Women’s empowerment following disaster: a longitudinal study of social change

This paper examines changes in gender relations in a small coastal community as a result of the 2010 Chile earthquake and tsunami. Vulnerability and resilience are used as a conceptual framework to analyse these changes. Based on empirical evidence from a seven-year longitudinal study and quasi-ethnographic work, we explore changes in power relations at the different stages of the disaster and longer-term recovery as well as the conditions that fostered these changes. Our findings show distinct patterns of change. First, disasters can trigger long-lasting changes that challenge historical patriarchal relations. Second, while vulnerability increases following a disaster, resilience can potentially counteract women’s vulnerability. We propose that resilience can be a pathway to produce long-term changes in gender relations and empower women in the context of disasters.     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

Re-specifying disaster risk: concepts,methods, and models

The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters.     

基于GIS与信息量模型的汶川次生地质灾害危险性评价

5·12汶川大地震诱发了大量滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等次生地质灾害,对人民群众的生命财产和社会经济的发展形成了严重威胁.针对次生地质灾害危险性评价,选取重灾区汶川县作为研究区域,利用遥感与地理信息技术的空间数据管理和空间数据分析平台,获取了研究区的次生地质灾害信息,分析了研究区内次生地质灾害与各影响因子,包括地形地貌、地层岩性、水系、地震断裂之间的相关性特征,并结合信息量法模型进行次生地质灾害危险性评价.高度、中度和轻度危险区的面积分别为1 130.196 km2、1 739.584 km2、1 213.219 km2.本次地震触发次生地质灾害的分布具有集群式分布的特点,即断裂带及其附近地区地质灾害集中发育,而远离断裂带区地质灾害很快衰减,呈零星分布;从灾害发育的区域特征分析,汶川县震后次生地质灾害呈现出北部和东部重、西部和南部轻的特点.所得研究结果与实际情况较吻合,表明地理信息系统结合信息量模型能够快速、有效地对次生地质灾害的空间分布以及危险性作出评价.      

中国陆域地震灾害的时空分布格局

通过对近60年来中国陆域地震灾害信息的搜集与整理,建立了1949-2009年中国陆域地震灾害信息数据库,编制了中国5.0级以上地震灾害图谱库.在此基础上,从不同时空尺度定量分析了近60年来中国地震灾害的时空分布格局.研究表明:①近60年来中国累计发生5.0级以上地震灾害1 679次,年代际变化显著,70年代是中国地震灾...     

The comparison analysis of Chinese public perception of earthquakes on different time scales

China has suffered from severe earthquake disasters in recent years. In order to explore the impact of severe earthquakes on public risk perception on different time scales, four surveys were conducted twice each after the severe Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes. t tests were performed between two consecutive surveys to explore the change of public risk attitudes. The results demonstrated that after the two severe earthquakes, the public seismic risk acceptance has increased over time, and the comparison between pre- and post-Yushu earthquake illustrated that the severe disaster had more impact on vulnerable population such as females, children and low-income people. Moreover, linear regression models were employed to find the determining factors of public acceptance towards earthquake risks. It was discovered that the public perceived earthquake effect had significant negative relationship with seismic risk acceptance, and public trust towards local government had positive relationship with the risk acceptance. This study could help government to gain better understanding of public mental status and take more effective disaster preparedness measures when preventing and responding to a severe earthquake.     

Spatial and temporal evolution of community resilience to natural hazards in the coastal areas of China

With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.     

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究现状

青藏高原东南缘不同性质、不同类型、不同特点活动断裂发育且较为活跃,自2008年汶川地震发生以来,相继发生了玉树地震、庐山地震、鲁甸地震等。地震引发、触发、诱发产生了大量地质灾害,造成了惨重的生命财产损失。通过收集与分析相关资料,对青藏高原东南缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究进展与取得成果进行了归纳总结,从活动断裂地质灾害主要控制因素,地质灾害发育特征、空间分布规律、演化模式、形成机制,不同性质断裂控制效应、断裂两盘差异效应、地震动参数效应、地形地貌效应等地质环境效应和地质灾害力学效应等方面进行了综述。在此基础上,对活动断裂地质灾害效应研究中存在的如不同类型活动断裂和不同震级地震与地震地质灾害相关性、以及地震地质灾害监测与风险评估等问题或重点研究方向进行了探讨,其研究结果为地震地质灾害致灾机理、风险评估、防灾减灾等研究提供参考。      

Using Bayesian networks in analyzing powerful earthquake disaster chains

Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains.     

On the driving forces of historical changes in the fatalities of tropical cyclone disasters in China from 1951 to 2014

Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management.

     

1368—1948年陇中地区干旱灾害时间序列分形特征研究

采用标度变换法对陇中地区1368—1948年(明代至新中国建立前)各等级干旱灾害及旱季序列的时间分维值进行测算。并深入讨论了各旱灾序列时间分维与其线性特征之间的关系,以及分维随时间演进的变化趋势。对4个干旱等级、4个旱季序列的分维值进行研究,发现:①干旱灾害具有客观的分形结构,其时间序列是具有自组织性质的,干旱灾害是自组织系统;②各等级干旱灾害有自己的时间重演律,干旱灾害越轻,无标度区越宽,分维值越高,短周期更明显;③各旱季分维值与其发生频次成正比;④整个时期的动态总体上表现为:各旱灾序列(旱灾、大旱灾、中度干旱、春旱及伏旱)分维值逐渐增大,旱灾发生趋向混沌无序,旱灾系统趋向平衡态,稳定性减小;⑤分形分析法与常规统计方法之间有着内在联系。     

对黄土基本动力特性的认识

黄土高原是多地震地区,黄土体的地震灾害是工程建设中迫切需要解决的工程问题.依据人们对我国黄土动力特性的研究成果,阐述了黄土的动强度特性、黄土的循环动应力应变特性、震陷变形特性及黄土场地震害小区划研究,从而为正确地认识黄土工程的地震灾害提供基础.     

Integrating the geographic information system and predictive data mining techniques to model effects of compound disasters in Taipei

Located in the circum-Pacific seismic zone, Taiwan is continually threatened by such natural disasters as typhoons, floods, landslides, and earthquakes, which increase risk of property loss and severely endanger public safety. Taipei City, the political and economic capital of Taiwan, must address disaster prevention and relief operations for compound disasters and extreme climatic events in addition to existing metropolitan disaster prevention operations. This study formulates 48 compound-disaster scenarios based on threats to Taipei City due to heavy rainfall and surrounding faults. Hydrology and flood analysis results and the Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system are utilized to assess the potential for compound disasters and the number of people they would displace in Taipei’s administrative districts. Analytical results can be used to create a pre-disaster static potential diagram and a refuge or shelter capacity assessment table. The disaster potential diagram is adopted to conduct geographic information system spatial and data analysis, and temporary refuges or shelters planned by the city government are integrated for shelter capacity comparison. Furthermore, a dynamic assessment curve for the number of displaced people during a disaster is plotted using data mining and attribute filtering. Subsequently, a cross table is obtained and employed to predict the number of refugees in the various administrative districts. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are provided for making disaster prevention and relief decisions simultaneously concerning earthquakes and flooding.     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.

     

中国活动构造与环境灾害研究中的若干重大问题

活动构造与环境灾害是密切相关的。活动构造可以直接引起地质灾害,构造活动引发的地震又可以派生出一系列地质灾害,人类不恰当的工程活动还可以恶化地质构造环境而加剧地质灾害。在活动构造与环境灾害相关性研究方面,我国急待启动四大科学问题的研究工作:基于现代大陆动力学的中国大陆区域地壳稳定性分区评价研究;青藏高原隆升与地质灾害;活动断裂的工程危害及其防治;地质灾害的内外动力耦合成因机理。     

Key factors affecting sustained business operations after an earthquake: a case study from New Beichuan,China, 2013–2017

Most disaster research has focused on business recovery at a point in time or over a short period of time, with the goal of summarizing the experience to reduce business vulnerability in future disasters. However, studies on long-term business recovery processes may be more useful for providing lessons that support sustained business operations after a disaster. This study considers the changes in business’ operating statuses following the initial survival of a large earthquake and examines how different factors influence sustained business operations during the long-term recovery after a disaster. The study uses logistic regression techniques along with field investigations and questionnaire data collected from 256 New Beichuan businesses that remained open following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The study results showed that some of the original surviving businesses closed during the subsequent post-disaster operation process. As such, identifying businesses reopening after the disaster cannot be equated with long-term recovery. Factors significantly influencing the sustained operation of a business after the Wenchuan earthquake included: pre-disaster financial conditions, post-disaster monthly average profit, borrowing of money from family or friends, the business owner’s gender, and government subsidies. Study findings have important theoretical implications for research on the long-term recovery of businesses after an earthquake. Findings also have practical value for business owners selecting post-disaster sustainable operation strategies.

     

灾害恢复力研究进展综述

自20世纪以来,随着人口、资源与环境矛盾的日益加深,全球各区域的自然灾害成灾次数、经济损失和受灾人口明显增多,自然灾害灾情不断上升,灾害风险已经成为可持续发展的最大障碍。风险、脆弱性、恢复力和适应性相关的灾害综合管理和减灾作为实施可持续发展的重要途径,已被学术界、经济与社会界予以高度重视。在国际减灾十年（IDNDR）活动、国际减灾战略（ISDR）的相继实施的大背景下,国内外学者兴起了研究灾害脆弱性和恢复力的新一轮热潮。目前国内外对承灾体脆弱性的研究较多,但对于灾害恢复力的恢复力研究才刚刚起步,虽然承灾体的恢复力建设近年来也逐渐被认识到是减灾行动中的一个重要环节。20世纪70年代开始,恢复力这一概念首先从力学被引入生态领域,目前,它已经成为生态、灾害和气候变化等多个学科共同关注的对象。对恢复力的概念发展和国内外目前的研究动态进行了较全面的综述,论述了灾害恢复力的科学价值和重要性,分析了灾害脆弱性与灾害恢复力的关系,总结了恢复力评估的主要方法、特点和难点,并在此基础上对灾害恢复力未来研究进行了展望,提出了研究的关键问题并建议进行更深入的研究。     

Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective

Resilience is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of natural disaster systems. This article presents the origin of resilience and provides an overview of its development to date, which draws on the wide literature on ecological science, social science, social–environmental system and natural hazards. From a geographic perspective, the model of disaster resilience of “Loss–Response” of Location (DRLRL) was created and disaster resilience was defined from three dimensional mode, which focused on the spatial, temporal scale of resilience and attributes of hazard-affected bodies. A geographic approach was put forward to measure the disaster resilience, including two properties of inherent resilience and adaptive resilience and a case study was implemented in order to validate this approach. This perspective would offer greater potential in application of resilience concept, especially in the process of integrated risk management and disaster recovery.     

RS and GIS-based Statistical Analysis of Secondary Geological Disasters after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

Using RS and GIS means,this article analyzes the general geological characteristics and the structural belt distribution features in Wenchuan County,Sichuan province,P.R.China as well as the characteristics of the large-scale landslides,mud-rock flows,earthquake lakes,etc.,after the earthquake on May 12,2008.Based on the above work,comprehensive indoor and outdoor research is launched on disaster distribution characteristics and their relationship with earthquakes,terrains, strata,lithology,and structure...     

川西高原活动性滑坡识别与空间分布特征研究

成都平原向西至松潘?甘孜褶皱带完成了从平原到高山峡谷区的转变,区域内起伏落差巨大,地势奇峻,河流下切侵蚀严重,构造活动频繁,地震频发,内外动力作用强烈,地质灾害众多。文章利用覆盖全区的Sentinel-1A升降轨数据以及重点区域的ALOS-2数据进行InSAR技术处理,结合GIS空间分析,对研究区活动性滑坡进行早期识别以及空间分布规律的探索,再辅以部分野外调查佐证,获得了以下认识:研究区滑坡集中分布地区按其诱因可分为水库蓄水诱发灾害区（黑水县毛尔盖水库）、震后破碎山体灾害区（茂县岷江与黑水沟交界、汶川至理县一带、九寨沟至石鸡坝镇一线）和重要河流灾害区（舟曲、腊子口镇、小金县和丹巴县）;区域内活动性滑坡主要分布于千枚岩等变质岩和泥页岩等碎屑岩中;主要地形范围为坡向南东、东、北东向,坡度15°~40°,高程区间1000~3000 m,相对高差>1000 m;主要分布断裂有岷江断裂、玛曲?荷叶断裂、光盖山?迭山北麓断裂和茂汶?汶川断裂。Sentinel-1A升降轨数据的结合,使得有效观测区域提高到研究区面积的73.41%。在川西高原区ALOS-2数据相对优于Sentinel-1A数据,ALOS-2和Sentinel-1A数据在九寨沟和茂县重叠区识别的结果重合率为58.7%和44.8%,识别数量前者分别是后者的3.98倍和1.39倍。