The 2nd century AD earthquake in central Italy: archaeoseismological data and seismotectonic implications

The 2nd century AD earthquake in central Italy is only known by an epigraph that mentions restorations to a damaged weighing-house at the ancient locality of Pagus Interpromium. The available seismic catalogues report this event with the conventional date of 101 AD, a magnitude M _aw of 6.3, and an epicentral location at the village of San Valentino in Abruzzo Citeriore, in the province of Pescara. In order to improve the knowledge of the damage pattern, we gathered all the archaeological data collected during modern excavations at sites located in the area, which were presumably struck by the earthquake. This information is mainly represented by (1) stratigraphic units due to the sudden collapse of buildings over still frequented floors; (2) stratigraphic units demonstrating restoration or re-building of edifices; (3) stratigraphic units formed as the result of the abandonment of sites or of their lack of frequentation for decades or centuries. Only stratigraphic evidence consistent with an earthquake occurrence during the 2nd century AD has been considered. The most recent archaeological material found in a collapsed unit is a coin of Antoninus Pius, dated at 147–148 AD. This may represent a post quem date very close to the occurrence of the earthquake. The gathered information, plus the stratigraphic data that excluded the earthquake occurrence at some sites, has allowed us to roughly delineate an area of possible damage, including the Sulmona Plain and surrounding areas. Comparisons between the possible 2nd century damage distribution and (i) the damage patterns of more recent historical events that have struck the investigated area, (ii) the distribution of virtual intensities obtained by simulating an earthquake having an epicenter in the Sulmona Plain and applying an intensity attenuation relationship and (iii) a shaking scenario obtained by modelling the activation of the major active fault of the Sulmona Plain area (the Mt. Morrone fault) have revealed consistency between the ancient earthquake and the activation of this fault. Since no other historical events can be attributed to this active fault, we conclude that the time that has elapsed since the last fault activation should be in the order of 1,850 years, i.e. a time span that is very close to the recurrence interval of Apennine seismogenic sources. Moreover, considering the fault length, the causative source may be responsible for earthquakes with M up to 6.6–6.7. The comparison between the presumed 2nd century damage and the shaking scenario suggests that the magnitude mentioned is consistent with the presumed effects of the ancient earthquake. Finally, considering that Sulmona (the most important town in the region investigated) is located in the middle of the Mt. Morrone fault hanging wall, we consider it as the probable epicentral area. Therefore, to summarise the information on the 2nd century AD earthquake, we can conclude that (i) it occurred shortly after 147–148 AD; (ii) a magnitude M _w 6.6–6.7 can be attributed to it and (iii) the probable macroseismic epicentral area was Sulmona.     

中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

Evidence for pre-seismic crustal movement in China and Japan

Some recent Chinese observations on precursory crustal movements detected by geodetic measurements such as short-range levelling or base-line survey across the active fault corroborate the three gamma phases model of Fujita and Fujii: Gamma 1 phase is pre-slip along the imminent faulting, gamma 2 is coseismic slip and gamma 3 is post-slip along the main or subsidiary faulting after an earthquake. Typical of these are the results of short-range levelling across the earthquake fault that ruptured during the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M_s= 7.8). Associated with the occurrence of the Tangshan earthquake or the subsequent Ninghe earthquake (M_s= 6.9), remarkable gamma 2 phases were observed. At this same location abnormal gamma 1 or gamma 3 phases were detected from the Lulong 1982 earthquake (M_s= 6.2) that originated from the north end of the Tangshan Fault and was one of the aftershocks of the Tangshan earthquake. These phases are interpreted by analogy with the recent experimental results of stick-slip motion of the frictional sliding of rock.     

An early first-century earthquake in the Dead Sea

This article examines a report in the 27th chapter of the Gospel of Matthew in the New Testament that an earthquake was felt in Jerusalem on the day of the crucifixion of Jesus of Nazareth. We have tabulated a varved chronology from a core from Ein Gedi on the western shore of the Dead Sea between deformed sediments due to a widespread earthquake in 31 BC and deformed sediments due to an early first-century earthquake. The early first-century seismic event has been tentatively assigned a date of 31 AD with an accuracy of ±5 years. Plausible candidates include the earthquake reported in the Gospel of Matthew, an earthquake that occurred sometime before or after the crucifixion and was in effect ‘borrowed’ by the author of the Gospel of Matthew, and a local earthquake between 26 and 36 AD that was sufficiently energetic to deform the sediments at Ein Gedi but not energetic enough to produce a still extant and extra-biblical historical record. If the last possibility is true, this would mean that the report of an earthquake in the Gospel of Matthew is a type of allegory.     

Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake in Northern Japan (magnitude 8.1, Sept. 25, 2003) were predicted 6 and 7 months in advance, respectively. The physical basis of RTP can be summed up as follows: An earthquake is generated by two interacting processes in a fault network: an accumulation of energy that the earthquake will release and a rise of instability triggering this release. Energy is carried by the stress field, instability is carried by the difference between the stress and strength fields. Both processes can be detected and characterized by “premonitory” patterns of seismicity or other relevant fields. Here, we consider an ensemble of premonitory seismicity patterns. RTP methodology is able to reconstruct these patterns by tracing their sequence backwards in time. The principles of RTP are not specific to earthquakes and may be applicable to critical transitions in a wide class of hierarchical non-linear systems.     

Observations from the 12 October 1992 Dahshour earthquake in Egypt

An earthquake of local magnitude 5.3 (duration magnitudeM _d ) on the Richter Scale occurred at Dahshour, 18 km south of Cairo, Egypt, on Monday, 12 October 1992 at 3:09 pm (local time). Numerous aftershocks followed the main event during the following weeks with magnitude up to 4.3. The earthquake occurred in an area that has had no recent seismic activity, and affected many cities in Egypt. Many buildings and monuments were severely damaged or collapsed. Modern concrete skeletal structures suffered minor nonstructural damage. Earthquake physical damage was estimated at about one billion U.S. Dollars. The severity of the damage was mainly due to poor construction materials and detailing, aging, inferior workmanship, and inadequate maintenance. Egypt was generally considered to be an area of moderate seismic activity. In 1989, earthquake provisions were first introduced in the Egyptian Code of Practice for Reinforced Concrete Structures only. The earthquake clearly showed the urgent need for an assessment and rehabilitation program to mitigate seismic risk hazard in existing structures. In addition, future development planning, and earthquake preparedness strategies should implement lessons learned from the event. In this paper, an overview discussion about the observations from the 12 October earthquake is presented.     

Intensity field of the 19 June 1975 Gargano (Southern Italy) earthquake

Many moderate events reported by Italian earthquake catalogues (either historical or recent) are listed with an epicentral intensity derived from intensitymagnitude relationships or evaluated based on preliminary sources. Contradictions may arise among different catalogues when the effects of a given earthquake are not assessed through a specific macroseismic study as each catalogue generally uses its own criteria for evaluating the intensity. In this paper we present the case of the June 19 1975 earthquake, a M_L = 5.1 (ING seismological bulletin) event that occurred in the Gargano area (southern Italy). The intensity reported by the ING catalogue is VIII MCS (estimated from magnitude), that reported by the NT4.1 catalogue is VI MCS, while the PFG catalogue does not report an intensity. The case of this event is well representative of a period during which macroseismic studies were not undertaken systematically in Italy. In this paper we reassess the macroseismic intensity of this event using procedures implemented and routinely used at ING.     

Vertical acceleration effect on landsides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 triggered extensive throwing-pattern landslides in the area within or near the seismic faults. The resultant landslides from this earthquake brought to the fore the effect of vertical earthquake acceleration on landslide occurrence. The pseudostatic analysis and the dynamic response on landslide stability due to the Wenchuan earthquake are studied with the Chengxi (West Town) catastrophic landslide used as a case study. The results show that the epicenter distance is an important factor which affects the vertical acceleration and thus the stability of landslide. Also, the vertical acceleration was found to have a significant impact on the FOS of landslide if the earthquake magnitude is quite large. Within the seismic fault, the amplitude effect of vertical acceleration is very dominant with the FOS of landslide, for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative, having a variation of 25 %. The variation of FOS of landslide for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative are 15 and 5 % for landslides near seismic fault and outside seismic fault, respectively. For landslide with a slope angle <45°, the FOS of landslide with both horizontal and vertical accelerations is significantly greater than the one without vertical acceleration. Further, the results computed from both the pseudostatic method and dynamic analysis reveal that the FOS during the earthquake varied significantly whether vertical acceleration is considered or not. The results from this study explain why lots of throwing-pattern catastrophic landslides occurred within 10 km of the seismic fault in the Wenchuan earthquake.     

On a damaging earthquake-induced landslide in the Algerian Alps: the March 20, 2006 Laâlam landslide (Babors chain,northeast Algeria), triggered by the Kherrata earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> = 5.3)

On March 20, 2006, an earthquake (M _w = 5.3; SED) struck the mountainous region of the Babors chain (Wilaya of Bejaia, northeast Algeria). The seismic epicenter was located near the Kherrata village. This earthquake was felt on a large area of the northeastern part of Algeria. It reached an intensity of VII (EMS scale) at the Laalam village, situated at about 20 km northeast of Kherrata. Here, many old and recent houses were damaged or collapsed totally, four people died and 68 were injured. Field investigations revealed that these casualties were caused by a landslide triggered by the earthquake. Many fissures were visible on ground throughout the site. They were generated by both sliding and settling phenomena. The Laalam site is prone to landslide, as revealed by some evidences on old instabilities. This is due to two main factors: local geomorphology and geology. These factors intervene synchronously for reducing the slope instability at the Laalam village. The March 20, 2006 Kherrata earthquake was the trigger that released the Laalam landslide.     

Earthquakes and soil liquefaction in flood stories of the ancient Near East

Flood stories in the Hebrew Bible and the Koran appear to be derived from earlier flood stories like those in the Gilgamesh Epic and still earlier in the Atrahasis. All would have their source from floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

The Gilgamesh Epic magnifies the catastrophe by having the flood begin with winds, lightning, and a shattering of the earth, or earthquake. Elsewhere in Gilgamesh, an earthquake can be shown to have produced pits and chasms along with gushing of water. It is commonly observed that earthquake shaking causes water to gush from the ground and leaves pits and open fissures. The process is known as soil liquefaction. Earthquake is also a possible explanation for the verse “all the fountains of the great deep (were) broken up” that began the Flood in Genesis. Traditionally, the “great deep” was the ocean bottom. A more recent translation substitutes “burst” for “broken up” in describing the fountains, suggesting that they erupted at the ground surface and were caused by an earthquake with soil liquefaction. Another relation between soil liquefaction and the Flood is found in the Koran where the Flood starts when “water gushed forth from the oven”. Soil liquefaction observed erupting preferentially into houses during an earthquake provides a logical interpretation if the oven is seen as a tiny house. A case can be made that earthquakes with soil liquefaction are embedded in all of these flood stories.     

西藏安多最新史前大地震的地质证据及其年龄

在西藏安多地区进行活动断裂研究过程中,进行地表调查和探槽开挖,证实错那－安多地堑北缘主边界断裂上的最新地表断层陡坎实际是该区史前大地震的地表遗迹。根据地表观察和实地测量结果可知,该区最新古地震断坎的延伸范围可达 26～36km,平均垂直位移量达 1.0～1.4m。相关地层－地貌体的年代学测试结果和古地震破裂参数表明,最新的古地震发生在距今约 10.0～8.1ka期间,估计当时的古地震震级介于 6.9～7.3级之间,当时的极震区烈度可能≥Ⅸ度。此古地震破裂的发现表明,青藏高原中部正断层型大地震之后的沉寂时间可以长达近万年,明显长于藏南裂谷带上的正断层型古地震活动间隔。由于安多地区最新大地震之后的离逝时间已足以积累类似强度的大地震,因此,该区未来的大地震危险性较高。     

Long-term hydrochemical earthquake precursor studies at the Koyna-Warna reservoir site in western India

Koyna-Warna region of western India is an active seismic zone due to the Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS). Earthquake precursor studies are carried out monitoring hydrochemical and stable isotope signatures in the groundwater from 15 bore wells since January 2005, for more than 12 years (January 2005 to February 2017). Depth of these boreholes ranges from 100 to 250 m. Cyclic or temporal variation in hydrochemistry is observed in few sensitive wells in Koyna region. The Govare well in Koyna is found to be most sensitive and the observed hydrochemical cycle is closely associated with local earthquakes of M > 5. The earthquakes M <5 occurring either in Warna cluster or close to the observation wells, did not generate hydrochemical precursory changes. The increase in hydrochemistry is hypothesized as mixing of two aquifer waters with different hydrochemistry. It is noted that a precursory hydrochemical cycle is observed during first quarter of 2015, but no earthquake M > 5.0 occurred till date. The cyclic changes in hydrochemistry, however, indicate on-going earthquake processes and an impending earthquake of M > 5 in the region.     

Earthquake disaster risk assessment and evaluation for Turkey

Turkey is the one country in which 90% of the buildings are subject to the risk of earthquake disaster. Recent earthquakes revealed that Turkey’s present residential reinforced-concrete constructions are insufficient in earthquake resistance. Many of the buildings which collapsed or were severely damaged have been rehabilitated by applying simple methods, whose adequacy is questionable. As in Japan and the United States, Turkey’s earthquake assessment studies have increased, especially after earthquakes in 1999, In US, several methodologies and standards, such as Hazard-US (HAZUS) and Applied Technology Council (ATC) 13-20-21 and 156, provide comprehensive earthquake loss estimation methodology for post-earthquake assessment. This paper provides post-earthquake assessment and disaster management for Turkey. The main aim of the post-earthquake assessment discussed is to evaluate loss and estimate damage through disaster management approach. Classification criteria for damage are essential to determine the situation after an earthquake in both the short and long terms. The methodology includes probabilistic-based analysis, which considers the magnitude of Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes between 1900 and 2005, for determining the probabilistic seismic hazard for Turkey.     

Numerical simulation of dynamic mechanisms of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake: implications for earthquake prediction

The sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Ms = 8.0) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault, causing a large number of casualties and huge property loss. Almost no definite precursors were reported prior to this event by Chinese scientists, who made a first successful prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (M = 7.3) in China. Does the unsuccessful prediction of the Wenchuan earthquake mean earthquake prediction is inherently impossible? In order to answer this question, the paper simulated inter- and co-seismic deformation, and recurrence of strong earthquakes associated with the Longmen Shan listric thrust fault by means of viscoelastic finite element method. The modeling results show that the computed interseismic strain accumulation in the lower crust beneath the Eastern Tibet is much faster than that in the other regions. In particular, the elastic strain energy density rate accumulates very rapid in and around the Longmen Shan fault in the depth above ~25 km that may explain why the great Wenchuan earthquake occurs in the region of such a slow surface deformation rate. The modeled coseismic displacements around the fault are consistent with surface rupture, aftershock distribution, and GPS measurement. Also, the model displays the slip history on the Longmen Shan fault, implying that the average earthquake recurrence interval on the Longmen Shan fault is very long, 3,300 years, which is in good agreement with the observed by paleoseismological investigations and estimates by other methods. Moreover, the model results indicate that the future earthquake could be evaluated based on numerical computation, rather than on precursors or on statistics. Numerical earthquake prediction (NEP) seems to be a promising avenue to a successful prediction, which will play an important part in natural hazard mitigation. NEP is difficult but possible, which needs well supporting.     

A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

Spatial Potential Analysis of Earthquakes in the Western Himalayas Using b-value and Thrust Association

In this study, we have analysed the spatial variation of b-values (from frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD)) in the western Himalayas as an indicator to demarcate the potential zones of earthquake occurrences. This is done under the acceptance of interpretation that decrease of b-values is correlated with a stress increase in the epicentral region of an approaching earthquake event. In addition to this, the spatial association of the earthquake epicenters with the major thrusts in the region using weights of evidence method, to identify potential zones of earthquake occurrences have also been analysed. Both analyses were carried out using a historical earthquake (M_w> 4) database of the1900-2015 period. Finally, based on the spatial variation of b-values and ‘contrasts’ derived from weights of evidence method (thrust associations), the derived map information was geospatially combined to prepare a “spatial earthquake potential” map of the western Himalayas. This map demarcates the western Himalayas into 3 zones - high, medium and low potential for future earthquake occurrences.     

青海玛多“5·22”MS7.4级地震的同震地表破裂特征、成因及意义

2021年5月22日2时4分在青海省果洛藏族州玛多县境内发生M_S7.4级地震,此次玛多M_S7.4级地震是2008年汶川M_S8.0级大地震之后中国震级最大的一次地震,及时查明其同震地表破裂展布及特征,对于正确认识发震构造和区域防震减灾具有重要意义。根据震后现场调查,结合高分辨率卫星遥感图像的解译分析、余震数据和典型地震地表破裂的无人机低空摄影测量等结果,初步获得了此次地震6处典型地震地表破裂的特征。结果发现:此次玛多地震的地表破裂主要沿已知的东昆仑断裂带的南侧分支断裂昆仑山口-江错断裂的东南段分布,分析表明其中的江错断裂应是此次地震的发震断层;同震破裂的西段总体走向275°~300°,主要表现为挤压鼓包和雁列式张裂隙的斜列组合,其中江错贡麻段至江多村段出现了明显的1.4~0.8 m的垂直位移,指示该段可能具有较明显的正断层成分;中部黄河乡段主要由一系列呈左阶斜列的北西向P剪切裂缝和右阶雁行排列的北东向张裂隙构成,走滑位移较小;而东段地表破裂出现了多个分支,其中北支昌马河段主要由一系列雁行排列的张裂隙组成,总体走向为260°,与断裂西段的走向明显不同;地震造成的最大左旋位移出现在西段的错尔加拉破裂段,约2.8 m,指示此次地震地表破裂带的走滑位移主要呈从西向东的单侧扩展-衰减特征。考虑到此次玛多地震出现在东昆仑主干断裂南侧的巴颜喀拉地块内部,表明该地块内部具有发生7级以上大地震的能力,因此,巴颜喀拉地块内部强震活动的孕震条件和机理应该是未来需要进一步关注的科学问题。      

Space-time distribution patterns of destructive earthquakes in the inner belt of central Japan: Activity intervals and locations of earthquakes

Based on a block structure model of the inner belt of central Japan, an examination was conducted of the space-time distribution patterns of destructiv magnitudes M 6.4 or greater (M =Japan Meteorological Agency Scale). The distribution patterns revealed a periodicity in earthquake activit seismic gaps. Major NW—SE trending left-lateral active faults divide the inner belt of central Japan into four blocks, 20–80 km wide. The occurrenc A.D. with M ≥ 6.4, which have caused significant damage, were documented in the inner belt of central Japan. The epicenters of these earthquakes close to the block boundaries.

Using the relationship between the magnitude of earthquakes which occurred in the Japanese Islands and the active length of faults that generated them, movement is calculated for each historical earthquake. Space—time distributions of earthquakes were obtained from the calculated lengths, the latitud of generation. When an active period begins, a portion or segment of the block boundary creates an earthquake, which in turn appears on the ground surf active period ends when the block boundary generates earthquakes over the entire length of the block boundary without overlapping.

Five seismic gaps with fault lengths of 20 km or longer can be found in the inner belt of central Japan. It is predicted that the gaps will generate ea magnitudes of 7.0. These data are of significance for estimating a regional earthquake risk over central Japan in the design of large earthquake resist

The time sequences of earthquakes on the block boundaries reveal a similar tendency, with alternating active periods with seismic activity and quiet pe activity. The inner belt of central Japan is now in the last stage of an active period. The next active period is predicted to occur around 2500 A.D.     

Induced earthquakes in the Izu peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of 1974, Japan

Recently small earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula, central Japan, occurred in a region where differential strain, or shear strain on the nodal planes, may have been enhanced by the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake of 1974 (M = 6.9 after JMA). It is suggested that the seismic ctivity was induced by the redistribution of strain accompanying the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake. The activity from August, 1975, may have also been affected by an abnormal uplift in the northeastern part of the peninsula. Based on plausible models, the uplift caused the accumulation of differential strain in the focal region of the subsequent earthquakes. Quantitatively, this change of crustal strain was of the order of 10⁻⁶; it is ten times as much as the average annual accumulation. Consequently, the sudden or rapid change of strain was likely to have played an essential role in the subsequent seismic activity. This effect could be one of the factors which trigger a shallow intra-plate earthquake.     

Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.