An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.     

A Review of Louisiana Drilling and Production Activity, 1980–2011

Louisiana plays an important role in domestic oil and natural gas production, and in 2012 ranked sixth in oil production and third in gas production in the United States. Conventional oil and gas production in Louisiana has been declining steadily over the past four decades, while unconventional gas production has seen spectacular growth in recent years, effectively doubling the state’s natural gas output over three years. The structural changes impacting Louisiana’s oil and gas industry are complex and dynamic, and to better understand the relationships between activity drivers, a review of drilling and production data between 1980 and 2011 is performed and correlative relationships are developed. Drilling and completion trends, including completion and success rate statistics and drilled footage, are summarized by region. Correlative relationships are established between measured footage and the number of wells drilled, drilling activity, abandonments, and commodity price. We show that drilling activity in North Louisiana is highly responsive to changing oil prices, whereas in South Louisiana, activity is relatively inelastic. Well abandonments are shown to be negatively related to commodity prices. Horizontal, directional, active, idle, and orphaned well inventories are summarized.     

Assessment Methodology and Results From the Canadian Gas Potential Committee 2001 Report

Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.     

Environment,Culture, and The Great Lakes Fisheries

The commercial fisheries of the United States and Canadian Great Lakes are in a long period of decline. Detailed statistics kept for well over a century document a fluctuating pattern of harvests of the major commercial species. In the 1940s, sea lamprey began to devastate the fisheries, an effect that has not been fully countered. Overfishing, nonnative species, declining nutrient levels, and chemical pollution have contributed to reduced catches. Court decisions in the United States and Canada during the past thirty years have awarded a sizable share of commercial fishing rights to Native North Americans for their own support and sustenance. The Lake Erie yellow perch and walleye fishery, based mainly in Ontario, is the most successful commercial fishing operation in the region. Despite the many environmental and cultural challenges, the Great Lakes fisheries live on.     

90年代加拿大移民地区结构新特点

90年代是战后以来加拿大移民的高峰时期,本文总结了这一时期加拿大移民来源地和居住分布的新特点。其突出表现是：亚洲已成为加拿大最大的移民来源地,其中来自香港、中国大陆和台湾的华人成为最大的移民群体;移民选择大城市,尤其是多伦多、温哥华和蒙特利尔三大都市区作为定居地的倾向进一步加强。     

全球液化天然气运输网络特征及其演化

液化天然气(liquefied natural gas,LNG)作为一种清洁低碳能源,在全球能源消费市场中发挥着越来越重要的作用.LNG通过船舶在港口之间进行运输,但当前对港口尺度下的贸易模式及其演化了解相对有限.因此,本文采用复杂网络指标和社区探测方法,利用2013-2017年全球LNG船舶轨迹大数据来分析其贸易格局...     

世界天然气资源的储、产、供需动向及我国的对策

为了积极开拓利用天然气资源的途径,本文分析了世界天然气资源及其供需动向。我国进口天然气的国际资源条件是可能的,价格是有利的。东南沿海地区从东南亚进口液化天然气和从俄罗斯进口管输天然气是经济的、可行的。中东的液化天然气将是潜力较大的进口对象。     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2007–2008 Review

This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in the future.

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Geologic and societal factors affecting the international oceanic transport of aggregate

Crushed stone and sand and gravel are the two main sources of natural aggregate, and together comprise approximately half the volume and tonnage of mined material in the United States. Natural aggregate is a bulky, heavy material without special or unique properties, and it is commonly used near its source of production to minimize haulage cost. However, remoteness is no longer an absolute disqualifier for the production of aggregate. Today interstate aggregate routinely is shipped hundreds of kilometers by rail and barge. In addition, during 1992, the United States imported 1,317,000 metric tons of aggregate from Canada and 1,531,000 metric tons from Mexico. A number of ports on the Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States receive imports of crushed stone from foreign sources for transport to various parts of the eastern United States. These areas either lack adequate supplies of aggregate or are augmenting their supplies because they have difficulties meeting current demand. These difficulties may include poor stone quality, environmental permitting problems, or transportation. Certain societal and geologic conditions of New York City and Philadelphia along the Atlantic Coast, and Tampa and New Orleans along the Gulf Coast, are discussed to demonstrate the different combinations of issues that contribute to the economic viability of importing crushed stone.     

Preference for Grassland Heterogeneity: Implications for Biodiversity in the Great Plains

The Great Plains of the United States is a grassland region managed primarily for homogeneity associated with production agriculture. The resulting decline of obligate fauna makes enhancing biodiversity an increasingly important ecological goal. A survey was administered to land managers and the general population in ranching regions of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. This research explores the preferred characteristics of privately owned grasslands among ranchers and the general population for vegetation structure and biodiversity. Results indicate a knowledge gap between biodiversity and the vegetation heterogeneity required to support it. Preference for grassland structure is seen as a sociocultural driver of decisions on management practices that constrain adoption of heterogeneity management. Conserving biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem services provided by heterogeneous grasslands can be accomplished by demonstrating that conservation advantages of heterogeneity and production agriculture are compatible.     

北极航道海运货流类型及其规模研究

从北极海运货源角度出发,根据北极贸易、油气开发以及远东-西北欧、远东-北美东部当前海运货量状况,分析得出未来北极航道主要货物类型和规模的最大理论值为：（1）从俄罗斯、北欧北极地区到远东的液化天然气单向贸易流型式,到2030年,为1 000万t;（2）从远东到欧美的集装箱货物双向贸易流型式,北极东北航道、中央航道分担远东到西北欧航线的货运量,北极西北航道分担远东到北美东部的货运量,如果技术上能够低成本保障全季航行,按分担传统运河航线50%计算,到2030年,北极航道集装箱货运规模最大值约为1 743万TEU,是2011年传统运河航线的85%。由此得出结论：近中期东北航道天然气运输占据主要地位,但对北极航道更大运输需求是集装箱运输。此外,本文还比较了北极航道与运河航线的成本。     

北冰洋陆架的划界现状

北冰洋面积约1 300×10⁴ km²,周边国家对200 M（海里）大陆架及专属经济区的划界现状及对200 M外大陆架的诉求,对于我们参与北极科考具有十分重要的参考意义。大陆架与专属经济区的划界,美国与苏联已签署协定,美国国会已批准,但前苏联和俄罗斯未批准,这直接导致两国的海域争议不断。俄罗斯与挪威也已签署协议。美国与加拿大之间未签署协议,争议区超过7 000 M²。丹麦与加拿大已签署协议,完成划界,但存在汉斯岛的主权争议。挪威与丹麦及挪威与冰岛已完成划界。根据《联合国海洋法公约》第76条规定,北冰洋周边国家拥有确定北冰洋200 M外大陆架的权利。俄罗斯和挪威已提交200 M外大陆架划界方案,挪威对南森海盆西部的划界方案已得到大陆架界限委员会原则同意,但俄罗斯方案仍有很大的争议。作为《斯瓦尔巴条约》的签署国,斯瓦尔巴协定区,我们有权进入;因美国没有签署《联合国海洋法公约》,阿拉斯加北部大陆架及200 M外的楚科奇海台,都是我们进行科考的选择。此外,也可以通过国际合作,参与不同海域的科考和研究。     

THE ALBERTA OIL SANDS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER*

ABSTRACT. The United States produces less than half of the oil it consumes, a dependence unlikely to subside without drastic improvements in domestic production, development of renewable resources, and greater energy efficiency. All three of these actions, even if ultimately meaningful, will take time to produce results, so the United States is likely to continue to depend on outside suppliers. The most tempting of these suppliers is Canada, especially its massive oil sands in northeastern Alberta Province. In this article I ask why that is true and, more important whether the arrangement is mutually beneficial. The answers are strongly related to location; that is, the location of supply and the location of demand. The view from the south favors Canada above all other countries as a likely source for meeting the growing U.S. oil needs, yet not without accompanying unintended consequences. When viewed from the north, the monetary attraction of the oil sands is weakened by the environmental costs that are likely if their development expands as expected. Weighing these perspectives, the question is whether the combination of demand and environmental concerns leads to, accelerates, or discourages development. Viewing such a prospect from both sides of the border challenges the view that development of natural resources is always inevitable or wise, regardless of apparent profitability and need. Much depends on location.     

Issues in Energy Economics Led by Emerging Linkages between the Natural Gas and Power Sectors

Fuel prices in 2006 continued at record levels, with uranium continuing upward unabated and coal, SO₂ emission allowances, and natural gas all softening. This softening did not continue for natural gas, however, whose prices rose, fell and rose again, first following weather influences and, by the second quarter of 2007, continuing at high levels without any support from fundamentals. This article reviews these trends and describes the remarkable increases in fuel expenses for power generation. By the end of 2005, natural gas claimed 55% of annual power sector fuel expenses, even though it was used for only 19% of electric generation. Although natural gas is enormously important to the power sector, the sector also is an important driver of the natural gas market—growing to over 28% of the market even as total use has declined. The article proceeds to discuss globalization, natural gas price risk, and technology developments. Forces of globalization are poised to affect the energy markets in new ways—new in not being only about oil. Of particular interest in the growth of intermodal traffic and its a little-understood impacts on rail traffic patterns and transportation costs, and expected rapidly expanding LNG imports toward the end of the decade. Two aspects of natural gas price risk are discussed: how understanding the use of gas in the power sector helps define price ceilings and floors for natural gas, and how the recent increase in the natural gas production after years of record drilling could alter the supply–demand balance for the better. The article cautions, however, that escalation in natural gas finding and development costs is countering the more positive developments that emerged during 2006. Regarding technology, the exploitation of unconventional natural gas was one highlight. So too was the queuing up of coal-fired power plants for the post-2010 period, a phenomenon that has come under great pressure with many consequences including increased pressures in the natural gas market. The most significant illustration of these forces was the early 2007 suspension of development plans by a large power company, well before the Supreme Court’s ruling on CO₂ as a tailpipe pollutant and President Bush’s call for global goals on CO₂ emissions.

Source Country Differences in the Spatial Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States

Statistical analysis of foreign direct investment in the United States reveals source country differences in interstate location. We relate these differences to the knowledge foreign investors have of the United States. Regression analysis indicates a significant concentration of foreign investment from individual countries in larger states and in border states. Worldwide investment in the United States does not show these preferences. Investment from Japan and Canada accounted for most of the interstate dispersal of foreign employment in the 1980s.     

基于复杂网络理论的中美原油进口空间格局演进比较

依据中美原油进口源地数据,运用网络分析法,比较了中美原油进口贸易空间结构的演化轨迹与特征。研究表明,相同的认知活动使两国的原油进口策略取向变得一致。1993年后,美中原油进口来源国数量有着几乎相同的增长趋势;但美国原油进口权重基本趋于平稳,中国原油进口权重基本处于上升通道中,同时中美贸易联系不仅存在强度上的差异,分区域的强度次序也存在重大差异;美国原油进口空间格局的权重熵经历了由高到低的演变,权重熵的比较揭示出1993年之后中国原油进口系统有序性要低于美国。以上结果表明追求多元化不应以均质化为目标,不同的主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合自己的区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。     

TRACEABILITY: TRACKING AND PRIVACY IN THE FOOD SYSTEM*

ABSTRACT. Lapses in food safety have spurred development of governmental traceability systems to track every stage of food production as part of a standardized information base. These systems form part of national and international government efforts to reduce food‐security risks and control food‐related disease outbreaks. The European Union, the United States, Japan, and Canada have traceability requirements now in various stages of implementation, as does the Codex Alimentarius. Traceability regulations require that, from farm (plant or animal) to fork, foods have a clear, verifiable record that tracks through all stages of cultivation, production, supplying, transporting, processing, and distribution. Traceability implies complete information control over the geography of one of life's most essential acts, eating. The apparent object of traceability is food, which seems to imply that human tracking is not part of the process, but food does not move on its own. Those people responsible at each stage for food transfers and transactions may go into the traceability database, making their locations part of the record and supporting precise monitoring of labor performance, consumer buying patterns, and ownership and management strategies. Given these capabilities, the development of public‐sector traceability systems demands careful consideration. Owners, especially large exporters and importers, are likely to see their needs and fears shape the system. The food workforce may well bear tracking's brunt. Consumers, the presumed beneficiaries of the systems, will probably resist direct incorporation (and full benefit), favoring their privacy over their safety.     

Examining the Variability of Crossing Times for Canadian Trucks at the Three Major Canada–U.S. Border Crossings

Land borders connecting Canada and the United States are vital transportation facilities for the two countries. Truck crossing times at these facilities can have a significant impact on the performance of the economy. To date, knowledge about border crossing times has been limited due to lack of detailed data on the Canadian border. This article explores and models the patterns of crossing times at the three major land crossings connecting Canada to the United States: Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge, and Peace Bridge. The analysis is based on 387,775 border crossing truck trips that were generated between Canada and the United States over a course of twelve months. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are estimated to evaluate the seasonal and hourly crossing times of Canada- and U.S.-bound trips on each border crossing, controlling for traffic intensity in the models. The SUR modeling approach is chosen to control for potential cross-model correlations. The results suggest that crossing times at the border vary by season and hour of the day. Crossing times also vary by direction of traffic and by type of day (i.e., weekday vs. weekend). Traffic intensity has a significant influence on crossing times at two of the crossings but not the Blue Water Bridge. Finally, crossing times are more variable during the summer season and tend to be higher during the late evening hours and past midnight.     

FOREIGN OWNERSHIP AND TRADE OF UNITED STATES HIGH-TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING

Analysis of recent trends in the foreign ownership and trade of United States high-technology manufactures reveals that foreign-based corporations are intensifying their direct investments in United States technology-intensive industries, that the locations of foreign-owned subsidiaries are becoming increasingly dispered thoughout the country, and that the industry-level concentration of foreign direct investments is highly correlated with the specialization of United States high-technology imports from the principal investing countries.     

Econometric and learning curve estimation of U.S. potential oil supply

This study employs (1) a simple econometric model to generate a time series of drilling footage to the year 2040 and (2) learning models to estimate the oil reserve additions from that drilling, given scenarios of oil price and projected U.S. population. Reserve additions are estimated separately for the lower 48 states and Alaska regions by estimating separate drilling footage and learning models for each region. Generally, the estimates of potential supply from undiscovered oil fields and from extensions of known fields are more optimistic than recent estimates by others. For a $1989 price of about $20/barrel (bbl), which is similar to recent prices, the potential supply of oil is estimated to be approximately 60.7 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 54.3 and 67.1 billion bbl. For a price of $25.50/bbl, potential supply is estimated to be approximately 82 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 74.5 and 89.5 billion bbl. Although estimates of potential oil supply for the entire United States are more optimistic than other recent estimates, the part of that supply estimated to be forthcoming from Alaska is smaller than other recent estimates: 2.3 and 3.3 billion bbl for prices of about $20 and $25.50 per barrel, respectively. Thus, reserve additions from the lower 48 states through development drilling and through improved recovery and production technologies will become increasingly important to future U.S. oil supply.