A methodology for urban micro-scale coastal flood vulnerability and risk assessment and mapping

Natural Hazards - Wind gusts are a major cause of damage to property and the natural environment and a source of noise in seismic networks such as the USArray Transportable Array. Wind gusts cause...     

Flash flood vulnerability assessment for small catchments with a material flow approach

Destructions resulted from natural hazards like earthquake, landslide, or flood in the urban roads and lifelines introduce their negative effects including the psychological damage to citizens as well as decreased urban functions that usually last for a long time. Thus, a quick and efficient recovery of infrastructures, lifelines, and service-providing facilities along with reducing reconstruction costs and time are essential. This paper proposed an approach that consists of four models for forming an algorithm in order to quantitating and integrating of the criteria that have decisive influence in the recovery of urban roadways after a natural disaster. Meanwhile, to aggregate and conclude the data that are collected by means of presented functions and formulations, we applied fuzzy VIKOR technique as a compromise ranking method. The model outputs a priority list showing the revival of which urban paths stands in higher priority for recovery operation after a natural disaster. Results show that not only the model is able to precisely quantize the selected criteria and provide an action plan for post-event recovery prioritization, but also it offers an appropriate order of transportation roads priority for recovery operations. Finally, the results from the recovery model application to a roadway system in Tehran area are provided.     

A simplified approach for flood vulnerability assessment of historic sites

In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.

     

Waterlogging and flood hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Indo Gangetic plain

The recurrent flooding during monsoon and subsequent waterlogging in the northern Bihar plains and the magnitude of losses due to these hazards indicate the continuing vulnerability of the region to flood and waterlogging. Management of floods and waterlogging hazards in highly flood-prone regions of India, including Bihar state has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of flood and waterlogging vulnerability and risk in northern Bihar plains. Multitemporal satellite data was used to evaluate the area statistics and dynamics of waterlogging over the period from 1975 to 2008. The flood proneness is evaluated at district level with reference to flood inundation during a period from 1998 to 2008. Census data were used to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the region through computation of population density, cultivators, agricultural labourers, sex ratio, children in age group 0–6 years and literates. The geohazard map derived by combining area prone to waterlogging and flood inundation was multiplied with socio-economic vulnerability map to derive the flood-waterlogging risk map of the region. The result shows that flood and water-logging pose highest risk to the central districts in the northern Bihar plains with 50.95% of the total area under high and very high risk.     

An integrated and transferable climate change vulnerability assessment for regional application

While sectoral vulnerability assessments have become common usage in the climate change field, integrated and transferable approaches are still rare. However, comprehensive knowledge is demanded to concretize and prioritize adaptation strategies, which are currently being drafted at national and state levels. We present a multisectoral analysis where sensitivity is quantified by the physical, social, environmental and economic dimension by means of tailor-made approaches for specific sectors. These are directly related to relevant exposure variables defined as relative climatic changes until the end of this century. Aggregation of the sector-specific impacts, comprising both sensitivity and exposure, leads to integrated impact measures. These are then combined with the generic adaptive capacity. We exemplify our methodology for municipalities in the German state North Rhine-Westphalia for two regional climate models. Our approach allows for the integrated assessment, while at the same time enabling a sector-specific perspective. However, various limitations remain, especially regarding the aggregation across sectors. We emphasize the need to consider the aim and methodological advantages and disadvantages before applying any vulnerability assessment.     

Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan

Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.     

基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型及应用

为定量评估分蓄洪工程启用过程中蓄滞洪区的洪水风险等级,创建了基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型。该模型采用二维水动力学模块计算蓄滞洪区的洪水演进过程,利用洪水中人体跌倒失稳公式及洪水中房屋、农作物损失的计算关系式,评估各类受淹对象的洪水风险等级。然后将二维水动力学模块计算的洪水要素与两个物理模型试验值进行对比,表明二维水动力学模块的计算精度良好。最后计算了荆江分洪工程启用时分洪区内洪水的演进过程,并评估洪灾中群众的危险等级和财产损失。计算结果表明:洪水演进至140 h时,蓄滞洪区群众、房屋、水稻和棉花的平均损失率分别为85%、59%、63%和72%。模型中提出的采用基于受淹对象失稳机制的洪水风险分析方法,比以往经验水深法划分风险等级的适用性更好,不仅能为洪水风险管理及蓄滞洪区启用标准制定提供参考,也能推广应用于溃坝或堰塞湖溃决等极端洪水风险评估。     

An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan

Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.     

Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan

Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available.     

Analysis of the global tsunami data for vulnerability and risk assessment

For the assessment of tsunami risk and vulnerability, one has to make use of past tsunami observations. The most comprehensive tsunami databases for the world have been prepared by the National Geophysical Data Center of USA which are listed on their website for all the four oceans as well as the following marginal seas: Caribbean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Red Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The dataset goes back as far as the first century AD and lists the events on a confidence rating scale of 0–4; 0 being an erroneous entry and 4 being a definite tsunami. Based on these various datasets for different geographical areas, a comprehensive global dataset was prepared in this study, which included only tsunami events with confidence rating of 3 and 4, meaning either probable or definite. In this composite and abridged global tsunami database there is no distinction either according to geography or tsunami strength as implied by its impact on the coast. A simple and straightforward statistical analysis suggests an almost complete randomness and no patterns that can be used for future tsunami predictions with a few minor exceptions.     

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价研究进展综述

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价与区划是区域地下水资源保护的重要依据。本文回顾了各国地下水脆弱性评价与编图研究工作以及地下水污染风险评价研究的最新进展,提出地下水污染风险评价的框架及其指标体系,最后指出今后需要深入研究的问题。     

An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method

China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability??population, death, agriculture and economy??at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs.     

Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Natural Hazards - In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the...     

An integrated GIS-based approach for geohazards risk assessment in coal mines

From the viewpoint of safety in underground coal mining, the most suitable mining panel is the one with minimum geological structures, the right machinery, and equipment selection, trained employee, and proficient stope management. Since the ground parameters are uncontrollable and inherent uncertainties exist, a high percent of risk will usually accompany the underground coal mining activities. The main purpose of this study is to present a geological–geotechnical risk assessment model for identification of high risk-prone areas in underground coal mines using an integrated GIS-geostatistics system. Tabas as the first mechanized and largest underground coal mine in Iran was selected as a case study in this study. Gas content of coal seam, Coal Mine Roof Rating (CMRR), initial in situ stress state, fault throw, and orientation were selected as hazard/risk factors. For estimating the amount of coal seam gas content, CMRR and initial in situ stress in unsampled areas and providing the prediction maps, geostatistics module in ArcGIS was used. Rock engineering system–interaction matrix method was used for attribute weight assignment. Next, the attribute layers were weighted, rated, and overlaid to create a final map of geohazards risk. The analysis results of final risk map indicate that about 45% of under study area is prone to high to very high geohazards risk. Comparison of the results with experiences obtained during the early part of the mine and mined-out panels showed generally good agreement with promising ideas. This highlights the potential application of the GIS-based approach for hazards detection and geohazards risk assessment in underground coal mines.     

Aquifer vulnerability and potential risk assessment: application to an intensely cultivated and densely populated area in Southern Italy

The use of indices, describing aquifer vulnerability and the risk of groundwater pollution, is a basic tool for the implementation of a sound water management plan, especially in densely populated and intensely cultivated areas. In this study, the groundwater contamination risk of the Caserta Plain (Southern Italy) was assessed through the integration of hazards defined on the basis of the different land uses, of the intrinsic vulnerability calculated by applying the SINTACS model and of the groundwater value evaluated by considering water wells density. In order to evaluate the evolution of the risk of groundwater pollution, the proposed methods were applied in the study area for both 2001 and 2009. The resulting specific vulnerability (SINTACS-L) and the risk (GRA) maps, created in a GIS environment, were validated by the comparison with the nitrate concentration distribution. The application of the proposed approach to the study area highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of each method and, at the same time, showed that their combination can provide an overall view of the threats posed to groundwater resources by the human activities affecting the territory. Considering both the benefits and the issues of the proposed approach, overall, the groundwater risk map is thought to be a robust tool to support water managers in defining future plans for water resources exploitation and land use.     

An approach for measuring social vulnerability in context: The case of flood hazards in Muzarabani district,Zimbabwe

Understanding the complexity of vulnerability to disasters, including those triggered by floods, droughts and epidemics is at the heart of disaster risk reduction. Despite its importance in disaster risk reduction, there remains a paucity of approaches that contribute to our understanding of social vulnerability that is hidden in dynamic contextual conditions. The study demonstrates an accessible means to assessing the spatial variation of social vulnerability to flood hazards and related for the context of Muzarabani district in northeast Zimbabwe. The study facilitated local identification with residents of variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique to develop a social vulnerability index (SoVI). Using ArcMap10.2 geographic information systems (GIS) tool, the study mapped composite SoVI at the ward level. The results showed that Muzarabani district is socially vulnerable to hazards. The social vulnerability is influenced by a variety of economic, social and institutional factors that vary across the wards. Quantifying and visualising social vulnerability in Muzarabani provides useful information for decision makers to support disaster preparedness and mitigation programmes. The approach shows how spatially distributed multivariate vulnerability, as grounded in interpretations at local level, can be quantitatively derived for contexts such as those of Muzarabani. The study findings can inform disaster risk reduction communities and cognate disciplines on quantitative assessments for managing hazard vulnerability where these have hitherto not been developed.     

Sensitivity of flood loss estimates to building representation and flow depth attribution methods in micro-scale flood modelling

Thanks to modelling advances and the increase in computational resources in recent years, it is now feasible to perform 2-D urban flood simulations at very high spatial resolutions and to conduct flood risk assessments at the scale of single buildings. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of flood loss estimates obtained in such micro-scale analyses to the spatial representation of the buildings in the 2D flood inundation model and to the hazard attribution methods in the flood loss model. The results show that building representation has a limited effect on the exposure values (i.e. the number of elements at risk), but can have a significant impact on the hazard values attributed to the buildings. On the other hand, the two methods for hazard attribution tested in this work result in remarkably different flood loss estimates. The sensitivity of the predicted flood losses to the attribution method is comparable to the one associated with the vulnerability curve. The findings highlight the need for incorporating these sources of uncertainty into micro-scale flood risk prediction methodologies.     

Implementation of an integrated vulnerability and risk assessment model

An integrated vulnerability and risk assessment model (IVR) is proposed. The proposed model is a composite index that assesses the relationships among four critical components, namely exposure, hazard, vulnerability and capacities and measures, and how these can be used to illustrate the integrated risk and vulnerability situation of an area. These factors are assessed using individual variables. Fifty-four variables, objectively decided upon, were used to measure the contribution of each component factor. The general characteristics of vulnerability, risk, exposure and capacities and measures are well known; however, the relative importance of each variable and their inter-relatedness, in measuring risk and vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by the IVR; and how these in turn affect the impacts of natural hazards, are still debatable. The IVR though provides a valid, reliable and sensitive tool, which can be used to further explore these relationships. Through robust testing and application, subjectivity in the selection of variables can be reduced. Moreover, through the establishment of a database for data collection and storage, objectivity (reliability) can be achieved as well as, availability of the requisite data inputs. The sensitivity of the model allows for the quick identification of strategic action, which will ultimately lead to hazard loss reduction. The values yielded for each component factor can help decision-makers in the allocation of scarce developmental funds as well as identify trends in levels of risk, vulnerability, exposures and capacities and measures as well as determine areas where mitigation strategies are needed most.