MWHS/FY-3资料同化在四川盆地暴雨预报中的应用研究

为了研究同化风云三号B星(FY-3B)和C星(FY-3C)的微波湿度计(MWHS及MWHS-2)观测资料在四川暴雨数值预报中的影响,本文基于Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)及其三维变分同化系统Weather Research Forecast Variatinal Data Assimilation System(WRFDA),实现了对MWHS/FY-3B和MWHS-2/FY-3C观测资料的直接同化。针对2018年7月的一次四川盆地区域性暴雨过程的同化试验结果表明:同化风云三号系列卫星的微波湿度计观测资料对试验开始时刻均有改善,对相对湿度和矢量风场等物理量场有一定的正向调整作用,尤其是同化MWHS-2/FY-3C资料对风场的调整较为明显。同化试验对龙门山北部降水有较明显的改善作用,改善了降水的分布与落区,其中同化MWHS/FY-3B对盆地中部到东北部的降水量级的预报更接近实况,雨区更为连续。同化试验证明了同化风云三号系列卫星的微波湿度计观测资料对于四川盆地暴雨数值预报有一定的业务应用价值。      

基于亮温通道变率的FY-3C微波湿度计陆地云检测新方法

云检测是卫星资料同化的重要前处理步骤,无论是晴空资料同化还是有云资料同化,都需要准确地区分有云和晴空资料。由于陆地地表发射率的多变性和微波能穿透部分云类的特点,微波湿度计资料在陆地上空的云检测研究一直是难点。利用快速辐射传输模式（CRTM）分析了不同云类条件下FY-3C微波湿度计（MWHS-Ⅱ）各通道亮温的通道间变率特征,根据MWHS-Ⅱ亮温通道间变率随云高以及云中液态水含量的增大而减小的特点,提出了一个基于亮温通道变率的MWHS-Ⅱ陆地资料云检测方法。与已有的云产品比较结果表明:新的云检测算法能有效地剔除大部分受云影响的资料,剔除后的晴空资料观测和模拟偏差更好地符合高斯分布。新方法对过冷水云、冰云、重叠云的检测能力较强,正确检测率可以达到80%,对卷云以及高度较低的水云的检测能力相对较弱。新方法能有效利用MWHS-Ⅱ观测资料自身完成云检测,在MWHS-Ⅱ资料同化中有很好的应用前景。      

FY-3B/MWHS性能参数在轨实时监测

2010年11月5日发射的风云三号B星 (FY-3B) 是我国第2代极轨气象卫星的第2颗星。其上装载的微波湿度计 (MWHS) 在183 GHz水汽吸收线设计了3个大气探测通道,在大气窗区150 GHz设置了双极化通道。该文主要对FY-3B微波湿度计系统进行介绍,分析其在轨5年的性能,对仪器在轨关键性能参数进行了长时间序列分析,结果表明:仪器各通道灵敏度均优于0.4 K,其中通道1,2,4,5的灵敏度优于0.3 K,定标精度稳定在0.3~0.55 K,未出现恶化现象, 同类型在轨载荷星下点处匹配数据交叉比对,相关系数优于96%。分析表明,该仪器在轨性能和数据质量均优于FY-3A微波湿度计。同时,利用微波湿度计实测数据,着重分析2015年6—7月若干台风的生成、演化、增强和消亡的整个过程,并对台风区域强降雨监测进行分析。     

采用双权重算法进行FY-3A微波湿度计资料质量控制试验

针对FY-3A卫星微波湿度计MWHS(Microwave Humidity Sounder)资料的质量控制进行研究.选用2010年冬季1月17-23日FY-3A微波湿度计MWHS LlC格式的全球观测资料作为研究对象,采用双权重算法对观测增量O-B进行质量控制,其中O是Fy-3A微波湿度计观测的亮度温度,B是基于NCEP GFS全球预报系统6h预报场用辐射传输模式RTTOV模拟的亮度温度值,目的是剔除受地表发射率或云影响的离群资料.结果表明,通过双权重的质量控制后,FY-3AMWHS3、4、5通道O-B的标准差明显减小了2～3K,同时,质量控制后O-B偏差和标准差随时间窗变化也很稳定,可见该方法除去异常资料的效果较为理想,能够应用到卫星资料的质量控制中.     

Impact of assimilating FY-3C MWHS2 data in the RMAPS-ST forecast system on its rainfall forecasts

中层水汽初值的误差是数值预报,尤其是短期预报不确定性的重要来源.星载微波湿度计资料能很好地弥补常规资料的不足,同化微波湿度计资料对改善对流层中高层的水汽初始场精度有着重要意义.本研究基于新一代快速更新多尺度资料分析和预报系统短期数值预报系统(RMAPS-ST),选取2019年6月4-6日中国华中地区降水过程开展了 FY...     

FY-3C微波湿温探测仪辐射测量特性

2013年9月发射的FY-3C是我国第2代极轨气象卫星的第3颗星,其上装载的微波湿温探测仪在118 GHz氧气吸收线和183 GHz水汽吸收线设计了两组大气探测通道,在大气窗区设置了89 GHz和150 GHz探测通道。为保证微波湿温探测仪在轨定量应用,卫星发射前完成了地面热真空试验。该文介绍了热真空定标试验原理,并对FY-3C微波湿温探测仪正样产品真空试验数据进行了定量分析。数据分析结果表明:FY-3C微波湿温探测仪正样产品15个探测通道的灵敏度均满足设计指标要求,各通道观测亮温间相对独立,定标准确度优于1.6 K,真空试验过程中微波湿温探测仪定标结果稳定。FY-3C微波湿温探测仪发射前热真空定标特性分析结果为仪器在轨定量应用奠定了基础。     

FY-3A微波资料偏差订正及台风路径预报应用

我国极轨气象卫星FY-3A大大增强了对地球系统的综合探测能力,而偏差订正对卫星资料的应用非常必要。试验中FY-3A卫星微波资料的偏差订正方案是在Harris等的TOVS辐射资料偏差订正经验方法的基础上结合WRF-3DVAR系统发展的,偏差订正后微波资料各通道拟合结果基本位于主对角线上,大多数卫星观测数据与观测算子利用背景场计算的亮温值分布趋于合理,偏差得到很大程度的降低。偏差订正后,利用数值模式直接同化FY-3A气象卫星微波资料,通过对2008年和2009年的4个台风进行预报评估表明:同化FY-3A气象卫星资料后路径预报能力提高明显,尤其是36 h后路径预报结果;同化FY-3A气象卫星微波资料后台风预报路径误差平均降低20%,而只同化常规资料路径误差仅仅降低了4%。     

FY-3A SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENTS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST

China’s new generation of polar-orbiting meteorological satellite FY-3A was successfully launched on May 26,2008,carrying microwave sounding devices which had similar performance to ATOVS of NOAA series.In order to study the application of microwave sounding data in numerical prediction of typhoons and to improve typhoon forecasting,we assimilated data directly for numerical forecasting of the track and intensity of the 2009 typhoon Morakot(0908)based on the WRF-3DVar system.Results showed that the initial fields of the numerical model due to direct assimilation of FY-3A microwave sounding data was improved much more than that due to assimilation of conventional observations alone,and the improvement was especially significant over the ocean,which is always without conventional observations.The model initial fields were more reasonable in reflecting the initial situation of typhoon circulation as well as temperature and humidity conditions,and typhoon central position at sea was also adjusted.Through direct 3DVar assimilation of FY-3A microwave data,the regional mesoscale model improves the forecasting of typhoon track.Therefore,the FY-3A microwave data could efficiently improve the numerical prediction of typhoons.     

评估FY-3A微波湿度计O-B对云的识别能力

应用FY-3A微波湿度计2010年1月份的Level-1c观测亮度温度O,NCEP GFS 6 h的预报场作为背景场,用RTTOV 9.3版本辐射传输模式模拟的亮度温度B以及美国NOAA-18 MHS业务微波地表和降水产品,研究了双权重质量控制算法对FY-3A MWHS 通道3至5云和降水视场的识别能力。研究表明双权重质量控制算法判断的负观测增量O-B的离群点中,大多数都受云和降水影响。通道3约占60%,通道4约80%,通道5超过80%。当降水率大于0.2 mm·h^-1时,通道3负离群点可识别超过60%降水云,随着降水率增大识别率超过80%。而通道4对大于0.2 mm·h^-1的降水的识别率超过90%。通道5负离群点几乎可以剔除100%的降水影响资料。在目前还没有MWHS自身云检测产品的条件下,双权重质量控制算法可剔除大部分云和降水影响视野。     

Retrieval of Oceanic Total Precipitable Water Vapor and Cloud Liquid Water from Fengyun-3D Microwave Sounding Instruments

Fengyun-3 D(FY-3 D) satellite is the latest polar-orbiting meteorological satellite launched by China and carries 10 instruments onboard. Its microwave temperature sounder(MWTS) and microwave humidity sounder(MWHS) can acquire a total of 28 channels of brightness temperatures, providing rich information for profiling atmospheric temperature and moisture. However, due to a lack of two important frequencies at 23.8 and 31.4 GHz, it is difficult to retrieve the total precipitable water vapor(TPW) and cloud liquid water path(CLW) from FY-3 D microwave sounder data as commonly done for other microwave sounding instruments. Using the channel similarity between Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership(NPP) advanced technology microwave sounder(ATMS) and FY-3 D microwave sounding instruments, a machine learning(ML) technique is used to generate the two missing low-frequency channels of MWTS and MWHS. Then, a new dataset named as combined microwave sounder(CMWS) is obtained,which has the same channel setting as ATMS but the spatial resolution is consistent with MWTS. A statistical inversion method is adopted to retrieve TPW and CLW over oceans from the FY-3 D CMWS. The intercomparison between different satellites shows that the inversion products of FY-3 D CMWS and Suomi NPP ATMS have good consistency in magnitude and distribution. The correlation coefficients of retrieved TPW and CLW between CMWS and ATMS can reach 0.95 and 0.85, respectively.     

风云三号卫星微波湿度计的扫描角偏差订正

首先统计分析了FY-3A卫星MWHS(Micro Wave Humidity Sounder,微波湿度计)2010年1月整月和8月28日—9月6日Level-1b全球观测亮度温度T_O和背景场(NCEP GFS 6 h预报场)用辐射传输模式(美国通用辐射传输模式CRTM 2.0版本)模拟的亮度温度T_B随扫描角的分布特征,发现通道3和4的观测随仪器扫描角有抖动、不连续现象。同时沿着仪器扫描线在星下点两测存在观测不对称现象,而且权重函数峰值越接近地面的通道该不对称现象越明显。在统计观测增量T_O-T_B随扫描角和纬度变化的基础上,定量给出了不同纬度带内(每隔5个纬度)MWHS通道3、4和5的扫描角偏差订正系数,该系数可直接提供给各种资料同化系统同化FY-3A MWHS资料时使用。     

FY-3A MWHS资料的质量控制——以四川“8.19”暴雨为例

FY-3A MWHS微波湿度计辐射率资料空间分辨率高,同化后能有效地提高中尺度系统的数值预报的准确率。但如果不进行质量控制,任由误差大的离群微波资料进入同化系统,将会降低分析场精度,影响预报准确率。本文选取2010年8月17~19日的暴雨个例,应用主成分分析(PCA)方法,找出FY-3A微波湿度计数据中的离群值。结果表明:采用PCA方法,3天的资料总共识别出148个离群值样本,占总数的19.3%,其中通道三离群值占5.5%,通道四离群值占8.2%,通道五占5.4%。去除这些离群值后的MWHS数据总体分布,更靠近数据中心,各EOF方差贡献更加平滑。这说明PCA方法是一种可以抵抗少数离群值对总平均值影响的有效质量控制方法。      

Evaluation of All-Sky Assimilation of FY-3C/MWHS-2 on Mei-yuPrecipitation Forecasts over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin

正1School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610025, China2International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China     

FY-3A微波资料在“莫拉克”台风预报中的同化试验

我国新一代极轨气象卫星FY-3A于2008年5月26日发射成功,携带的微波垂直探测仪与NOAA系列卫星的ATOVS性能相似。为研究微波垂直探测仪资料在台风数值预报中的作用,实现我国FY-3A卫星的微波探测资料的直接同化,达到改进台风预报的目的,利用FY-3A微波探测资料,以WRF-3DVar系统为基础,针对2009年第8号台风"莫拉克"路径和强度预报,开展数值预报直接同化技术研究。试验结果表明,直接同化FY-3A微波资料对数值模式初始场改进要优于仅仅同化常规观测资料,对缺乏观测资料的海洋上改进尤为明显,模式初始场更加合理地反映海上台风环流形势以及温湿条件,海上台风的模式初始位置也得到了校正;经过FY-3A微波资料三维变分直接同化后,区域中尺度模式对台风路径预报效果具有积极的改善作用。     

Estimating the Correlated Observation-Error Characteristics of the Chinese FengYun Microwave Temperature Sounder and Microwave Humidity Sounder

In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.     

FY-3A/MWHS冷空测值受月球影响分析及修正

为解决月球对风云三号卫星微波湿度计在轨实时辐射定标的影响问题,该文根据风云三号卫星微波湿度计在轨实时观测数据分析,通过多项式拟合分析技术,建立修正模型,消除月球影响,得到合理的辐射定标结果。风云三号卫星微波湿度计在轨实测数据分析表明:月球对风云三号卫星微波湿度计在轨辐射定标结果影响最严重时一天内可干扰4~5条轨道,每条轨道有近100个扫描周期受到污染。月球影响致使冷空定标观测数据跳升1000个计数值,如果不进行污染滤除会造成对地观测亮温下降约20 K,导致辐射资料无法同化进入数值天气预报模式。通过与同类载荷的交叉比对分析,修正月球影响后,风云三号卫星微波湿度计在轨实时辐射定标结果精度与在轨测试结果相当。     

GNSS反演资料在GRAPES_Meso三维变分中的应用

为了进一步提高GRAPES_Meso的分析和预报效果,该文在GRAPES_Meso三维变分同化系统中建立了同化GNSS/RO反演的大气资料的观测算子,实现了对GNSS/RO反演的大气资料的同化应用,并通过2013年7月1个月的同化和预报试验分析了GNSS/RO反演大气资料对GRAPES_Meso模式系统分析和预报的影响。结果表明:增加了GNSS/RO反演大气资料的同化后,GRAPES_Meso位势高度场的分析误差明显减小,平均分析误差减小约8%,预报误差略有减小,平均预报误差减小约1%;湿度场的分析误差和预报误差变化不明显,常规观测资料稀少的青藏高原地区的降水预报技巧有所提高,小雨到大雨的ETS (equitable threat score) 评分提高约0.01,对全国及其他分区的降水预报技巧总体上有正效果。     

Assimilation of Ocean Surface Wind Data by the HY-2B Satellite in GRAPES: Impacts on Analyses and Forecasts

The ocean surface wind(OSW) data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface, thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of global medium-range weather prediction models. To improve the forecast skills of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Global Forecast System(GRAPES＿GFS), the HY-2B OSW data is assimilated into the GRAPES＿GFS four-dimensio...     

Development and initial assessment of a new land index for microwave humidity sounder cloud detection

This paper describes a new quality control (QC) scheme for microwave humidity sounder (MHS) data assimilation. It consists of a cloud detection step and an O–B (i.e., differences of brightness temperatures between observations and model simulations) check. Over ocean, cloud detection can be carried out based on two MHS window channels and two Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) window channels, which can be used for obtaining cloud ice water path (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), respectively. Over land, cloud detection of microwave data becomes much more challenging due to a much larger emission contribution from land surface than that from cloud. The current MHS cloud detection over land employs an O–B based method, which could fail to identify cloudy radiances when there is mismatch between actual clouds and model clouds. In this study, a new MHS observation based index is developed for identifying MHS cloudy radiances over land. The new land index for cloud detection exploits the large variability of brightness temperature observations among MHS channels over different clouds. It is shown that those MHS cloudy radiances that were otherwise missed by the current O–B based QC method can be successfully identified by the new land index. An O–B check can then be employed to the remaining data after cloud detection to remove additional outliers with model simulations deviated greatly from observations. It is shown that MHS channel correlations are significantly reduced by the newly proposed QC scheme.     

Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the “21·7” Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall

Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI) clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed. The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV) channels with conventional observations for the “21·7” Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study. The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition ...