Comparative study of flash flood in ungauged watershed with special emphasizing on rough set theory for handling the missing hydrological values

Natural Hazards - Prediction of the flash floods in ungauged or poorly gauging watershed is one of the challenging tasks in the field of hydrology and needs implication of advanced techniques to...     

Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz,Turkey

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events.     

Analysis of soil boundary conditions of flash floods in a small basin in SW Hungary

Flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. Due to the complexity of flash flood triggering factors, to prevent or mitigate flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are capable tools to predict stream water levels. The main goal of the current research was to reproduce two flow peaks with the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model and test the model sensitivity for various input parameters. To obtain sufficient input data, we monitored soil depth, maximum infiltration rate, soil moisture content, rainfall, time of concentration and flow. To obtain input data, parameters were calculated, measured in the Sás Valley experimental watershed (SW Hungary) or optimized with the built in function of the HEC-HMS. Soil moisture was monitored in the 1.7 km2 pilot catchment over the period between September 2008 and September 2009. HEC-HMS had a good performance reproducing the two events, however simulated flow time series are highly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture, infiltration rate and canopy storage. Outflow modeled data were verified for two flood events (June 4, 2008 and July 9, 2009). The HEC-HMS was over-sensitive for input soil moisture and with increasing input rainfall and increasing outflow, larger simulation errors were observed.     

Numerical analysis and evaluation of groundwater recession in a flood detention basin

This study analyzes the groundwater environment in the Yangzhuang flood detention basin in Henan Province, China. A numerical model of groundwater flow is established based on the hydrogeological conditions in the basin and changes of groundwater level in the flood detention basin under flood detention and recession conditions. The results show that during flood diversion and storage, the groundwater level in the basin rises, mainly in four flood detention zones, with a maximum rise of 1.0 m. After the floodwater recedes, the groundwater level slowly drops in the detention basin along with flood discharge, finally returning to its original level fifty days later. This study indicates that groundwater recession in the flood detention basin is a slow process, where the rise of groundwater level may cause environmental problems such as soil swamping.     

The use of watershed geomorphic data in flash flood susceptibility zoning: a case study of the Karnaphuli and Sangu river basins of Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The occurrence of heavy rainfall in the south-eastern hilly region of Bangladesh makes this area highly susceptible to recurrent flash flooding. As the region is the commercial...     

Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods

Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.     

旅游活动与水环境耦合分析 ——以玉龙雪山-丽江盆地为例

玉龙雪山是我国季风海洋型冰川发育最为典型的代表性地区,也是北半球最靠近赤道的现代冰川区.丽江市的部分水源来自于玉龙雪山冰川融水,同时玉龙雪山景区每年吸引着上千万的游客来欣赏现代冰川.旅游活动与水环境息息相关且相互作用,水环境的准确刻画是指导与优化区域旅游活动的基础.以世界著名旅游城市丽江市为例,基于实地采样与数据分析,...     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Assessment of surface water potential and groundwater recharge in ungauged watersheds: a case study in Tamil Nadu,India

Many of the states in India have been facing water scarcity for more than 2 decades due to increased demand, because of the increase in population and higher living standards. Consequently, many states have almost fully utilized the available surface water resources and are exploiting groundwater to augment water supplies. Investigations were carried out in the upper Thurinjalar watershed of Ponnaiyar basin in Tamil Nadu to determine the availability of surface water and to investigate the potential for enhancing groundwater recharge to support the water demand in the watershed. Increasing the water availability would also enable the community to convert the 46% of the land area in the watershed that is currently underutilised into productive uses. The surface water potential for the upper Thurinjalar watershed was assessed by applying the USDA–NRCS model with daily time steps. This modelling exercise indicated that the annual runoff from the 323 km² area of the watershed is 61 million m³. Groundwater recharge in the watershed was assessed by carrying out daily water balance method and indicated that about 43 million m³ of water from recharge is available on an annual basis or about 14% of annual rainfall. A simple regression model was developed to compute groundwater recharge from rainfall based on water balance computations and this was statistically verified. The modelling indicated that there is sufficient water available in the watershed to support current land uses and to increase the productivity of underutilised land in the area. The study also demonstrates that simple regression models can be used as an effective tool to compute groundwater recharge for ungauged basins with proper calibration.     

动态古地貌再造: Badlands软件在盆地分析中的应用*

近几年来的研究发现,当存在较强的构造活动时,古地理特征变化将会加快,而常规方法很难对这一构造活动过程中的古地理和古地貌进行有效的恢复和研究。Basin and Landscape Dynamics(Badlands)软件正是基于前人的研究工作而开发的一款数值模拟软件,用于模拟各种空间和时间尺度的地貌演化。它可用于研究地表演化过程、预测侵蚀和沉积速率并评估沉积物通量,从而实现对古地理和古地貌进行更为精细化的研究。笔者介绍了Badlands软件的基本原理和方法,并将此方法应用于东海陆架盆地南部中生代地貌及地质演化过程的研究: 首先利用研究区域内现有的地震剖面、测井、平衡剖面等资料获得中生代早期的古地形;再通过恢复的古地形构建数值模型,并加载降雨量、岩石侵蚀性、海平面变化、动力地形调整和地壳弹性层厚度等相关参数进行模拟研究,以分析强烈的构造运动对盆地地貌演化的影响;最后对比模拟结果与已知的中生代的地貌特征和沉积分布,并据此进一步分析中生代盆地演化过程中的沉积物分布规律以及三维古地理和古地貌演化特征。该方法可以为沉积盆地充填过程分析和能源矿产勘探提供有益的思路。     

Weathering fluxes of arsenic from a small catchment in Slovak Republic

Inputs of As to a small catchment due to chemical weathering of bedrock, mechanical weathering of bedrock, and atmospheric precipitation were 71.53, 23.98 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The output fluxes of As due to mechanical erosion of soil, biological uptake, stream discharge, and groundwater flow were 6.32, 4.77, 0.37 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The results indicate that arsenic accumulates in soil and regolith with a very high rate. This is attributed to the selective weathering and erosion with respect to arsenic and fixation of arsenic in the secondary solids produced by weathering. The output fluxes of As in stream and groundwater in Vydrica catchment in Slovak Republic (0.39 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) based on muscovite–biotite granites and granodiorites were much lower compared to catchments in a gold district in the Czech Republic. These results may be ascribed to the low levels of arsenic pollution measured in Vydrica catchment. The arsenic fluxes were estimated by calculation of mechanical and chemical weathering rates of the bedrocks in Vydrica catchment from mass balance data on sodium and silica. The justification of the steady state of Na and Si is that neither of the elements is appreciably accumulated in plants and in exchangeable pool of ions in soil.     

Location model analysis of flood relief facilities: a case study of the Fazih River floodplain,Taiwan

The continuously low efficiencies of flood relief service in responding to flooding disasters in Taiwan highlight a need for research. This service efficiency is negatively influenced by flood relief facility locations and their operational management structure. The Fazih River floodplain has been previously identified as a high-flood-risk area using an analytic hierarchy process. The purpose of this study is to use the location set covering problem and the maximal covering location problem to determine the number of relief facilities required and the maximum covering area of each facility for the case study area of the Fazih River floodplain. The findings showed that covering distances range from 3.0 to 6.6 km and the number of facilities required for improved service efficiency is between 1 and 4.

     

基于FloodArea模型的小流域山洪灾害临界雨量阈值初探

针对缺乏水位流量资料的山区小流域地区山洪临界雨量难以确定的问题,以四川省南江河上游流域作为研究区域,基于德国Geomer公司开发的二维非恒定流水动力模型"FloodArea ",利用流域逐时降雨资料,地形高程数据以及土地利用数据,重现南江" 6·28"山洪暴发的动态演进过程,对模拟得到的逐时淹没深度与1~24 h累积流域面雨量求相关,选取预警点淹没深度与累积面雨量的相关系数最高的时效作为预警点致灾临界雨量阈值的预报时效,通过建立预警点淹没深度与预报时效累积面雨量的回归方程,从而获取预警点不同风险等级的临界雨量阈值。结果表明：FloodArea模型能够较好地呈现出此次典型山洪的暴发过程,通过对不同地势预警点临界雨量阈值的对比,最终选取地势较低,位于河流汇口地带、风险等级较高的上两九义校作为南江河上游流域山洪风险预警点。     

大同盆地地下水砷异常及其成因研究

大同盆地是中国典型的原生高砷地下水分布区。笔者对大同盆地高砷地下水的分布特征、水化学演化过程、砷的来源以及控制高砷地下水形成的地球化学过程等近期研究成果进行了总结。盆地周边石炭—二叠纪煤系地层是盆地高砷环境的主要原生物源,含水层系统中铁磁性矿物为砷的主要载体,盆地内富含有机质的湖相沉积物是次生富砷介质。在盆地中心,地下水径流受阻,蒸发成为主要的排泄方式,浓缩作用使得地下水中TDS含量增大。在富含有机质的地层中,有机质在细菌或微生物作用下不断发生分解,使得地下水环境呈还原性。在高pH、低Eh条件下,由于铁锰氧化物或氢氧化物等水合物或粘土矿物对砷的吸附性降低,一部分被吸附的砷从这些矿物表面解吸;同时部分铁锰氧化物可被还原为低价态可溶性铁锰,从而使与其结合的砷也得以释放进入地下水中。在还原条件下,水中的SO24-和有机碳可被还原成H2S和CH4等低价态化合物,尽管生成的硫化物达到一定浓度时可与水中的亚铁离子和砷反应生成FeAsS沉淀,降低了地下水中砷含量,但由于地下水中Fe和硫酸盐含量有限,Fe普遍含量较低,硫酸盐耗尽后,CH4生成细菌就会成为主导力量,砷就会继续在地下水中积聚。此外,由于pH的升高,还可引起其他不同的酸根离子的解吸,如磷酸根、钒酸根、铀酰和钼酸根等也趋向于在溶液中积累,这些被吸附的阴离子以竞争吸附方式,进一步促进砷的解吸。