基于随机森林模型的干旱绿洲区张掖盆地地下水水质评价

为合理准确评价地下水水质,建立了基于随机森林（RF）模型的地下水水质评价模型,并根据张掖盆地81个地下水采样点的pH值、Cl^-、SO₄^2-、NO₃^-、Na⁺、NH₄⁺含量及总硬度的监测数据,对研究区的地下水水质进行了综合评价。结果表明：盆地地下水水质主要为Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ类水,其中甘州区地下水埋藏较深,水体不容易受到来自地面的污染,水质较好,大多数地方为Ⅱ类水;临泽县和高台县地下水埋藏较浅,水质较差,大多数地方为Ⅲ类水,尤其高台县的水位最浅,再加上地处河段下游,污染更为严重,部分地区达到Ⅳ类。根据指标的重要性度量发现影响研究区域地下水水质的主要因子是NO₃^-含量;其次是NH₄⁺、SO₄^2-、Na⁺、Cl^-含量及总硬度、pH值。为验证模型的有效性,将地下水水质评价结果与基于支持向量机（SVM）和人工神经网络（ANN）的地下水水质综合评价模型模拟结果进行对比,3个模型均能很好地评价研究区地下水水质,但RF模型的评价结果更为准确。     

3D Mineral Prospectivity Mapping with Random Forests: A Case Study of Tongling,Anhui, China

Natural Resources Research - In the past few decades, a variety of data-driven predictive modeling techniques has led to a dramatic advancement in mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM). The random...     

Comparison of the Data-Driven Random Forests Model and a Knowledge-Driven Method for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping: A Case Study for Gold Deposits Around the Huritz Group and Nueltin Suite,Nunavut, Canada

This paper outlines the process taken to create two separate gold prospectivity maps. The first was created using a combination of several knowledge-driven (KD) techniques. The second was created using a relatively new classification method called random forests (RF). The purpose of this study was to examine the results of the RF technique and to compare the results to that of the KD model. The datasets used for the creation of evidence maps for the gold prospectivity mapping include a comprehensive lake sediment geochemical dataset, interpreted geological structures (form lines), mapped and interpreted faults, lithology, topographic features (lakes), and known Au occurrences. The RF method performed well in that the gold prospectivity map created was a better predictor of the known Au occurrences than the KD gold prospectivity map. This was further validated by a fivefold repetition using a subset of the input training areas. Several advantages to the use of RF include (1) the ability to take both continuous and/or categorical data as variable inputs, (2) an internal, unbiased estimation of the mapping error (out-of-bag error) removing the need for a cross-validation of the final outputs to determine accuracy, and (3) the estimation of importance of each input variable. Efficiency of prediction curves illustrates that the RF method performs better than the KD method. The success rate is significantly higher for the RF method than for the KD method.     

中国西部干旱区生态景观制图的若干问题

制图方法是认识和揭示客观现象与过程的重要途径。生态景观制图作为专题制图学的一个重要方向,通过建立分类体系,制定分类方法,编制专题图件,可以反映自然要素和人为作用的特点,揭示生态景观要素的耦合关系。生态景观制图中专题要素的表现方式,制图过程的数据采集,制图单元的划分,制图的模式选择,以及遥感、GIS与数字制图手段的应用,是十旱Ⅸ景观生态制图的关键问题。生态景观制图巾的地图信息理论、地图模式论、地图分析理论、地图要素综合理论、制冈工艺学等的发展,对于开拓资源环境制图学的新领域具有理论价值,并对生态规划与生态建设具有重要促进作用。     

A MaxEnt Model for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

Mineral prospectivity mapping is an important preliminary step for mineral resource exploration. It has been widely applied to distinguish areas of high potential to host mineral deposits and to minimize the financial risks associated with decision making in mineral industry. In the present study, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to investigate its potential for mineral prospectivity analysis. A case study from the Nanling tungsten polymetallic metallogenic belt, South China, was used to evaluate its performance. In order to deal with model over-fitting, varying levels of β _j -regularization were set to determine suitable β value based on response curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, as well as via visual inspections of prospectivity maps. The area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.863) suggests good performance of the MaxEnt model under the condition of balancing model complexity and generality. The relative importance of ore-controlling factors and their relationships with known deposits were examined by jackknife analysis and response curves. Prediction–area (P–A) curves were used to determine threshold values for demarcating high probability of tungsten polymetallic deposit occurrence within small exploration area. The final predictive map showed that high favorability zones occupy 14.5% of the study area and contain 85.5% of the known tungsten polymetallic deposits. Our study suggests that the MaxEnt model can be efficiently used to integrate multisource geo-spatial information for mineral prospectivity analysis.     

制图数据的模糊分级处理模型研究

传统的制图数据分级方法存在对原始数据信息的歪曲、普适性不强及计算复杂等问题。基于此,结合现实分级问题的模糊性,提出基于模糊统计分析模型的制图数据分级处理方法。首先通过专家系统获取各模糊样本集,利用统计分析方法求得样本分布函数;然后利用分布函数获得模糊隶属函数,进而求取各模糊集的最模糊点;最后根据最模糊点获得各模糊集的区域划分,从而实现对制图数据的分级处理。该方法不需要对影响级别划分的多因子进行分析和转换,降低了计算的复杂度;另外,该方法是在获得原始数据实际分布的基础上进行的,在后续的分级过程中避免了对原始数据信息的歪曲。     

海河流域地表水与地下水耦合模拟

近10年来海河流域地下水超采严重,急需加强流域地表水与地下水统一管理。地表水与地下水的耦合模拟研究是实现流域地表与地下水资源综合管理的重要支撑。本文探讨了当前3种不同的地表水与地下水耦合方式,基于现有数据条件和应用管理的需求,提出了将成熟的流域地表水SWAT与地下水MODFLOW模型进行松散耦合的技术框架,并构建了海河流域地表水与地下水耦合模型。在流域地表空间上,根据流域特性和管理需求,划分了283个子流域和2100个水文响应单元（HRU）;在平原区地下空间上,基于15个大的岩性分区剖分出若干个4km×4km网格。通过GIS平台,建立流域地表水与地下水计算单元的转换关系。并利用1995．2004年水文气象数据进行验证分析,取得较好模拟精度。该耦合模型不仅能够支撑流域现状管理,而且可用于气候变化与南水北调工程对流域水资源影响评估分析。     

连续证据权重法及其在矿产潜力预测中的应用研究

目前分类证据权重法只能处理分类证据因子,连续证据因子在转化为分类数据时,必然导致信息损失;而且证据因子按分类计算权重,不能从整体上反映该证据因子对成矿有利的权重。该文尝试对分类证据权重法进行改进,将分类证据隶属度扩充为连续证据隶属度,并修改证据因子权重的计算方法,避免同一证据因子权重的重复累加,建立基于连续证据因子的模糊证据权重法。以实际的矿产潜力预测为例,对比分析分类证据权重法与所提出的模糊连续证据权重法。结果表明,基于连续证据因子的模糊证据权重法能够克服分类证据模型后验概率空间突变情况,利于预测结果的制图输出,并在一定程度上提高后验概率精度。     

A Bat Algorithm-Based Data-Driven Model for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

In data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping, a statistical model is established to represent the spatial relationship between layers of metallogenic evidence and locations of known mineral deposits, and then, the former are integrated into a mineral prospectivity model using the established model. Establishment of a data-driven mineral prospectivity model can be regarded as a process of searching for the optimal integration of layers of metallogenic evidence in order to maximize the spatial relationship between mineral prospectivity and the locations of known mineral deposits. Mineral prospectivity can be simply defined as the weighted sum of layers of metallogenic evidence. Then, the optimal integration of the layers of evidence can be determined by optimizing weight coefficients of the layers of evidence to maximize the area under the curve (AUC) of the defined model. To this end, a bat algorithm-based model is proposed for data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping. In this model, the AUC of the model is used as the objective function of the bat algorithm, and the ranges of the weight coefficients of layers of evidence are used to define the search space of the bat population, and the optimal weight coefficients are then automatically determined through the iterative search process of the bat algorithm. The bat algorithm-based model was used to map mineral prospectivity in the Helong district, Jilin Province, China. Because of the high performance of the traditional logistic regression model for data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping, it was used as a benchmark model for comparison with the bat algorithm-based model. The result shows that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the bat algorithm-based model is coincident with that of the logistic regression model in the ROC space. The AUC of the bat algorithm-based model (0.88) is slightly larger than that of the logistic regression model (0.87). The optimal threshold for extracting mineral targets was determined by using the Youden index. The mineral targets optimally delineated by using the bat algorithm-based model and logistic regression model account for 8.10% and 11.24% of the study area, respectively, both of which contain 79% of the known mineral deposits. These results indicate that the performance of the bat algorithm-based model is comparable with that of the logistic regression model in data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping. Therefore, the bat algorithm-based model is a potentially useful high-performance data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping model.

     

A Hybrid Fuzzy Weights-of-Evidence Model for Mineral Potential Mapping

This paper describes a hybrid fuzzy weights-of-evidence (WofE) model for mineral potential mapping that generates fuzzy predictor patterns based on (a) knowledge-based fuzzy membership values and (b) data-based conditional probabilities. The fuzzy membership values are calculated using a knowledge-driven logistic membership function, which provides a framework for treating systemic uncertainty and also facilitates the use of multiclass predictor maps in the modeling procedure. The fuzzy predictor patterns are combined using Bayes’ rule in a log-linear form (under an assumption of conditional independence) to update the prior probability of target deposit-type occurrence in every unique combination of predictor patterns. The hybrid fuzzy WofE model is applied to a regional-scale mapping of base-metal deposit potential in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province (western India). The output map of fuzzy posterior probabilities of base-metal deposit occurrence is classified subsequently to delineate zones with high-favorability, moderate favorability, and low-favorability for occurrence of base-metal deposits. An analysis of the favorability map indicates (a) significant improvement of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the high-favorability and moderate-favorability zones and (b) significant deterioration of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the low-favorability zones. The results demonstrate usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy WofE model in representation and in integration of evidential features to map relative potential for mineral deposit occurrence.     

地表水和地下水耦合模型研究进展

地表水和地下水的转换及其过程耦合模拟,是水资源开发利用和科学评价的基础。本文归纳了国内外16 种地表水和地下水耦合模型,并根据耦合模型的特点和耦合方式,划分了三类耦合类型,即：紧密耦合型、半松散耦 合型和松散耦合型。对其中比较典型的“四水”转化模型、SWATMOD、MIKE- SHE、MODBRANCH 模型进行了对比分 析,剖析了不同耦合模型的优缺点,为地表水和地下水耦合模拟研究提供了很好参考。     

地下水资源评价中降水量的时间序列--马尔可夫模型

降水量的预报精度对以其为直接或间接补给源的地下水资源评价具有重要的影响，将时间序列方法与随机过程离散状态的马尔可夫链理论相结合，提出了时间序列－马尔可夫模型以预报大气降水量，模型根据降水序列的特征，采用一维非平衡时间序列模型进行预测，预测结果总体效果较好，但峰值点处误差较大，为了提高模型对波动性较大随机变量的预报精度，利用随机过程马尔可夫概率状态转移矩阵预报方法对其预测值进行二次拟合，实例计算表明，时间序列－马尔可夫模型预报效果良好，预报精度明显高于单一的时间序列模型精度，该结果拓宽了时间序列预报模型的应用范围，且对以大气降水为最终补给源的地下水资源评价具有重要的实用价值及理论意义。     

西部干旱、半干旱地区小城镇发展模式的探讨

从西部干旱、半干旱区小城镇发展现状入手,以该地区城镇化进程和水平为出发点,通过将该地区小城镇与全国其他地区小城镇的对比,总结出当前西部干旱、半干旱地区小城镇的不足及其发展模式,并提出新时期小城镇的发展模式为：以带动农村现代化,促进大城市的发展为目标,逐步完善自身职能结构。最后详细阐述了小城镇的多元化发展模式,并以张掖市为例,分析了小城镇发展模式的选择,为西部干旱、半干旱地区小城镇的发展提供思路。     

山区交通通达度测度模型与实证研究

交通发展滞后是制约山区发展的重要因素,定量评估山区交通通达情况对认知山区交通空间格局和进行山区交通开发具有重要的现实意义.在综述国内外交通地理文献的基础上,论文构建了以交通设施技术等级、距离交通枢纽的通行时间和交通线密度3个因子为核心的山区交通通达度测度模型,并引入交通摩擦系数来提高山区交通通达度测算的精度.利用该模型...     

Groundwater Balance and Safe Yield of the coastal aquifer system in NEastern Korinthia, Greece

The northern coastal part of Korinthia prefecture can be characterized as an agrotourism center that has grown and urbanized rapidly. The area is formed of recent unconsolidated material consisting of sands, pebbles, breccias and fine clay to silty sand deposits. These deposits host the main aquifer system of the area, which depends on groundwater as a water resource. Groundwater is the main source for irrigation in the area. A total water volume of 29.2×10⁶–34.3×10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹ was estimated to recharge the aquifer system from direct infiltration of rainfall, streambed infiltration, irrigation return, artificial recharge via flood irrigation and lateral subsurface inflows. The present annual abstraction ranges between 39.2×10⁶ and 44.6×10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹. Groundwater abstraction in dry years exceeds renewable freshwater resources by more than 38%. Approximately 79% of the total abstraction is consumed for agriculture supply. Water balance in the coastal aquifer system is in disequilibrium; a deficit, which ranges from 4.9×10⁶ to 15.4×10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹ exists. The safe yield of the coastal aquifer system has been estimated at 37.1×10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹ for normal hydrological year and 32×10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹ for severely dry hydrological year. The total abstraction is greater than the recharge and the safe yield of the aquifer. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion, seawater intrusion and quality contamination. The integrated water resources management, securing water in the future, should include measures that augment groundwater budget in the coastal aquifer of the study area.     

Data-Driven Predictive Modeling of Mineral Prospectivity Using Random Forests: A Case Study in Catanduanes Island (Philippines)

The Random Forests (RF) algorithm is a machine learning method that has recently been demonstrated as a viable technique for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity, and thus, it is instructive to further examine its usefulness in this particular field. A case study was carried out using data from Catanduanes Island (Philippines) to investigate further (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with few (i.e., <20) mineral occurrences and (b) if RF modeling can handle predictor variables with missing values. We found that RF modeling outperforms evidential belief (EB) modeling of prospectivity for hydrothermal Au–Cu deposits in Catanduanes Island, where 17 hydrothermal Au–Cu prospects are known to exist. Moreover, just like EB modeling, RF modeling allows analysis of the spatial relationships between known prospects and individual layers of predictor data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in predictor data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in EB modeling, missing values are simply represented by maximum uncertainty. Therefore, the RF algorithm is a potentially useful method for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity in regions with few (i.e., <20) occurrences of mineral deposits of the type sought. However, further testing of the method in other regions with few mineral occurrences is warranted to fully determine its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.     

中国西南山地喀斯特与非喀斯特森林的生物量与生产力比较

利用1989—1993年中国西南5省区(广西、贵州、云南、四川包括重庆、湖南)森林清查资料,估算和分析了1968个样点森林的生物量和净第一性生产力特征与空间分布格局,重点比较喀斯特森林与非喀斯特森林生物量与生产力的差异.结果表明:中国西南地区森林平均总生物量为148.66 t.hm-2,净第一性生产力达到9.64 t.hm-2.a-1;喀斯特森林的生物量(124.33 t.hm-2)小于非喀斯特森林(163.48 t.hm-2),而喀斯特森林的生产力(8.67t.hm-2.a-1)总体上也小于非喀斯特森林(9.56 t.hm-2.a-1),但在不同的省份中存在差异;作为西南山地的主要森林类型,亚热带和热带的针叶林与山地针叶林、亚热带常绿阔叶林和常绿落叶阔叶混交林中,喀斯特森林的平均生物量(122.95 t.hm-2)和生产力(8.77t.hm-2.a-1)也均低于非喀斯特森林(分别为152.88 t.hm-2和9.92 t.hm-2.a-1);天然林和人工林中的生物量和生产力同样表现出喀斯特森林低于非喀斯特森林的特征.这种差异说明喀斯特生境严酷,在相同的生物气候条件下,喀斯特土层的浅薄和地下水的渗漏胁迫限制了喀斯特森林的生长和生物量积累.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区流域系统侵蚀与产沙关系

从长期来看流域系统的侵蚀与产沙基本可以达到平衡,泥沙输移比约等于１。但次降雨或分年度泥沙输移比有相当大的变幅,在短期内会经常存在泥沙的滞留和滞留的泥沙被重新锓蚀搬运,而出现泥沙输移比小于１和大于１的情况。这主要与降雨的空间分布和洪峰增减幅度及径流深度增减幅度密切相关。流域系统次降雨泥沙输移比及各级沟道含沙水流的挟沙能力变化可用单位面积上洪峰增减幅度变化时暴雨洪水的剪切力的转化机制来描述。     

基于Landsat时间序列遥感数据的华北平原农田火烧迹地检测与制图

以河南省漯河市、周口市和驻马店市交界处为研究区,基于2000年10月～2011年12月间的101幅图像,采用谐波模型和断点识别算法拟合Landsat时间序列实现对过火像元的检测,并将结果与目视解译结果、MODIS火烧迹地产品MCD64A1检测结果对比进行精度分析。结果表明:①随着燃烧面积指数BAI (Burned Area Index)异常值阈值增大,焚烧火点误判误差减小,漏判误差增大,火烧迹地制图的总体精度先增大后减小;②当BAI异常值阈值2.9×RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)时,该方法总体精度达到最高93.25%,MCD64A1产品总体精度为70.25%;③本文算法的漏判误差和误判误差相对平衡,而MCD64A1产品的漏判误差远大于误判误差。研究表明,相比MODIS火烧迹地产品数据,Landsat时间序列火烧迹地法可更有效地检测农田火烧迹地。     

Desertification status mapping in Muttuma Watershed by using Random Forest Model

Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales, Australia. Desertification vulnerability index was developed using climate, terrain, vegetation, soil and land quality indices to identify environmentally sensitive areas for desertification. Random Forest Model(RFM) was used to predict the different desertification processes such as soil erosion, salinization and waterloggin...