both positive and negative effects.     

Snow water changes with elevation over the Western United States in IPCC AR4 models

This work analyzes variations of snow water with elevation for a group of AR4 models over the Western United States. The results are expressed in terms of both snow water equivalent (SWE), which is the depth of snow if melted, and snow water volume (SWV), which is the total volume of SWE for a specified region. The decrease in total SWV over the study region between 1905 and 25 and 1980–99 is about 22%, which is in the range of the observed values. The results for both the A1b and B1 scenarios for the middle twenty-first century both show a near total loss of SWE at lower elevations. However, the largest losses for SWV are near 1800 m. Furthermore, the total SWV loss for the A1b scenario is about 63%, whereas that for the more moderate B1 scenario is about 49%. Thus, a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is likely to reduce the loss of snow, which is vital to society in the dry Western United States.     

盐粉催化积云降水的数值模拟

本文利用二维直角坐标非定常积云降水模式模拟播撒盐粉催化降水过程.播撒是在云中一个网格点中一次引入盐粉,盐粉进云后碰并云滴长大并随云中气流移动和沉降.在计算盐粉成雨的同时还计算自然成雨. 计算结果表明,在合适条件下,盐粉催化后约半小时可出现增雨,增加雨量为10％—50％,它是播撒量的几千倍.盐粉直径小的降雨效率高,但在云中生长时间长,一般采用几十微米至一百微米直径的盐粉为宜.     

减弱对流云降水的AgI催化原理的数值模拟研究

在对流云模式中增加了AgI两个预报量,耦合了考虑受水汽过饱度和温度影响的4种核化机制的AgI催化模块,使其具备了对AgI类催化剂的模拟能力,能够研究AgI类催化剂对对流云系统的影响。利用该模式对一次华南对流云降水过程进行了AgI催化数值模拟试验,对人工减缓对流云降水的可能性及原理进行了研究。模拟结果表明,在适当的时机对适当的部位进行大剂量的催化,可以减少总降水量,也可以减少最大降水中心的雨强。当催化浓度达到2×10~8 kg~(-1)时,可以减少32%的降水量,具备有效减缓对流云降水的可能性。大剂量催化后,大量的AgI粒子在冷区核化后,消耗了大量的过冷水。催化后霰粒子的落速和雨水的落速减小。催化阶段由于霰融化成雨水减少而使降水减弱。催化结束后在霰融化成雨水增多的情况下,雨水的蒸发大幅增加,从而导致了降水量的持续减少。AgI在模拟的强对流云中主要以受过饱和度影响的凝结冻结和催化剂长时间作用的浸没冻结这两种方式成核。研究所用催化方法在外场作业中具有技术可行性。     

Direct cloud water recovery by inertial impaction: Implications for large scale water supply in the Cape Verde Islands

Summary In this study, we explore the idea of harvesting cloud water in mountainous areas of the drought prone Cape Verde Islands as a year-round fresh water resource based on three cloud water collection experiments in the islands. Cloud water was collected by impaction on a commercially available, plastic, agricultural shade cloth at Serra Malagueta, Santiago, and at Monte Verde, São Vicente. This shade screen possesses superior properties to other reported materials for cloud water collection, including an impact-efficient mesh shape, high tensile strength and durability, tear resistance, and excellent water drainage characteristics. Collection efficiency of monofilament knitted shade screen varied with the mesh density (50% or 70% shading) and height of the screens, but for Monte Verde all screens above 3 m collected greater than 6 lm^–2 day^–1 on average for 315 days of measurement. Dry season collection for the most effective panel, a double layer of 50% shading screen, ranged from 1.3 lm^–2 day^–1 in December, 1988, to 7.8 and 7.7 lm^–2 day^–1 in November and April, 1988 respectively. Based on these measurements, we discuss a logical next phase for implementation of a large scale cloud water catchment system.With 3 Figures     

An inadvertent transport of the seeding material as a result of cloud modification

Successful seeding of clouds in weather modification experiments essentially depends on the seeding time and dynamics, amount of seeding material and location of the initial seeding area. In the present study, we focus on the influence of the initial seeding zone location on the transport of seeding agent material into the target cloud. In addition, the inadvertent transport of seeding material is analysed. During weather modification activities, a lot of seeding material can be transferred far from the seeding zone in a downwind direction. The primary motivation for this research was to prove this statement. We use a three-dimensional, mesoscale cloud-resolving model to achieve our goal. We performed sensitivity tests with respect to the distance between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud. Different seeding scenarios are analysed. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) For distances between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud below 2.5 km, all seeding agent material would be activated after a short time. For distances above 10 km, most of the seeding agent would remain inactivated, because horizontal transport of the seeding agent becomes more important than transport induced by the main updraft. For these scenarios, the seeding agent is injected in the cold peripheral part of the cloud. (2) Sensitivity tests show that the inactivated seeding agent would remain close to the seeding area if the seeding is performed below cloud base. This effect occurs even for large distances between the seeding area and the target cloud (>20 km) due to low-level convergence. Thus, this seeding method suppresses the inert seeding material from being transferred far from the seeding zone. (3) The complete seeding material stays inactivated if the seeding is performed between the ?8 and ?12°C isotherms in front of the increased reflectivity zone. As a consequence, it would be transferred far from its initial area. The cloud would not be able to capture the seeding agent even during its greatest lateral extent.     

Airborne measurements of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic cloud seeding on orographic precipitation

Data from in situ probes and a vertically-pointing mm-wave Doppler radar aboard a research aircraft are used to study the cloud microphysical effect of glaciogenic seeding of cold-season orographic clouds. A previous study (Geerts et al., 2010) has shown that radar reflectivity tends to be higher during seeding periods in a shallow layer above the ground downwind of ground-based silver iodide (AgI) nuclei generators. This finding is based on seven flights, conducted over a mountain in Wyoming (the Unites States), each with a no-seeding period followed by a seeding period. In order to assess this impact, geographically fixed flight tracks were flown over a target mountain, both upwind and downwind of the AgI generators. This paper examines data from the same flights for further evidence of the cloud seeding impact. Composite radar data show that the low-level reflectivity increase is best defined upwind of the mountain crest and downwind of the point where the cloud base intersects the terrain. The main argument that this increase can be attributed to AgI seeding is that it is confined to a shallow layer near the ground where the flow is turbulent. Yet during two flights when clouds were cumuliform and coherent updrafts to flight level were recorded by the radar, the seeding impact was evident in the flight-level updrafts (about 610 m above the mountain peak) as a significant increase in the ice crystal concentration in all size bins. The seeding effect appears short-lived as it is not apparent just downwind of the crest.     

Rainfall patterns in the eastern United States

This investigation is an extension of earlier work on rainfall patterns in the western United States. In the present study, rainfall figures from World Weather Records for cities east of the Mississippi have been subjected to filter analysis using the four filters described in the earlier investigation.The results suggest substantial coherence of rainfall data in a broad central area of North America, from the Great Lakes to the Rockies and into southern parts of the Canadian Prairies and Ontario. In this entire region there appears to be a pronounced rainfall cycle, of about 22 yr, which exhibits a possible relationship with the double sunspot cycle. However, inland from the U.S. north-east coast and including southern Quebec and the Canadian maritime Provinces, the cycle is different and is closer to 16 yr.Although the earlier investigation pointed to a connection between the lunar cycle of 18.6 yr and rainfall behaviour in the far west of the United States, there is little evidence of a similar connection in the east.     

Model analysis of radar echo split observed in an artificial cloud seeding experiment

An artificial cloud seeding experiment was performed over the Japan Sea in winter to show how massive seeding could be effective to mitigate heavy snowfall damage. The results showed that 20 min after cloud seeding, a portion of the radar echo beneath the seeding track was weakened to divide the radar echo into two parts. In order to analyze the results, a numerical simulation was conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model verion 3.5.1. In this simulation, the seeding effects were represented as phenomena capable of changing rain particles by accreting cloud ice and snow to form graupel particles and by changing cloud liquid water to snow particles. The graupel particles fell rapidly, thus temporarily intensifying the rainfall, which subsequently decreased. Therefore, the weakened radar echo in the field experiment is deemed to have been caused by the increase in rapidly falling graupel particles.     

人工影响天气飞机播云作业有效催化范围的模拟评估

针对人工影响天气飞机播云作业效果评估需求,提出一种基于拉格朗日粒子扩散模式FLEXPART-WRF的催化剂催化范围模拟评估方法.以典型催化剂碘化银为例,开发催化剂物理化学特性参数清单模块,结合飞机播云特点和模式源项特点,将飞机不规则线性播撒方式离散化为连续移动点源播撒方式,实现模式对飞机播云的模拟能力.通过对一次飞机播云作业的模拟试验,证实了模拟评估方法的可行性和有效性.     

United States non-cooperation and the Paris agreement

In June 2017, the Trump administration decided to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, a landmark climate agreement adopted in 2015 by 195 nations. The exit of the US has not just raised concern that the US will miss its domestic emission reduction targets, but also that other parties to the Paris Agreement might backtrack on their initial pledges regarding emission reductions or financial contributions. Here we assess the magnitude of the threat that US non-cooperation poses to the Paris Agreement from an international relations perspective. We argue that US non-cooperation does not fundamentally alter US emissions, which are unlikely to rise even in the absence of new federal climate policies. Nor does it undermine nationally determined contributions under pledge and review, as the Paris Agreement has introduced a new logic of domestically driven climate policies and the cost of low-carbon technologies keeps falling. However, US non-participation in raising climate finance could raise high barriers to global climate cooperation in the future. Political strategies to mitigate these threats include direct engagement by climate leaders such as the European Union with key emerging economies, notably China and India, and domestic climate policies that furnish benefits to traditional opponents of ambitious climate policy.

Key policy insights

• US non-cooperation need not be a major threat to pledge and review under the Paris Agreement.

• US non-cooperation is a serious threat to climate finance.

• Deeper engagement with emerging economies offers new opportunities for global climate policy.