我国城市防震减灾工作特性及若干措施

城市是我国防震减灾工作的重点,建国以来我国城市防震减灾工作历经数次调整,形成了符合当前实际的工作思路.本文阐述了城市防震减灾工作的特殊性和重要性,并针对我国城市防震工作存在的一些问题,提出了若干工作建议和措施.     

基于专利角度的防震减灾领域技术研发态势分析

防震减灾事业发展需要高科技的支撑,从专利角度对防震减灾领域技术研发情况进行分析,有助于准确把握该领域技术全球发展态势。基于incoPat全球专利数据库对国际领域内防震减灾专利进行研究,揭示全球防震减灾领域技术的研究现状、研究热点及研发布局。结果显示：全球范围内对于防震减灾领域技术的研发一直在持续增加,2004年之后快速增长;中国在专利总量和增长率方面远超其他国家,美国专利质量整体最高;高价值专利主要包括振动传感器和加速度计、地震预警系统和报警器、抗震墙和抗震结构、隔震支座、电梯控制装置、地震应急指挥系统、地震应急处置和逃生装置、救灾机器人等。     

中国减轻地震灾害工作对策

本文从地震监测、科研、预报、抗震、救灾、政府和社会减灾活动、减灾宣传教育和国际交流合作8个方面系统阐述中国减轻地震灾害研究的进展和实施情况,提出了相应的减灾对策.     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。     

Closing the gaps in knowledge, policy and action to address water issues in forests

Water issues on forest lands involve many human elements and needs that are not addressed by advanced physical and biological research and technology. Major gaps in our knowledge of important patterns of climate, soils, and terrain can be filled by relatively basic data collection and monitoring programs. Careful analysis of existing data and field experience also can reveal appropriate directions for management. A focus on problem-solving can direct research more effectively towards the resolution of key issues. Despite their impact, resource policies have widely varying scientific foundations. Policy-makers need sound processes for policy development, including timely technical input that is clear, objective, and related to socio-economic considerations. Resource polices should be consistent and include not only regulation, but also research, education, assistance, and incentives. Knowledge and sound policies still may not produce the desired on-the-ground actions, however, because of variable awareness, understanding, skill, or supervision in the field. Education and training programs are important not only for resource technicians, but also for contractors, operators, and other forest workers. Good planning, communication, and field coordination further insure that problems are avoided and new opportunities for effective actions are identified.     

雄安新区中小学生防震减灾科普知识现状调查研究

为了解雄安新区防震减灾科普教育在中小学校园内开展情况及学生对防震减灾知识的认知和需求,课题组2020年年底在雄安新区3县选取部分中小学开展问卷调查.调查表明,雄安新区中小学生对防震减灾知识关注度较高且参加意愿较强,对地震应急避险知识认知水平较高,在地震预警常识、地震谣言辨别方面处于中等偏上水平,但震后救援、自救互救认知...     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.     

重庆市水库诱发地震及其防震减灾工作

长江三峡蓄水和其它水库引起的水库诱发地震正成为重庆市震情的突出特色。本文介绍了重庆市在争取各级政府和社会支持,从基础研究、监测台网建设、国内外合作等方面积极开展水库诱发地震的监测及其相关防震减灾工作的措施。     

执法为民依法治"震"

通过对防震减灾法在实施过程中存在不善于执法和执法不严等问题的分析,提出加强地震行政执法,依法保护全社会各行各业建设工程必须达到抗震设防要求,保证防震减灾工作有序地进行,切实收到减灾成效。笔者拟从端正执法思想,规范执法行为,强化执法监督三方面综述加强地震行政执法力度对防震减灾、造福民众的重要意义。     

地震预测研究的发展展望

简要介绍了主要地震研究国家在地震观测中高新技术的应用和一系列重大地球科学项目的实施情况及其对地震成因、强震机理、地震预测研究的意义,同时对地震观测研究的基本途径和发展方向也进行了阐述。     

地震预报在政府和社会防震减灾工作中的重要意义

阐述了地震预报在政府和社会防震减灾工作中的重要意义，并针对当前地震预报中存在的问题，提出了需要采取的措施和对策。     

农村住房抗震设防初探

通过对太原盆地部分市县及农村住房进行调查统计,认为农村居民防震减灾意识淡薄,农村住房普遍不设防是防震减灾工作的薄弱环节之一,分析了农村居民防震减灾意识淡薄的主要原因及农村住房在抗震设防方面存在的主要问题,提出了提高农村住房抗震能力的措施。     

Earthquake engineering research needs in light of lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Earthquake engineering research and development have received much attention since the first half of the twentieth century. This valuable research presented a huge step forward in understanding earthquake hazard mitigation,which resulted in appreciable reduction of the effects of past earthquakes. Nevertheless,the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami resulted in major damage. This paper presents the timeline of earthquake mitigation and recovery,as seen by the authors. Possible research directions where the authors think that many open questions still remain are identified. These are primarily based on the important lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.     

做好基层防震减灾宣传工作的几点对策

当前，城市防震减灾宣传工作卓有成效，但在存在诸多困难的广大基层，特别是农村地区的防震减灾宣传工作还有很多不尽人意的地方。作者在借鉴一些基层地震部门工作经验的基础上，结合自身工作实际总结出了做好基层防震减灾宣传工作的几点对策。     

唐山市公众防震减灾意识社会调查及分析

文章简要介绍了通过采用抽样调查的方式,对唐山市的驻唐院校、国营企业、驻唐部队和党政机关等开展公众防震减灾意识问卷调查的结果,以进一步了解公众对待防震减灾事业的态度,及其掌握防震减灾知识的渠道和程度,明确其防震减灾意识,为防震减灾工作的不断开展提供依据和指导。     

防震减灾公益广告宣传模式及思考

公益广告有效地引导了公益事业的发展,发挥了积极作用,在社会上引起了极大的反响,得到了全社会的支持和参与。但防震减灾公益广告宣传模式研究相对缺失,本文根据防震减灾公益广告的发展现状,调查分析了防震减灾公益广告现阶段存在的问题,给出了防震减灾公益广告宣传模式和对策建议。     

城市抗震防灾规划的研究与展望

抗震防灾规划是提高城镇综合抗震能力的有效措施之一,与城市总体规划一并实施.重点回顾了我国抗震防灾规划工作的发展历程,同时对美国、日本在建立防灾规划方面的情况也进行了介绍.通过编制城市的抗震防灾规划,加强城市的综合抗震防灾能力,在丽江地震中被证明是一个有效的手段.综述了在这个方面的发展与变化,并就未来的可能的发展方向作了总结与展望,以期国内外同仁进一步研究.     

震害预测方法及其相关程序

地震灾害的损失预测是进行城市减灾决策的依据，为此发展了许多进行震害预测的方法及相应的程序。主要介绍目前国内外在这方面的主要预测方法以及较为成熟的应用程序，力图对现有的方法进行一个概括和分析。同时针对目前的技术发展方向和我国的国情，提出了我国发展震害预测软件中应注意的问题。