1998年东亚夏季风波包传播特征研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 850hPa风场资料和高度场资料,分析了1998年东亚夏季风强弱变化与波动能量传播特征,表明东亚夏季风存在着加强和减弱的阶段性特征,其季风的爆发、加强、北推东扩与波包的加强和传播有显著的联系.在季风加强期,中、低纬地区一般为波包大值区并有波包加强和向东传播.东亚夏季风爆发前,季风加强主要受中低纬度系统能量的东传影响;东亚夏季风爆发后,季风加强期波包的经向传播十分明显,但期间波包也表现出一定的北传特征,表明低纬地区的系统能量也起一定作用.在东亚夏季风减弱期东亚为波包小值区控制,显示出在季风减弱阶段波包能量的传播也有减弱的特征.     

太阳磁场磁性指数的变化对南亚夏季风环流强度的影响

利用太阳黑子相对数资料,根据太阳磁场磁性特征建立了太阳磁场磁性指数时间序列,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料建立了1948-2006年的南亚夏季风环流强度指数,对两者之间存在的可能相关关系作了分析。结果表明：太阳磁场磁性变化是激发南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化的重要原因,当太阳北（南）半球磁场磁极为N（S）极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较强,当太阳北（南）半球磁场磁极为S（N）极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较弱,太阳磁场磁性强度的变化超前于南亚夏季风环流强度变化5年左右。两者之间的这种相关关系,为南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化方面的预测提供了理论依据。     

青藏高原冬季植被变化与南亚夏季风关系分析

利用1982年1月-2001年12月青藏高原植被归一化指数(NDVI)和NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,应用相关分析、奇异值分解(SVD)和经验正交分解(EOF)的方法,分析了青藏高原冬季的NDVI变化与南亚夏季风的关系.通过分析表明,高原植被与南亚地区850hPa纬向风场和纬向风垂直切变(U850hPa-U200hPa)有比较好的正相关关系.用纬向风垂直切变EOF分析的第一特征向量对应的时间系数定义一个南亚夏季风指数(EOFI),该系数与高原冬季NDVI相关较好,而且能较好地反映南亚夏季风的变化.     

The link between interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and summer precipitation in Shandong Province

Relationship between the onset date of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Shandong Province was examined by comprehensive analysis to establish a conceptual model of the link. If the summer monsoon occurs earlier, the 500 hPa level would induce the teleconnection of Eurasian pattern in the summer (June-August), which indicates that the western Pacific subtropical high is displaced northward further than usual, the Siberian high is intensified and the Okhotsk low is deepened. Under such circumstance, Shandong, located in the west side of the subtropical high and in front of the mid-Siberia high, would be expected to have a wet summer because it is quite possible for cold and warm air to meet and interact with each other in Shandong. Statistical analysis revealed that the 500 hPa anomalies over Korea and Japan were sensitive to the SCS monsoon onset date and very important to precipitation in Shandong, and that the convective activities over the deep water basin in the SCS in 24-26 pentads significantly influenced the position of the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high. These findings yielded better understanding of the causative mechanisms involved in the precipitation generation, so that the knowledge gained can possibly be applied for long-lead forecast.     

Distributions of sulfur pollutants in East Asia

1　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩｔｉｓｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｔｏｒｅａｌｉｚｅｔｈｅｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｐｏｌｌｕｔａｎｔｓｂｅｆｏｒｅｔｈｅｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎｃａｎｂｅｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｌｅｄｓｕｃ ｃｅｓｓｆｕｌｌｙ .Ｏｗｉｎｇｔｏｔｈｅｌａｃｋｏｆｓｙｓｔｅｍａｔｉｃａｌｏｂｓｅｒｖａ ｔｉｏｎｓｉｎａｂｒｏａｄａｒｅａ ,ｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｈａｓｂｅ ｃｏｍｅａｐｏｗｅｒｆｕｌｔｏｏｌｔｏｕｎｄｅｒｓｔａｎｄｔｈｅｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｐｏｌｌｕｔａｎｔｓａ…     

索马里急流和南亚高压对印度夏季风爆发的协同作用

【目的】探讨索马里急流和南亚高压对印度夏季风(Indian Summer Monsoon,ISM)爆发产生的协同作用。【方法】基于ECMWF欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料(ERA5)提供的逐日数据,结合印度气象局对ISM爆发日期(即印度次大陆最南端的喀拉拉邦降水骤升的日期)的统计数据采用功率谱分析、偏相关分析和滑动相关等统计学方法,分析索马里急流和南亚高压对ISM爆发的协同作用。【结果】ISM爆发前1候至当候,印度地区对流层高层南亚高压的范围和强度不断扩大,同时对流层低层索马里急流的强度和范围不断增强,使阿拉伯海地区的西南气流不断增强,将阿拉伯海地区大量水汽输送至印度大陆,在这样有利的条件下,印度南部降水量剧增,ISM爆发;当5月下旬的南亚高压、索马里急流以及阿拉伯海地区水汽通量和气旋性环流均显著偏强时,ISM会提前爆发,降水也会异常偏多。【结论】ISM爆发日期受到索马里急流和南亚高压两者协同作用的影响,而并非单独受到某个系统的影响。     

An Alternative Index for the Onset of the Summer Monsoon over the South China Sea

1　Introduction　TheindicesfortheAsianmonsoonhavebeenstud iedinmanyworks .Recently ,thechoiceofpropermonsoonindiceshasreceivedexceptionalattentionandraisedcontroversy (WebsterandYang ,1 992 ;Goswa mietal.,1 999;Goswami,2 0 0 0 ;Wang ,2 0 0 0 ) .Us ingzona…     

Circulation patterns of summer monsoon corresponding to two kinds of indices over the South China Sea

The characteristics of circulation corresponding to two kinds of indices of summer monsoon onset over the South China Sea (SCS) have been discussed using the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research. It is found that there are two patterns of deep convection that occur at different locations and influence the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. One is over the Asia continent and the western Pacific corresponding to the southwesterly of summer monsoon prevailing over the northern and central part of the SCS, while the other is near the Philippines that affects the westerly summer monsoon as prevailing over the central and southern southern part of the SCS. Since these two kinds of convection affecting the summer monsoon onset do not always occur together, thus the summer monsoon onset time is different when determined by various indices.     

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002. The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented. The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice, that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area. The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer (June-August) precipitation in China. The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south, and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin. While the winter index is positive (negative), the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier (later), with a probability of 79% (80%). Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.     

Influence of summer monsoon on asymmetric bimodal pattern of tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the Bay of Bengal

The influence of summer monsoon on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is explored using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. The annual cycle of cyclogenesis frequency over the BoB shows an asymmetric bimodal pattern with the maximum genesis number appearing in late October and the second largest in early May. The two peaks correspond to the withdrawal and onset of the BoB summer monsoon, respectively. The semimonthly GP index calculated without TC days over the BoB is consistent with TC genesis frequency, indicating that the index captures the monsoon-induced changes in the environment that are responsible for the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency. Of the four environmental variables (i.e., low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, potential intensity, and vertical wind shear) that enter into the GP index, the potential intensity makes the largest contribution to the bimodal distribution, followed by vertical wind shear due to small wind speed during the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal. The difference in TC genesis frequency between autumn and late spring is mainly owing to the relative humid-ity difference because a divergence (convergence) of horizontal moisture flux associated with cold dry northerlies (warm wet wester-lies) dominates the BoB in late spring (autumn).     

On the origin of rice agriculture in southern China and its propagation in East Asia

Based on the archaeological rice cultivation with the¹⁴C dating of about 4000–5000 a B.P. the author holds that the plain at the lower reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River is one origin of rice cultivation in Asia and the other is Allahabad of India. The propagation of ancient rice cultivation in China can be divided into three stages, namely 4000–3000, 2635–2420 and about 1000 a B.P. It is inferred that there were two ways for propagating rice cultivation from China to Japan. One was from lower reaches of Changjiang River to Kyushu by sea way and the other was from Shandong Peninsula to southern Korea and then to Kyushu. The age of propagating rice cultivation into Vietnam from South China is about 1000 a B.P. Being influenced by climatic changes since about 5000 a B.P. the propagation of rice cultivation was stagnated for two times at least, for example, the three warm climatic stages and the two cold stages were quite in correspondence with the propagation and stagnation stages of rice cultivation, respectively, in China. During the ancient times the development of paddy rice was directive related to the fluctuation of sea level which is in keeping with the climatic changes.     

Anomalies of asian summer monsoon related to ssta in the south China Sea and the tropical pacific

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Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.     

区域气候模式RegCM3对中国夏季降水的模拟

利用意大利国际理论物理中心（ICTP）最新发布的区域气候模式RegCM3检验我国包括青藏高原地区夏季降水的模拟能力。初始值及边界值取自美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）和国家大气中心（NCAR）的全球再分析资料。模式积分时间为2005年5月1日到2005年8月31日,考虑到模式的“spin-up”时间,只对6月1日-8月31日的模式结果进行分析。模式水平分辨率取为60km,范围包括整个青藏高原在内的我国及周边地区（14°-55°N,70°-140°E）。结果表明：RegCM3具有模拟我国夏季降水主要分布特征的能力,尤其在观测站点稀少的青藏高原地区可提供局地降水分布的较可靠信息。模式较好地模拟了包括整个青藏高原在内的我国区域降水的月际尺度变化和空间分布等基本特征,但对我国东南地区的夏季降水模拟能力有待进一步提高。     

硫酸盐气溶胶对长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响

为了研究人为硫酸盐气溶胶增长对1970年代末长江中下游夏季降水年代际转型的影响,使用全球气候模式（GFDL—AM2）,对硫酸盐直接气候效应进行了模拟。结果表明,硫酸盐气溶胶增长引起的降水年代际变化与观测到的降水转型有很好的时空一致性;观测中包括副热带高压西伸南移、中国东部近地面异常北风等夏季风年代际减弱信号以及对应的垂直温度、上升运动分布等均能很好地被模式再现。机制上,硫酸盐气溶胶通过引起负辐射强迫,造成中国中东部的大部分地区地面到对流层中层降温,海陆热力对比减小,使东亚夏季风减弱,雨带容易在长江中下游停留,从而导致该区域降水增多。于是,硫酸盐气溶胶增多对长江中下游降水年代际转型有重要贡献。     

高亚洲及其邻区2003~2017年质量平衡的气候影响分析

利用重力恢复和气候实验(GRACE)数据获得高亚洲及其邻近地区的质量变化,可分析区域气候因素如印度季风、西风带和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对结果的影响。然而,最近的研究发现,西风带的贡献小于厄尔尼诺,与传统研究结论不同。因此,利用2003-01~2017-06期间GRACE RL06的Mascon数据进行复经验正交函数（CEOF）分析。研究发现,前3个主要成分对研究区质量变化的贡献率分别为53%、27%和6%,与印度季风、西风带和ENSO指数的相关系数分别是0.92±0.16、0.70±0.15和0.42±0.15,说明在长达14 a的观测时间跨度内,印度季风、西风带和ENSO对研究区质量变化的贡献分别为53%、27%和6%,西风带是研究区质量变化的第2个影响因素,这支持了传统的研究结论;ENSO通过印度季风对某些区域（如帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山脉和印度西北部）的质量变化产生影响;在印度西北部、喜马拉雅山脉和藏东南地区,由于印度季风的减弱及其相关的ENSO作用和西风带的加强,质量变化呈现下降趋势;在兴都库什、西昆仑和东昆仑地区,由于西风带的增强,质量变化呈上升的趋势;在帕米尔和天山地区,虽然受到较强西风带的影响,但由于同时受到印度季风和ENSO减弱以及气温上升趋势的影响,质量变化呈下降的趋势。     

东亚副热带西风急流的时间演变特征及其与中国东部夏季降水的关系

为深入了解东亚副热带西风急流与中国天气系统之间的联系,利用1961-2007年美国国家环境预报中心（NCAR／NCEP）再分析月资料和同期中国596站的降水资料,运用经一纬向急流轴和区域平均两种定义方法分析了西风急流的时间演变特征及其与中国东部降水型的关系,结果表明：（1）两种方法对西风急流东西、南北位置转折时段的分析很接近,分别出现在20世纪80年代和70年代;对西风急流强度、南北位置周期的表征也很一致,分别为10-15年和5-10年。（2）当西风急流位置偏北（南）时,东部地区整层大气环流呈“南北上升中间下沉（南北下沉中间上升）”的形势,850hPa的流场和水汽通量输送都有利于华北地区（江淮河流）的降水,易于形成“南北多中间少（南北少中间多）”的雨带分布,推测这两种反相位雨型的间隔时间为2．5-5年;相比之下,急流东西位置和强度的周期性变化与东部局地降水存在一定联系。     

Cold event at 5 500 a BP recorded in mud sediments on the inner shelf of the East China Sea

A 700-year record (1.0–1.5 a resolution) of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), based on grain-size analysis and AMS¹⁴C dating of Core EC2005 from the inner-shelf mud wedge of the East China Sea (ECS), was compared with the Dongge stalagmite δ¹⁸O record during the mid-Holocene. The upper muddy section of Core EC2005 has been formed mainly by suspended sediments derived from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River mouth since 7.3 ka BP. High precipitation and a strengthened EAWM might have played key roles in the high sedimentation rate (1 324–1 986 cm/ka) between 5.9–5.2 ka BP. The EAWM strengthened when the Asian summer monsoon weakened, especially around 5 500 a BP, which corresponded to a worldwide cold event. The EAWM during the mid-Holocene shows statistically significant solar periodicities at 62 and 11 a. The 5 500 a BP cold event might be resulted from orbital forcing and changes in solar activity.     

Thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice during the austral summer in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica

The thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice play a key role in the ice-ocean-atmosphere system and have been a focus of recent scientific research. In this study, we investigated the thermodynamic properties of snow cover on sea ice in the Nella Fjord, Prydz Bay, East Antarctica(69°20′S, 76°07′E), near the Chinese Antarctic Zhongshan Station. Our observations were carried out during the 29th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition. We found that the vertical temperature profile of snow cover changed considerably in response to changes in air temperature and solar radiation during the summer. Associated with the changes in the temperature profile were fluctuations in the temperature gradient within the upper 10 cm of the snow cover. Results of previous research have shown that the thermal conductivity of snow is strongly correlated with snow density. To calculate the thermal conductivity in this study, we measured densities in three snow pits. The calculated thermal conductivity ranged from 0.258–0.569 W?m-1?K-1. We present these datasets to show how involved parameters changed, and to contribute to a better understanding of melting processes in the snow cover on sea ice.     

热带次表层海温对中国东部夏季气候的影响

热带海洋热状况是影响中国气候变化的主要因子之一,为了研究热带次表层海温如何影响中国气候,通过相关计算和合成分析等方法讨论了热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温异常对中国东部夏季降水和温度的影响。结果表明:当冬季赤道东印度洋至西太平洋次表层海温偏暖(偏冷),中印度洋和东太平洋次表层海温偏冷(偏暖),夏季,长江中下游地区降水偏少(偏多),华南、华北和东北大部地区降水偏多(偏少);中国东部大范围高温(低温)。其可能的影响途径为,东亚夏季风环流对热带次表层海温异常的响应导致了其年际变化,进而引起中国东部夏季气候的异常分布。