Tropical Cyclone Size Change under Ocean Warming and Associated Responses of Tropical Cyclone Destructiveness: Idealized Experiments

The power dissipation index (PDI), which is defined as the sum of the cube of tropical cyclone (TC) maximum wind speed during TC lifetime, is widely used to estimate the TC destructive potential. However, due to the lack of high-resolution observations, little attention has been paid to the contribution of TC size change to TC destructive potential in response to ocean warming. In this study, sensitivity experiments are performed by using the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the responses of TC size and TC destructive potential to prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) increase under the present climate condition. The results show that TC size increases with the ocean warming. Possible reasons for TC size change are investigated with a focus on the outer air-sea moisture difference (ASMD). As SST increases, ASMD in the outer zone of the TC is larger than that in the inner zone, which increases the surface entropy flux (SEF) of the outer zone. This change in the radial distribution of SEF causes the increase of tangential wind in the outer zone, which further increases SEF, resulting in a positive feedback between outer-zone SEF and outer-zone tangential wind. This feedback leads to the increase of the radius of gale-force wind, leading to the expansion of TC size. Moreover, to estimate the contribution of TC size change to TC destructiveness, we calculate TC size-dependent destructive potential (PDS) as the storm size information is available in the model outputs, as well as PDI that does not consider the effect of TC size change. We find that PDS increases exponentially as SST increases from 1 to 4°C, while PDI increases linearly; hence the former is soon much greater than the latter. This suggests that the growth effect of TC size cannot be ignored in estimating destructiveness under ocean warming.     

西北太平洋海温增暖对热带气旋潜在破坏力的影响:高分辨模式个例分析

以三个西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）为例,利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式进行了一系列海表温度（SST）敏感性数值试验,揭示了西北太平洋SST增暖对TC的强度、尺度及潜在破坏力的影响及其机理。结果表明,在距TC中心100 km以内区域的SST升高有利于TC强度增加,但会减小TC内核尺度;而在距TC中心100 km以外的SST升高并不会使TC强度明显增加甚至使TC强度减弱,但同时会增加TC内核尺度。伴随着低层向眼墙的入流,升高的外区SST会使TC区表层的大气温度和湿度升高,造成眼墙附近海气温差和湿度差及向内的气压梯度力减小,进而减少进入TC眼墙内的感热和潜热,不利于TC增强,但有利于眼墙向外移动,使TC内核尺度增加。内区SST升高与外区SST升高对TC强度及尺度变化的作用机理相反。因此,当TC移过冷或暖洋面时,TC的强度和尺度的变化不仅取决于局地洋面的冷或暖状况,还取决于TC内区和外区SST的差异。由于TC内区和外区SST对TC强度和内核尺度的不同作用,可能存在一个临界范围,当暖池范围在这个临界范围之内时TC潜在破坏力随暖池范围的扩大而增大,但当暖池范围超过这个临界范围时TC潜在破坏力便不会随着暖池范围的继续扩大而增大,甚至会有所减小。      

Sensitivity Experiments on the Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific under Warming Ocean Conditions

Recent studies found that in the context of global warming, the observed tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit significant poleward migration trend in terms of the mean latitude where TCs reach their lifetime-maximum intensity in the western North Pacific (WNP). This poleward migration of TC tracks can be attributed to not only anthropogenic forcing (e.g., continuous increase of sea surface temperature (SST)), but also impacts of other factors (e.g., natural variability). In the present study, to eliminate the impacts of other factors and thus focus on the impact of unvaried SST on climatological WNP TC tracks, the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to conduct a suite of idealized sensitivity experiments with increased SST. Comparisons among the results of these experiments show the possible changes in climatological TC track, TC track density, and types of TC track in the context of SST increase. The results demonstrate that under the warmer SST conditions, the climatological mean TC track systematically shifts poleward significantly in the WNP, which is consistent with the previous studies. Meanwhile, the ocean warming also leads to the decreased (increased) destructive potential of TCs in low (middle) latitudes, and thus northward migration of the region where TCs have the largest impact. Further results imply the possibility that under the ocean warming, the percentage of TCs with westward/northwestward tracks decreases/increases distinctly.     

Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming

One of the robust features in the future projections made by the state-of-the-art climate models is that the highest warming rate occurs in the upper-troposphere especially in the tropics. It has been suggested that more warming in the upper-troposphere than the lower-troposphere should exert a dampening effect on the sea surface warming associated with the negative lapse rate feedback. This study, however, demonstrates that the tropical upper-tropospheric warming (UTW) tends to trap more moisture in the lower troposphere and weaken the surface wind speed, both contributing to reduce the upward surface latent heat flux so as to trigger the initial sea surface warming. We refer to this as a ‘top-down’ warming mechanism. The rise of tropospheric moisture together with the positive water vapor feedback enhance the downward longwave radiation to the surface and facilitate strengthening the initial sea surface warming. Meanwhile, the rise of sea surface temperature (SST) can feed back to intensify the initial UTW through the moist adiabatic adjustment, completing a positive UTW–SST warming feedback. The proposed ‘top-down’ warming mechanism and the associated positive UTW–SST warming feedback together affect the surface global warming rate and also have important implications for understanding the past and future changes of precipitation, clouds and atmospheric circulations.     

The Dynamic and Thermodynamic Effects of Relative and Absolute Sea Surface Temperature on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Several numerical experiments were performed to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of sea surface temperature(SST) on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity.The results reveal that the relative SST within a radius of 2-3 times the radius of maximum wind contributes positively and greatly to TC intensity,while the remote SST far away from the TC center could reduce storm intensity.The change of air-sea temperature and moisture differences may be the reason why TC intensity is more sensitive to the relative rather than the absolute SST.As the inflow air moves toward the eyewall,warmer(colder) remote SST can gradually increase(decrease) the underlying surface air temperature and moisture,and thus decrease(increase) the air-sea temperature and moisture differences,which lead to less(more) energy fluxes entering the eyewall and then decrease(increase) the TC intensity and make it less sensitive to the absolute SST change.Finally,with all the related dynamic and thermodynamic processes being taken into account,a schematic diagram for the effects of relative SST and absolute SST on TC intensity is proposed.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数及生成位置的气候变化研究进展

自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化：一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。     

A COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF TWO CENTENNIAL-SCALE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATASETS IN THE CHINA SEAS AND THEIR ADJACENT SEA AREAS

Two reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST) datasets(HadISST1 and COBE SST2) with centennial-scale are compared on the SST climate change over the China Seas and their adjacent sea areas. Two independent datasets show consistency in statistically significant trends, with a warming trend of 0.07—0.08 ℃ per decade from 1890 to2013. However, in shorter epochs(such as 1961—2013 and 1981—2013), HadISST1 exhibits stronger warming rates than those of COBE SST2. Both datasets experienced a sudden decrease in the global hiatus period(1998—2013), but the cooling rate of HadISST1 is lower than that of COBE SST2. These differences are possibly caused by the different observations sources which are incorporated to fill with data-sparse regions since 1982. Different data sources may lead to higher values in HadISST1 from 1981 to 2013 than that in COBE SST2. Meanwhile, the different data sources and bias adjustment before the World War II may also cause the large divergence between COBE SST2 and HadISST1,leading to lower SST from 1891 to 1930. These findings illustrate that the long-term linear trends are broadly similar in the centennial-scale in the China Seas using different datasets. However, there are large uncertainties in the estimate of warming or cooling tendency in the shorter epochs, because there are different data sources, different bias adjustment and interpolation method in different datasets.     

A mechanism for long-term changes of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity

Although previous studies reported upward trends in the basin-wide average lifetime, annual frequency, proportion of intense hurricanes and annual accumulated power dissipation index of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) over the past 30?years, the basin-wide intensity did not increase significantly with the rising sea surface temperature (SST). Observational analysis and numerical simulation conducted in this study suggest that Sahel rainfall is the key to understanding of the long-term change of Atlantic TC intensity. The long-term changes of the basin-wide TC intensity are generally associated with variations in Sahara air layer (SAL) activity and vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR), both of which are highly correlated with Sahel rainfall. The drying Sahel corresponds to an equatorward shift in the African easterly jet and African easterly wave activity, introducing the SAL to lower latitudes and increasing the MDR vertical wind shear. As a result, Atlantic TCs are more vulnerable to the suppressing effects of the SAL and vertical wind shear. Since the SST warming, especially in the tropical Indian Ocean, is a dominant factor for the Sahel drying that occurred over the past 30?years, it is suggested that the remote effect of SST warming is important for the long-term change of Atlantic TC intensity. Although influence of the AMO warm phase that started in the early 1990s alone can provide a favorable condition for TC intensification, its influence may have been offset by the influence of the ongoing SST warming, particularly in the Indian Ocean. As a result, there was no significant trend observed in the basin-wide average and peak intensity of Atlantic TCs.     

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming

In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO₂-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO₂-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO₂ concentration pathways including extreme cases.     

Coupling ocean–atmosphere intensity determines ocean chlorophyll-induced SST change in the tropical Pacific

Phytoplankton pigments (e.g., chlorophyll-a) absorb solar radiation in the upper ocean and induce a pronounced radiant heating effect (chlorophyll effect) on the climate. However, the ocean chlorophyll-induced heating effect on the mean climate state in the tropical Pacific has not been understood well. Here, a hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the atmosphere, ocean physics and biogeochemistry is used to investigate the chlorophyll effect on sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific; a tunable coefficient, α, is introduced to represent the coupling intensity between the atmosphere and ocean in the HCM. The modeling results show that the chlorophyll effect on the mean-state SST is sensitively dependent on α (the coupling intensity). At weakly represented coupling intensity (0 ≤ α < 1.01), the chlorophyll effect tends to induce an SST cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas an SST warming emerges at the strongly represented coupling intensity (α ≥ 1.01). Thus, a threshold exists for the coupling intensity (about α = 1.01) at which the sign of SST responses can change. Mechanisms and processes are illustrated to understand the different SST responses. In the weak coupling cases, indirect dynamical cooling processes (the adjustment of ocean circulation, enhanced vertical mixing, and upwelling) tend to dominate the SST cooling. In the strong coupling cases, the persistent warming induced by chlorophyll in the southern subtropical Pacific tends to induce cross-equatorial northerly winds, which shifts to anomalous westerly winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consequently reducing the evaporative cooling and weakening indirect dynamical cooling; eventually, SST warming maintains in the eastern equatorial Pacific. These results provide new insights into the biogeochemical feedback on the climate and bio-physical interactions in the tropical Pacific.

     

Dependency of typhoon intensity and genesis locations on El Ni?o phase and SST shift over the western North Pacific

The effects of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and the shifting of the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) on the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) have been extensively investigated in terms of TC genesis locations in the western North Pacific (WNP). To advance the hypothesis for a relation of genesis location–intensity that the TC formation location hints its intensity, two cases have been compared, which include the phase of the decaying El Ni?o turning over to La Ni?a (type I) and the phase that recovers to a neutral condition (type II). In addition, the shift of ENSO SST to the central Pacific warming (CPW) from the East Pacific warming (EPW) has been examined. The genesis potential index (GPI) and the accumulated cyclone energy have been applied to compare the differences between the ENSO phase and the TC formation location. It was apparent that ENSO influences the WNP typhoon formation location depending on the cycle of the ENSO phase. In addition, the typhoon activity was affected by the zonal shift of the El Ni?o SST. The CPW, which has maximum SST over the central Pacific, tends to have a persistently high GPI over the WNP in September–November and June–August, demonstrating that the formation locations of strong TCs significantly shift southeastward compared with the EPW having SST maximum over the eastern Pacific. CPW years revealed a distinguishable relationship between the TC formation location and the TC between the tropical depression (TD) + tropical storm (TS) and the intense typhoon of category 4?+?5.     

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden “switch-on” of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts.     

Numerical Simulation of Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using a Coupled Air-Sea Model

A coupled air-sea model for tropical cyclones （TCs） is constructed by coupling the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （MM5） with the Princeton Ocean Model.Four numerical simulations of tropical cyclone development have been conducted using different configurations of the coupled model on the f-plane.When coupled processes are excluded,a weak initial vortex spins up into a mature symmetric TC that strongly resembles those observed and simulated in prior research.The coupled model reproduces the reduction in sea temperature induced by the TC reasonably well,as well as changes in the minimum central pressure of the TC that result from negative atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.Asymmetric structures are successfully simulated under conditions of uniform environmental flow.The coupled ocean-atmosphere model is suitable for simulating air-sea interactions under TC conditions.The effects of the ocean on the track of the TC and changes in its intensity under uniform environmental flow are also investigated.TC intensity responds nonlinearly to sea surface temperature （SST）.The TC intensification rate becomes smaller once the SST exceeds a certain threshold.Oceanic stratification also influences TC intensity,with stronger stratification responsible for a larger decrease in intensity.The value of oceanic enthalpy is small when the ocean is weakly stratified and large when the ocean is strongly stratified,demonstrating that the oceanic influence on TC intensity results not only from SST distributions but also from stratification.Air-sea interaction has only a slight influence on TC movement in this model.     

海洋环流对全球增暖趋势的调制：基于FGOALS-s2的数值模拟研究

在工业革命以来全球长期增暖趋势背景下,全球平均表面气温还同时表现出年代际变化特征,二者叠加在一起使得全球平均气温在某些年份增暖相对停滞(如1999～2008年)或者增暖相对较快(如1980～1998年).利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS-s2历史气候和典型路径浓度(RCPs)模拟试验结果研究了可能造成全球增暖的年代际停滞及加速现象的原因,特别是海洋环流对全球变暖趋势的调制作用.该模式模拟的全球平均气温与观测类似,即在长期增暖趋势之上,还叠加了显著的年代际变化.对全球平均能量收支分析表明,模拟的气温年代际变化与大气顶净辐射通量无关,意味着年代际表面气温变化可能与能量在气候系统内部的重新分配有关.通过对全球增暖加速和停滞时期大气和海洋环流变化的合成分析及回归分析,发现全球表面气温与大部分海区海表温度(SST)均表现出几乎一致的变化特征.在增暖停滞时期,SST降低,更多热量进入海洋次表层和深层,使其温度增加;而在增暖加速时期,更多热量停留在表层,使得大部分海区SST显著增加,次表层海水和深海相对冷却.进一步分析表明,热带太平洋表层和次表层海温年代际变化主要是由于副热带—热带经圈环流(STC)的年代际变化所致,然后热带太平洋海温异常可以通过风应力和热通量强迫作用引起印度洋、大西洋海温的年代际变化.在此过程中,海洋环流变化起到了重要作用,例如印度尼西亚贯穿流(ITF)年代际异常对南印度洋次表层海温变化起到关键作用,而大西洋经圈翻转环流(AMOC)则能直接影响到北大西洋深层海温变化.     

A Numerical Simulation of the Impact of Tropical Western Pacific SST Anomalies on the Decadal Shift of the Meiyu Belt

The sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical western Pacific Ocean (TWPO) showed a pronounced warming in the late 1990s. Using numerical experiments of a regional climate model (RegCM), we analyzed the impact of this warming on rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley of China during the Meiyu period (June-July). The model results revealed that the observed decadal changes in Meiyu rainfall since the late 1990s can be reproduced by a control experiment forced by the observed SST. Additionally, the sensitivity experiments suggested that the warming trend in the TWPO played a substantial role in the northward shift of the Meiyu belt in the late 1990s.     

Which Features of the SST Forcing Error Most Likely Disturb the Simulated Intensity of Tropical Cyclones?

Among all of the sources of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecast errors, the uncertainty of sea surface temperature(SST) has been shown to play a significant role. In the present study, we determine the SST forcing error that causes the largest simulation error of TC intensity during the entire simulation period by using the WRF model with time-dependent SST forcing. The SST forcing error is represented through the application of a nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)structure. For the selected 12 TC cases, the NFSV-type SST forcing errors have a nearly coherent structure with positive(or negative) SST anomalies located along the track of TCs but are especially concentrated in a particular region. This particular region tends to occur during the specific period of the TCs life cycle when the TCs present relatively strong intensity, but are still intensifying just prior to the mature phase, especially within a TC state exhibiting a strong secondary circulation and very high inertial stability. The SST forcing errors located along the TC track during this time period are verified to have the strongest disturbing effect on TC intensity simulation. Physically, the strong inertial stability of TCs during this time period induces a strong response of the secondary circulation from diabatic heating errors induced by the SST forcing error. Consequently, this significantly influences the subsidence within the warm core in the eye region, which,in turn, leads to significant errors in TC intensity. This physical mechanism explains the formation of NSFV-type SST forcing errors. According to the sensitivity of the NFSV-type SST forcing errors, if one increases the density of SST observations along the TC track and assimilates them to the SST forcing field, the skill of TC intensity simulation generated by the WRF model could be greatly improved. However, this adjustment is most advantageous in improving simulation skill during the time period when TCs become strong but are still intensifying just prior to reaching full maturity. In light of this, the region along the TC track but in the time period of TC movement when the NFSV-type SST forcing errors occur may represent the sensitive area for targeting observation for SST forcing field associated with TC intensity simulation.     

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.     

Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity

We examine the role of local and remote sea surface temperature (SST) on the tropical cyclone potential intensity in the North Atlantic using a suite of model simulations, while separating the impact of anthropogenic (external) forcing and the internal influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. To enable the separation by SST region of influence we use an ensemble of global atmospheric climate model simulations forced with historical, 1856–2006 full global SSTs, and compare the results to two other simulations with historical SSTs confined to the tropical Atlantic and to the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific. The effects of anthropogenic plus other external forcing and that of internal variability are separated by using a linear, “signal-to-noise” maximizing EOF analysis and by projecting the three model ensemble outputs onto the respective external forcing and internal variability time series. Consistent with previous results indicating a tampering influence of global tropical warming on the Atlantic hurricane potential intensity, our results show that non-local SST tends to reduce potential intensity associated with locally forced warming through changing the upper level atmospheric temperatures. Our results further indicate that the late twentieth Century increase in North Atlantic potential intensity, may not have been dominated by anthropogenic influence but rather by internal variability.     

北半球温带气旋的变化

许多学者对近半个世纪以来温带气旋的频数、强度和路径的年际、年代际变化等特征进行了研究,并探讨了温带气旋变化与大气环流的关系,试图揭示气候变暖背景下温带气旋变化的可能原因。较为一致的研究结论是：在全球变暖背景下,北半球气旋活动的变化显示出在中纬度明显减少,而在高纬度增加的趋势,意味着气旋的路径已经明显地北移。研究还表明,气旋活动的变化与对流层斜压性、急流以及北大西洋涛动、海温梯度等因素有关。     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的若干特征

使用NOAA海表温度资料、ECMWF再分析资料和JTWC台风最佳路径数据,对1984—2013年30年西北太平洋热带区域（100 °E~180 °,0~60 °N）内热带气旋（TC）的强度变化特征及其与环境风垂直切变（VWS）、海表温度（SST）、最大风速半径（RMW）的关系作了统计分析,尤其关注TC强度突变。结果表明:（1）在研究区域内,TC样本中35.2%强度稳定,52.8%强度变化缓慢,仅12.0%强度突变,约92.7%的迅速加强TC样本发生在其台风及以上强度等级;（2）2000年以来,TC强度稳定样本减少,强度迅速变化样本增多。5月和9—10月是TC强度突变的高频期;（3）超过12 m/s的环境VWS下TC迅速加强较少,且只有台风及以上强度TC才能在大于12 m/s的VWS下迅速加强;（4）TC加强和迅速加强主要在28.5~30.0 ℃的SST洋面上发生,在较低SST下仍迅速加强的TC强度等级较高;（5）TC样本的RMW多小于100 km,其中强度突变TC RMW峰值区在20~40 km;（6）加强TC的RMW的24 h变化一般减小,减弱TC的RMW则增大;其中强度突变TC尤其明显,超强台风发生迅速加强时,RMW减小的比率达84.6%,但仍有15.4%比率的RMW增大。