BCC-AGCM-Chem0模式对20世纪对流层臭氧变化趋势的模拟研究

利用IPCC第5阶段试验计划(CMIP5)整理提供的全球臭氧(O_3)分析资料和全球O_3和紫外线辐射数据中心(WOJDC)提供的O_3台站观测资料评估了国家气候中心最新发展的全球大气化学环流模式BCC-AGCM-Chem0对对流层大气O_3变化趋势的模拟能力。结果表明,BCC-AGCM—Chem0模式对对流层O_3的变化趋势具有较好的模拟能力,具体表现在:(1)BCC-AGCM—Chem0模式可以较好地模拟出1871-1999年全球对流层不同高度O_3浓度逐渐升高的基本特征;(2)BCC—AGCM-Chem0模式对1871-1999全球对流层O_3柱浓度纬圈平均异常变化的模拟与CMIP5资料一致,北半球升高趋势明显大于南半球,且升高最大区域的中心位置和强度也与CMIP5资料一致;(3)BCC-AGCM—Chem0模式对1000~300 hPa整体O_3柱浓度变化趋势模拟较好,对O_3柱浓度快速上升的区域和上升速度的模拟都与CMIP5资料一致,但对低层O_3柱浓度升高模拟偏强,对高层O_3柱浓度变化模拟偏弱;(4)与台站观测资料对比,在对流层中低层模拟结果在亚洲Sapporo站和欧洲Hohenpeissenberg站与实际观测比较接近,并与CMIP5资料相似,均呈升高趋势。对流层中高层模式模拟的O_3浓度异常存在明显的周期变化,与台站观测结果一致。     

探空资料中的人为误差对中国温度长期变化趋势的影响

利用1958～2005年探空温度序列, 通过质量控制、均一化处理和序列缺测率分析, 探讨了探空资料中人为误差对中国高空气温变化趋势的影响。中国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 72%的序列包含2～4个间断点。相应的订正总体上降低了1958年以来平流层低层降温和对流层升温趋势, 如700 hPa和100 hPa平均趋势值分别降低0.12 K/10 a和0.04 K/10 a。缺测率是气温区域平均趋势估算的重要参数, 30%作为最大缺测率是中国探空温度序列适宜的取样标准。提高取样标准 (台站数减少) 使1958～2005年间对流层上层和平流层下层的降温趋势减弱。中国高空气温变化趋势与全球或北半球大体一致, 但也有不同特点: 500 hPa以下大气趋于升温, 以上则趋于降温, 最大降温趋势位于对流上部的300 hPa, 而且各气候区间区域差异性十分明显。     

CMIP6模式中的中国冬季气温主要区域空间模态及与观测的对比分析

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）的全球气候模式历史模拟试验资料，通过旋转经验正交函数分析得到了CMIP6模式中的我国冬季气温变化主要的区域空间模态。结果表明：CMIP6多模式集合平均中我国冬季气温有4个主要的区域空间模态，分别为中原—西北型，华南型，东北型以及滇藏型。其中，东北型与滇藏型是较为稳定的空间模态，在所选CMIP6模式及观测资料中都稳定存在，这也是前人研究中一致性较高的模态。而我国新疆、西北、华中及华南地区的冬季气温在空间分型上存在分歧，这些地区的分型在以往研究中的一致性也较差。华南型在所选CMIP6模式内是一致存在的模态，中原—西北型在模式内部的差异性较大。在近40 a观测资料中，新疆及西北到我国南方为统一的空间分型，在CMIP6多模式集合平均的结果中新疆及西北地区气温空间分布与我国中原地区的联系更为紧密。CMIP6模式能较好地模拟出与低温空间分布有直接联系的对流层中层的槽的位置，当CMIP6模式和观测中的冬季气温都表现为同一个空间模态时，该模态所对应的对流层中层的主要环流系统在观测和CMIP6模式中也是一致的。     

CMIP模式对冬季北半球大气环流与青藏高原冬春季气温相关关系的模拟评估

本文评估了36个CMIP5模式和39个CMIP6模式对近期观测中揭示的北半球冬季大气环流与高原冬春气温之间的相关关系的模拟能力。利用最大协方差(MCA)分析方法,计算并比较了观测和模式中冬季北半球200 hPa位势高度场与同后期青藏高原近地面气温的耦合关系。整体而言,大部分CMIP模式能够模拟出显著的冬季北半球大气环流与青藏高原气温之间的相关关系,且CMIP6模式模拟相关特征和作用机制的能力较CMIP5均有所提升。与观测相比,历史情景下36个CMIP5模式中有26个能够模拟出显著的大气环流与同后期高原气温之间的相关关系,其中对于相关的位势高度场空间模态的模拟明显好于对高原气温异常场空间模态的模拟。同情景下39个CMIP6模式中有37个能模拟出显著相关关系,且CMIP6模式更能模拟出观测中MCA模态的位势高度场上北极涛动(AO)和西太平洋遥相关型(WP)反相位叠加的大气环流特征。在对MCA模态时间变率的模拟上,大部分模式都能重现青藏高原整体变暖的趋势,部分模式能够模拟出观测中位势高度场时间主成分的年际变率,并且CMIP6表现要优于CMIP5。对耦合环流型的动力诊断显示,相比CMIP5模式,CMIP6中有更多模式可以模拟出极地—高原之间的遥相关波列,且对波列结构的模拟更完整。     

BCC-AGCM-Chem0模式对20世纪全球O_3气候平均态及季节变化特征的模拟研究

利用由国家气候中心最近研发的全球大气环流化学模式BCC-AGCM-ChemO对1871-1999年全球大气O_3浓度进行了模拟,并利用全球臭氧和紫外线辐射数据中心(WOUDC)提供的O_3台站观测资料以及第5次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)整理的一套全球O_3分析资料对BCC-AGCM-ChemO模拟的O_3的气候平均态及季节变化特征进行了评估。结果表明:(1)BCC-AGCM-ChemO模式模拟出了全球年平均的O_3空间分布特征,表现为北半球O_3浓度高于南半球,O_3的经向分布大致呈由低纬向高纬递增;模式可以再现台站观测的O_3浓度垂直分布结构;相对于CMIP5分析数据,BCC-AGCM-ChemO模拟的O_3气柱总量在40°S以南的南大洋区域,模拟值偏低3~6 DU,在40°S-50°N中低纬地区略偏高3~6DU,陆地地区差异明显大于海洋地区,这些模拟偏差与地面排放和模式中O_3水平和垂直平流输送的影响有关。(2)BCC-AGCM-ChemO模式对全球O_3浓度的季节变化特征也有较好的模拟能力,模拟的O_3柱浓度与CMIP5资料的结果在1、4、7和10月的全球格点空间相关系数分别达到0.89,0.97,0.86和0.91;模式再现了南、北半球O_3浓度春季偏大、秋季偏小的特点;(3)从模式模拟和台站观测的对比分析来看,500 hPa以上的对流层中高层与以下的对流层中低层的O_3季节变化峰值存在明显的不一致性,表明500 hPa以下的中低层区域O_3变化可能受地面排放和干、湿等过程的影响较大,而对流层中高层的O_3变化可能与化学过程和平流层向下的输送影响较大有关。     

近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势

利用1958—2005年我国116个站探空温度序列研究了我国高空温度变化趋势。首先通过静力学质量控制和两相回归法对原始序列进行了均一化处理。我国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 间断点的订正对于序列的趋势影响较为显著。缺测率是影响我国探空温度序列应用性的重要因子, 也是区域平均趋势统计中台站取舍的指标, 减少台站总数会削弱我国对流层升温和平流层降温的变化趋势。分析表明: 70%作为最小资料有效率标准最为合理。为满足最小资料有效率, 选取92个站统计我国高空温度变化趋势的区域平均值。结果表明: 1958-2005年, 平流层下层和对流层上层降温, 对流层中、低层升温; 高空温度变化趋势与研究时段明显相关, 1958-1978年我国高空大气整层均为降温; 1979—2005年, 对流层中低层升温最为明显, 增暖的幅度随高度增加而减小, 400 hPa以上各层转为降温。对流层的升温始于20世纪80年代, 升温幅度与全球尺度的平均值有所不同。     

近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究

基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850—100 hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过与1979—2017年卫星微波气温的对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。研究表明,1958—2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300 hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层（100 hPa）为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979—2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势较强,平流层下层降温趋势较弱。青藏高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过与卫星微波气温和邻近探空站探空气温的对比以及均一化前后日夜气温差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除21世纪最初10年中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中、上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层升温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近探空站序列调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。      

对流层与下平流层大气重力波的气候及差异特征研究——以太原为例

大气重力波对全球大气的动力、热力结构具有重要影响,研究重力波参数气候特征是研制全球大气模式中重力波参数化的一个重要环节,通过引入重力波的影响,有利于提高大气模式的预报能力。本文利用2014-2017年太原地区(112.55°E,37.78°N)高垂直分辨率探空资料,对其对流层(2～9 km)、下平流层(17～24 km)大气重力波参数的气候特征及其之间差异特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)在1-12月,相对于对流层,下平流层的平均重力波水平波长、周期、固有相速、能量上传百分比均偏大,垂直波长均偏小,但群速在2月、5-9月偏大,其他月份偏小;(2)对流层与下平流层之间的重力波参数偏差、绝对差较大,相关性弱;(3)对流层、下平流层的重力波参数及其之间的偏差,在不同区间范围内的占有率分布特征存在明显差异;通过研究太原地区上空对流层、下平流层大气重力波参数的气候及其之间差异特征,进一步补充了中国区域的大气重力波参数气候特征,有利于研制更适合中国区域数值预报模式的重力波参数化方案。     

MSU/AMSU微波亮温用于海洋高空大气温度气候变化研究的适用性探讨

利用美国大气海洋局卫星应用和研究实验室 (The Center for Satellite Applications and Research,STAR) 提供的MSU/AMSU卫星微波亮温资料V3.0版本,结合三套再分析资料数据集,通过对海洋上空不同高度、不同区域及不同季节的适用性分析,来探讨MSU/AMSU资料在热带海洋区域高空大气的温度变化特征,并通过合成分析揭示亮温资料与海洋的响应关系,从而探讨MSU/AMSU资料在热带海洋区域上的适用性和科学性。结果表明:（1）MSU/AMSU亮温资料在30 °E~70 °W,15 °S~15 °N范围的热带海洋区域适用性较好;（2）热带海洋区域对流层上层和中层大气均呈增温趋势,变化速率分别为0.045 K/(10 a) 和0.107 K/(10 a),增温突变现象出现在1980年代末—1990年代初,平流层低层大气呈降温趋势,变化速率为-0.345 K/(10 a),降温突变现象出现在1990年代中期;（3）在热带海洋区域,高空大气温度的变化趋势具有较强的区域性特征,相对于中东太平洋而言,印度洋-西太平洋区域的增、降温趋势变化更显著。对流层的增温幅度随高度的升高而有所降低。平流层低层的降温趋势在季节内变化不大,而对流层则是秋、冬季的增温趋势要明显大于春、夏季,冬季的增温尤为明显;（4）MSU/AMSU亮温资料对热带海洋温度异常有很好的响应关系,能在弥补海洋区域观测资料稀缺的情况下,对海洋区域起着较好的监测作用。      

基于微波探测资料的全球大气亮温长期变化趋势研究

本文使用1978—2013年美国大气海洋局NOAA研发的STAR V3.0版本的MSU/AMSUA逐月亮温格点数据,引入集合经验模式分解(EEMD)方法,研究了高空大气亮温的非线性变化趋势,尤其注重亮温气候趋势的时间演变特征,并与传统线性回归(CLR)方法做了对比研究。结果表明,在全球对流层增温、平流层降温的大背景下,基于EEMD的亮温非线性趋势演变特征表现为:近10 a对流层中、高层全球平均增暖趋势放缓,甚至出现轻微的降温趋势;北半球对流层增暖首先出现在北极,随后向低纬度方向延伸。北极对流层增暖向上影响高层大气,最高可以扩展到平流层低层。南半球对流层中低纬度地区受北半球大气影响也出现增温。另外,近10 a南极地区出现显著的独立增温现象。平流层变冷北半球最早从中纬度地区开始发生,变冷逐渐增强的同时向极地和低纬度两侧扩张。南极上空平流层大气早期也出现显著变冷,然而随着2000年以后南极大范围增暖,平流层变冷逐渐转移到中低纬地区。     

Uncertainty estimation of the global temperature trends for multiple radiosondes, reanalyses, and CMIP3/IPCC climate model simulations

Based on three groups of datasets that include radiosondes, reanalyses, and climate model simulations (e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) from 1979 to 2008, the interannual variability, global temperature trends, and their uncertainty using ensemble spread among intra-group and inter-group datasets have been discussed. The results show that the interannual temperature variability increased from the troposphere to stratosphere, and the maximum occurs around 50?hPa. The CMIP3 climate models have the largest discrepancy in the stratosphere. The intra-group correlations at 500?hPa generally show high similarity within each data group while the inter-group correlations between reanalyses and the CMIP3 climate model simulations indicate lesser similarity. In contrast, the inter-group correlation at 50?hPa is improved except with the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) reanalysis shows a weak cross correlation. The global temperature trends are highly dependent on the individual data sources. Compared to the radiosondes, the reanalyses show a large ensemble spread of trends in the stratosphere, and the CMIP3 climate model simulations have a large ensemble spread in the height of the crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling. The largest ensemble spread among the reanalyses in the stratosphere is mainly from the large discrepancy in the JRA-25 reanalysis after 1998 and a relatively weak anomaly in the 20CR before 1986. The largest ensemble spread among the CMIP3 climate models in the troposphere is related to the influence of both volcanic eruptions and El Ni?o/La Ni?a–Southern Oscillation events. The strong anomalies corresponding to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1991 are clearly identified in the stratosphere. These volcanic eruptions reduced the warming in the troposphere and strengthened the cooling in the stratosphere during the most recent 30?years.     

A new weighting function for estimating microwave sounding unit channel 4 temperature trends simulated by CMIP5 climate models

A new static microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4 weighting function is obtained from using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical multimodel simulations as inputs into the fast Radiative Transfer Model for TOVS (RTTOV v10). For the same CMIP5 model simulations, it is demonstrated that the computed MSU channel 4 brightness temperature (T4) trends in the lower stratosphere over both the globe and the tropics using the proposed weighting function are equivalent to those calculated by RTTOV, but show more cooling than those computed using the traditional UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) or RSS (Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California) static weighting functions. The new static weighting function not only reduces the computational cost, but also reveals reasons why trends using a radiative transfer model are different from those using a traditional static weighting function. This study also shows that CMIP5 model simulated T4 trends using the traditional UAH or RSS static weighting functions show less cooling than satellite observations over the globe and the tropics. Although not completely removed, this difference can be reduced using the proposed weighting function to some extent, especially over the tropics. This work aims to explore the reasons for the trend differences and to see to what extent they are related to the inaccurate weighting functions. This would also help distinguish other sources for trend errors and thus better understand the climate change in the lower stratosphere.     

Evaluating the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

Total column ozone (TCO) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is lower than that over other regions at the same latitude, particularly in summer. This feature is known as the “TP ozone valley”. This study evaluates long-term changes in TCO and the ozone valley over the TP from 1984 to 2100 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The TP ozone valley consists of two low centers, one is located in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and the other is in the middle and upper stratosphere. Overall, the CMIP6 models simulate the low ozone center in the UTLS well and capture the spatial characteristics and seasonal cycle of the TP ozone valley, with spatial correlation coefficients between the modeled TCO and the Multi Sensor Reanalysis version 2 (MSR2) TCO observations greater than 0.8 for all CMIP6 models. Further analysis reveals that models which use fully coupled and online stratospheric chemistry schemes simulate the anticorrelation between the 150 hPa geopotential height and zonal anomaly of TCO over the TP better than models without interactive chemistry schemes. This suggests that coupled chemical-radiative-dynamical processes play a key role in the simulation of the TP ozone valley. Most CMIP6 models underestimate the low center in the middle and upper stratosphere when compared with the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. However, the bias in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone simulations has a marginal effect on the simulation of the TP ozone valley. Most CMIP6 models predict the TP ozone valley in summer will deepen in the future.     

30-Year atmospheric temperature record derived by one-dimensional variational data assimilation of MSU/AMSU-A observations

In the past, satellite observations of the microwave radiation emitted from the atmosphere have been directly utilized for deriving the climate tends of vertical-layer-averaged atmospheric temperatures. This study presents the 30-year atmospheric temperature trend derived by one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) data assimilation of Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (MSU/AMSU-A) observations. Firstly, the radiance measurements from MSU on board the early National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-6 to NOAA-14 and AMSU-A on board NOAA-15 to -19 have been inter-calibrated to form a fundamental climate data record. A 1D-Var method is then employed to establish the thematic climate data record of atmospheric temperature profiles that are appropriate for climate change study. Verification of the MSU/AMSU-A derived temperature profiles with collocated Global Positioning System radio occultation data confirms a reasonable good accuracy of the derived atmospheric temperature profiles in the troposphere and low stratosphere. Finally, the global climate trend of the atmospheric temperature in clear-sky conditions is deduced, showing not only a global warming in the troposphere and a cooling in the stratosphere, but also a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the low troposphere.     

IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION,MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY

The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U.S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed, in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis are needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.     

Interaction of atmospheric chemistry and climate and its impact on stratospheric ozone

The interactively coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM is employed in sensitivity calculations to investigate feedback mechanisms of dynamic, chemical, and radiative processes. Two multi-year model simulations are carried out, which represent recent atmospheric conditions. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce observed features and trends with respect to dynamics and chemistry of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In polar regions it is demonstrated that an increased persistence of the winter vortices is mainly due to enhanced greenhouse gas mixing ratios and to reduced ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. An additional sensitivity simulation is investigated, concerning a possible future development of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and climate. The model results in the Southern Hemisphere indicate that the adopted further increase of greenhouse gas mixing ratios leads to an intensified radiative cooling in the lower stratosphere. Therefore, Antarctic ozone depletion slightly increases due to a larger PSC activity, although stratospheric chlorine is reduced. Interestingly, the behavior in the Northern Hemisphere is different. During winter, an enhanced activity of planetary waves yields a more disturbed stratospheric vortex. This "dynamical heating" compensates the additional radiative cooling due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the polar region. In connection with reduced stratospheric chlorine loading, the ozone layer clearly recovers.