Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.     

Critical parameter investigation for earthquake hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

Probabilistic methods have been applied for the assessment of seismic hazard in a selected region of Southern Italy (Sannio-Matese). This method is mainly suitable for engineering and planning purposes and was first introduced in 1968 by Cornell and efficiently codified into a FORTRAN computer program by McGuire. Special attention is paid in this paper to the specific input parameters, i.e. completeness of data catalogues, time variability of seismic activity, different forms of frequency distributions, and regional attenuation characteristics.     

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

New morpho-bathymetric data on marine hazard in the offshore of Gulf of Naples (Southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - Morpho-bathymetric data have been analyzed in order to provide new geological evidence on the Gulf of Naples, i.e., on the southern Ischia slope, on the Naples canyons and on the...     

Assessment of seismic hazard for the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy — A summary

The working group on Test Regions for Evaluation of Methods for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe (TERESA), consisted of 15 members from 10 different European countries. Methods and experience gathered in these countries have been compared and discussed for two test areas in Europe: the Sannio-Matese region, Southern Italy, with high seismic activity, and the border region between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Federal Republic of Germany, with low activity.This paper summarizes the results for one of the test areas, Sannio-Matese. Most of the participants used statistical procedures to assess earthquake hazard, receiving results in terms of probability of occurrence for intensity as the ground-motion parameter. It was found that careful preparation of input data and parameters is the major influencing factor, therefore most of the efforts of the working group was devoted to this task.The scatter of the obtained results of the group is considerable, mainly because of the uncertainties in the data and the subjectiveness involved in the procedures. For better control of both factors, more objective methods have to be developed.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Different approaches to the seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese (Southern Italy)

The seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese is calculated using a new seismogenetic zoning of southern Italy of seven areas and different, azimuth-dependent, attenuation laws. Various approaches (Gumbel's first and third asymptotic distribution, Cornell) lead to similar results for the different exposure times considered (100 and 200 years) and probability levels (37 and 68%). The present seismic regulation proposed in 1980 by the Italian National Council for Researches, and based on a different approach, is, in general, confirmed by the results.     

Finite-element simulations of the 28 december 1908 Messina Straits (Southern Italy) tsunami

The earthquake we are dealing with occurred on December 28, 1908: because of the number of victims (about 60,000) and the extension of the destroyed area (6,000 km²), this earthquake with the epicentral MCS intensity XI may be considered the strongest event ever reported for Italy along with the 1693 eastern Sicily earthquake. The shock produced a large tsunami that caused severe damage and many victims. In all places the first sea movement was a withdrawal for a few minutes, followed by a flooding of the coast with at least three big waves. A post-event survey allowed to estimate flooding and run-up heights (more than 10 m in some places). In this work we perform some numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation, taking into account different source faults: the model is based on the shallow water equations, solved numerically by means of a finiteelement method. The computational domain, covered by a mesh consisting of triangular elements, includes the Messina Straits and the sea facing the northeastern coast of Sicily and southern Calabria.     

The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy)

Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected.

The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides.

The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation.     

Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy)

We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation.     

On macroseismic attenuation parameters in the comparison of theoretical seismic hazard maps for Southern Calabria and Eastern Sicily (Southern Italy)

For two different zonations of the Calabro-Sicilian region the macroseismic intensity attenuation parameters are computed using the Grandori model.Some modifications to this relation are proposed here in order to allow its applicability also to those cases in which the data set available for each source zone does not present three successive epicentral intensity levels (I ₀) as required for its application.Maps of theoretical distribution of maximum expected intensities were plotted for both zonations adopted, in order to test the reliability, also using other attenuation models.The results of the analysis show how the proposed modifications to the Grandori relation allow the macroseismic intensity attenuation modelling even in cases in which only one intensity level is available.Finally, the comparison of theoretical maximum expected intensity distribution maps, computed for different attenuation models and seismogenic zonations, shows that the maps plotted using the Grandori model and the zonation adopted by G.N.D.T. (Gruppo Nazionale Difesa dai Terremoti - C.N.R. Italy) are more reliable.     

Contribution to knowledge regarding the sources of earthquakes on the island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - This paper analyses data regarding the seismicity and ground deformations of the island of Ischia. The goal is to describe these phenomena as a space–time process, exploring...     

Geochemistry of fluids discharged over the seismic area of the Southern Apennines (Calabria region,Southern Italy): Implications for Fluid-Fault relationships

The first comprehensive geochemical data-set of the fluids circulating over a 14,000 km²-wide seismic-prone area of the Southern Apennines, Calabria Region (Italy), is presented here. The geochemical investigations were carried out with the twofold aim of constraining the origin and interactions of the circulating fluids and to investigate possible relationships with local faults. Sixty samples of both thermal and cold waters were collected, from which the dissolved gases were extracted. The geochemical features of the water samples display different types and degrees of water–rock interactions, irrespective of the outlet temperature. The calculated equilibrium temperatures of the thermal waters (60–160 °C) and the low heat flow of the whole study area, are consistent with a heating process due to deep water circulation and rapid upflow through lithospheric structures. The composition of the dissolved gases reveals that crustal-originating gases (N₂ and CO₂-dominated) feed all the groundwaters. The ³He/⁴He ratios of the dissolved He, in the range of 0.03–0.22Ra_c for the thermal waters and 0.05–0.63Ra_c for the cold waters (Ra_c = He isotope ratio corrected for atmospheric contamination), are mainly the result of a two-component (radiogenic and atmospheric) mixing, although indications of mantle-derived He are found in some cold waters. As the study area had been hit by 18 of the most destructive earthquakes (magnitude ranging from 5.9 to 7.2) occurring over a 280-a time span (1626–1908) in the Southern Apennines, the reported results on the circulating fluids may represent the reference for a better inside knowledge of the fault-fluid relationships and for the development of long-term geochemical monitoring strategies for the area.     

Analysis of seismic hazard in landslide-prone regions: criteria and example for an area of Daunia (southern Italy)

In relation to the assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, this paper discusses general principles and describes implementation criteria for seismic hazard estimates in landslide-prone regions. These criteria were worked out during the preparation of a hazard map belonging to the official Italian geological cartography and they are proposed as guidelines for future compilation of similar maps. In the presented case study, we used a procedure for the assessment of seismic hazard impact on slope stability adopting Arias intensity Ia as seismic shaking parameter and critical acceleration a _c as parameter representing slope strength to failures induced by seismic shaking. According to this procedure, after a preliminary comparison of estimated historical maximum values of Ia with values proposed in literature as landslide-triggering thresholds, a probabilistic approach, based on the Newmark’s model, is adopted: it allows to estimate the minimum critical acceleration a _c required for a slope to keep under a prefixed value, the probability of failures induced by seismic shakings expected in a given time interval. In this way, one can prepare seismic hazard maps where seismic shaking is expressed in an indirect way through a parameter (the critical acceleration) representing the “strength” that seismic shakings mobilise in slope materials (strength demand) with a prefixed exceedance probability. This approach was applied to an area of Daunia (Apulia—southern Italy) affected by frequent landslide phenomena. The obtained results indicate that shakings with a significant slope destabilisation potential can be expected particularly in the north-western part of the area, which is exposed to the seismic activity of Apennine tectonic structures.     

Geochemistry and potential use of groundwater in the Rocca Busambra area (Sicily, Italy)

In the Rocca Busambra area (mid-west Sicily, Italy), from November 1999 to July 2002, 23 water points including wells and springs were sampled and studied for their chemical and isotopic compositions. Two rain gauges were also installed at different altitudes, and rainwater was collected monthly to determine the isotopic composition. The obtained results revealed the Rocca Busambra carbonate complex as being the main recharge area on account of its high permeability value. From a chemical view point, two main groups of water can be distinguished: calcium–magnesium–bicarbonate-type and calcium–magnesium–chloride–sulphate-type waters. The first group reflects the dissolution of the carbonate rocks; the second group probably originates from circulation within flyschoid sediments. Three water wells differ from the other samples due to their relatively high Na and K content, which probably is to be referred to a marked interaction with the “Calcareniti di Corleone” formation, which is rich in glauconite [(K, Na)(Fe³⁺, Al, Mg)₂(Si, Al)₄O₁₀(OH)₂]. In accordance with WHO guidelines for drinking water (2004), almost all the samples collected can be considered drinkable, with the exception of four of them, whose NO₃ ⁻, F⁻ and Na⁺ contents exceed the limits. On the contrary, the sampled groundwater studied is basically suitable for irrigation.     

Application of the Swiss Federal Guidelines on rock fall hazard: a case study in the Cilento region (Southern Italy)

On December 15, 2008, a rock slide of approximately 4,000 m³ occurred near San Severino di Centola (Cilento, Province of Salerno). The landslide occurred along very steep bedding planes intersected by tectonic joints affecting a rocky cliff. The landslide debris, formed by several boulders, came to a halt along the gentler slope below. Many blocks reached the slope base including the national road n° 562 and injuring a motorist on the road. Furthermore, the road suffered heavy damages causing a halt in traffic for many weeks. Several signs of the impacts were detected along the slope and on the road; also, the volumes of some boulders were measured. The area affected by block trajectories stretch down slope about 4,900 m². By means of 2D and 3D trajectory codes using the “lumped-mass” method, it was possible to estimate more suitable impact energy restitution and rolling friction coefficients, to reconstruct rock fall trajectories, and to calculate total kinetic energies. Extending to the surrounding slope (surface about 2 ha) these data, a hazard scenario was carried out, displaying the pattern of iso-energy distribution curves calculated along 11 critical profiles, and zones exposed to 70% and 30% of frequencies of block transits and endpoints. Successively, with reference to the Swiss Federal Guidelines, another scenario was prepared on the basis of rock fall intensity values and the return period of the 2008 landslide event. In this way, it was possible to define areas of high, moderate and low hazard. The degrees of hazard are assigned according to their consequences for construction activity and outline zones where additional protection is required. The construction of a retaining embankment was believed suitable for local risk mitigation.     

Parametrical landslide modeling for the hydrogeological susceptibility assessment: from the Crati Valley to the Cavallerizzo landslide (Southern Italy)

The article deals with a tool for landslides susceptibility assessment as a function of the hydrogeological setting at different scales. The study has been applied to a test area located in Southern Italy. First, a 3D groundwater flow model was implemented for a large-scale area. The simulation of several groundwater conditions compared with the landslide activity map allows drawing a hydrogeological susceptibility map. Then, a slope scale analysis was carried out for the Cavallerizzo landslide. For this purpose, a 2D groundwater parametrical modeling was coupled with a slope stability analysis; the simulation was carried out by changing the values of the main hydrogeological parameters (recharge, groundwater supply level, etc.). The results enabled to connect the slope instability to some hydrogeological characteristics that are easy to survey and to monitor (e.g., rainfall, piezometrical level, and spring discharge), pointing out the hazard thresholds with regards to different triggering phenomena.     

Short- and long-term gas hazard: the release of toxic gases in the Alban Hills volcanic area (central Italy)

In the Alban Hills area, strong areally diffuse and localised spot degassing processes occur (Tivoli, Cava dei Selci, Solforata, Tor Caldara). The gas comprises a large proportion of CO₂, with minor CH₄, H₂S and Rn. These advective features are generated by fluid leakage from buried reservoirs hosted in the structural highs of the Mesozoic carbonate basement. Gas migration towards the surface is controlled by fault and fracture systems bordering the structural highs of the carbonate formations (e.g. Ciampino high). His release is triggered when the total pressure of the fluid phase exceeds the hydrostatic pressure, thus forming a free gas phase. Furthermore, both the sudden and catastrophic, and slow and continuous gas release at surface, of naturally occurring toxic species (CO₂, H₂S and Rn) poses a serious health risk to people living in this geologically active area.This paper presents data obtained from soil gas and gas flux surveys, as well as gas isotopes analyses, which suggest the presence of a deep origin gas flux enriched in carbon dioxide and minor species (CH₄ and H₂S), as well as a channelled migration of geogas mixtures having a Rn component which is not produced in situ.In regards to the health risk to local inhabitants, it was found that some anomalous areas had been zoned as parkland while others had been heavily developed for residential purposes. For example, many new houses were found to have been built on ground which has soil gas CO₂ concentrations of over 70% and a CO₂ flux of about 0.7 kg m⁻² day⁻¹, as well as radon values of more than 250 kBq/m³. In addition, an indoor radon survey has been conducted in selected houses in the town of Cava dei Selci to search for a possible correlation between the local geology and the radon concentration in indoor air. Preliminary results indicate high indoor values at ground floor levels (up to 1000 Bq/m³) and very high values in the cellars (up to 250.000 Bq/m³). It is recommended that land-use planners incorporate soil gas and/or gas flux measurements in the environmental assessment of areas of possible risk (i.e. volcanic or structurally active areas).     

A hydrogeological conceptual model of the Suio hydrothermal area (central Italy)

A hydrogeological conceptual model has been developed that describes the hydrothermal system of Suio Terme (central Italy). The studied area is located along the peri-Tyrrhenian zone of the central Apennines, between the Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate platform sequences of the Aurunci Mountains and the volcanic sequences of the Roccamonfina. A multi-disciplinary approach was followed, using new hydrogeological surveys, the interpretation of stratigraphic logs of boreholes and water wells, and geophysical data—seismic sections, shear-wave velocity (Vs) crustal model and gravimetric model. The collected information allowed for construction of a conceptual hydrogeological model and characterization of the hydrothermal system. The Suio hydrothermal system is strongly influenced by the Eastern Aurunci hydrostructure. Along the southeastern side, the top of the hydrostructure sinks to ?1,000 m relative to sea level via a series of normal faults which give origin to the Garigliano graben. Geological and hydrogeological data strongly suggest the propagation and mixing of hot fluids, with cold waters coming from the shallow karst circuit. The aquitard distribution, the normal tectonic displacements and the fracturing of the karst hydrostructure strongly influence the hydrothermal basin. Carbon dioxide and other gasses play a key role in the whole circuit, facilitating the development of the hydrothermal system. The current level of knowledge suggests that the origin of the Suio hydrothermalism is the result of interaction between the carbonate reservoir of the Eastern Aurunci Mountains and the hot and deep crust of this peri-Tyrrhenian sector, where the Roccamonfina volcano represents the shallowest expression.     

Rockfall trajectory modeling combined with heuristic analysis for assessing the rockfall hazard along the Maratea SS18 coastal road (Basilicata,Southern Italy)

In this paper, a study aimed to assess the rockfall hazard along a portion of the SS18 coastal road, located in the coastal area of Maratea (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy), is presented. The relevance of this study derives from the location of the study area, because the SS18 is a strategic roads in a touristic area, and, since the hazard assessment was performed in 2004 within a project financed by the Viability Regional Department of Autonomous National Company of Roads (ANAS), from the possibility to validate the results by using real rockfall events occurred after 2004. The procedure for assessing the rockfall hazard was composed of four sequential analyses: (i) geomechanical and kinematic characterization of rock mass, (ii) implementation of Romana’s (1985) Slope Mass Rating (SMR) method for identifying the potential boulder release areas (rockfall initiation areas), (iii) determination of rockfall trajectories by using a 3D numerical model (ROTOMAP), (iv) calculation and mapping of the hazard index by combining three factors, i.e., (a) lithological features of outcropping materials on rock faces, (b) kinematic compatibility defined by simulating the rockfall trajectories, and (c) spatial distribution of occurred rockfall events. Finally, the proposed methodology was validated by combining the distribution of the hazard levels along the road with the location on the SS18 of the rockfall events occurred from 2004 to 2014.