Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using Copula modeling technique

A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent.     

GIS-based statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced landslides in the island of Lefkada, Ionian Islands, Greece

This is the first landslide inventory map in the island of Lefkada integrating satellite imagery and reports from field surveys. In particular, satellite imagery acquired before and after the 2003 earthquake were collected and interpreted with the results of the field survey that took place 1 week after this strong (Mw?=?6.3) event. The developed inventory map indicates that the density of landslides decreases from west to east. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of landslides was statistically analyzed in relation to the geology and topography for investigating their influence to landsliding. This was accomplished by overlaying these causal factors as thematic layers with landslide distribution data. Afterwards, weight values of each factor were calculated using the landslide index method and a landslide susceptibility map was developed. The susceptibility map indicates that the highest susceptibility class accounts for 38 % of the total landslide activity, while the three highest classes that cover the 10 % of the surface area, accounting for almost the 85 % of the active landslides. Our model was validated by applying the approaches of success and prediction rate to the dataset of landslides that was previously divided into two groups based on temporal criteria, estimation and validation group. The outcome of the validation dataset was that the highest susceptibility class concentrates 18 % of the total landslide activity. However, taking into account the frequency of landslides within the three highest susceptibility classes, more than 85 %, the model is characterized as reliable for a regional assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard.     

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.     

Catastrophe theory models in geology

Catastrophe theory is a recently developed branch of topology which has a number of practical applications, principally because of its ability to model situations which include discontinuities or singularities, where the methods of differential calculus break down. Some examples of its possible use in geology are presented, in fields as diverse as volcanology, sedimentology, and structural geology, and wider applications, in modeling spatial or temporal discontinuities in other fields, are suggested.     

Predictive landslide susceptibility mapping using spatial information in the Pechabun area of Thailand

For predictive landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified probability model, the frequency ratio and statistical model, logistic regression at Pechabun, Thailand, using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and maps of the topography, geology and land cover were constructed to spatial database. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect and curvature of topography and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite image. The frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid for landslide susceptibility mapping as each factor’s ratings. Then the landslide susceptibility map was verified and compared using the existing landslide location. As the verification results, the frequency ratio model showed 76.39% and logistic regression model showed 70.42% in prediction accuracy. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to plan land cover.     

Global mass wasting during the Middle Ordovician: Meteoritic trigger or plate-tectonic environment?

Mass wasting at continental margins on a global scale during the Middle Ordovician has recently been related to high meteorite influx. Although a high meteorite influx during the Ordovician should not be neglected, we challenge the idea that mass wasting was mainly produced by meteorite impacts over a period of almost 10 Ma. Having strong arguments against the impact-related hypothesis, we propose an alternative explanation, which is based on a re-evaluation of the mass wasting sites, considering their plate-tectonic distribution and the global sea level curve. A striking and important feature is the distribution of most of the mass wasting sites along continental margins characterised by periods of magmatism, terrane accretion and continental or back-arc rifting, respectively, related to subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Such processes are commonly connected with seismic activity causing earthquakes, which can cause downslope movement of sediment and rock. Considering all that, it seems more likely that most of this mass wasting was triggered by earthquakes related to plate-tectonic processes, which caused destabilisation of continental margins resulting in megabreccias and debris flows. Moreover, the period of mass wasting coincides with sea level drops during global sea level lowstand. In some cases, sea level drops can release pore-water overpressure reducing sediment strength and hence promoting instability of sediment at continental margins. Reduced pore-water overpressure can also destabilise gas hydrate-bearing sediment, causing slope failure, and thus resulting in submarine mass wasting. Overall, the global mass wasting during the Middle Ordovician does not need meteoritic trigger.     

Quantifying the impact of small variations in fracture geometric characteristics on peak rock mass properties at a mining project using a coupled DFN–DEM approach

Using field data from Agnico-Eagle’s Meliadine gold project located in Nunavut Territory in northern Canada, a coupled DFN–DEM approach was used to evaluate the rock mass mechanical properties at REV. Variability in the structural data gathered on site and the variability associated with the stochastic modeling process have an impact on discrete fracture model (DFN) properties. Through a sensitivity analysis, this paper assesses the influence of a variation in the DFN model input parameters’ values on the rock mass peak properties – uniaxial compressive strength, Young modulus and Poisson ratio. The results not only highlight the possibilities associated with DFN–DEM modeling in characterizing rock mass properties at the engineering scale, they also provide a systematic way to assess the critical structural parameters controlling the rock mass properties.     

基于多源数据融合的相山火山盆地三维地质建模

随着三维建模技术的日益发展,单一数据源建模已不能满足建模需求。文中通过对多源数据建模方法的阐述,综合地质、物探、化探、遥感、钻探等多源数据的融合方法进行详细解释。将多源数据按表现形式划分为图件类、文字信息类,并通过一系列数据处理工作将原始数据整合至三维空间数据库。以GoCAD建模软件为平台,详细阐述了地形地貌、钻孔、地层、构造、岩体、矿体等对象的建模实现方法,引入GoCAD软件的半自动化流程建模法建立构造-地层实体模型,并提出两种岩体实体建模方法,实现岩体实体模型的构建,最终构建相山火山盆地三维地质实体模型。     

Evaluation of sediment yield and soil loss by the MPSIAC model using GIS at Golestan watershed, northeast of Iran

Watershed degradation due to soil erosion and sedimentation is considered to be one of the major environmental problems in Iran. In order to address the critical conditions of watershed degradation in arid and semiarid regions, a study based on the Modified Pacific Southwest Inter-Agency Committee (MPSIAC) model was carried out at Golestan watershed, northeast of Iran. The model information layers comprising nine effective factors in erosion and sedimentation at the watershed site were obtained by digitalization and spatial interpolation of the basic information data in a GIS program. These factors are geology, soil, climate, runoff, topography, land cover, land use, channel, and upland erosion. The source data for the model were obtained from available records on rainfall and river discharge and sediment, topography, land use, geology, and soil maps as well as field surveys and laboratory analysis. The results of the MPSIAC model indicated that 60.75 % (194.4 km²) and 54.97 % (175.9 km²) of the total watershed area were classified in the heavy sedimentation and erosion classes, and the total basin sediment yield and erosion were calculated as 4,171.1 and 17,813.4 m³ km^?2 year^?1, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the most sensitive parameters of the model in order of importance were topography (slope), land cover and use, runoff, and channel erosion (R ²?=?0.92–0.94), while geology, climate (rainfall), soil, and upland erosion factors were found to have moderate effect to the model output (R ²?=?0.74–0.59).     

Rossberg landslide history and flood chronology as recorded in Lake Lauerz sediments (Central Switzerland)

The southern slopes of Rossberg mountain, Central Switzerland, on which one of the largest historic landslides of the Alpine region was released in 1806 ad (Goldauer Bergsturz), are prone to large-scale mass wasting processes. This has led to numerous sliding events, which are well-recognizable in the modern topography but lack accurate dating. In order to provide new insights into the timing and the processes associated with past landslides as well as into the frequency of exceptional flood events, long sediment cores were retrieved from the subsurface of Lake Lauerz that lies in the pathway of these landslides and that records strong runoff events with typical flood layers. Analyses of the recovered cores display a sedimentologic succession with variable fingerprints of past landslides and flood events, depending on the coring location within the lake. The landslide signature can be calibrated using the 1806 ad event: An organic-rich peaty unit, which is found in two cores located close to the rockmass impact, points towards a sudden, gravity spreading-induced lateral displacement of the swampy plain where parts of the rock mass were accumulating. This rapid lateral mobilization of soft sediments, and not the rock masses, acted as ultimate trigger for the reported ~15 m-high impulse waves on the lake. In the more distal areas, the 1806 ad event led to the deposition of a thick, organic-rich redeposited layer. The 10 m-long core from the distal basin covers a radiocarbon-dated ~2,000 years sedimentation history and contains a highly similar event layer that was deposited in 810 ± 60 ad. This layer is most likely the product of a major historic landslide, known as Röthener Bergsturz, which, based on scarce historical reports, was commonly dated to 1222 ad. In the 2,000 years record, we identify three periods with enhanced occurrence of flood turbidites dated to 580–850 ad, 990–1420 ad, and 1630–1940 ad. Among the 54 detected flood layers, 6 probably mark exceptionally heavy rainfall events that are dated to ~610, ~1160, ~1290, ~1660, ~1850, and ~1876 ad, the latter being associated to one of the most intense rainfall events ever recorded instrumentally in the region.     

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

全球红土型镍矿床的基本成矿规律

全球红土型镍矿床具有明显的时空分布规律, 红土型镍矿体则具有明显的垂向分带规律。红土型镍矿化强度明显受成矿母岩成分(包括镍含量、岩石地球化学成分、矿物成分)、气候、地形地貌、水文地质、构造地质、成矿时间长短及风化壳成熟度的影响和控制。红土型镍矿的矿床类型主要受气候、大地构造背景、构造隆升状态控制, 并受地形地貌、排水条件、成矿母岩岩性及其蛇纹石化程度影响。     

Landslide susceptibility deterministic approach using geographic information systems: application to Breaza town, Romania

The study is a deterministic-based approach on landslide susceptibility. The purpose of the paper is to create quantitative susceptibility maps by joining the one-dimension infinite slope stability model with a raster-based GIS (ILWIS) and taking into account the spatial distribution of input parameters. A landslide-prone area, with relative homogeneous geology and geomorphology, located in the Subcarpathian sector of the Prahova River, Romania, was selected for the study. There are frequent problems caused by active landslides in the studied area, especially in years with heavy precipitation, often causing destruction of houses and roads situated on the slopes (1992, 1997, and 2005). Detailed surveys covering a 7-year period provided the necessary input data on slope parameters, hydrological components, and the geotechnical background. Two simulations were used: one on dry soil conditions and one on fully saturated soil conditions. A third test was based on the level of the groundwater table mapped in summer 2008. Detailed analyses were particularly focused on landslides to compare predicted results with actual results using field measurements. The model is very suitable for use in raster GIS because it can calculate slope instability on a pixel basis, each raster cell being considered individually. The drawback of the model is the highly detailed data of input parameters. Despite this disadvantage, in conclusion, the usefulness of slope stability models on a large-scale basis was emphasized under infinitely high failure plain conditions and lithological homogeneity.     

The performance of the Noblesse multi-collector noble gas mass spectrometer for <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar geochronology

Noblesse multi-collector noble gas mass spectrometer is specially designed for multi-collection of Ar isotopes with different beam sizes, especially for small ion beams, precisely, and hence is perfectly suitable for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology. We have analyzed widely used sanidine, muscovite, and biotite standards with recommended ages of ~ 1.2–133 Ma, with the aim to assess the reliability of Noblesse for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating. An ESI MIR10 30W CO₂ laser was used for total fusion or incremental heating samples. Extracted gases were routinely purified by four SAES NP10 getters (one at ~ 400 °C and others at room temperature). A GP50 getter and a metal cold finger cooled by liquid N (? 196 °C) were also attached for additional purification if necessary. The Ar isotopes were then measured by Noblesse using Faraday or multiplier according to the signal intensities. Over a period of 1.5 months 337 air calibrations produced a weighted mean ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar of 296.50 ± 0.08 (2σ, MSWD = 4.77). Fish Canyon sanidine is used to calculate J-values, which show good linear relationship with position in irradiation. The age of four mineral standards (Alder Creek sanidine, Brione muscovite, Yabachi sanidine, and Fangshan biotite) are within error of the accepted ages. Five Alder Creek sanidine aliquots yielded an age range of 1.174–1.181 ± 0.013 Ma (2σ) which broadly overlaps the established age of the standard and the uncertainty approaches those of the foremost Ar/Ar laboratories in the world. The weighted mean ages of four Brione muscovite aliquots (18.75 ± 0.16 Ma, 2σ), five Yabachi sanidine aliquots (29.50 ± 0.19 Ma, 2σ), and three Fangshan biotite aliquots (133.0 ± 0.76 Ma, 2σ) are consistent with the recommended values of these standards, and the uncertainties are typical of modern Ar/Ar laboratories world-wide.     

Spatial distribution analysis and susceptibility mapping of landslides triggered before and after Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake along Upper Bhote Koshi,Nepal

The 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake triggered thousands of landslides of various types scattered over a large area. In the current study, we utilized pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite imagery to compile two landslide inventories before and after earthquake and prepared three landslide susceptibility maps within 404 km² area using frequency ratio (FR) model. From the study, we could map about 519 landslides including 178 pre-earthquake slides and 341 coseismic slides were identified. This study investigated the relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide causative factors, i.e., slope, aspect, altitude, plan curvature, lithology, land use, distance from streams, distance from road, distance from faults, and peak ground acceleration. The analysis showed that the majority of landslides both pre-earthquake and coseismic occurred at slope >30°, preferably in S, SE, and SW directions and within altitude ranging from 1000 to 1500 m and 1500 to 3500 m. Scatter plots between number of landslides per km^?2 (LN) and percentage of landslide area (LA) and causative factors indicate that slope is the most influencing factor followed by lithology and PGA for the landslide formation. Higher landslide susceptibility before earthquake is observed along the road and rivers, whereas landslides after earthquake are triggered at steeper slopes and at higher altitudes. Combined susceptibility map indicates the effect of topography, geology, and land cover in the triggering of landslides in the entire basin. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps are verified through AUC showing success rates of 78, 81, and 77%, respectively. These susceptibility maps are helpful for engineers and planners for future development work in the landslide prone area.     

A novel hybrid integration model using support vector machines and random subspace for weather-triggered landslide susceptibility assessment in the Wuning area (China)

This study proposed a hybrid modeling approach using two methods, support vector machines and random subspace, to create a novel model named random subspace-based support vector machines (RSSVM) for assessing landslide susceptibility. The newly developed model was then tested in the Wuning area, China, to produce a landslide susceptibility map. With the purpose of achieving the objective of the study, a spatial dataset was initially constructed that includes a landslide inventory map consisting of 445 landslide regions. Then, various landslide-influencing factors were defined, including slope angle, aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, soil, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, rainfall, distance to roads, distance to rivers, and distance to faults. Next, the result of the RSSVM model was validated using statistical index-based evaluations and the receiver operating characteristic curve approach. Then, to evaluate the performance of the suggested RSSVM model, a comparison analysis was performed to other existing approaches such as artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes (NB) and support vector machine (SVM). In general, the performance of the RSSVM model was better than the other models for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility. The AUC results of the applied models are as follows: RSSVM (AUC = 0.857), followed by MLP (AUC = 0.823), SVM (AUC = 0.814) and NB (AUC = 0.783). The present study indicates that RSSVM can be used for landslide susceptibility evaluation, and the results are very useful for local governments and people living in the Wuning area.     

A subaqueous hazard map for earthquake-triggered landslides in Lake Zurich,Switzerland

The awareness of geohazards in the subaqueous environment has steadily increased in the past years and there is an increased need to assess these hazards in a quantitative sense. Prime examples are subaqueous landslides, which can be triggered by a number of processes including earthquakes or human activities, and which may impact offshore and onshore infrastructure and communities. In the literature, a plenitude of subaqueous landslide events are related to historical earthquakes, including cases from lakes in Switzerland. Here, we present an approach for a basin-wide earthquake-triggered subaquatic landslide hazard assessment for Lake Zurich, which is surrounded by a densely populated shoreline. Our analysis is based on high-resolution sediment-mechanical and geophysical input data. Slope stabilities are calculated with a grid-based limit equilibrium model on an infinite slope, which uses Monte Carlo sampled input data from a sediment-mechanical stratigraphy of the lateral slopes. Combined with probabilistic ground-shaking forecasts from a recent national seismic hazard analysis, subaquatic earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps are constructed for different mean return periods, ranging from 475 to 9975 years. Our results provide a first quantitative landslide hazard estimation for the lateral slopes in Lake Zurich. Furthermore, a back-analysis of a case-study site indicates that pseudostatic accelerations in the range between 0.04 and 0.08 g were needed to trigger a well-investigated subaqueous landslide, dated to ~2210 cal. years B.P.     

节理网络有限元在倾倒斜坡稳定分析中的应用

节理网络有限元是指具有节理网络模拟功能的有限元,它不但能将野外节理统计特征直接输入到模型中,同时允许节理按一定的破坏准则产生屈服,从而较好地模拟边坡的实际结构及破坏特征。论述了倾倒变形边坡的分析方法及存在的问题,介绍了节理网络有限元的功能及参数输入,说明了其在倾倒变形边坡应用中的优势,并以黄河上游茨哈峡电站Ⅰ号倾倒体为例,计算了该倾倒边坡的稳定性及破坏趋势,结果表明,节理网络有限元是倾倒变形边坡稳定分析的一种有效、可靠的方法。     

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.