Transient projections of permafrost distribution in Canada during the 21st century under scenarios of climate change

Most general circulation models (GCMs) project that climate will be warmer in the 21st century, especially in high latitudes. Climate warming will induce permafrost degradation, which would have great impacts on hydrology, ecosystems and soil biogeochemistry, and could destabilize the foundations of infrastructure. In this study, we simulated transient changes of permafrost distribution in Canada in the 21st century using a process-based permafrost model driven by six GCM-generated climate scenarios. The results show that the area underlain by permafrost in Canada would be reduced by 16.0–19.7% from the 1990s to the 2090s. This estimate was smaller than equilibrium projections because the ground thermal regime was in disequilibrium at the end of the 21st century and permafrost degradation would continue. The simulation shows significant permafrost thaw from the top: On average for the area where permafrost exists in all the years during 1990–2100, active-layer thickness increased by 0.3–0.7 m (or 41–104%), the depth to permafrost table increased by 1.9–5.0 m, and the area with taliks increased exponentially. Permafrost was also thawed from the bottom in southern regions.     

Mired in the past — looking to the future: Geochemistry of peat and the analysis of past environmental changes

Peat cores from ombrotrophic bogs have been used as a valuable archive to study environmental change for over a century. Much of this focus on the peat record has been on biological proxies of environmental change, such as pollen and peat-forming macrofossils, but there is growing interest in the geochemical record to study environmental changes. Several studies of long-term peat records in Europe have reconstructed past changes in atmospheric lead pollution, for example, and the general cohesiveness of the results and their agreement with known historical trends in metal production exemplify the best potential of peat geochemistry as an environmental archive. Based on the success with lead, a current emphasis in peat reconstructions is to assess the record of past mercury deposition and results thus far show generally consistent trends, e.g., a pre-anthropogenic mercury accumulation rate of about 0.5–1.5 μg Hg m^− 2 year^− 1. Despite this general consistency there is increasing concern that there may be diagenetic effects on the quantitative record of some metals, which can be inferred based on a strong relationship between mercury and other organically bound elements and proxies for peat decomposition (C/N ratio). However, it is possible that changes in decomposition and the alteration of some metal records could provide climatic information. A few recent studies show that closer examination of the geochemical matrix, in some cases along with biological proxies, can provide valuable information on landscape changes and climate; for example, partitioning metals into different weight fractions and source regions can be applied to climate studies. The best interpretations of the peat geochemical record in the context of environmental and climate change will likely come when geochemical and biological records are considered simultaneously.     

Permafrost and climatic change in China

The permafrost area in China is about 2.15×10⁶ km², and is generally characterized by altitudinal permafrost. Permafrost in China can be divided into latitudinal and altitudinal types, the latter can be further divided into plateau and alpine permafrost. Altitudinal permafrost also can be divided into five thermal stability types. The permafrost environment has changed significantly since the Late Pleistocene. In northeastern China, the southern limit of permafrost extended to 41–42°N during the last glaciation maximum; in the Holocene megathermal, it retreated northward. The ice wedges and permafrost formed during the Late Pleistocene are still present in the northern part of the Da-Xing'anling Mountains. The inactive ice wedges at Yitulihe indicate a cooling and subsequent permafrost expansion during the Late Pleistocene. The lower limit of altitudinal permafrost in western China has elevated from 800 to 1500 m since the last glaciation maximum. Compared with that in northern Europe and North America, latitudinal permafrost in northeastern China is less sensitive to climatic warming, but altitudinal permafrost, especially permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climatic warming. Since the early 20th century, significant permafrost degradation has occurred and is occurring in most permafrost regions in China. Due to the combined influence of climatic warming and increasing anthropogenic activities, substantial retreat of permafrost is expected on the QTP and in northeastern China during the 21st century. Permafrost degradation has and will cast great influence on engineering construction, water resources and environments in the cold regions of China. The wetlands in the cold regions of China emit significant amounts of CH₄ and N₂O to the atmosphere and uptake atmospheric CO₂ at a considerable rate, which might contribute to the global atmospheric carbon budget and feedback to climatic systems. However, uncertainties about permafrost changes, rates of changes and their environmental impacts are still large and call for intensive studying.     

Land clearance and hydrological change in the Sahel: SW Niger

In the West African semiarid belt of the Sahel, for the second half of the XXth century, lasting droughts (1970s–1980s) and one of the World's highest population growths have resulted in major land cover and hydrological changes that can be quantified using aerial photographs. This paper aims to provide one of the longest combined observations of land cover and hydrological changes for semiarid areas using a time series of normalised mosaics of aerial photographs dating back from 1950, field inquiries, and updated groundwater data. The 500 km² study area in southwest Niger was chosen (i) for its rural environment representative of the rain-fed agriculture belt of the Sahel and (ii) to encompass the main hydrological study sites investigated in this region over the past two decades (Hapex-Sahel and AMMA experiments, 1990–2000s). Results have significant implications for future freshwater availability and food security in the Sahel.Between 1950 and 1992,  80% of the study area has been cleared, firstly to open new areas for agriculture and secondly for firewood supply (59% of the plateaux, 42% of the valley bottoms, and 87% of the hillslopes). Intermediate aerial photograph surveys (1960, 1975) attest an accelerated loss in the woody savannah that could not be recovered on the short term. A strong, indirect impact of land clearance is observed on the water resources. Land clearance has resulted in a modification of the soil properties and infiltration capacity and has led to an increase in Hortonian runoff collected in numerous gullies and ponds. Between 1950 and 1992, aerial photographs show a  2.5 fold increase of the drainage density with the development of large drainage systems and new ponds. Groundwater data also indicate a continuous rise in the water table, mostly noticeable since the 1980s with a mean groundwater level rise of  4 m for the 1963–2005 period (+ 15% in aquifer reserves). The relatively short  30 year time-lag between the onset of land clearance and the beginning of the water table rise is linked to the process of indirect groundwater recharge and is timed with the connectivity of the drainage network and the formation of new ponds. Finally, the sustained increase in surface runoff and groundwater recharge during the past four decades indicates that the indirect impact of land clearance on the terrestrial water balance has been stronger than that of the long-lasting Sahelian drought. As the rate of land clearance increased for the past century in semiarid Africa, its main hydrological effects may not yet be fully perceptible.     

Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China

The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951–1990 and the climate scenarios.During the period 1951–1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.     

Meltwater and the global ocean conveyor: northern versus southern connections

The sensitivity of the ocean circulation to changes in North Atlantic surface fluxes has become a major factor in explaining climate variability. The role of the Antarctic Bottom Water in modulating this variability has received much less attention, limiting the development of a complete understanding of decadal to millennial time-scale climate change. New analyses indicate that the southern deepwater source may change dramatically (e.g., experience a decrease of as much as two thirds during last 800 years). Such change can substantially alter the ocean circulation patterns of the last millennium. Additional analyses indicate that the Southern Hemisphere led the Northern Hemisphere changes in some of the glacial cycles of Pleistocene, implying a seesaw-type oscillation of the global ocean conveyor. The potential for melting of sea ice and ice sheets in the Antarctica associated with global warming can cause a further slowdown of the southern deepwater source. These results demand an assessment of the role of the Southern Ocean in driving changes of the global ocean circulation and climate. Systematic model simulation targeting the ocean circulation response to changes in surface salinity in the high latitudes of both Northern and Southern Hemispheres demonstrate that meltwater impacts in one hemisphere may lead to a strengthening of the thermohaline conveyor driven by the source in the opposite hemisphere. This, in turn, leads to significant changes in poleward heat transport. Further, meltwater events can lead to deep-sea warming and thermal expansion of abyssal water, that in turn cause a substantial sea-level change even without a major ice sheet melting.     

Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model

We use three measures of aridity, the Köppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and arid lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions.     

Potential impacts of human-induced land cover change on East Asia monsoon

As one major performance of anthropogenic activities, human-induced land use and land cover changes in East Asia have been one of the largest regions in the world. In the past 3000 years, more than 60% of the region has been affected by conversion of various categories of natural vegetation into farmland, conversion of grassland into semidesert and widespread land degradation. Such human-induced land cover changes result in significant changes of surface dynamic parameters, such as albedo, surface roughness, leaf area index and fractional vegetation coverage, etc.The results of a pair of numerical experiments in this paper have shown that by altering the complex exchanges of water and energy from surface to atmosphere, the changes in land cover have brought about significant changes to the East Asian monsoon. These include weakening of the summer monsoon and enhancement of winter monsoon over the region and a commensurate increase in anomalous northerly flow. These changes result in the reduction of all components of surface water balance such as precipitation, runoff, and soil water content. The consequent diminution of northward and inland moisture transfer may be a significant factor in explaining the decreasing of atmospheric and soil humidity and thus the trend in aridification observed in many parts of the region, particularly over Northern China during last 3000 years.The variation of East Asia monsoon presented here is the result of land cover changes only. It is very likely that the anthropogenic modification of monsoon system would have been occurred in the long history of civilization.     

Climate variability and change in the drylands of Western North America

We argue that it is important to expand the consideration of climate in the context of provision of ecosystem services in drylands. In addition to climate change, it is necessary to include climate variability on timescales relevant to human and ecological considerations, namely interannual to decadal and multidecadal. The period of global instrumental record (about a century and a half long at the very most) is neither an adequate nor an unbiased sample of the range and character of natural climate variability that might be expected with the climate system configured as it is now. We base this on evidence from W. N. America, where there has recently been a major multi-year drought, of a scale and intensity that has occurred several times in the last 2000 years, and on attempts to provide explanations of these phenomena based on physical climatology. Ensembles of runs of forced climate system models suggest the next 50 years will bring much more extensive and intense drought in the continental interior of North America. The trajectory followed by the supply of ecosystem services will be contingent not only on the genotypes available and the antecedent soil, economic and social conditions but also on climate variability and change. The critical features of climate on which patterns of plant growth and water supply depend may vary sharply during and between human generations, resulting in very different experiences and hence, expectations.     

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of these various forcings will be necessary in order to distinguish between, and to detect, the variety of natural and anthropogenic influences and on climate.     

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.     

Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century

Changes in the extent of glaciers and rates of glacier termini retreat in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo Range, the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia have been evaluated using the remote sensing techniques. Changes in the extent of 335 glaciers between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; mid-19th century), 1990 and 2003 have been estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and the LIA moraine positions on the Landsat TM and ASTER imagery for 1990 and 2003 respectively. By 2003, the glacier surface area had decreased by 19% of the LIA value, which constitutes a 76 km² reduction in glacier surface area. Mapping of 109 glaciers using the 1965 1:25,000 maps revealed that glacier surface area decreased by 12.6% of the 1965 value between 1965 and 2003. Detailed mapping of 10 glaciers using historical maps and aerial photographs from the 1943–1977 period, has enabled glacier extent variations over the 20th century to be identified with a higher temporal resolution. Glacial retreat was slow in the early 20th century but increased considerably between 1943 and 1956 and then again after 1977. The post-1990 period has been marked by the most rapid glacier retreat since the end of the LIA. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed climatic warming. The regional weather stations have revealed a strong climatic warming during the ablation season since the 1950s at a rate of 0.02–0.03 °C a^− 1. At the higher elevations in the study area represented by the Tien Shan meteorological station, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation in the 1990s enhancing glacier retreat. However, trends in precipitation in the post-1997 period cannot be evaluated due to the change in observational practices at this station. Neither station in the study area exhibits significant long-term trends in precipitation.     

Time Variation In Hydrology and Gravity

In view of the pivotal role that continental water storage plays in the Earth’s water, energy and biogeochemical cycles, the temporal and spatial variations of water storage for large areas are presently not known with satisfactory accuracy. Estimates of the seasonal storage change vary between less than 50 mm water equivalent in areas with uniform climatic conditions to 450 mm water equivalent in tropical river basins with a strong seasonality of the climate. Due to the lack of adequate ground-based measurements of water storage changes, the evapotranspiration rate, which depends on the actual climatic and environmental conditions, is only an approximation for large areas until now, or it is based on the assumption that storage changes level out for long time periods. Furthermore, the partitioning of the water storage changes among different storage components is insufficiently known for large scales. The direct measurement of water storage changes for large areas by satellite-based gravity field measurements is thus of uttermost importance in the field of hydrology in order to close the water balance at different scales in space and time, and to validate and improve the predictive capacity of large-scale hydrological models. Due to the high spatial variability of hydrological processes temporal and spatial resolutions beyond that of GRACE are essential for a spatial differentiation in evapotranspiration and water storage partitioning.     

21世纪中国大陆第一个大震活动幕的预测

基于对 2 0世纪中国大陆 7.0级以上大地震与月亮白赤交角的变化和太阳活动的研究结果 ,根据对未来 50a (年 )月亮白赤交角的值与目前太阳活动的形势 ,提出 2 1世纪中国大陆第一个大地震活动幕可能是 2 0 0 6或 2 0 0 7～ 2 0 1 5年     

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.     

A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.     

The future of space science in the 21st century

Space Science helped the start of the open space race after the launch of Sputnik-1 in 1957. Conversely, the use of space vehicles during the cold war allowed the scientists to conduct many observations and make discoveries which have dramatically changed our views of our own Solar System and of the Universe. What will be the future of this activity in the next century, with the disappearance of the cold war justification and in the context of shrinking budgets? Is there a future for space exploration? For what benefit and how will space science programmes be conducted? Who will be the main players? Are there limits to our ability to explore? The pioneers of space research in the post-Sputnik-1 era, like J-L. Steinberg, had both an easier and a more difficult time than space scientists of today. Nevertheless, space science will only survive in the next century if it succeeds in reaching the deep interest and motivation of society at large.     

The regional hydrologic impacts of global climate change: the role of climate models

The requirement to increase understanding of the complex interaction between society and the environment is well documented. Dramatic evidence of the vulnerability of anthropogenic systems to short-term weather fluctuations abounds. Taking an historical perspective provides an equally impressive picture of the potential upheaval caused by longer term climate changes. However, the past (and present) may not provide an adequate analoque for the future. The greenhouse theory of climate change suggests that the changes in climate regime to be expected from enhanced atmospheric CO₂ will be of similar magnitude to the glacial-interglacial mean temperature difference, but will occur in a fraction of the time. Consequently, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of physical climate models in determining projections of future global and regional temperature and precipitation patterns. The latter climate changes will have important implications for the distribution (in time and space) of water, a principal natural resource and basic requirement for a variety of human activities. Consequently, climate models are being applied to the question of determining the regional hydrologic response to global climate change. The latter objective is a prerequisite to assessing the likely impacts on the water resources sector. This paper reviews current progress in achieving this aim and outlines some future research directions.     

The effect of climate change on carbon in Canadian peatlands

Peatlands, which are dominant features of the Canadian landscape, cover approximately 1.136 million km², or 12% of the land area. Most of the peatlands (97%) occur in the Boreal Wetland Region (64%) and Subarctic Wetland Region (33%). Because of the large area they cover and their high organic carbon content, these peatlands contain approximately 147 Gt soil carbon, which is about 56% of the organic carbon stored in all Canadian soils.A model for estimating peatland sensitivity to climate warming was used to determine both the sensitivity ratings of various peatland areas and the associated organic carbon masses. Calculations show that approximately 60% of the total area of Canadian peatlands and 51% of the organic carbon mass in all Canadian peatlands is expected to be severely to extremely severely affected by climate change.The increase in average annual air temperature of 3–5 °C over land and 5–7 °C over the oceans predicted for northern Canada by the end of this century would result in the degradation of frozen peatlands in the Subarctic and northern Boreal wetland regions and severe drying in the southern Boreal Wetland Region. In addition, flooding of coastal peatlands is expected because of the predicted rise in sea levels. As a result of these changes, a large part of the carbon in the peatlands expected to be severely and extremely severely affected by climate change could be released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), which will further increase climate warming.