Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

An explanation for USGS Station 6 record, 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake: a caustic induced by a sedimentary wedge

Summary. The largest earthquake-induced acceleration yet recorded occurred at the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Strong Motion Array Station 6 during the 1979 October 15, Imperial Valley, California earthquake. This large acceleration (1.74 g, vertical component) is anomalously strong considering the low magnitude of the event ( M = 6.4), and the fact that receivers in the immediate neighbourhood of Station 6 recorded much lower accelerations. Previous studies of the records by other investigators have suggested a number of explanations for the anomaly, several of which implicate the near-receiver geological structure.
We present a detailed time and frequency domain analysis of the acceleration records at Stations 6, 5, 7, 8 and Diff Array to suggest that the anomalous acceleration is the consequence of the focusing of the incoming body waves by the lens-like effect of the sedimentary wedge between Imperial Valley and Brawley faults. The analyses include a detailed comparison of observed particle motions between neighbouring stations. Narrow band-pass filtered particle motions at Station 6 reveal the interaction of multipath arrivals as well as the frequency-dependent interference between them. Three-dimensional ray tracing experiments confirm the fact that the faulted sedimentary wedge is capable of focusing P -waves near Station 6. The interpretation that best combines theoretical and observed results is that amplification was due to the formation of an elliptic umbilic caustic with focus near the surface.     

Kinematic multistation discriminator between local quarry blasts and earthquakes

It has long been known that S waves on seismograms of local explosions are often accompanied by strong low-frequency, low-velocity, Rg surface wave trains, often significantly diminished for earthquakes. We utilize this fact to construct a new formal discriminator between earthquakes and explosions by measuring the S -surface-wave group velocity. The method is based on analysing the velogram; that is, the display of the envelope of ground motion versus group velocity V = R/T , where R is the epicentral distance and T  the traveltime. We examine the distribution of seismic energy in time and space using envelopes of records from the Israel Seismic Network (ISN), from which we compute the velograms and observe differences in the velograms of quarry blasts and earthquakes. The data include 143 seismic events occurring in three areas (Galilee, Dead Sea, and Gilad) monitored by the ISN; the magnitude range is M _L = 1.0–2.8 at distances of 15–310 km. From the velograms we measure the group velocity, V _{m s} , within the 1–4 km s⁻¹ range at which the velogram reaches its maximum for each available station. The resulting V _{m s} (R) function is closely fitted by the empirical relationship a + b  ln  R , with a and b coefficients varying from event to event. A simple linear function c = b + 0.33a at a threshold C = 0.69 completely separates ( a,b ) pairs for the 67 Galilee events, and, for the 76 remaining events, one earthquake and four explosions are wrongly classified. After data validation and application of the Fisher linear discriminator, adapted to the events from Galilee, only two misidentified events remain for the whole data set.     

On the linear relation between mb and Ms for discrimination between explosions and earthquakes

Summary. The statistical capability of the m _b: M _s discriminant for the discrimination of earthquake and explosion populations is examined by application of discriminant functions to a group of 83 explosions and 72 earthquakes in Eurasia. Equations are derived for the probability that an event is an earthquake or an explosion. The positive sign of DIS in the decision index equation, DIS _i = 34.3383 – 11.9569 mb _t + 7.1161 M _si , indicates that the event i is an earthquake. Its negative sign indicates that event i is an explosion. The probability of correct classification for an event, P _i , is related to its DIS _i value, by P _i = [1-exp (DIS _i )]⁻¹, where a large, positive DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an earthquake and a large, negative DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an explosion. The discrimination line M _s = 1.680 m _b– 4.825, or m _b= 0.595 M _s+ 2.872 very successfully separates the explosion population from the earthquake population. The points on this line have an equal chance of being an earthquake or an explosion; moreover, for any event, the distance parallel to the M _s-axis from the point representing that event in the m _b: M _s plane to this line is a measure of the probability for the correct classification of that event.     

Anatomy of a small intraplate earthquake: a dissection of its rupture characteristics using regional data

The magnitude m _bLg 5.0 Mont-Laurier earthquake of 1990 October 19, in Quebec, Canada, was one of the largest to have occurred in eastern North America during the past decade. High-frequency ground motions recorded on regional network instruments exceeded values anticipated for an event of its size by a factor of 3. A commonly favoured explanation for the discrepancy is that the source was a rare 'high-stress' event. In this paper, detailed fault-slip models are derived to fit waveform and spectral characteristics of the regional data. The results establish that the effective rupture stress was normal (about 100 bars), that the fault rupture developed asymmetrically, and that the average slip time for points inside the rupture area (approx. 0.1 s) was significantly less than that associated with the standard Brune (1970) source spectral model. The rupture area developed in at least four distinct episodes, each extending the previously ruptured area. Taken together with similar results for the m _bLg 6.5 Saguenay earthquake of 1988 November, the results indicate that a widely used assumption in hazard analyses, that earthquake spectra are adequately represented by the standard Brune spectral model, is unreliable for the interpretation and prediction of strong ground motion.     

Stress transfer relations among the earthquakes that occurred in Kerman province, southern Iran since 1981

We explore the possible stress triggering relationship of the   M ≥ 6.4  earthquakes that occurred in Kerman Province, southern Iran since 1981. We calculated stress changes due to both coseismic sudden movement in the upper crust and the time-dependent viscous relaxation of the lower crust and/or upper mantle following the event. Four events of   M ≥ 6.4  occurred between 1981 and 2005, on and close to the Gowk fault, show a clear Coulomb stress load to failure relationship. The  2003 M = 6.5  Bam earthquake, however, which occurred approximately 95 km SW of the closest Gowk event, shows a very weak stress relation to preceding earthquakes. The coseismic static stress change at the hypocentre of the Bam earthquake is quite small (∼0.006 bars). The time-dependent post-seismic stress change could be 26 times larger or 7 times lower than that of coseismic static stress alone depending on the choice of viscoelastic crustal model and the effective coefficient of friction. Given the uncertainties in the viscoelastic earth models and the effective coefficient of friction, we cannot confidently conclude that the 2003 Bam event was brought closer to failure through coseismic or post-seismic stress loading. Interestingly, the southern Gowk segment with a similar strike to that of the Bam fault, experienced a stress load of up to 8.3 bars between 1981 and 2003, and is yet to have a damaging earthquake.     

The Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 (M= 6.6): source characteristics and tectonic implications

An analysis of the Zihuatanejo, Mexico, earthquake of 1994 December 10 ( M = 6.6), based on teleseismic and near-source data, shows that it was a normal-faulting, intermediate-depth ( H = 50 ± 5 km) event. It was located about 30 km inland, within the subducted Cocos plate. The preferred fault plane has an azimuth of 130°, a dip of 79° and a rake of −86°. The rupture consisted of two subevents which were separated in time by about 2 s, with the second subevent occurring downdip of the first. The measured stress drop was relatively high, requiring a Δσ of about a kilobar to explain the high-frequency level of the near-source spectra. A rough estimate of the thickness of the seismogenic part of the oceanic lithosphere below Zihuatanejo, based on the depth and the rupture extent of this event, is 40 km.
This event and the Oaxaca earthquake of 1931 January 15 ( M = 7.8) are the two significant normal-faulting, intermediate-depth shocks whose epicentres are closest to the coast. Both of these earthquakes were preceded by several large to great shallow, low-angle thrust earthquakes, occurring updip. The observations in other subduction zones show just the opposite: normal-faulting events precede, not succeed, updip, thrust shocks. Indeed, the thrust events, soon after their occurrence, are expected to cause compression in the slab, thus inhibiting the occurrence of normal-faulting events. To explain the occurrence of the Zihuatanejo earthquake, we note that the Cocos plate, after an initial shallow-angle subduction, unbends and becomes subhorizontal. In the region of the unbending, the bottom of the slab is in horizontal extension. We speculate that the large updip seismic slip during shallow, low-angle thrust events increases the buckling of the slab, resulting in an incremental tensional stress at the bottom of the slab and causing normal-faulting earthquakes. This explanation may also hold for the 1931 Oaxaca event.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

Evidence for different scaling of earthquake source parameters for large earthquakes depending on faulting mechanism

Scaling relationships between seismic moment, rupture length, and rupture width have been examined. For this purpose, the data from several previous studies have been merged into a database containing more than 550 events. For large earthquakes, a dependence of scaling on faulting mechanism has been found. Whereas small and large dip-slip earthquakes scale in the same way, the self-similarity of earthquakes breaks down for large strike-slip events. Furthermore, no significant differences in scaling could be found between normal and reverse earthquakes and between earthquakes from different regions. Since the thickness of the seismogenic layer limits fault widths, most strike-slip earthquakes are limited to rupture widths of between 15 and 30 km while the rupture length is not limited. The aspect ratio of dip-slip earthquakes is similar for all earthquake sizes. Hence, the limitation in rupture width seems to control the maximum possible rupture length for these events. The different behaviour of strike-slip and dip-slip earthquakes can be explained by rupture dynamics and geological fault growth. If faults are segmented, with the thickness of the seismogenic layer controlling the length of each segment, strike-slip earthquakes might rupture connected segments more easily than dip-slip events, and thus could produce longer ruptures than dip-slip events of the same width     

Stress drops, wave spectra and recurrence intervals of great earthquakes — implications of the Etorofu earthquake of 1958 November 6

Summary . The great Etorofu earthquake of 1958 November 6 is characterized by a relatively small aftershock area (70 × 150 km²) and an extremely large felt area. The felt area is more extensive than those of any other large earthquakes which have occurred in the southern Kurile to northern Japan arc since the beginning of this century. The mechanism is a pure thrust fault typical of most great earthquakes in island arcs. A body wave magnitude of m _b = 8.2 is obtained at periods around 6 s using more than 40 observations, although an m _b value of only 7.6–7.7 would be expected empirically from the observed surface wave magnitude of M _s= 8.1–8.2. Both an unusually large felt area and a high m _b indicate a dominance of high-frequency components in the seismic waves. A seismic moment of M _o= 4.4 × 10²⁸ dyne cm is determined from long-period surface waves from which a high stress drop of Δσ = 78 bar is obtained using a relatively small aftershock area. Historic data indicate an anomalously long time interval between the 1958 event and any earlier great earthquake from the same source region. The observed high stress drop can be interpreted as a consequence of this long intervening period through which strain built up. The dominance of the high-frequency seismic waves can then be interpreted as a result of this high stress drop. Stress drops, seismic wave spectra and recurrence intervals of great earthquakes are in this way closely related to each other. The 1958 event may represent a high strength extreme of stochastic fluctuation of fracture strength relevant to great earthquakes.     

Source tomography by simulated annealing using broad-band surface waves and geodetic data: application to the Mw= 8.1 Chile 1995 event

We invert surface-wave and geodetic data for the spatio-temporal complexity of slip during the M _w =8.1 Chile 1995 event by simulated annealing. This quasi-global inversion method allows for a wide exploration of model space, and retains the non-linearity of the source tomography problem. Complex source spectra are obtained from 5 to 45 mHz from first- and second-orbit fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves using an empirical Green's function cross-correlation technique. Coseismic displacement vectors were measured at 10 GPS sites near Antofagasta. They are part of a French-Chilean experiment which monitors the Northern Chile seismic gap. The spectra, together with the geodetic data, are inverted for the moment distribution on a 2-D dipping fault, under the physical constraints of slip positivity and causality. Marginal a posteriori distributions of the model parameters are obtained from several independently inverted solutions. In general, features of the slip model are well resolved. Data are well fitted by a purely unilateral southward rupture with a nearly uniform velocity around 2.5–3.0 km s⁻¹, and a total duration of 65 s. Several regions of moment release were imaged, one near the hypocentre, a major one 80 km south of it and a minor one 160 km south of it. The major patch of moment release seemed to have propagated to relatively shallow depths near the trench, 100 km SSW of the epicentre. The region of major slip is located updip of the 1987, M _w =7.5 earthquake, suggesting a causal relationship. Most of the slip occurred updip of the hypocentre (36 km), but the entire coupled plate interface (20–40 km) ruptured during the Chile 1995 event.     

Effect of 3-D viscoelastic structure on post-seismic relaxation from the 2004 M= 9.2 Sumatra earthquake

The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake profoundly altered the state of stress in a large volume surrounding the ∼1400 km long rupture. Induced mantle flow fields and coupled surface deformation are sensitive to the 3-D rheology structure. To predict the post-seismic motions from this earthquake, relaxation of a 3-D spherical viscoelastic earth model is simulated using the theory of coupled normal modes. The quasi-static deformation basis set and solution on the 3-D model is constructed using: a spherically stratified viscoelastic earth model with a linear stress–strain relation; an aspherical perturbation in viscoelastic structure; a 'static' mode basis set consisting of Earth's spheroidal and toroidal free oscillations; a "viscoelastic" mode basis set; and interaction kernels that describe the coupling among viscoelastic and static modes. Application to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake illustrates the profound modification of the post-seismic flow field at depth by a slab structure and similarly large effects on the near-field post-seismic deformation field at Earth's surface. Comparison with post-seismic GPS observations illustrates the extent to which viscoelastic relaxation contributes to the regional post-seismic deformation.     

Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering

10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.     

A structural model for the seismicity of the Arudy (1980) epicentral area (Western Pyrenees, France)

The Western Pyrenees presents a diffuse and moderate ( M ≤ 5.7) instrumental seismicity. It nevertheless historically suffered from strong earthquakes (I = IX MSK). The seismic sources of these events are not yet clearly identified. We focus on the Arudy (1980) epicentral area ( M = 5.1) and propose here the reactivation of early Cretaceous normal faults of the Iberian margin as a potential source. The late Cretaceous inversion of this basin, first in a left-lateral strike-slip mode and then in a more frontal convergence, resulted in a pop-up geometry. This flower structure attests of the presence of a deep crustal discontinuity.
The present-day geodynamic arrangement suggests that this accident is reactivated in a right lateral mode. This reactivation leads to a strain partitioning between the deep discontinuity that accommodates the lateral component of the motion and shallow thrusts, rooted on this discontinuity. These thrusts accommodate the shortening component of the strain. The distribution of the instrumental seismicity fits well the structural model of the Arudy basin. Whatever the compressive regional context, the structural behaviour of the system explains too the extensive stress tensor determined for the Arudy crisis if we interpret it in terms of strain ellipsoid. Indeed numerical modelling has shown that this concomitant activity of strike-slip and thrust faulting results in an extensive component that can rise 50 per cent of the finite strain.
We identify too a 25–30 km long potential seismic source for the Arudy area. The size of the structure and its potential reactivation in a strike-slip mode suggest that a maximum earthquake magnitude of ∼6.5 could be expected. The extrapolation of this model at the scale of the Western Pyrenees allows to propose other potential sources for major regional historical earthquakes.     

Source investigation of a small event using empirical Green's functions and simulated annealing

We propose a two-step inversion of three-component seismograms that (1) recovers the far-field source time function at each station and (2) estimates the distribution of co-seismic slip on the fault plane for small earthquakes (magnitude 3 to 4). The empirical Green's function (EGF) method consists of finding a small earthquake located near the one we wish to study and then performing a deconvolution to remove the path, site, and instrumental effects from the main-event signal.
The deconvolution between the two earthquakes is an unstable procedure: we have therefore developed a simulated annealing technique to recover a stable and positive source time function (STF) in the time domain at each station with an estimation of uncertainties. Given a good azimuthal coverage, we can obtain information on the directivity effect as well as on the rupture process. We propose an inversion method by simulated annealing using the STF to recover the distribution of slip on the fault plane with a constant rupture-velocity model. This method permits estimation of physical quantities on the fault plane, as well as possible identification of the real fault plane.
We apply this two-step procedure for an event of magnitude 3 recorded in the Gulf of Corinth in August 1991. A nearby event of magnitude 2 provides us with empirical Green's functions for each station. We estimate an active fault area of 0.02 to 0.15 km² and deduce a stress-drop value of 1 to 30 bar and an average slip of 0.1 to 1.6 cm. The selected fault of the main event is in good agreement with the existence of a detachment surface inferred from the tectonics of this half-graben.     

Moment tensor inversion of complex earthquakes

Summary. Moment tensor inversion methods can be applied with success in the determination of source properties of simple earthquakes. However, these methods utilize the assumption of a point source, which is inadequate for modelling many complicated, shallow earthquakes. For complex earthquakes, an inversion using finite faulting models is desirable but the number of parameters involved requires that a good starting model be found or that independent constraints be placed on some of the parameters. A method is presented for low-pass filtering both the data and Green's functions, passing only signals with wavelengths greater than the dimension of the entire fault. The filter tends to smooth complications in the waveforms and allows application of the point source moment tensor inversion. This method is applied to body waves from the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, earthquake, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and to a multiple-point source synthetic model of the San Fernando event. For the Thessaloniki event, although a multiple-source mechanism has been suggested, inversion results before and after filtering were essentially identical, indicating that a point source mechanism is sufficient in modelling the long-period, teleseismic body waves. In the case of the San Fernando earthquake, the point source Green's functions were incapable of simultaneously modelling the P - and SH -waves. Inversion of P -waves alone resulted in extreme parameter resolution problems, but allowed constraint in one axis of the moment tensor and suggested an overall source time function. Inversion of a synthetic San Fernando data set yielded similar results, but allowed an investigation of the shortcomings of the method under controlled circumstances. Although the results may require substantial interpretation, the method presented represents a simple first step in the analysis of complex earthquakes.     

Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California

We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in southern California by determining a ground-motion period parameter  τ _c   and a high-pass filtered displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms recorded at the Southern California Seismic Network stations for earthquakes with M > 4.0. At a given site, we estimate the magnitude of an event from  τ _c   and the peak ground-motion velocity ( PGV ) from Pd . The incoming three-component signals are recursively converted to ground acceleration, velocity and displacement. The displacements are recursively filtered with a one-way Butterworth high-pass filter with a cut-off frequency of 0.075 Hz, and a P -wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs,  τ _c   and Pd are computed. We found the relationship between  τ _c   and magnitude ( M ) for southern California, and between Pd and PGV for both southern California and Taiwan. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motion is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. When the station density is high, the methods can be applied to multistation data to increase the robustness of onsite early warning and to add the regional warning approach. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 s of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.     

1986年冬季中国南极长城站的地震观测

1986年3月30日至12月25日为期271天的冬季地震观测中,中国南极长城站地震台共记录到各种震动3000余次,其中大部分为长城湾冰层破裂产生的微震,4次为南设得兰群岛邻近海域中的浅源地震以及5月7日阿留申群岛发生的8.1级地震和4月14日南桑韦奇群岛发生的6.4级地震。冰震与构造地震具有明显的差异。1986年11月16日的地震记录为分析冰震与构造地震的区别提供了很好的例证。冰震具有初动尖锐、频率高和衰减快的特征。根据初动和波型很容易将冰震与构造地震区分开。