Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature(SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study,we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover(ASIC) in September–October 2014 was lower than normal,and warmer sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies occurred in the Ni ?no4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Ni ?no4 phase(autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Ni ?no4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January–February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January–February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase,the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.     

The impact of El Ni?o on South American summer climate during different phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In austral summer, the observed El Ni?o (EN) events during warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases (PDO(+)) exhibited large anomalous upper level wave patterns in response to larger Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans compared with SST anomalies in EN events during cold PDO phases (PDO(?)). The precipitation anomalies in PDO(+) EN are increased over Southeastern South America (SESA) associated with the intensification of the moisture flux convergence in this region. The PDO(?) EN events exhibit positive precipitation anomalies only over southern SESA, while negative anomalies were observed in the north. Downward motion and anomalous divergence over central eastern Brazil may have contributed to the weakening of the northwesterly moisture flux convergence associated with the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) over the subtropics. The extratropical cyclones showed higher frequency and lower central pressures in southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and Southwest Atlantic Ocean during the PDO(+) EN events compared with the PDO(?) EN events. Such increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclogenesis cases seems to be in accordance with the anomalous moisture flux convergence over the SESA and associated reduction in the Sea Level Pressure observed during PDO(+) EN events. In order to investigate the impact of a canonical El Ni?o event over South America under different PDO phases, two numerical experiments were done with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Global SST and ice sea fields average over years characterized by (a) PDO(+) and (b) PDO(?) were considered as climatologically fields, and a composite of anomalies of SST of all El Ni?o events observed in 1950?C1999 was added in the region 20oS?C20oN;120oW?C175oW of both ??climatologies.?? The differences in experiments suggest that a canonical EN may produce significant different anomalous atmospheric patterns associated with distinct PDO climatologies. The more significant differences are simulated over extreme northern and eastern Brazil. Additional numerical experiments isolating the observed variability of SST over several oceanic basins during different PDO phases will be conducted to study their particular role on the South American climate.     

Different Impact of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nio on the Duration of Sudden Stratospheric Warming

The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Had ISST dataset(1959–2014) are used to analyze the impact of two types of El Nio events, i.e., eastern Pacific El Nio(EP-El Nio) and central Pacific El Nio(CP-El Nio) events, on the duration of major and minor sudden stratospheric warmings(SSWs) in Northern Hemisphere winter(November to February). Although the frequency of major and minor SSWs during different types of El Nio shows no distinct differences, the duration of both major and minor SSWs during CP-El Nio is shorter than that during EP-El Nio. The spatial distribution of geopotential height anomalies preceding major SSWs resembles the western Pacific(WP) teleconnection pattern, while the spatial distribution of geopotential height anomalies preceding minor SSWs bears similarity to the Pacific–North America(PNA)teleconnection pattern. An enhancement of the strength of both wavenumber 1 and wavenumber 2 is found before major SSWs. Before minor SSWs, wavenumber 1 is also strengthened, but wavenumber 2 is weakened. The analysis also reveals that EP-El Nio tends to induce positive phases of PNA and WP teleconnections, while CP-El Nio induces negative-phase WP teleconnection. As the positive phases of the PNA and WP teleconnections are related to the strengthening of wavenumber 1, EP-El Nio causes an enhancement of wavenumber 1 in the high-latitude upper troposphere and an enhancement of the upward wave flux in the high-latitude stratosphere, accompanied by a negative anomaly in Eliassen–Palm flux divergence in the subpolar stratosphere, which accounts for the longer SSW duration during EP-El Nio than during CP-El Nio.     

CMIP5模式对AMO与PDO模拟评估及未来预估

利用1880-2009年海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)观测资料以及耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)中4种情景(piControl、historical、RCP2.6、RCP4.5)下的模...     

太平洋年代际振荡冷、暖背景下ENSO循环的特征

利用英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海温距平资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所联合环境分析中心(JEDAC)的海表和次表层海温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)不同背景下ENSO循环的特征.结果表明,PDO为ENSO循环提供了一个年代际气候背景,在PDO的暖位相时期,El Nino事件发生的频率较高,强度较强;反之,在PDO的冷位相时期,La Nina事件发生的频率较高,强度较强.而且在不同的太平洋年代际振荡背景下,ENSO循环表现出不同的特征.在PDO冷位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA从西太平洋沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道东太平洋向西扩展到中太平洋,ENSO事件先在赤道东太平洋爆发.在PDO的暖位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA首先出现在赤道中太平洋,然后沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道中太平洋向东扩展到东太平洋,ENSO事件首先在中太平洋爆发.这为ENSO预测提供了新的线索.     

全球变暖情景下太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)时空特征变化分析

基于CMIP5多模式中的历史情景与全球变暖情景资料以及观测海温数据,利用EOF分析,回归分析、功率谱分析等方法对北太平洋区域冬季海—气耦合系统进行了研究,进而分析了全球变暖背景下太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)时空特征的变化.通过对比观测资料中1934年前后的PDO时空特征,发现在全球变暖的背景下,PDO强度得到加强,PDO...     

Evaluating the formation mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

Based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs of the multi-model ensemble of 32 models participating in CMIP5, the present study evaluates the formation mechanisms for the patterns of changes in equatorial Pacific SST under global warming.Two features with complex formation processes, the zonal El Ni ?no-like pattern and the meridional equatorial peak warming(EPW), are investigated. The climatological evaporation is the main contributor to the El Ni ?no-like pattern, while the ocean dynamical thermostat effect plays a comparable negative role. The cloud–shortwave-radiation–SST feedback and the weakened Walker circulation play a small positive role in the El Ni ?no-like pattern. The processes associated with ocean dynamics are confined to the equator. The climatological evaporation is also the dominant contributor to the EPW pattern, as suggested in previous studies. However, the effects of some processes are inconsistent with previous studies. For example,changes in the zonal heat advection due to the weakened Walker circulation have a remarkable positive contribution to the EPW pattern, and changes in the shortwave radiation play a negative role in the EPW pattern.     

CMIP5耦合模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟与预估

利用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）40个模式的模拟资料和分类集合的方法,评估了耦合模式对20世纪太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）特征的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP5多数模式对PDO周期有着较好的刻画能力,能模拟出PDO的年代际变化周期。模式对PDO模态空间特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,小部分模式模拟效果较差。进一步的分析表明,对PDO模态模拟较好的第1类模式,能较好地再现热带太平洋与北太平洋海表温度异常（SSTA）年代际变化间的关系,而且热带太平洋SSTA通过大气遥相关影响北太平样海表温度的过程也模拟的较成功。对PDO模态模拟差的模式,不能合理模拟出热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋海表温度影响的遥相关过程。以上研究也证实了热带太平洋地区海表温度的年代际变率对北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的重要影响,热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋SSTA的影响是通过大气遥相关实现的。利用CMIP5中等排放情景模拟结果,分析了第1类模式预估的北太平洋年代际变率的特征,发现21世纪北太平洋年代际变率的主要模态为一致的正异常分布且呈现明显的上升趋势,第二模态则表现为类似于20世纪典型PDO的马蹄型SSTA分布。     

太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献

基于1961—2013年中国台站的均一化气温数据、NOAA月平均海温资料和CMIP5气候模式数据,利用气候统计手段,定量分析太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献。结果表明：PDO的年代际序列与年代际滤波后的最低气温场在全国大部分地区呈显著正相关,即PDO负位相时中国冬季最低气温偏低,反之偏高。2006年后中国冬季最低气温变暖减缓,造成这一现象的主要原因是自然变率起到的降温作用,而自然变率又主要由PDO起主导作用,约占自然变率贡献的40%左右。PDO对温度的贡献呈现出明显的年代际变化,在变暖减缓期对升温有明显的负贡献,且负贡献逐渐增大至超过50%。     

Parallel Comparison of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 Super El Nios and Their Effects on the Extratropical Stratosphere

This study uses multiple sea surface temperature(SST) datasets to perform a parallel comparison of three super El Ni os and their effects on the stratosphere. The results show that, different from ordinary El Ni os, warm SST anomalies appear earliest in the western tropical Pacific and precede the super El Ni o peak by more than 18 months. In the previous winter,relative to the mature phase of El Ni o, as a precursor, North Pacific Oscillation-like circulation anomalies are observed. A Pacific–North America(PNA) teleconnection appears in the extratropical troposphere during the mature phase, in spite of the subtle differences between the intensities, as well as the zonal position, of the PNA lobes. Related to the negative rainfall response over the tropical Indian Ocean, the PNA teleconnection in the winter of 1997/98 is the strongest among the three super El Ni os. The northern winter stratosphere shows large anomalies in the polar cap temperature and the circumpolar westerly, if the interferences from other factors are linearly filtered from the circulation data. Associated with the positive PNA response in a super El Ni o winter, positive polar cap temperature anomalies and circumpolar easterly anomalies,though different in timing, are also observed in the mature winters of the three super El Ni os. The stratospheric polar vortex in the next winter relative to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events is also anomalously weaker and warmer, and the stratospheric circulation conditions remain to be seen in the coming winter following the mature phase of the 2015/16 event.     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.     

North Pacific SST Forcing on the Central United States “Warming Hole” as Simulated in CMIP5 Coupled Historical and Uncoupled AMIP Experiments

The central United States experienced a cooling trend during the twentieth century, called the “warming hole,” most notably in the last quarter of the century when global warming accelerated. The coupled simulations of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3/5), have been unable to reproduce this abnormal cooling phenomenon satisfactorily. An unrealistic representation of the observed phasing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—one of the proposed forcing mechanisms for the warming hole—in the models is considered to be one of the main causes of this effect. The CMIP5’s uncoupled Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment, whose duration approximately coincides with the peak warming hole cooling period, provides an opportunity, when compared with the coupled historical experiment, to examine the role of the variation in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in the warming hole’s formation and also to assess the skill of the models in simulating the teleconnection between Pacific SST and the continental climate in North America. Accordingly, this study compared AMIP and historical runs in the CMIP5 suite thereby isolating the role of SST forcing in the formation of the warming hole and its maintenance mechanisms. It was found that, even when SST forcing in the AMIP run was “perfectly” prescribed in the models, the skill of the models in simulating the warming hole cooling in the central United States showed little improvement over the historical run, in which SST is calculated interactively, even though the AMIP run overestimated the anti-correlation between temperature in the central United States and the PDO index. The fact that better simulation of the PDO phasing in the AMIP run did not translate into an improved summer cooling trend in the central United States suggests that the inability of the coupled CMIP5 models to reproduce the warming hole under the historical run is not mainly a result of the mismatch between simulated and observed PDO phasing, as believed.     

Quantitative assessment of the climate components driving the pacific decadal oscillation in climate models

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is defined as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In this study, we reconstructed the PDO using the first-order autoregressive model from various climate indices representing the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Aleutian Low (AL), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region. The climate indices were obtained from observation and twentieth-century simulations of the eight coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3). In this manner, we quantitatively assessed the major climate components generating the PDO using observation and models. Based on observations, the PDO pattern in the central to eastern North Pacific was accurately reconstructed by the AL and ENSO indices, and that in the western North Pacific was best reconstructed by the SSH and thermocline indices. In the CMIP3 CGCMs, the relative contribution of each component to the generation of the PDO varied greatly from model to model, and observations, although the PDO patterns from most of the models were similar to the pattern observed. In the models, the PDO pattern in the eastern and western North Pacific were well reconstructed using the AL and SSH indices, respectively. However, the PDO pattern reconstructed by the ENSO index was quite different from the observed pattern, which was possibly due to the model's common deficiency in simulating the amplitude and location of the ENSO. Furthermore, the differences in the contribution of the KOE thermocline index between the observed pattern and most of the models indicated that the PDO pattern associated with ocean wave dynamics is not properly simulated by most models. Therefore, the virtually well simulated PDO pattern by models is a result of physically inconsistent processes.     

Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon

Using long-term observational data and numerical model experiments, the combined effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon is examined. In the observations, it is found that when the ENSO and PDO are in-phase combinations (i.e., El Niño/positive PDO phase and La Niña/negative PDO phase), a negative relationship between ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon is significantly intensified. In other words, when El Niño (La Niña) occurs with positive (negative) PDO phase, anomalous warm (cold) temperatures are dominant over the East Asian winter continent. On the other hand, there are no significant temperature anomalies when the ENSO and PDO are out-of-phase combinations (i.e., El Niño/negative PDO phase and La Niña/positive PDO phase). Further analyses indicate that the anticyclone over the western North Pacific including the East Asian marginal seas plays an essential role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon under the changes of ENSO–PDO phase relationship. Long-lasting high pressure and warm sea surface temperature anomalies during the late fall/winter and following spring over the western North Pacific, which appear as the El Niño occurs with positive PDO phase, can lead to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon by transporting warm and wet conditions into the East Asian continent through the southerly wind anomalies along the western flank of the anomalous high pressure, and vice versa as the La Niña occurs with negative PDO phase. In contrast, the anomalous high pressure over the western North Pacific does not show a prominent change under the out-of-phase combinations of ENSO and PDO. Numerical model experiments confirm the observational results, accompanying dominant warm temperature anomalies over East Asia via strong anticyclonic circulation anomalies near the Philippine Sea as the El Niño occurs with positive PDO phase, whereas such warming is weakened as the El Niño occurs with negative PDO phase. This result supports the argument that the changes in the East Asian winter monsoon intensity with ENSO are largely affected by the strength of the anticyclone over the western North Pacific, which significantly changes according to the ENSO–PDO phase relationship.     

Evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the South Pacific Quadrupole-ENSO relationship

先前的观测研究表明,南太平洋四极子海温模态(SPQ)可以有效地作为ENSO的前兆信号.本文利用20个CMIP6模式及其对应的20个先前的CMIP5模式的工业化前气候模拟试验数据,评估和比较了CMIP6以及CMIP5模式对SPQ与ENSO的关系的模拟能力.结果表明,大多数CMIP5和CMIP6模式可以合理地模拟SPQ的基...     

CMIP6全球气候模式对中国极端降水模拟能力的评估及其与CMIP5的比较

对CMIP6全球气候模式在中国地区极端降水的模拟能力进行了综合评估.基于CN05.1观测数据集和32个CMIP6全球气候模式的降水数据,采用8个常用极端降水指数对极端降水进行了定量描述.研究结果表明,在极端降水的气候平均态方面,CMIP6多模式集合对1961—2005年中国地区区域平均的8个极端降水指数模拟的平均相对误...     

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.     

Nonlinearity Modulating Intensities and Spatial Structures of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nio Events

This paper compares data from linearized and nonlinear Zebiak–Cane model, as constrained by observed sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA), in simulating central Pacific(CP) and eastern Pacific(EP) El Nio. The difference between the temperature advections(determined by subtracting those of the linearized model from those of the nonlinear model),referred to here as the nonlinearly induced temperature advection change(NTA), is analyzed. The results demonstrate that the NTA records warming in the central equatorial Pacific during CP El Nio and makes fewer contributions to the structural distinctions of the CP El Nio, whereas it records warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific during EP El Nio, and thus significantly promotes EP El Nio during El Nio–type selection. The NTA for CP and EP El Nio varies in its amplitude,and is smaller in CP El Nio than it is in EP El Nio. These results demonstrate that CP El Nio are weakly modulated by small intensities of NTA, and may be controlled by weak nonlinearity; whereas, EP El Nio are significantly enhanced by large amplitudes of NTA, and are therefore likely to be modulated by relatively strong nonlinearity. These data could explain why CP El Nio are weaker than EP El Nio. Because the NTA for CP and EP El Nio differs in spatial structures and intensities, as well as their roles within different El Nio modes, the diversity of El Nio may be closely related to changes in the nonlinear characteristics of the tropical Pacific.