A Review of Louisiana Drilling and Production Activity, 1980–2011

Louisiana plays an important role in domestic oil and natural gas production, and in 2012 ranked sixth in oil production and third in gas production in the United States. Conventional oil and gas production in Louisiana has been declining steadily over the past four decades, while unconventional gas production has seen spectacular growth in recent years, effectively doubling the state’s natural gas output over three years. The structural changes impacting Louisiana’s oil and gas industry are complex and dynamic, and to better understand the relationships between activity drivers, a review of drilling and production data between 1980 and 2011 is performed and correlative relationships are developed. Drilling and completion trends, including completion and success rate statistics and drilled footage, are summarized by region. Correlative relationships are established between measured footage and the number of wells drilled, drilling activity, abandonments, and commodity price. We show that drilling activity in North Louisiana is highly responsive to changing oil prices, whereas in South Louisiana, activity is relatively inelastic. Well abandonments are shown to be negatively related to commodity prices. Horizontal, directional, active, idle, and orphaned well inventories are summarized.     

North American Natural Gas: Data Show Supply Problems

Natural gas is increasingly the fuel of choice for domestic and industrial use and for electric power generation. With pipelines in all 50 states, gas now fuels more than one-half of United States homes. Demand for all uses is projected to rise. United States production peaked in 1971, and is in decline. The United States in 2002 imported 15% of its gas from Canada, which amount was 56% of Canada's production. However, Canada's production now also is in decline. Mexico's production declined from 1999 to 2002 against rising demand. Mexico is increasingly a net gas importer from the United States. In both the United States and Canada, intensive drilling is being offset by high depletion rates. Frontiers for more production include deep basin drilling, improved exploration and reservoir development technology, increased coalbed methane exploitation, and access to lands not now accessible because of environmental and other restrictions. Stranded gas in Arctic regions of the United States and Canada offer some potential for additional supplies, but pipeline access is at least five years to ten years or more away. Additional LNG landing facilities are needed, and are planned, but these are several years away in significant numbers. For the immediate future, rationing of available gas by the market mechanism of higher prices seems the only option. In the longer term, it seems North America will be increasingly dependent on LNG.     

A Severance Tax Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Most states levy severance taxes on the value of natural resources when they are severed or extracted from the ground or subsurface. In Louisiana, severance tax on oil and gas production contributes to the majority of mineral revenue in the state, and over the last decade, has ranged between $400 million and $1.1 billion, or between 5 and 9% of annual state revenue. The purpose of this article is to develop a forecast model for severance tax revenue to better understand the severance tax regime and to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. We couple an oil and gas production model with empirical relationships describing historical severance tax receipts to perform the forecast. We demonstrate that oil production correlations are robust, but that in recent years, unconventional gas production from the Haynesville shale has led to a significant departure from historic trends. We estimate that cumulative oil and gas severance tax revenues during 2011–2015 will range from $1.0 to $2.1 billion for oil and $1.3–$1.9 billion for gas. Louisiana is transforming into a gas-producing state, and more attention needs to be paid to tax design and the impact of exemptions on future severance revenue receipts.     

中国10类典型稻田生态系统服务评价

在公开发表数据基础上,本研究评价了全国6大稻作区10类稻田提供的生态系统服务。研究的服务包括稻田初级产品生产、气体调节、氮素转化、土壤有机质累积以及水调节和洪水控制等5项生态系统服务。研究结果显示,稻田谷物产量为4.71–12.18 t ha^-1 y^-1,稻草为4.65–9.79 t ha^-1 y^-1;O2调节量为8.27–19.69 t ha^-1 y^-1,温室气体调节量为-2 .13–19.24 t ha^-1 y^-1 （CO2 当量）;氮素输入量为209.70–513.93 kg N ha^-1 y^-1,输出量为112.87–332.69 kg N ha^-1 y^-1;土壤有机质库变化为0.69–4.88 t C ha^-1 y^-1;水调节量为-19 875–6430 m3 ha^-1 y^-1,洪水控制量为1500 m3 ha^-1 y^-1。研究结果还显示,10类稻田的生态系统服务价值为8605–21 405 美元 ha^-1 y^-1,除了初级产品生产以外的其他生态系统服务价值仅占74%–89%。在施氮量为275–297 kg N ha^-1时,稻田生态系统服务价值相对较高。目前仅以农产品生产来计算稻田生态系统的价值显著低估了稻田生态系统对人类社会的重要性。随着越来越多的森林、草地等转为城市和工业用途,农田特别是稻田生态系统将具有越来越高的生态重要性。农田生态系统农产品生产以外的生态系统服务将受到越来越多的关注。     

中国陆上天然气资源的经济效用影响因素研究(英文)

本文研究了中国陆上天然气经济效用的地质及相关影响因素。主要研究结论如下:天然气勘探开发成本主要与气田(藏)的深度及储盖层的岩性参数相关,开采成本主要受自然地理因素以及相应储层物性参数影响,而气田(藏)丰度、有效厚度、孔隙度、渗透率和气藏类型是影响天然气产量的主要因素。基于上述研究结论,建立了针对投资成本、价格因素和气田经济价值的千米井深日产量计算公式和区域判断标准。根据判别标准,本文分析了中国不同区域且具有指标意义的天然气田(藏)的经济效用,并针对中国天然气产业经济发展提出了相应的结论和建议。     

Experimental Investigations of Single Bubble Rising in Static Newtonian Fluids as a Function of Temperature Using a Modified Drag Coefficient

Natural Resources Research - In the oil production industry, it is of significance to measure and predict the form of multi-phase flow and gas flow that are present within petroleum production and...     

Kansas Energy Sources: A Geological Review

Kansas produces both conventional energy (oil, gas, and coal) and nonconventional (coalbed gas, wind, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and biofuels) and ranks the 22nd in state energy production in the U.S. Nonrenewable conventional petroleum is the most important energy source with nonrenewable, nonconventional coalbed methane gas becoming increasingly important. Many stratigraphic units produce oil and/or gas somewhere in the state with the exception of the Salina Basin in north-central Kansas. Coalbed methane is produced from shallow wells drilled into the thin coal units in southeastern Kansas. At present, only two surface coal mines are active in southeastern Kansas. Although Kansas has been a major exporter of energy in the past (it ranked first in oil production in 1916), now, it is an energy importer.     

尼日尔河三角洲油气工业生产与布局

尼日尔河三角洲油气工业地带,既是非洲最主要的两大油气工业地带之一,也是世界油气工业地带的重要组成部分。尼日尔河三角洲不仅油气资源极为丰富,而且与世界其他地区相比,其油气资源具有独特优势和特点。在分析尼日尔河三角洲油气资源的分布及生产布局特点的基础上,进一步分析其油气炼化工业的发展与布局,对进一步加强中-尼(尼日利亚)油气合作具有重要意义。     

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest, hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between 7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly, producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online over the next 3 years.     

A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana

Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis. Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future.     

Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.     

中国天然气资源流动优势度时空演变特征

引入天然气资源流动优势度概念,对2000-2012年中国天然气资源流动输流地与汇流地优势度进行测算,并对其时空演变及影响因素进行研究,研究表明：① 输流地、汇流地的数量及优势度随时间不断变化,表现出显著的地域差异性。② 输流地优势度集聚性先降低后升高,热点区在西北部区域,空间上表现出向东南—西北方向分布,最后呈现出接近南北方向偏移;汇流地优势度空间上总体上呈现出增加的趋势,热点区在东部区域,空间分布呈现出由西北向东南移动趋势。③ 天然气资源流通条件及产量是输流地优势度空间格局变化主要影响因素;汇流地天然气资源消费、天然气工业及流通条件是汇流地优势度重心空间格局的主要影响因素,并且程度逐渐加强。     

An Analysis of Environmental and Economic Impacts of Fossil Fuel Production in the U.S. from 2001 to 2015

The production and burning of fossil fuels is the primary contributor to CO₂ emissions for the U.S. We assess the impact of producing coal, crude oil, and natural gas on the environment and economic well-being by analyzing state-level data from 2001 to 2015. Our findings show that coal production has led to more CO₂ emissions and no significant benefit to economic well-being. Crude oil production has a non-significant impact on CO₂ emissions but is related to a lower poverty rate, a higher median household income, and a higher employment rate. Natural gas withdrawals have a positive impact on median household income. We discuss these findings in the context of current U.S. energy policies and then provide directions for future research.     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

Water Footprint Assessment for Coal-to-Gas in China

Natural Resources Research - To increase its domestic gas production and achieve cleaner end-use utilization of its coal resources, China is actively promoting its coal-to-gas (CTG) industry....     

Prospect Analysis and Hydrocarbon Reservoir Volume Estimation in an Exploration Field,Shallow Offshore Depobelt,Western Niger Delta,Nigeria

Natural Resources Research - The daunting challenge in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the face of continual rise in the world’s energy consumption has long been how to...     

Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approximates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

“青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程”工艺技术与安全生产分析（续完）

青海盐湖资源丰富,从单一钾肥产品向石油天然气与盐湖化工结合的下游产品发展,生产氢氧化钾、碳酸钾、乙炔、氯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、合成氨和尿素,实现循环经济和综合利用,"青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程",势在必行。运用安全系统工程的方法,分析了所采用的工艺技术以及生产设施设备在项目投产运行后存在的主要危险、有害因素及其产生的危险、危害后果;提出了消除、预防或减弱危险性、危害程度的对策措施,以实现项目的本质安全和安全生产。     

A Trapezoidal Three-Dimensional Model for Gas Extraction Based on Shapes of Caved Overlying Strata and Numerical Calculation

Gas emission from the working face in a gas-bearing coal seam impairs safe production. Especially in the coal face, influenced by mining, pressure-relief gas in adjacent seams flows into the working face through the goaf. Moreover, caved overlying strata in different regions show differences in pore and seepage characteristics. Thus, the caving of overlying strata in the goaf of a working face was explored by carrying out physical similarity simulation. Then, based on the characteristics of the geometric shapes of caved overlying strata after mining, a trapezoidal three-dimensional model for gas extraction was established. According to the calculation result, the parameters of field high-level boreholes were optimized. Then, the controllability of gas concentration at the working face after gas extraction was assessed by applying statistical process control. The result showed that after the observed surface of the physical similarity model was lightened, it was more favorable for conducting the test. Moreover, the maximum gas concentration in the goaf was negatively correlated with the diameter of high-level boreholes and the negative pressure for gas extraction. A statistical process control chart revealed that the gas concentrations at the working face were safe after gas extraction based on high-level boreholes, which also validated the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

     

A Royalty Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Louisiana receives royalty revenue when minerals are produced on state-owned lands and water bottoms, federal properties within the state, and offshore fields underlying federal and state jurisdiction within 3–6 nautical miles from the coastline. Royalty revenue on oil and gas production has averaged $465 million per year and has contributed 3–7% of the state general revenue over the past decade. The purpose of this article is to develop a royalty revenue forecast model to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. Producing fields are evaluated within a probabilistic framework to capture the uncertainty associated with future capital outlays and operational changes, and a discovery model is used to generate production from fields expected to be discovered in the future. The forecasts are combined with commodity price scenarios and royalty rate assumptions to generate a royalty revenue outlook for the state. We estimate that cumulative royalty revenue during 2012–2017 will range from $704 million to $1,408 million for oil production and from $286 million to $1,145 million for gas production for commodity prices of 60–120 $/bbl and 2–8 $/Mcf. At $80/bbl and $4/Mcf, cumulative royalty receipts from 2012 to 2017 are estimated at $1,510 million.