Disaster prevention,disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon

This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M _w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.     

Anisotropic mechanical properties of zircon and the effect of radiation damage

This study provides new insights into the relationship between radiation-dose-dependent structural damage due to natural U and Th impurities and the anisotropic mechanical properties (Poisson’s ratio, elastic modulus and hardness) of zircon. Natural zircon samples from Sri Lanka (see Muarakami et al. in Am Mineral 76:1510–1532, 1991) and synthetic samples, covering a dose range of zero up to 6.8 × 10¹⁸ α-decays/g, have been studied by nanoindentation. Measurements along the [100] crystallographic direction and calculations, based on elastic stiffness constants determined by Özkan (J Appl Phys 47:4772–4779, 1976), revealed a general radiation-induced decrease in stiffness (~54 %) and hardness (~48 %) and an increase in the Poisson’s ratio (~54 %) with increasing dose. Additional indentations on selected samples along the [001] allowed one to follow the amorphization process to the point that the mechanical properties are isotropic. This work shows that the radiation-dose-dependent changes of the mechanical properties of zircon can be directly correlated with the amorphous fraction as determined by previous investigations with local and global probes (Ríos et al. in J Phys Condens Matter 12:2401–2412, 2000a; Farnan and Salje in J Appl Phys 89:2084–2090, 2001; Zhang and Salje in J Phys Condens Matter 13:3057–3071, 2001). The excellent agreement, revealed by the different methods, indicates a large influence of structural and even local phenomena on the macroscopic mechanical properties. Therefore, this study indicates the importance of acquiring better knowledge about the mechanical long-term stability of radiation-damaged materials.     

The vulnerability of the European air traffic network to spatial hazards

The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a devastating effect on the European air traffic network, preventing air travel throughout most of Europe for 6 days (Oroian in ProEnvironment 3:5–8, 2010). The severity of the disruption was surprising as previous research suggests that this type of network should be tolerant to random hazard (Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000; Strogatz in Nature 410(6825):268–276, 2001). The source of this hazard tolerance lies in the degree distribution of the network which, for many real-world networks, has been shown to follow a power law (Albert et al. in Nature 401(6749):130–131, 1999; Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000). In this paper, we demonstrate that the ash cloud was unexpectedly disruptive because it was spatially coherent rather than uniformly random. We analyse the spatial dependence in air traffic networks and demonstrate how the combination of their geographical distribution and their network architectures jeopardises their inherent hazard tolerance.     

Micro-mechanical failure analysis of wet granular matter

We employ a novel fluid–particle model to study the shearing behavior of granular soils under different saturation levels, ranging from the dry material via the capillary bridge regime to higher saturation levels with percolating clusters. The full complexity of possible liquid morphologies Scheel et al. (Nat Mater 7(3):189–193, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nmat2117) is taken into account, implying the formation of isolated arbitrary-sized liquid clusters with individual Laplace pressures that evolve by liquid exchange via films on the grain surface Melnikov et al. (Phys Rev E 92(022):206, 2015. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.022206). Liquid clusters can grow in size, shrink, merge and split, depending on local conditions, changes of accessible liquid and the pore space morphology determined by the granular phase. This phase is represented by a discrete particle model based on contact dynamics Brendel et al. (Contact dynamics for beginners. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, 2005. doi: 10.1002/352760362X.ch14), where capillary forces exerted from a liquid phase add to the motion of spherical particles. We study the macroscopic response of the system due to an external compression force at various liquid contents with the help of triaxial shear tests. Additionally, the change in liquid cluster distributions during the compression due to the deformation of the pore space is evaluated close to the critical load.     

The formation of porphyry copper deposits

Copper is a moderately incompatible chalcophile element. Its behavior is strongly controlled by sulfides. The speciation of sulfur is controlled by oxygen fugacity. Therefore, porphyry Cu deposits are usually oxidized (with oxygen fugacities > ΔFMQ +2) (Mungall 2002; Sun et al. 2015). The problem is that while most of the magmas at convergent margins are highly oxidized, porphyry Cu deposits are very rare, suggesting that high oxygen fugacity alone is not sufficient. Partial melting of mantle peridotite even at very high oxygen fugacities forms arc magmas with initial Cu contents too low to form porphyry Cu deposits directly (Lee et al. 2012; Wilkinson 2013). Here we show that partial melting of subducted young oceanic slabs at high oxygen fugacity (>ΔFMQ +2) may form magmas with initial Cu contents up to >500 ppm, favorable for porphyry mineralization. Pre-enrichment of Cu through sulfide saturation and accumulation is not necessarily beneficial to porphyry Cu mineralization. In contrast, re-melting of porphyritic hydrothermal sulfide associated with iron oxides may have major contributions to porphyry deposits. Thick overriding continental crust reduces the “leakage” of hydrothermal fluids, thereby promoting porphyry mineralization. Nevertheless, it is also more difficult for ore forming fluids to penetrate the thick continental crust to reach the depths of 2–4 km where porphyry deposits form.     

An enhanced SMA based SCS-CN inspired model for watershed runoff prediction

Incorporation of initial soil moisture (V ₀) in the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology helps to avoid the sudden jumps in Curve Number (CN) and, in turn, in computed runoff. It invoked the development of an enhanced (yet simple) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) procedure-based-SCS-CN inspired model, by incorporating initial moisture (V ₀). Its performance is tested using a dataset of 152 small to large watersheds of USDA (total 38,169 storm events), and compared with original SCS-CN method, Mishra and Singh (Acta Geophys Polon 50(3):457–477, 2002), Michel et al. (Water Resour Res 41(2):W02011, 2005) and Singh et al. (Water Resour Manag 29(11): 4111–4127, 2015) model using four statistical indices (RMSE, R ², PBIAS and NSE) and rank grading system (RGS). The proposed model scores highest (= 691 marks out of maximum 2280 marks) (Rank I) followed by Singh et al. (Water Resour Manag 29(11):4111–4127, 2015) model with 642 marks (Rank II), Michel et al. (Water Resour Res 41(2):W02011, 2005) model with 376 marks (Rank III) and Mishra and Singh model with 362 marks (= Rank IV). The original SCS-CN model, however, performs the poorest of all with 209 marks (Rank V).     

Discussion of “From saturated to unsaturated conditions and vice versa” by Martí Lloret-Cabot,Simon J. Wheeler,Jubert A. Pineda,Enrique Romero,and Daichao Sheng (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-017-0577-6)

The authors (Lloret-Cabot et al. in Acta Geotech 1–23, 2017) applied the glasgow coupled model (GCM), originally proposed by Wheeler et al. (Géotechnique 53(1):41–54, 2003), to the simulation of several experimental tests that involve transition between saturated and unsaturated states. The authors show qualitatively, but not quantitatively, predictions of GCM for shrinkage during air drying of normally consolidated samples (Fig. 13) under low mechanical stress conditions, without presenting the material parameters. The discussers, who have worked with GCM to model multilayer deposition of tailings/soft soils (Qi in Numerical investigation for slope stability of expansive soils and large strain consolidation of soft soils. Doctoral dissertation, University of Ottawa, 2017; Qi et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017018, 2017, Qi et al. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017019, 2017), have made quantitative predictions of similar cases. Satisfactory simulations of such cases using GCM are sensitive to the selection of the coupling parameters k₁ and k₂. By considering an alternative analytical form of GCM, an analytical procedure can be derived for calibrating the coupling parameters for problems involving virgin drying.     

The influence of Fe<Superscript>3+</Superscript> on garnet–orthopyroxene and garnet–olivine geothermometers

Applying Fe²⁺–Mg exchange geothermometers to natural samples may lead to incorrect temperature estimates if significant Fe³⁺ is present. In order to quantify this effect, high-pressure experiments were carried out in a belt apparatus in a natural system close to CFMAS at 5 GPa and 1,100–1,400 °C. The oxygen fugacity in the experiments was at or below the Re–ReO₂ buffer. This is at significantly more oxidized conditions than in previous experiments, and, as consequence, higher Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratios were generated. The Fe³⁺ content of garnet in the experiments was quantified by electron microprobe using the flank method. Making the usual assumption that Fe_total = Fe²⁺, the two-pyroxene thermometer of Brey and Köhler (J Pet 31:1353–1378, 1990) reproduced the experimental temperature to ±35 °C and the garnet–clinopyroxene Fe²⁺–Mg exchange thermometer of Krogh (Contrib Miner Pet 99:44–48, 1988) overestimated the temperatures on average by only 25 °C. On the other hand, application of the garnet–olivine (O’Neill and Wood in Contrib Miner Pet 70:59–70, 1979) and garnet–orthopyroxene (Harley in Contrib Miner Pet 86:359–373, 1984) exchange geothermometers yielded an underestimation in calculated temperatures of >200 °C. However, making explicit accounting for Fe³⁺ in garnet (i.e. using only measured Fe²⁺) leads to a vast improvement in the agreement between calculated and experimental temperatures, generally to within ±70 °C for the garnet–orthopyroxene geothermometer as well as noticeable improvement of calculated temperatures for the garnet–olivine geothermometer. Our results demonstrate that the two-pyroxene and garnet–clinopyroxene thermometers are rather insensitive to the presence of Fe³⁺ whilst direct accounting of Fe³⁺ in garnet is essential when applying the garnet–olivine and garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers.     

Comparison of Squeezing Prediction Methods: A Case Study on Nowsoud Tunnel

According to the International Society of Rock Mechanics, squeezing is a time dependent large deformation occurring during tunnel construction around the tunnel associated with creep caused by exceeding a limiting shear stress (Barla in ISRM News J 2:44–49, 1995). This research is conducted using a case study on the Nowsoud Tunnel, Iran. Being 14 km in length and 4.5 m in diameter, the tunnel is located in the western part of Iran near the Iraq border. Nowsoud tunnel, which was excavated using a double shield TBM, exhibited severe squeezing (with 8919 m) in its critical zone which resulted in excavation termination. In this research, the best approach for predicting squeezing among the recommended methods for reducing the damages caused by squeezing on TBM was determined. In this regard, approaches commonly used to predict squeezing are empirical, semi-empirical, and theoretical–analytical methods. Besides, these methods, numerical modeling is used to estimate convergence generated along the tunnel pathways, which is ultimately used to categorize squeezing. This paper compares squeezing prediction methods in 68 section of Nowsoud Tunnel. These 68 sections indicate that the empirical methods propose a general estimation/overview of squeezing. Among the semi-analytical approaches, the one proposed by Hoek and Marinos (Rock engineering in difficult rock conditions—soft rocks and karst, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 49–60, 2000) are compatible with the occurrence of squeezing in the critical zone. However, the degree of predicted squeezing is less than the real degree of squeezing in this zone. Based on the result of Aydan approach, 75 % of the tunnel sections are under squeezing condition. Theoretical–analytical approaches underestimate the possibility of squeezing in the critical zone. Barla?s approach (1995) demonstrated the possibility of squeezing in the critical zone with low intensity. The numerical computations in this paper were performed using Plaxis (version 8.5), a two-dimensional numerical program based on the finite element method. Plaxis results, classified by Hoek and Marinos (2000) method, show that 8800 m of the tunnel length is under the non-squeezing condition. According to all prediction methods, the squeezing zones depend on faulted zones, argillaceous limestone and shale formations such as J₁Kh, J₄Kh, J₅Kh, and Kgr. These formations were identified with a high quantity of shale and argillaceous limestone. Bedding of these geological formations is thin and their geotechnical properties are weaker than those of limestone formations. On the other hand, non-squeezing zones depend on limestone formations such as J₂Kh, J₃Kh, J₆Kh, K^abg, and Kbg. Moreover, all approaches predicted squeezing potential for the critical zone where TBM is jammed.     

Garnet–orthopyroxene (GOPX) geothermometer: a comparative study

The garnet–orthopyroxene pairs are commonly found in the assemblages of basic granulites/charnockite and hence are suitable for estimating equilibrium temperature of these metamorphic rocks. At present, there are many calibrations of garnet–orthopyroxene thermometer that may confuse geologists in choosing a reliable thermometer. To test the accuracy of the garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers, we have applied 14 models formulated by a number of workers since 1980 to date. We have collated 51 samples from the literature all over the world, which has been processed through the “Gt-Opx.EXE” software. Based on the present study, we have identified a set of the best among all the 14 models which were considered under this comparative study. We have concluded that the five garnet–orthopyroxene (Gt-Opx) thermometers are the most valid and reliable of this kind of thermometer: Aranovich and Berman (Am Mineral 82:345–353, 1997), Raith et al. (Earth Sci 73:211–244, 1983), Harley (Contrib Mineral Petrol 86:359–373, 1984), Nimis and Grütter (Contrib Mineral Petrol 159:411–427, 2010), and Sen and Bhattacharya (Contrib Mineral Petrol 88:64–71, 1984).     

SWAT hydrological model as a DaaS cloud service

Earth Science community depends on the exploration, analysis and reprocessing of high volumes of data as well as the modeling and simulation of complex coupled systems on multiple scales. The main aim of this article is to introduce a new hydrological modeling service based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al. J American Water Resour Assoc 34(1), 73–89, 1998 ; Arnold and Fohrer Hydrol Process 19(3), 563–572, 2005) model using high efficiency, resource sharing and low cost cloud computing resources (Astsatryan et al. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research 1(1), 1130–1133, 2014). Such a Desktop as a Service (DaaS) approach allowing users to work from anywhere, and gives centralized desktop management and great performance. Within the Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and cloud platform, the DaaS service gives secure access to the model and a centralized data storage to get a SWAT model input. The article illustrates the analyses of the implementation of the SWAT model for the Sotk watershed of Lake Sevan in Armenia (Sargsyan 2007).     

Ultimate Bearing Capacity Prediction of Eccentrically Inclined Loaded Strip Footings

Extensive laboratory model tests have been carried out on a strip footing resting over dry sand bed subjected to eccentrically inclined load to determine the ultimate bearing capacity (Patra et al. in Int J Geotech Eng 6(3):343–352, 2012a.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.03.343-352, Int J Geotech Eng 6(4):507–514, b.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.04.507-514). Similarly, lower bound calculations based on finite element method were performed to compute the bearing capacity of a strip footing subjected to an eccentric and inclined load lying over a cohesionless soil with varying embedment depth and relative density (Krabbenhoft et al. in Int J Geomech ASCE, 2014.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0000332). The load may be applied in two ways namely, towards the center line and away from the center line of the footing. Based on the results (both experimental and numerical analyses), a neural network model is developed to predict the reduction factor that will be used in computing the ultimate bearing capacity of an eccentrically inclined loaded strip footing. This reduction factor (RF) is the ratio of the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to an eccentrically inclined load to the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to a centric vertical load. A thorough sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the parameters affecting the reduction factor. Based on the weights of the developed neural network model, a neural interpretation diagram is developed to find out whether the input parameters have direct or inverse effect on the output. A prediction model equation is framed with the trained weights of the neural network as the model parameters. The predictions from ANN, and those from other approaches, are compared with the results computed from both experimentation and FEM analyses. The ANN model results are found to be more accurate and well matched with other results.     

Visualizing flood risk,enabling participation and supporting climate change adaptation using the Geoweb: the case of coastal communities in Nova Scotia,Canada

Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77–86, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geoweb tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called “AdaptNS”) is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.     

Volume estimation and stage division of the Mahu landslide in Sichuan Province,China

The Mahu lake, the third deepest lake in China, is located on the west bank of the Jinsha River in Leibo county, Sichuan Province. It is a dammed lake created by an old landslide on the ancient Huanglang river, a tributary on the west bank of the Jinsha River. Previous studies (Wang and Lu in J Mt Res S1:44–47, 2000) suggested that this landslide was caused by an earthquake approximately 372 ka (Middle Pleistocene), during which a few hundreds of million cubic meters of debris were deposited between 1177 and 900 m a.s.l. (above sea level), covering an area of around 15 km². Our further investigations, including geodetic survey, borehole drilling, and field reconnaissance, combining with five chronological data, have made some new discoveries at this site. First, the toe of the landslide extends from 900 m a.s.l. down to 320 m a.s.l., i.e., the local bed elevation of the contemporary Jinsha River. Second, the area of the landslide deposits is 17.3 km² with a volume of 2.38 km³, much larger than the previous estimation. Thus, it should be one of the largest known landslides in China. And the lower elevation of the landslide’s toe also rules out the possibility that it is a hanging valley on the ancient Huanglang river. Our work suggests that this landslide was created by five events according to the overlapping characteristics of the deposits and five chronological data, which are old than 52,600 years, old than 16,000 years, old than 15,500 years, 5800 years, and old than 4200 years, respectively.     

Analysis of experimental data on divalent cation diffusion kinetics in aluminosilicate garnets with application to timescales of peak Barrovian metamorphism,Scotland

We present a new statistical framework to analyze the diffusion data for divalent cations (Fe, Mg, Mn, and Ca) in aluminosilicate garnet using published experimental data and an Arrhenius relationship that accounts for dependence on temperature, pressure, garnet unit-cell dimension, and oxygen fugacity. The regression is based on Bayesian statistics and is implemented by the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. All reported experimental uncertainties are incorporated, and the data are weighted by the precision of the experimental conditions. We also include a new term, the inter-experiment bias, to compensate for possible inconsistencies among experiments and to represent any experimental variability not explicitly presented in the Arrhenius relationship (e.g., water content, defect density). At high temperatures where most experiments were conducted, the diffusion coefficients calculated with the new parameters agree well with previous diffusion models (e.g., Chakraborty and Ganguly in Contrib Mineral Petrol, 111:74–86, 1992; Carlson in Am Mineral, 91:1–11, 2006). However, the down-temperature extrapolation leads to notable differences at lower temperatures for common petrological applications. For example, at 600 °C, the diffusion coefficients of Fe and Mn are one half-to-one order of magnitude faster and the diffusion coefficient of Ca is about one order of magnitude slower than calculated with parameters in Carlson (2006). Our statistical analysis also provides well-defined uncertainty bounds for timescale estimates based on garnet diffusion profiles. Application of the newly derived coefficients indicates that the timescale of the thermal peak of Barrovian metamorphism (Dalradian belt of Scotland) is about four to seven times longer than that estimated using previously published diffusion coefficients. The peak is still geologically brief, however—of the order of 10⁶ years (0.75 Myr +0.70/?0.36 Myr; ±1σ). This brevity requires pulsed advective heat input, as provided by syn-orogenic mafic magmatism in these rocks.     

Water contents of Roberts Victor xenolithic eclogites: primary and metasomatic controls

A suite of eclogites from the Roberts Victor kimberlite has been extensively characterized in terms of petrology and geochemical compositions (Gréau et al. in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 75(22):6927–6954, 2011; Huang et al. in Lithos 142–143:161–181, 2012a). In the present study, the water contents of eclogitic garnet and omphacite were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry. Garnet does not contain measureable OH in any sample. The water content of omphacite in the studied eclogites ranges from 211 to 1,496 ppm. Mantle metasomatism has modified the water content of some of the eclogites, while others retain water contents characteristic of their original environment. The OH contents of the metasomatized eclogites may be mainly controlled by the H₂O fugacity and mineral compositions. The OH contents of the non-metasomatized samples are interpreted to be more sensitive to their mantle equilibration temperature, pressure, and the local fugacities of H₂O and O₂. The calculated water content of the metasomatic medium is similar to that of carbonatitic–kimberlitic melts/fluids. Eclogites contain more water than peridotites recorded in the literature (341 ± 161 vs 122 ± 54 ppm) and represent an important water reservoir in the lithospheric mantle wherever they occur. This is an important parameter to be considered in the interpretation of mantle processes and geophysical data such as seismic wave speeds and electrical conductivity, and in geodynamic modeling.     

Poisson distribution of the Iranian declustered earthquake catalog

Two main goals are considered in this paper: (1) modification and computation of the local coefficients of the space-time windows in the well-known declustering algorithm introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and (2) checking the independence of the Iranian mainshocks obtained from applying the new modified model. First, 21 of the well-documented earthquake sequences of Iran in the time period of 1972 to 2008 with the mainshock magnitude ranged from M _w = 5.4–7.1 were used to define the new local space-time windows of declustering. Generally, using these Iranian earthquake sequences led to introduce bigger space-time windows for the new model in comparison to the Gardner and Knopoff’s (1974) windows. In the next step, to control the independence of Iranian mainshocks, the events of the Iranian earthquake catalog in the time span of 1964–2010 with moment magnitude of M _w = 3.5–7.4 were used. In this respect, dependent events corresponding to the seven seismotectonic zones of Iran were removed using the new modified space-time windows. After declustering, the mainshock catalog was examined by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, and it was found to follow a Poisson distribution in all the studied seismotectonic zones of Iran. The same test on times between successive declustered events shows that the inter-event times of all catalogs follow an exponential distribution.     

Multiscale model reduction for shale gas transport in fractured media

In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work (Akkutlu et al. Transp. Porous Media 107(1), 235–260, 2015), where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (Efendiev et al. J. Comput. Phys. 251, 116–135, 2013, 2015). In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. In Efendiev et al. (2015), we developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations aligned with a Cartesian fine grid. The approach in Efendiev et al. (2015) does not allow handling arbitrary fracture distributions. In this paper, we (1) consider arbitrary fracture distributions on an unstructured grid; (2) develop GMsFEM for nonlinear flows; and (3) develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region represents the degrees of freedom needed to achieve a certain error threshold. Our approach is adaptive in a sense that the multiscale basis functions can be added in the regions of interest. Numerical results for two-dimensional problem are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed approach.     

Seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels

In 2012, the damage costs of floods in Russia amounted to about €300m, and these floods have caused nearly 200 fatalities (Kotlyakov et al. in Reg Res Rus 3(1):32–39, 2013). Risk assessment is one of the most pressing scientific topics in Russia, but most of the works are devoted to natural hazards assessment. The purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on society. The field research was conducted in the Slavyansk municipal district in the Krasnodar region (the south-western part of Russia), which is a highly populated coastal territory with a high frequency of hazardous hydrological events. Modified methods of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) were used for potential economic damage calculation. The paper did not only focus on direct, tangible risks, but also included social risk (i.e. risk to life and health). Social vulnerability has been calculated directly as a percentage of vulnerable people, estimated in opinion polls, while in many recent papers the social vulnerability index was calculated as a combination of several statistical indicators. The resulting percentage of vulnerable people was converted to numbers of potential victims. Finally, the social risk was expressed by financial indicators in terms of the cost of the value of statistical life lost (Mrozek and Taylor in J Policy Anal Manag 21(2):253–270, 2002; Viscusi and Aldy in J Risk Uncertain 27(1):5–76, 2003). Social risk can be underestimated in comparison with economic risk because of a low “value of life” in Russia (no life insurance, neglecting of basic safety rules, etc.) (Guriev in Myths of economics, Alpina Business Books, Moscow, 2009).     

A probabilistic model for rainfall—induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale

This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density.