Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).     

Effects of climate change on shallow landslides in a small coastal catchment in southern Italy

In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework.     

Large reactivated landslides in weak rock masses: a case study from the Northern Apennines (Italy)

This case study paper is about a large rotational rock and earth slide—earth flow located in the Secchia River Valley, in the Northern Apennines of Italy, that has displayed multiple reactivation phases between 2002 and 2004. The main geological constraints of the mass movement are related to the overlap of flysch rock masses over clayey complexes that allows rock slides to take place in the source area. The disarrangement and weathering of rock masses following slope movements causes large amount of fine-grained debris to be accumulated on the slope and mobilised by earth sliding and flowing. Analysis of rainfall data at the onset of reactivation events has proved that they occurred after periods with cumulated values higher than the averages of the last 30 years. The quantification of the morphological modifications induced by these reactivations has been made possible by comparing pre- and post-event digital elevation models. Depletion and accumulation has been in the range of 30 m in different parts of the slope. In particular, an advancement of the landslide toe of more than 400 m, which caused a 30-m thick landslide tip to deposit, has been clearly seen. Monitoring data regarding subsurface movements and surface tension crack widening (tension cracks so large as to be properly described at trenches) has shown that sliding surfaces as deep as 43 m exist in the upper part of the landslide, while the accumulation lobe has moved by sliding and flowing over surfaces as deep as some 10 m. Velocities of cm/day have been recorded in the deep surfaces and in widening trenches of the source area, while the advancement of the accumulation lobe has been estimated as having velocities of up to 10 m/day. Groundwater in the landslide body has been observed at depths of 5–15 m in the upper areas, while it is estimated as being at the ground level in the toe. On this basis, it is concluded that the landslide still has a high potential for further development, both in the upper landslide zone and in the toe area.     

Dendrogeomorphological analysis of landslides on the undercut river terrace bank (a case study in Czech Republic)

Landslides - The steep scarps of river terraces surrounding the floodplains of meandering rivers are locations with concentrations of active geomorphic slope processes. Thus, knowledge of their...     

Impacts of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari river basin,Japan

Evidence for climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of Japan is plentiful. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up, calibrated, and validated for the hydrological modeling of the study area. The Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 was used to downscale the large-scale Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 scenarios data into finer scale resolution. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the SDSM-downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to run the calibrated SWAT model for the three future periods: 2030s (2020–2039), 2060s (2050–2069), and 2090s (2080–2099). The period 1981–2000 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that the average annual maximum temperature might increase by 1.80 and 2.01, 3.41 and 3.12, and 5.69 and 3.76 °C, the average annual minimum temperature might increase by 1.41 and 1.49, 2.60 and 2.34, and 4.20 and 2.93 °C, and the average annual precipitation might decrease by 5.78 and 8.08, 10.18 and 12.89, and 17.92 and 11.23% in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The annual mean streamflow may increase for the all three future periods except the 2090s under the A2a scenario. Among them, the largest increase is possibly observed in the 2030s for A2a scenario, up to approximately 7.56%. Uncertainties were found within the GCM, the downscaling method, and the hydrological model itself, which were probably enlarged because only one single GCM (HaDCM3) was used in this study.     

Geometric and kinematic characterization of landslides affecting urban areas: the Lungro case study (Calabria,Southern Italy)

The geometric and kinematic characterization of landslides affecting urban areas is a challenging goal that is routinely pursued via geological/geomorphological method and monitoring of ground displacements achieved by geotechnical and, more recently, advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (A-DInSAR) data. Although the integration of all the above-mentioned methods should be planned a priori to be more effective, datasets resulting from the independent use of these different methods are commonly available, thus making crucial the need for their standardized a posteriori integration. In this regard, the present paper aims to provide a contribution by introducing a procedure that, taking into account the specific limits of geological/geomorphological analyses and deep/surface ground displacement monitoring via geotechnical and A-DInSAR data, allows the a posteriori integration of the results by exploiting their complementarity for landslide characterization. The approach was tested in the urban area of Lungro village (Calabria region, southern Italy), which is characterized by complex geological/geomorphological settings, widespread landslides and peculiar urban fabric. In spite of the different level of information preliminarily available for each landslide as result of the independent use of the three methods, the implementation of the proposed procedure allowed a better understanding and typifying of the geometry and kinematics of 50 landslides. This provided part of the essential background for geotechnical landslide models to be used for slope stability analysis within landslide risk mitigation strategies.     

Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK

Global change is expected to result in worldwide increases in temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns. Such changes have the potential to modify stability of slopes, both natural and constructed. This paper discusses the potential effect of global climate change on reactivation of landslides through examination of predicted changes in rainfall pattern on the active landslide at Mam Tor, Derbyshire, UK. This landslide is of Pleistocene origin and is crossed by a road that is now abandoned. Damaging winter movement is known to occur when precipitation reaches both 1-month triggering and 6-month antecedent thresholds. Return periods for threshold exceedence is modelled statistically, and the climate change data from the UKCIP 2002 report (Hulme et al. 2002) is applied to this model. For the predicted changes in precipitation, it is shown that the instability threshold could decrease from 4 to 3.5 years by the 2080s for the medium–high climate change scenario. However, predicted temperature changes could influence the response of the landslide through increased evapotranspiration leading to a change in the triggering precipitation thresholds, and this will help counter the impact of changes in precipitation. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in the model has been used to establish the factors that contribute to the predicted changes in stability. Assessment of these factors can provide an indication of the potential impact of climate change on landslides in other areas of the UK.     

Early to mid‐Holocene climate change at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy): climate signal or anthropogenic bias?

Despite the high potential of pollen records for climate reconstruction, pollen–climate relationships may be biased due to past and present human activities on the landscape. We use (i) transfer functions based on modern pollen–climate relationships to infer seasonal temperature and summer precipitation for the period 11 500–4500 cal. a BP and (ii) lake‐level change records based on different sedimentary proxies in multiple cores that are mainly indicative for summer hydrology at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy). Quantitative reconstructions indicate lowest summer precipitation during two phases (8500–7700 cal. a BP and after 6000 cal. a BP) and a gradual winter temperature increase from 11 500 to ca. 8000 cal. a BP. Lowest summer precipitation was reconstructed during these phases characterised by vegetation shifts from open forests dominated by summergreen oaks (Quercus) to forests dominated by evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex), which are at present most abundant where summer drought is stronger. Similarly, the lake‐level record indicates two long‐lasting low summer precipitation phases (8800–7700 and 6400–4400 cal. a BP) that were interrupted by short‐term high summer precipitation events. Based on the broad agreement between the pollen‐inferred summer precipitation and the low‐frequency lake‐level changes, we suggest that the duration of the high summer precipitation events may have been too short to maintain drought‐sensitive trees, which may have been affected by high mortality rates when summer dry conditions returned. Although past and modern pollen–climate relationships may very likely have been affected by human activities since the Neolithic (i.e. when exploitation of the landscape started), we reject the hypothesis of a significant anthropogenic bias in the pollen‐based climate reconstruction. In addition, we suggest that pollen‐based and lake‐level reconstructions may have different inherent abilities of capturing high‐ and low‐frequency precipitation signals. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理

利用可变下渗容量(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)模型,在海河流域选取了6个典型流域来率定VIC模型的参数。通过模型参数移植技术,建立了全流域的径流模拟平台。根据假定的气候变化情景,分析了海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明:在年平均气温升高2℃时,海河流域的径流量将减少6.5%;当年降水量增加或者减少10%时,海河流域的径流量将分别增加26%和减少23%;当汛期降水占年降水量的比例分别增加或者减少10%时,全流域的径流量将会增加12%或者减少7%;在空间上,在年平均气温升高和年降水量变化的情景下,海河流域西北部的河川径流比东南部更敏感;在降水年内分配变化的情景下,海河流域东南部的河川径流比西北部更敏感。总体上,年降水量越大,径流量对降水量的敏感性越小,对平均气温的敏感性也越小,而对降水年内分配的敏感性越大。     

气候变化对澜湄流域气象水文干旱时空特性的影响

受全球气候变化影响,澜沧江-湄公河流域气象水文干旱发生了较大变化,预测未来流域干旱的时空变化与传播特征是应对气候变化、开展澜湄水资源合作的基础。利用SWAT模型通过气陆耦合方式模拟了澜沧江-湄公河流域历史（1960—2005年）和未来时期（2022—2050年,2051—2080年）的水文过程,采用标准化降水指数和标准化径流指数预估并分析了流域未来气象水文干旱时空变化趋势。结果表明:①澜沧江-湄公河流域未来降水呈增长趋势,气象干旱将有所缓解,但降水年内分配不均与流域蒸发的增加,将导致水文干旱更为严峻,干旱从气象到水文的传播过程加剧;②水文干旱具有明显的空间异质性,允景洪和清盛站的水文干旱最为严重,琅勃拉邦、穆达汉和巴色站次之,万象站最弱;③未来流域水文干旱事件发生频次略有减少,但其中重旱、特旱事件占比增加,极端干旱将趋多趋强,且空间变化更加显著。     

三川河流域水资源演变个例研究

以三川河流域为例,应用WEP-L分布式水文模型和集总式流域水资源调配模型偶合而成的二元水循环模型,模拟了不同情景下流域水循环过程.在此基础上,定量分析了降水、人工取用水以及下垫面条件这三个主要驱动因子对流域水资源演变的影响.在模型中保持其它条件不变,仅以改变降水、人工取用水及下垫面条件来模拟种不同情景的水循环:情景1,1956-1979年降水系列、2000年下垫面、无人工取用水;情景2,190-2000年降水系列、2000年下垫面、无人工取用水;情景3,1956-2000年降水系列、2000年下垫面、无人工取用水;情景4,1956-2000年降水系列、2000年下垫面、有人工取用水;情景5,1956-2000年降水系列、1956-2000年系列模拟下垫面、无人工取用水;情景6,1956-2000年降水系列、2000下垫面、无人工取用水;情景7,1956-1979年降水系列、1956-1979年系列模拟下垫面、无人工取用水;情景;190-2000年降水系列、2000年下垫面、有人工取用水.情景2和情境1比较,发现降水单项因子减少4.5%引起各种口径水资源量的减少,地表水资源量减少1.4%,地下与地表水资源不重复量15.%,狭义水资源量1.3%,有效蒸散发量2.1%,广义水资源量4.6%.情景4和情境3比较得出,在人工取用水单项因子作用下,地表水资源量减少4.6%,而地下与地表水资源不重复量增加113.5%,在狭义水资源量减少0.4%的同时,伴随有效蒸散发量增加0.9%,广义水资源量增加0.7%.情景6和情境5对比,发现在下垫面条件单项因子作用下,狭义水资源量及其构成地表水资源量和地下与地表水资源不重复量分别减少4.3%、4.3%和2.%,有效蒸散发量增加7.1%,广义水资源量增加5.3%.情景和情境7对比分析得出,三个因子对水资源量的综合影响是,地表水资源量减少30.6%,地下与地表水资源不重复量增加114.5%,狭义水资源量减少25.%,有效蒸散发量增加6.7%,广义水资源量增加1.1%.研究成果对于其它流域水资源演变规律研究具有参考价值.     

神府东胜矿区煤炭开采对水资源的影响机制——以窟野河流域为例

研究神府东胜矿区煤炭开采对水资源的影响机制,对于保护当地水资源及脆弱的生态环境具有重要意义。以窟野河为例,分析了煤炭开采对该流域水资源量与水质的影响机制,并计算出吨煤开采的基流损失量约为2.038 m³(1997—2005年)。研究结果表明,煤炭开采时形成的裂隙将萨拉乌苏组含水层中的水导入矿坑中,导致潜水由水平径流、排泄为主转化为以垂向渗漏为主,引发地下水位大幅下降,河流基流量减少以及泉流量衰减甚至干枯;煤炭开采使含水层中的水进入到矿坑,在物理作用和化学作用下形成硬度更大、矿化度更高的矿坑水,矿坑水排入河流后对河流造成污染。     

Landslides as a geomorphological proxy for climate change: A record from the Dolomites (northern Italy)

The periphery of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is renowned for its susceptibility to landslides. However, the northwestern margin of this region, characterised by limited human activities and challenging transportation, remains insufficiently explored concerning landslide occurrence and dispersion. With the planning and construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, a comprehensive investigation into disastrous landslides in this area is essential for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. By using the human-computer interaction interpretation approach, the authors established a landslide database encompassing 13003 landslides, collectively spanning an area of 3351.24 km² (36°N-40°N, 73°E-78°E). The database incorporates diverse topographical and environmental parameters, including regional elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, distance to faults, distance to roads, distance to rivers, annual precipitation, and stratum. The statistical characteristics of number and area of landslides, landslide number density (LND), and landslide area percentage (LAP) are analyzed. The authors found that a predominant concentration of landslide origins within high slope angle regions, with the highest incidence observed in intervals characterised by average slopes of 20° to 30°, maximum slope angle above 80°, along with orientations towards the north (N), northeast (NE), and southwest (SW). Additionally, elevations above 4.5 km, distance to rivers below 1 km, rainfall between 20‒30 mm and 30‒40 mm emerge as particularly susceptible to landslide development. The study area’s geological composition primarily comprises Mesozoic and Upper Paleozoic outcrops. Both fault and human engineering activities have different degrees of influence on landslide development. Furthermore, the significance of the landslide database, the relationship between landslide distribution and environmental factors, and the geometric and morphological characteristics of landslides are discussed. The landslide H/L ratios in the study area are mainly concentrated between 0.4 and 0.64. It means the landslides mobility in the region is relatively low, and the authors speculate that landslides in this region more possibly triggered by earthquakes or located in meizoseismal area.