Bitumen Prices and Structural Changes in North American Crude Oil Markets

In an earlier report, changes in bitumen prices at Hardesty, Alberta, Canada, were modeled as the responses to changes in monthly prices of Hardesty light/medium crude oil for the period 2000–2006 with a simple error correction econometric model. This note re-examines that price relationship for the period 2009–2014. Over the period 2006–2014, there was also rapid growth in North American light oil production from low-permeability carbonate, sandstone, and shale reservoirs. During that period, Canadian raw bitumen production grew by more than 12% per year and there was significant geographical diversification in its markets. Results of the statistical analysis showed that the change in the dynamic relationships between bitumen prices and Hardesty light oil prices probably reflected, in part, the maturation of bitumen markets and closer integration with North American light oil markets. The analysis also examines the dynamic relationships between bitumen prices and West Texas Intermediate and Brent international benchmark crude oil prices. Ideally, if bitumen prices are found to be closely related to a widely traded benchmark crude oil, the benchmark crude oil price forecasts could be used as a basis for predicting bitumen prices. However, neither of international benchmark crude oils tested had high explanatory power.     

中国原油进口地域格局演进分析

随着能源消耗的增加,中国能源缺口不断扩大,原油进口依存度也随之攀升,实施进口来源多元化战略的重要性日益突出,而多元化战略应该确立在总体把握石油进口地域格局的基础之上。本文以1997～2008年间中国原油进口源地分布入手,分析了此时间段内进口原油的地域格局、原油进口格局的演变特征及演变轨迹,探讨了影响原油贸易地域格局的主要因素与原油贸易空间格局的形成与演进机制,为进一步探索其演化趋势,更好地实施进口多元化战略奠定基础。     

Cold-region environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline and their management

The cold-region eco-environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP) in northern Northeast China are in disequilibrium due to the combined influences of pronounced climate warming and intensive anthropogenic activities.This is evidenced by the sharp areal reduction and northward shifting of the boreal forests,shrinking of wetlands,enhancing of soil erosion,accelerating degradation of permafrost and deteriorating of cold-region eco-environments.The degradation of permafrost plays an important role as an internal drive in the eco-environmental changes.Many components of the cold-region eco-environments,including frozen ground,forests,wetlands and peatlands,forest fires and "heating island effect" of rapid urbanization,are interdependent,interactive,and integrated in the boreal ecosystems.The construction and long-term operation of the CRCOP system will inevitably disturb the cold-region environments along the pipeline.Therefore,a mandatory and carefully-elaborated environ-mental impact statement is indispensable for the proper mitigation of the ensued adverse impacts.Proper management,effective protection and practical rehabilitation of the damaged cold-region environments are a daunting,costly and long-term commitment.The recommended measures for protection and restoration of permafrost eco-environments along the pipeline route include adequate investigation,assessment and monitoring of permafrost and cold-region environments,compliance of pipeline construction and operation codes for environmental management,proper and timely re-vegetation,returning the cultivated lands to forests and grasslands,and effective mitigation of forest fire hazards.     

基于运费最低的中国原油管道网络空间优化研究

以规模及运量最大的中国东部原油管网为研究对象,选取2009年37条管道和满洲里-大庆铁路、20个主要油田及港口（口岸）、32个主要炼厂,建立原油供需平衡表,基于运费最低并考虑到不同管径管道的运输成本差异,结合空间分析与线性规划的研究思路与方法,对东部原油管网进行空间优化研究及分类评价。结果表明：（1）2009年中国东部原油管网优化运费较实际运费减少了34.5%,表明原油管网总体流通效率不高,具有较大提升空间;（2）东北地区各管道流通状况相对较好;华北地区管道均为负荷不足或无负荷类型,流通效率不高;华东地区黄淮分区的多数管道为负荷不足类型,仅有两条百万吨流量管道为良好类型,长江中下游分区的甬沪宁线和仪金线为超负荷类型。     

中国石油资源流动源—汇系统空间格局特征

以中国石油(特指原油) 资源流动为研究对象,把中国省级行政单元抽象为石油资源流动节点,从1985-2009 年中选取5 个特征时点,根据各流动节点石油自给能力及流动比率,将各特征时点的石油流动省份划分为源地、汇地和交流地3 大流动职能类型,并将主要石油进口港(含陆上口岸) 作为进口石油源地;分别利用重心和标准差椭圆分析源地系统和汇地系统空间分布格局的集中与离散趋势,得出中国石油资源流动源—汇系统空间格局的位移和形变特征.结果表明：① 源地系统重心位于中国东偏北部,在经历了1985-1995 年的西北向移动后,1995-2009 年大幅向西南偏移,南北方向的移动速度快于东西方向;汇地系统重心偏于中国中东部,移动幅度相对较小,1985-1999 年呈南北向移动、1999-2003 年呈东西向移动,最终快速向西南方向偏移.② 从标准差椭圆分析来看,源地系统的空间分布先趋于分散后又趋于集中,由东北—西南的分布格局逐渐趋向于西北—东南的分布格局;汇地系统空间分布格局相对较为稳定,小幅极化后略趋分散,呈较为稳定的东北—西南分布.③ 中国石油资源流动的平均方向由东北—西南向偏转为南北向,平均运距呈下降趋势,主导流向由东北—西南向逐步转变为西北—东南向和东西向输流并存.     

复杂网络理论下世界原油贸易空间格局演进研究

依据世界原油贸易数据,以复杂网络理论为基础,结合地理学的区域分析方法,勾勒出世界原油贸易空间结构,并比较了区域间节点、出、入度及权重值的差异。利用熵值分析了网络的均质性,并对世界原油贸易空间结构进行了模拟。研究表明:①尽管世界原油贸易空间格局的节点增幅不大,但随时间推移,节点的度与权重值大幅增加,即世界原油贸易范围及效应在逐渐加大;②通过对节点、出、入度及权重值的比较,揭示了不同区域在世界原油贸易空间格局中的职能差异;③结构熵、权重熵的测定与世界原油贸易空间格局的模拟均表明世界原油贸易空间格局网络的有序性,世界原油空间格局是非均质的。多元化不等于均质化,贸易主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。     

基于复杂网络理论的中美原油进口空间格局演进比较

依据中美原油进口源地数据,运用网络分析法,比较了中美原油进口贸易空间结构的演化轨迹与特征。研究表明,相同的认知活动使两国的原油进口策略取向变得一致。1993年后,美中原油进口来源国数量有着几乎相同的增长趋势;但美国原油进口权重基本趋于平稳,中国原油进口权重基本处于上升通道中,同时中美贸易联系不仅存在强度上的差异,分区域的强度次序也存在重大差异;美国原油进口空间格局的权重熵经历了由高到低的演变,权重熵的比较揭示出1993年之后中国原油进口系统有序性要低于美国。以上结果表明追求多元化不应以均质化为目标,不同的主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合自己的区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。     

氧化锌纳米材料的合成、结构表征、光学及催化性能

以Zn(Ac)2.2H2O和NaOH为原料,十六烷基三甲基溴化胺(CTAB)为表面活性剂,采用水热法合成了不同形态的氧化锌。利用X-ray粉末衍射仪(Powder X-ray Diffractometer,XRD)、红外光谱仪(Infra-red Spectrometer,IR)、场发射扫描电镜表征所合成材料的结构和形貌。用紫外可见光度计、荧光光度计研究了氧化锌的光学性能。为了评估氧化锌的催化性能,进行了纳米氧化锌对乙酸和正丁醇合成乙酸正丁酯的催化实验。实验结果表明,纳米氧化锌对酯化反应具有很好的催化作用,催化活性与颗粒大小有一定的关系。     

Relationship between ponding and topographic factors along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline in permafrost regions

The original landform along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP, line 2) was disturbed during installation of pavement for the pipeline. Forest and vegetation coverage is dense, and runoff develops along the pipe. Since the operation of the CRCOP(line 2) began in 2018, ponding has appeared on both sides of the pipeline. If there is no drainage,ponding can hardly dissipate, due to the low permeability of the permafrost layer. With the supply of surface flow and the transportation of oil at positive temperatures, ponding promotes an increase in temperature and changes the boundary thermal conditions of the pipeline. Meanwhile, when the ponding freezes and thaws, frost heave threatens operational safety of the pipeline. Furthermore, the ponding can affect the thermal condition of line 1. In this paper, the distribution of ponding along the CRCOP was obtained by field investigation. The type and cause of ponding were summarized, and the catchment and stream order were extracted by the Digital Elevation Model(DEM). According to the statistical results in attributes for topographic factors, it is known that ponding along the pipeline is relative to elevation, slope, aspect, and the Topographic Wetness Index(TWI). Water easily accumulates at altitudes of 300-450 m, slopes within 3°-5°, aspect in the northeast or south, TWI within 13-16, flow direction in north-east-south, and flow length within 90-150 km. This paper proposes a theoretical basis for the cause and characteristics of ponding along the pipeline.     

气候变暖对宁夏引黄灌区水稻生产的影响

对宁夏引黄灌区10个测站1961\_2004年水稻生长发育期5～9月的气温进行分析,结果表明,宁夏引黄灌区水稻生长期的气候明显变暖。ｔ检验表明,5～9月日平均气温的突变发生在1993年,突变后的气温比突变前升高了0.8℃。在水稻生长发育各阶段,气温都有所升高,但没有超过水稻生长发育的适宜温度范围。引黄灌区水稻的温度敏感系数在5月、7~9月上旬为正值,尤其在7月下旬至8月中旬最大,此阶段气候变暖对水稻生产有利,6月、9月中下旬为负值,气候变暖对水稻生产有不利影响。气候变暖为高产品种的引进创造了条件,降低了水稻对温度变化的敏感性,使水稻单产变率减小,保证了水稻的高产稳产。就宁夏引黄灌区而言,气候变暖对水稻单产的贡献为2.51％。     

论壮族地区的水稻种植与环境适应的关系

水稻种植过程中,常具有浓厚的环境适应的特征。分布在不同地貌区的壮族是典型的稻作民族,已充分意识到所在地区气候、土壤等自然地理环境对水稻种植的深刻影响。为适应自然地理环境,发挥最大的生产效益,山居壮族多选择种植生长期较长、耐寒、耐肥的粳稻为主;在平原丘陵地区的壮族则以种植生长期短的籼稻居多;为适应岩溶山区干旱少水、不利于灌溉的环境,当地壮族则多种陆稻,但由于陆稻口感不佳以及所在地区人地关系由宽趋紧,导致陆稻在壮族种植结构中的地位不断下降。此外,壮族在生活中对水稻用途的定位,也影响到水稻品种的选择与种植。     

旱作水稻稻茬小麦增产栽培技术研究

水稻稻茬小麦因水稻收获晚、适耕期短、整地困难、播种质量差等因素的影响,很难适期播种,加之水稻稻茬土壤板化,理化性状差,导致稻茬小麦的单产长期低而不稳,在200kg上下徘徊。为改变这一现状,我们提出了以旱作水稻替代水稻,并进行试验研究。结果表明,旱作水稻比水稻早熟10天,并能调整土壤理化性状,旱作水稻稻茬小麦比水稻稻茬小麦增产100kg。     

东北地区水稻扩张的海拔优势区间分析

及时掌握水稻的时空分布信息,对调整和优化农业生产结构至关重要。论文利用综合考虑植被物候和地表水变化的水稻自动制图方法,结合海拔、地表水体因素开展2001—2017年东北地区水稻分布的时空演变研究。通过889个地面调研点位对水稻分类结果验证,总体精度达90.66%,Kappa系数为0.8128。研究表明:① 21世纪初,东北地区水稻种植面积呈先略减后持续增加的趋势,2017年水稻种植面积达2001年的2.13倍。其中,水稻扩张面积的60%分布在三江平原,30%分布在松嫩平原,下辽河平原仅占不足5%。水稻扩张的海拔优势区间在200 m范围内,随着海拔的上升水稻扩张与地表水关系越来越密切。② 三江平原内,水稻扩张幅度在海拔30~70 m范围内逐渐增加,使优势区间从相对高度70 m缩减至40 m内,也使得分布优势逐渐趋向于距地表水体较远的区域。而松嫩平原和下辽河平原水稻种植分布的海拔优势区间始终分别保持在相对高度100 m、40 m内。③ 三江平原水稻的集中分布和急剧扩张,使水稻分布优势逐渐趋向于距地表水体远的区域,这将对地下水带来更大的压力;而松嫩平原水稻分布受地表水体影响较大,分布优势随着距地表水体距离的增加而减小。研究可为农业部门评估水资源承载力、保障农业可持续发展提供数据支撑及理论参考。     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

东北地区水稻冷害气候风险度和经济脆弱度及其分区研究

应用历年气象、水稻产量资料和冷害指标,分析东北地区水稻低温冷害发生的温度条件、气候频率和风险概率,建立了水稻冷害气候风险度模式,将东北地区分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5级水稻冷害气候风险度区.在气候风险性分析的基础上,考虑各地水稻冷害减产率、总产量和面积比例等经济损失因素,建立水稻生产对低温冷害反应的经济脆弱度模式...     

云南地区稻作品种多样性的分布中心及其与生态、文化因素之间的联系

生态和文化因素对农作物品种的选育和分布起着十分重要的影响。本研究利用稻作品种的空间分布数据库,探讨了云南地区稻作品种多样性的分布中心及其与生态、文化因素之间的联系。研究结果表明,云南地区稻作品种多样性的分布中心主要集中在滇南、滇西南和滇东南地区。这可能与当地温暖、湿润的气候和特有的稻作文化有关。对滇南多样性分布中心而言,傣族和哈尼族的稻作文化起着重要影响;对滇西南多样性分布中心而言,起重要影响的稻作文化主要来自傣族,景颇族和拉祜族;而对滇东南分布中心而言,苗族、瑶族和壮族的稻作文化则起着相对更为重要的影响。传统文化不仅促进了稻作品种的选育,同时,丰富的稻作品种也有利于稻作文化的保存和延续。     

Thermal influence of ponding and buried warm-oil pipelines on permafrost: a case study of the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline

Buried pipelines are widely used for transporting oil in remote cold regions. However, the warm oil can induce considerable thermal influence on the surrounding frozen soils and result in severe maintenance problems. This paper presents a case study of the thermal influence of ponding and buried warm-oil pipelines on permafrost along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) in Northeast China. Since its operation in 2011, the operation of the warm-oil pipelines has led to rapid warming and thawing of the surrounding permafrost and development of sizable ponding along the pipeline route,which, in return, exacerbates the permafrost degradation. A field study was conducted along a 400-km long segment of the CRCOP in permafrost regions of Northeast China to collect the location and size information of ponding. A two-dimensional heat transfer model coupled with phase change was established to analyze the thermal influence of ponding and the operation of warm-oil pipelines on the surrounding permafrost. In-situ measured ground temperatures from a monitoring site were obtained to validate the numerical model. The simulation results show that ponding accelerates the development of the thaw bulb around the pipeline. The maximum thaw depth below the pipeline increases from 4 m for the case without ponding to 9 m for the case with ponding after 50 years of operation, and ponding directly above the pipe induces the maximum thaw depth. Engineering measures should be adopted to control the size or even eliminate surface water-rich ponding for the long-term performance of buried warm-oil pipelines.     

Heavy Metal Concentrations in Rice from Guangzhou and Associated Health Risks

In recent years, excessive levels of cadmium (Cd) in rice have been a focus of attention of the government, the public and scientists. In Guangzhou rice is a staple food for most citizens and understanding the level of Cd and other heavy metals in rice is important for food safety and health. Consumers in different income groups purchase rice from various sources at different prices but we know little about the relationship between price and safety. At the same time, the presence of zinc (Zn) can also affect the level of risk from Cd in rice and so affect food safety. This study offers a preliminary exploration of interactions between price, safety and nutritional quality. 125 rice samples were collected from markets and from the homes of high-income, middle-income and low-income groups in Guangzhou city, and were tested for the content of Cd and Zn. The results showed that 25.6% of the rice samples contained Cd in excess of the national standard, with higher levels of Cd in Indica rice than in Japonica. At the same time, we designed a questionnaire survey for groups with different incomes to assess their exposure to risks from rice with Cd and their perceptions and sources of information about risks. The survey showed that, as a whole, the low-income group faces higher risks from rice with Cd, and that there is strong public demand for scientific information about Cd in rice.     

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China’s rice production is less climate-sensitive.     

极端降水对水稻产量的影响研究综述

极端降水在全球范围内呈现广泛增强的趋势,对农业生态系统的影响不容忽视。水稻作为重要的粮食作物,其产量的年际波动受到极端降水的影响,然而其响应机理和时空敏感性尚未厘清。论文总结了极端降水在水稻主产区的时空格局及对产量的影响程度,梳理了极端降水对水稻产量的生理、化学和物理过程的影响机制,对比分析了多个主流方法(统计模型和作物过程模型)的输入数据和应用上的优缺点。结果表明,极端降水增加1%导致水稻减产0.02%~0.5%,主要通过增加养分流失和造成淹水胁迫等途径。然而当前研究仍难以明确水稻产量如何响应于极端降水的不同特征值(强度、频次、持续时间等)及其敏感性的时空差异,尚未完善极端降水对水稻各产量组成的影响机理,同时缺乏作物模型与统计模型等相结合的研究方法,造成水稻产量预测的不确定性。建议未来相关研究应加强田间观测、控制性实验与模型改进,定量解析极端降水对产量的影响机理,促进模型—数据融合,提高数据精度以更好地模拟极端降水事件下的水稻产量,为优化当前稻作系统和建立气候智能型农业奠定理论基础。