A visibility-based assessment of tsunami evacuation signs in Seaside,Oregon

Tsunami risk mitigation programs often include iconic evacuation signage to direct locals and visitors to safety during a tsunami event. This paper examines sign placement in Seaside, Oregon, from a visibility perspective. It leverages existing visibility analysis methodologies characterize the visibility of the community’s evacuation signage and reveals patterns in the viewable landscape. Additionally, we develop a topologically 3D approach to visibility analysis using raw LiDAR datasets. This applied work situates a discussion on existing patterns of visibility, how to improve existing signage placement, 2D and 3D representation of landscape, and the importance of visibility analysis. This work aims to stimulate discussion and development of hazard research that incorporates a visibility perspective.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Correction to: A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Natural Hazards - In the Abstract, the sentence “Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g.,...     

An assessment of educational tsunami evacuation map designs in Washington and Oregon

Educational tsunami evacuation map brochures in Washington and Oregon have been developed locally, resulting in significant differences between the types of tsunami hazard information they include. This paper identifies six tsunami hazard information types present in 38 brochures in Washington and Oregon: (1) tsunami hazard zone, (2) road network, (3) assembly areas, (4) evacuation guidance, (5) infrastructure, and (6) terrain. It compares and contrasts these information types in the maps and text of six of the brochures, including a proposed design standard in Oregon. Design differences of all 38 brochure maps are then organized using principles of cartographic abstraction, which describe mapmaker decisions about selection, generalization, and symbolization of information. We further use this framework to situate the information content of a new interactive Google Maps tool in Oregon. Our assessment identifies limitations of current tsunami hazard information that may be relevant to improving tsunami education. In theory, more advanced evacuation map tools can play an important role in reducing the limitations of tsunami hazard information relevant to the public. The new Google Maps tool addresses few of these limitations. Recognizing how map-making decisions define the underlying information content of evacuation maps can facilitate much needed future evaluations and developments in evacuation map design.     

Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.     

Reconstructing hydrodynamic flow parameters of the 1700 tsunami at Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA

Coastal communities in the western United States face risks of inundation by distant tsunamis that propagate across the Pacific Ocean as well as local tsunamis produced by great (M_w?>?8) earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. In 1964, the M_w 9.2 Alaska earthquake launched a Pacific-wide tsunami that flooded Cannon Beach, a small community (population 1640) in northwestern Oregon, causing over $230,000 in damages. However, since the giant 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Chile tsunami and the recent 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami, renewed concern over potential impacts of a Cascadia tsunami on the western US has motivated closer examination of the local hazard. This study applies a simple sediment transport model to reconstruct the flow speed of the most recent Cascadia tsunami that flooded the region in 1700 using the thickness and grain size of sand layers deposited by the waves. Sedimentary properties of sand from the 1700 tsunami deposit provide model inputs. The sediment transport model calculates tsunami flow speed from the shear velocity required to suspend the quantity and grain size distribution of the observed sand layers. The model assumes a steady, spatially uniform tsunami flow and that sand settles out of suspension forming a deposit when the flow velocity decreases to zero. Using flow depths constrained by numerical tsunami simulations for Cannon Beach, the sediment transport model calculated flow speeds of 6.5?C7.6?m/s for sites within 0.6?km of the beach and higher flow speeds (~8.8?m/s) for sites 0.8?C1.2?km inland. Flow speed calculated for sites within 0.6?km of the beach compare well with maximum velocities estimated for the largest tsunami simulation. The higher flow speeds calculated for the two sites furthest landward contrast with much lower maximum velocities (<3.8?m/s) predicted by numerical simulations. Grain size distributions of sand layers from the most distal sites are inconsistent with deposition from sediment falling out of suspension. We infer that rapid deceleration in tsunami flow and convergences in sediment transport formed unusually thick deposits. Consequently, higher flow speeds calculated by the sediment model probably overestimate the actual wave speed at sites furthest inland.     

Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages,losses, risks,and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside,Oregon

This paper presents a methodology to deaggregate the results of a multi-hazard damage analysis by extending the traditional multi-hazard damage analysis to consider both population characteristics and independent hazards. The methodology is applied to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon, considering four infrastructure systems: (1) buildings, (2) transportation network, (3) electric power network and (4) water supply network. Damages to all infrastructure systems are evaluated, and the networked infrastructures are used to inform parcel connectivity to critical facilities. US Census data and a probabilistic housing unit allocation method are implemented to assign detailed household demographic characteristics at the parcel level. Six dimensions of deaggregation are introduced: (1) spatial, (2) hazard type, (3) hazard intensity, (4) infrastructure system, (5) infrastructure component, and (6) housing unit characteristics. The damages, economic losses and risks, and connectivity to critical facilities are deaggregated across these six dimensions. The results show that deaggregated economic loss and risk plots can allow community resilience planners the ability to isolate high-risk events, as well as provide insights into the underlying driving forces. Geospatial representation of the results allows for the identification of both vulnerable buildings and areas within a community and is highlighted by the spatial pattern of parcel disconnection from critical facilities. The incorporation of population characteristics provides an understanding of how hazards disproportionately impact population subgroups and can aide in equitable resilience planning.

     

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

Natural Hazards - Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been...     

A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

     

Post-fire geomorphic response in steep,forested landscapes: Oregon Coast Range,USA

The role of fire in shaping steep, forested landscapes depends on a suite of hydrologic, biologic, and geological characteristics, including the propensity for hydrophobic soil layers to promote runoff erosion during subsequent rainfall events. In the Oregon Coast Range, several studies postulate that fire primarily modulates sediment production via root reinforcement and shallow landslide susceptibility, although few studies have documented post-fire geomorphic response. Here, we describe field observations and topographic analyses for three sites in the central Oregon Coast Range that burned in 1999, 2002, and 2003. The fires generated strongly hydrophobic soil layers that did not promote runoff erosion because the continuity of the layers was interrupted by pervasive discontinuities that facilitated rapid infiltration. At each of our sites, fire generated significant colluvial transport via dry ravel, consistent with other field-based studies in the western United States. Fire-driven dry ravel accumulation in low-order valleys of our Sulphur Creek site equated to a slope-averaged landscape lowering of 2.5 mm. Given Holocene estimates of fire frequency, these results suggest that fire may contribute 10–20% of total denudation across steep, dissected portions of the Oregon Coast Range. In addition, we documented more rapid decline of root strength at our sites than has been observed after timber harvest, suggesting that root strength was compromised prior to fire or that intense heat damaged roots in the shallow subsurface. Given that fire frequencies in the Pacific Northwest are predicted to increase with continued climate change, our findings highlight the importance of fire-induced dry ravel and post-fire debris flow activity in controlling sediment delivery to channels.     

Awareness of tsunami natural warning signs and intended evacuation behaviors in Java,Indonesia

Natural Hazards - The south coast of Java has a long history of deadly seismogenic tsunamis. The most recent tsunami events in 1994 and 2006 killed hundreds due to lack of awareness and...     

Coastal geologic hazards and land-use planning in northwestern Oregon

Detailed mapping of geology-related development risks was completed for seven small, relatively remote communities along the northern Oregon coast in Clatsop and Tillamook counties. More than 45 previously unmapped, active landslides up to 20 km² in area were mapped along one 15-km section of the 26 km of coastline studied Additional geologic constraints to land use in the study area include marine erosion, ocean and estuarine flooding, wind erosion of dune areas, soil erosion, and, in one community, soil piping Recommendations made on the basis of this mapping were incorporated into comprehensive land-use plans prepared by each community as required by the State of Oregon The principal changes in land-use regulations in the area obtained from this investigation are the rezoning of large tracts of undeveloped land to better reflect geologic limitations, the requiring of site-specific studies by licensed geotechnical experts for developments proposed in certain hazardous areas, the adoption of Chapter 70 of the Uniform Building Code by several communities, and the addition of numerous special regulations on site preparation methods This article shows that geologic data of sufficient detail can be effectively incorporated into local land-use plans when required by state law This is facillitated when state and federal agencies provide good regional geologic information and land-use planning guidelines.     

Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside,Oregon

Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 M_W with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions

Natural Hazards - In the early hours of January 23, 2018, residents of Port Alberni, British Columbia, Canada, awoke to the sounds of the community’s tsunami warning system, alerting them of...     

Sedimentation in epithermal veins of the Bohemia mining district,Oregon, USA: Interpretations and significance

Open spaces in epithermal veins of the Bohemia mining district, Oregon, USA, filled with sediments during hydrothermal activity. These sediments consist mainly of chalcedony, rock fragments, and vein quartz fragments. In addition, hematite is deposited during stage three of the vein development. Observed sedimentary features include draping laminae, erosion surfaces, slumping, and graded bedding. Such sediments can be used for reconstruction of the original orientation of vein systems, because the sediment laminae are initially deposited horizontally. Vein sediments record variations in fluid flow due to self-sealing, fracturing, and cessation of hydrothermal activity. Investigation of vein sediments therefore provides an additional tool to unravel the geologic history of epithermal systems. The chalcedonic vein sediments record large temperature drops and highly silica supersaturated waters, probably due to fracturing and pressure release. Hematitic vein sediments indicate sulfide deficient hydrothermal fluids.     

Kinematics, mechanics, and potential earthquake hazards for faults in Pottawatomie County, Kansas, USA

Many stable continental regions have subregions with poorly defined earthquake hazards. Analysis of minor structures (folds and faults) in these subregions can improve our understanding of the tectonics and earthquake hazards. Detailed structural mapping in Pottawatomie County has revealed a suite consisting of two uplifted blocks aligned along a northeast trend and surrounded by faults. The first uplift is located southwest of the second. The northwest and southeast sides of these uplifts are bounded by northeast-trending right-lateral faults. To the east, both uplifts are bounded by north-trending reverse faults, and the first uplift is bounded by a north-trending high-angle fault to the west. The structural suite occurs above a basement fault that is part of a series of north–northeast-trending faults that delineate the Humboldt Fault Zone of eastern Kansas, an integral part of the Midcontinent Rift System. The favored kinematic model is a contractional stepover (push-up) between echelon strike-slip faults. Mechanical modeling using the boundary element method supports the interpretation of the uplifts as contractional stepovers and indicates that an approximately east–northeast maximum compressive stress trajectory is responsible for the formation of the structural suite. This stress trajectory suggests potential activity during the Laramide Orogeny, which agrees with the age of kimberlite emplacement in adjacent Riley County. The current stress field in Kansas has a N85°W maximum compressive stress trajectory that could potentially produce earthquakes along the basement faults. Several epicenters of seismic events (<M2.0) are located within 10 km of the structural suite. One epicenter is coincident with the northwest boundary of the uplift. This structural suite, a contractional stepover between echelon northeast-trending right-lateral faults, is similar to that mapped in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and both areas currently feature roughly east–west maximum compressive stress trajectory. Based on these similarities, the faults in Pottawatomie County have the potential for seismicity. The results demonstrate that mechanical analysis of minor structural features can improve our knowledge of local earthquake hazards.     

The 1979 nice airport tsunami: mapping of the flood in Antibes

On 16 October 1979, a tsunami of a local origin hits the French Riviera around Nice, France, killing 8 people and generating important economic losses. Its impact was felt from Hyères to Menton, France. The main effect of this tsunami was flooding in the neighborhoods of La Salis and La Garoupe, Antibes, France. A synthesis of unpublished reports written in the context of an administrative investigation was conducted. Various archives were also consulted (newspapers, fire and rescue unit reports, insurance reports, etc.), and a field survey was organized in 2009 to record testimonies from the inhabitants who witnessed the flood in La Salis, Antibes, the area where the effects of the tsunami were the greatest. A geo-database of the neighborhood of La Salis was built using available aerial imagery, land cover data and digital terrain models, to reconstruct the surface of the flooded area as it was in 1979 and as it is now. Comparing precise testimonies and the 1979 topographic information available allowed the authors to precisely map the flood and to deduce the runup values which reached 3.5 m locally, with a maximal distance of flooding of 150 m inland. This paper provides modelers with precious information about the extent of flooding and the time sequence in order to reconstitute the propagation and flooding of the 16 October 1979 tsunami. This information highlights the fact that the French Riviera is a low hazard, but high vulnerability area.