Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates

With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard (mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study, an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about 25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate, which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust.     

Sensitivity of incipient particle motion to fluid flow penetration depth within a packed bed

A discrete element method is applied to a three‐dimensional analysis related to sediment entrainment on a micro‐scale. Sediment entrainment is the process by which a fluid medium accelerates particles from rest and advects them upward until they are either transported as bedload or suspended by the flow. Modelling of the entrainment process is a critically important aspect for studies of erosion, pollutant resuspension and transport, and formation of bedforms in environmental flows. Previous discrete element method studies of sediment entrainment have assumed the flow within the particle bed to be negligible and have only allowed for the motion of the topmost particles. At the same time, micro‐scale experimental studies indicate that there is a small slip of the fluid flow at the top of the bed, indicating the presence of non‐vanishing fluid velocity within the topmost bed layers. The current study demonstrates that the onset of particle incipient motion, which immediately precedes particle entrainment, is highly sensitive to this small fluid flow within the topmost bed layers. Using an exponential decay profile for the inner‐bed fluid flow, the discrete element method calculations are repeated with different fluid penetration depths within the bed for several small particle Reynolds numbers. For cases with slip velocity corresponding to that observed in previous experiments with natural sediment, the predicted particle velocity is found to be a few percent of the fluid velocity at the top of the viscous wall layer, which is a reasonable range of velocities for observation of incipient particle motion. This method for prescribing the fluid flow within the particle bed allows for the current discrete element method to be extended in future studies to the analysis of sediment entrainment under the influence of events such as turbulent bursting. Additionally, predictions for the slip velocities and fluid flow profile within the bed suggest the need for further experimental studies to provide the data necessary for additional improvement of the discrete element method models.     

缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法及应用

很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段。为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法。提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数。以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行,特征组合指标呈现动态变化性,多种函数组合拟合效果最优。     

An innovative micro-scale approach for vulnerability and flood risk assessment with the application to property-level protection adoptions

Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options.     

Participatory modelling of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in flood risk management

Being part of the EU-project NeWater on adaptive water resources management, the Ukrainian Tisa river basin is presented as an example for a participatory study dealing with flood risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The Tisa valley is regularly and increasingly faced with hazardous floods at very limited local budgets and high poverty rates. In order to make flood risk management more resilient and better adapted to climate change, scientists and stakeholders applied a set of qualitative and quantitative modelling approaches to characterise prevailing flood risk management, to discover respective vulnerabilities and to identify barriers and options of adaptive capacity. The former were found in the defensive mentality paradigm and the inert and hierarchical structure of present institutions, the latter in, firstly, an enormous potential to link the knowledge of different stakeholders in the region, secondly, a better integration of the individual flood preparedness of households and thirdly, the active involvement of the Church as institution in local flood risk management.     

A method to reconstruct flood scenarios using field interviews and hydrodynamic modelling: application to the 2017 Suleja and Tafa,Nigeria flood

Natural Hazards - The scarcity of model input and calibration data has limited efforts in reconstructing scenarios of past floods in many regions globally. Recently, the number of studies that use...     

Recognition of debris flow,debris flood and flood hazard through watershed morphometrics

Debris flows, debris floods and floods in mountainous areas are responsible for loss of life and damage to infrastructure, making it important to recognize these hazards in the early stage of planning land developments. Detailed terrain information is seldom available and basic watershed morphometrics must be used for hazard identification. An existing model uses watershed area and relief (the Melton ratio) to differentiate watersheds prone to flooding from those subject to debris flows and debris floods. However, the hazards related to debris flows and debris floods are not the same, requiring further differentiation. Here, we demonstrate that a model using watershed length combined with the Melton ratio can be used to differentiate debris-flow and debris-flood prone watersheds. This model was tested on 65 alluvial and colluvial fans in west central British Columbia, Canada, that were examined in the field. The model correctly identified 92% of the debris-flow, 83% of the debris-flood, and 88% of the flood watersheds. With adaptation for different regional conditions, the use of basic watershed morphometrics could assist land managers, scientists, and engineers with the identification of hydrogeomorphic hazards on fans elsewhere.     

Dynamics and contribution of karst groundwater to surface flow during Mediterranean flood

This paper describes the role of groundwater contribution to surface flow at the Causse d’Aumelas, a karst system near Montpellier (France), which is traversed by an intermittent river, the Coulazou. A first hydrologic model integrating a digital terrain model shows the inability of a standard rainfall-runoff model to replicate recorded flood hydrographs. While the flood peaks are routed through the karstic system along the Coulazou without a phase lag, the peak magnitude is somewhat modified. These results indicate an initial karst system recharge followed by a significant contribution to surface flow. A hydrodynamic analysis of ground-water flow confirms these results: the karst system first absorbs part of the rainfall, which induces a general water table rise within the aquifer, and then contributes to surface flow in the Coulazou.     

Hydrodynamic modelling and vulnerability analysis to assess flood risk in a dense Indian city using geospatial techniques

Natural Hazards - Urban flooding and waterlogging are causing menace in many cities around the world from the perspective of day-to-day functioning, health and hygiene, communication, and the...     

A comparison of TRMM to other basin-scale estimates of rainfall during the 1999 Hurricane Floyd flood

The volumetric rainfall attributed to Hurricane Floyd in 1999 was computed for the bulk of the Tar, Neuse, and Cape Fear River Basins in eastern North Carolina, USA from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research product, and compared with volumes computed using kriged gauge data and one centrally located radar. TMPA showed similar features in the band of heaviest rainfall with kriged and radar data, but was higher in the basin-scale integrations. Furthermore, Floyd’s direct runoff volumes were computed and divided by the volumetric rainfall estimates to give runoff coefficients for the three basins. The TMPA, having the larger storm totals, would suggest greater infiltration during Floyd than the gauge and radar estimates would. Finally, we discuss a concept for adjusting the United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service rainfall-runoff model when predicting discharge values from real-time TMPA in ungauged river basins.

Test of a distributed modelling approach to predict flood flows in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in Vietnam

The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study, a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment.     

Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario,Canada

Amidst changing climates, understanding the world’s water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.     

Geostatistical modelling of spatial and depth variability of SPT data for Bangalore

The purpose of this study is to develop a geostatistical model to evaluate the spatial and depth variability of Standard Penetration Test (SPT) data from Bangalore, India. The database consists of 766 boreholes spread over a 220 km² area, with several SPT values (N) in each of them. The geostatistical analysis is done for N corrected (N _corrected) values. The N _corrected value has been corrected for different parameters such as overburden stress, size of the bore hole, type of sampler, hammer energy and length of the connecting rod. The knowledge of the semivariogram of the SPT data is used with kriging theory to estimate the values at points in the subsurface of Bangalore where field measurements are not available. The model is used to compute the variance of estimated data. The model predicts reasonably well the SPT data. The geostatistical model provides valuable results that can be used for seismic hazard analysis, site response and liquefaction studies for the development of microzonation maps. The predicted N values from the developed model can also be used to estimate the subsurface information, allowable bearing pressure of soils and elastic modulus of soils.     

A review of flood damage analysis for a building structure and contents

Natural Hazards - As a natural hazard, flood can cause a significant damage to buildings. Buildings are one of the important components of an economy which are providing the necessary space for...     

基于扫描电镜图像和微观渗流模型的云冈石窟砂岩风化特征分析

风化作用、岩石微观结构、岩石微观渗流特性定量关系的研究是石窟文物有效保护的重要基础,砂岩风化作用严重影响了岩体上石窟文物的有效保护。本次研究使用扫描电镜（SEM）获得云冈石窟不同窟体砂岩的微观图像,根据图像增强和图像分割技术得到了岩石中颗粒和孔隙的数字特征参数,从微观角度建立了反映孔喉连接特性的渗流模型,得到了不同窟体岩石的局部水力传导系数,分析了数字特征参数、水力传导系数、风化作用之间的关系。结果表明,风化作用对石窟砂岩微观结构具有很大影响;砂岩孔隙平均长轴长度大小对应的风化程度分别是全风化或强风化、中等风化、微风化或未风化,长度分别为大于40 μm、25～35 μm、15～25 μm;风化程度越高、水力传导系数越大,随着风化程度的增高、水力传导系数的范围为1 × 10?9～1 × 10?4 cm/s;水力传导系数与孔喉尺寸、孔喉连通性密切相关;孔喉半径比增大时、水力传导系数也增大。     

复式河槽正常水深计算方法比较

明渠恒定均匀流正常水深在水力计算中十分重要。而对于复式河槽,当洪水漫滩后,直接运用曼宁方程推求正常水深,将带来很大误差。系统地总结了计算正常水深的各种方法,用二分法求解,并运用英国科学工程研究协会洪水水槽设施(SERC-FCF)的大量系列水槽实验成果加以比较。比较发现,精度由高到低依次为COHM方法、刘沛清法、断面倾斜分割法、动量传递法、谢汉祥法、断面叠加法。通过对各种方法详细分析,建议在计算天然复式河槽正常水深时,COHM方法是值得推广的一种好方法。     

Cooling in rifting sequences during increasing burial depth due to heat flow decrease

Two case histories are presented to give evidences for sediment cooling during increasing burial depth due to heat flow decrease at the end of crustal stretching in extensional settings. The first refers to the Lower Cretaceous succession accumulated in a strongly subsiding trough within the Sirt Basin (Libya); the second relates to the Mesozoic succession of the Lombardian Basin (NW Italy) formed during Late Triassic–Early Jurassic rifting of the northern margin of the Adriatic microplate. In both cases, heat flow decreasing at the end of crustal stretching overbalanced the thermal effect of increasing burial depth causing a net cooling of rocks. These examples provide an alternative to exhumation for explaining cooling events recorded by rifting sedimentary sequences.     

基于遥感空间信息的洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究进展

对地观测卫星遥感能够提供广泛可靠的空间信息,是洪水风险识别与动态模拟的重要支撑技术之一。为阐明卫星遥感技术对洪水研究的推动作用,回顾了洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究的发展历程及技术需求,以对地观测卫星遥感三大阶段的发展轨迹为主线,分析了遥感空间信息在洪水研究中的历史性贡献和阶段性效用,讨论总结了危险分区法、水文模型和微波遥感监测等3种洪水研究典型方法的应用进展。提出未来洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究的重点:遥感空间信息与模型算法的深度结合,遥感反演算法与系统的开发及应用,典型洪水研究方法集成系统的开发与应用,大数据方法与手段的应用。以期为提升洪水应急响应能力与灾害风险管理水平提供有效参考。     

Integration of RADARSAT and GIS modelling for estimating future Red River flood risk

A new geomatics-based approach for flood prediction was developed and used to model the magnitude and spatial extent of a future Red River flood in southern Manitoba. This approach combines the statistical modelling capabilities of Markov (non-spatial) analysis and logistic regression (spatial) within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, utilizing modelling inputs derived from remotely sensed RADARSAT imagery and other digital geographic data. The 1997 Red River flood was the second largest in recorded history, and the largest for which accurate data are available. The results indicate: (i) a flood “one time interval-in terms of 3 days time unit measurement- larger in area” than the 1997 flood is expected to affect 17.6% more land (an additional 47.6 km²) within the study area compared to 1997 levels based on Markovian probability derived from observations from the 1997 event; and (ii) the majority of this excess flooding will take place on agricultural land; no additional communities are expected to be at risk. Quantitative assessment verified the capability of this modelling approach for producing statistically significant results. The methodology used in this research would be easily transferable to other areas, and may provide the basis for a viable alternative to conventional hydrologic-based flood prediction approaches This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.