Public attitudes and policies toward mineral resources on the brink of the 21st century

In this issue, we feature an article by W. David Menzie, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Dr. Menzie is a leading expert on quantitative mineral-resource assessment. He has made significant contributions to quantitative assessment methodologies through the development of spatial mineral deposit density models, grade and tonnage models, and the design of metrics for describing mineral deposit occurrences. He has also studied the geology and mineral resources of the Circle quadrangle, Alaska. Dr. Menzie earned a B.S. degree in geology from Dickinson College, an M.S. in geology, an M.A. in statistics, and a Ph.D. in Geology from the Pennsylvania State University.     

21世纪人地关系研究前瞻

人地关系包括人对自然的依赖性和人的能动地位 ,人与自然关系的内涵随着人类社会的发展而发生变化。人地关系研究是近代地理学发展的基础 ,地理学中流行的环境决定论、可能论、文化景观学和人类生态学等都是聚焦于人地关系研究的不同学派。地球系统科学领域的研究重心是揭示人与自然的相互作用及所应采取的对策。信息时代人地关系的特征与工业时代有较大差别。人与自然的作用方式和强度将有显著不同 ,人类将全面系统地深化对自然的认识 ,人类活动空间将发生巨大变化 ,时空观念正在发生转变。知识与科技的作用 ,正成为社会经济发展的主要驱动力。由于地球的整体性和地球各圈层的相互作用 ,许多全球环境问题成为世界各国和社会公众关切的热点。人地关系研究的重要前沿领域包括 :全球环境变化及其区域响应 ,区域可持续发展及人地关系机理调控 ,社会生态与环境伦理研究与体系构建     

二十一世纪林业可持续经营面临的挑战

<正> 目前,人们对于森林和森林经营给予了前所未有的关注。尤其是1992年环发大会(UNCED)以来,林业界和其它有关人士对可持续森林经营的清楚的定义和实施进行了许多思考。国际机构,包括森林政府间论坛(IFF),联合国森林论坛(UNFF)和为数众多     

Challenges of calculating dunefield mobility over the 21st century

Attention has been directed towards both the impacts of future climate change on environmental systems and dunefield activity in the past, but there has been relatively little consideration of potential dune mobility in a future and possibly warmer world. This paper considers the use and limitations of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) (Hadcm3, Hadcm2, CSIRO-mk2b and CGCM1), in combination with simple dune mobility indices to predict the activity of the Kalahari dunefield. It is clear that uncertainties surround GCM resolution and accuracy, mobility index robustness for the calculation of intra-annual dune mobility and data collection for mobility index calibration. Macro-scale studies that look at large areas of the world over long time scales are well suited to GCM and mobility index use, but dune mobility can be variable within a dunefield, and it is the extreme sand transporting events, occurring at high temporal resolutions, that are the most important for short term studies. To investigate intra-annual changes in dune mobility over a specific dunefield techniques such as downscaling, weather generators and probability curve fitting can help provide climate predictions for smaller areas over shorter time frames. However, these methods introduce uncertainty of their own, and they often rely on the accuracy of original GCM predictions or the climate parameter relationships observed at present. Analysis of intra-annual changes also requires mobility indices that can model monthly mobility patterns well, although existing indices have only been used for calculating annual dune mobility potential. When they are used for intra-annual predictions, the lack of lag response between precipitation decreases and the assumed vegetation dieback leads to an exaggerated amplitude pattern of dune mobility throughout the year. Calibration of dune mobility indices to dune mobility observed on the ground is therefore important but is hampered by a lack of observed measurements for individual months. Solutions are available to overcome some of the outlined problems, but they can provide their own set of uncertainties, which combine to further reduce the confidence given to future dune mobility predictions.     

21世纪以来俄罗斯人口增长与空间分布格局变化

在“一带一路”与“中蒙俄经济走廊”倡议的背景下,利用人口增减变化率、人口重心、人口密度变化率、人口地理集中度、人口商度等研究21世纪以来俄罗斯的人口增长与空间分布格局变化。结果表明：（1）21世纪以来,俄罗斯人口经历了先降后增的变化过程;中央区的人口显著上升,伏尔加、西伯利亚与远东区均呈下降趋势;莫斯科、圣彼得堡、乌拉尔区、北高加索区南端的联邦主体人口快速增加,西伯利亚区多数联邦主体人口缓慢增加,远东东部、莫斯科外围地域、伏尔加区多数联邦主体的人口缓慢减少,西北区北端联邦主体的人口急剧减少。（2）俄人口空间分布格局变化主要受地区间人口迁移流动的影响。空间上,俄人口重心不断朝西北向迁移,莫斯科市与圣彼得堡市的人口密度快速增加,远东与东西伯利亚区的人口密度缓慢降低,强化了俄人口分界线——“圣彼得堡-图瓦线”。以“圣图线”为界,俄“西密东疏”“欧洲密、亚洲疏”的格局短期不会改变,整体呈“一横、四纵、两团”及若干区域人口集团的空间结构。     

21世纪中国地理学发展的若干思考

20世纪我国现代地理学的发展取得了辉煌成就,同时也面临着许多挑战和机遇。基于地球系统科学的最新研究成果与发展态势,结合我国地理学发展的自身特点及国家需求,本文从理论研究、方法论、学科建设、能力建设等方面,对21世纪我国地理学发展的若干问题进行了思考和探索。     

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000–2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to western China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China’s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that further studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China’s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.     

21世纪中国主要粮食产区的空间格局特征

Grain production is an important issue for the national economy and the livelihood of the Chinese people. It serves as the foundation of national development and social stability. China is a major grain producer as well as a major grain consumer. The grai…     

Regional container transportation system for Northeast Asia economic cooperation in the 21st century

1 Transportation and Regional Economic CooperationInternational economic cooperation is influenced not only by trade policy and industrial complementarity, but also by the progress of transportation technology and the development of modern infrastructure. The impulsion of international economic cooperation is how to make countries or enterprises to obtain best benefit. There are four basic factors that influence international economic cooperation: complementarity of industries, market conditi…     

21世纪中国历史地理学发展的思考

本文在回顾中国历史与近 5 0年来取得的巨大成就的基础上 ,结合当今地球系统科学、地理科学的发展趋势以及国际全球变化与可持续发展研究的最新动向 ,提出了新世纪中国历史地理学研究应以收集、发掘人类文明演进的地理证据 ,分析历史上人地交互作用的时空特征为核心 ,以探寻当今地理学历史渊源人类适应环境变化模式的历史证据为目标 ,以文献分析、野外调查、考古发掘等传统方法与现代实验技术、空间信息技术的集成为手段 ,以编制5 0 0 0年来华夏故土嬗变与文明演进的历史图谱为主要平台的发展新思路 ,并认为中国历史地理学在国际全球变化与可持续发展研究中可以做出具有重大显示度的贡献     

IPCC-AR4模式对中国21世纪气候变化的情景预估

利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告提供的13个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果,分析了不同情景下(高排放SRES A2、中等排放A1B、低排放B1)中国区域未来100年的气候变化。结果表明,21世纪中国气候预估显著变暖、变湿,世纪末变暖范围在1.6℃~5℃之间,年降水量增加1.5%~20%。在A2、A1B和B1情景下,21世纪末期增暖幅度依次为5.3℃、4.3℃和2.8℃,平均3.5℃,年降水量预估增加依次为11%、9.6%和6.4%,平均达7.5%。气温和降水变化的地理分布显示:北方增温幅度大于南方,降水的增加也主要集中在北方。冬季变暖最明显,降水则在冬、春季增加较显著。模式预估结果的不确定性分析表明,新一代全球系统模式对21世纪中国气候变化预估的可靠性得到了提高。     

构筑唐山21世纪交通体系与特色经济格局

唐山是全国运输网的枢纽地区之一和全国国土重点开发区的重要组成部分,文中通过对唐山现有交通基础设施的总体状况进行概括和评价,指出了其对未来经济发展所构成的制约和潜在的优势;从区位影响、经济布局、城镇体系和产业结构调整等方面,论述了大交通体系对唐山特色经济格局形成的战略影响。根据唐山区位优势、资源分布特点,面对生产要素配置市场化、经济发展区域化和个性化的大趋势,对构筑唐山交通体系提出了相应的建设性意见与对策。     

新时期我国中心城市人口城镇化特征及其空间格局

在新一轮城镇化进程中,以人力资本为核心的创新经济逐步成为推动经济增长的动力引擎,省域中心城市作为人口聚集地的功能日益凸显。人口流动倾向影响着不同规模和行政等级城市之间的城镇体系重构,选取各个省域典型城市作为重点分析对象,通过我国城市人口最新数据统计测算,揭示出近期全国城镇化发展态势与大都市区域格局变化特征。结果发现,我国人口城镇化发展态势逐渐趋于平稳,不同地区、不同规模城市对人口的吸纳能力仍存在显著差异,各类直辖市、省会城市、副省级城市在人口集聚方面表现突出,传统港口城市、工业城市、省域副中心城市的人口吸引力逐步趋弱。其中,一级城市人口吸纳能力超强,二级城市成为人口重要集聚地,三级城市人口增速趋缓,四级城市人口吸引力平稳;可将之划分为“高/低规模”“高/低增长”四种不同组合类型。同时,城市人口的增长变化和人力资本竞争,显著影响了城市区域经济发展,特别是中西部地区省域中心城市实力日益增强,人口增长强劲,进而改变了传统东中西区域经济显著分异的格局,省会城市首位度表现出“高/低位序”“高/低集中”四种不同组合分布特征,且集中于“高位序、高集中”和“低位序、低集中”两种类型,分化格局相对明显。伴随着中国大都市的不断发育成熟,其逐步成为新时代创新经济和人口集聚的引领者。     

21世纪初中国海岸带土地利用空间格局特征

基于GIS空间分析技术、条带分割法以及优势度和土地利用程度综合指数,分析了21世纪我国海岸带区域（海岸线向陆30km范围）土地利用的数量、结构、空间格局和集约化特征。研究表明：21世纪我国海岸带土地利用以耕地、林地和建设用地为主。距海远近不同,土地利用的结构特征和空间格局差异显著,水域和建设用地的向海特征最为显著,其次...     

日本关西经济圈21世纪产业发展构图及其启示

列居日本三大都市圈第二 关西经济圈,进入八十年代以后,其在日本全国的相对经济地位呈持续下降之势。为了扭转这一局面,关西经济圈在都市功能定位、产业发展经及基础设施配套建设等方面也提出了一系列跨世纪发展的规划构思,其中也不乏可资借鉴之处,本文试就此作一概要分析。     

21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the Grain for Green policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of Western Development, Revitalization of Northeast, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the “Grain for Green” policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of “Western Development”, “Revitalization of Northeast”, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

21世纪初长江干流地区经济持续发展的战略思考

长期以来长江干流地区始终承担着全国工业化主体发动机的作用。随着国家工业化及城市化进程的加快,21世纪初长江干流地区的这种作用还将得到明显增强。作为全国人地关系最为紧张的地区之一,长江干流地区需从自身特点出发,合理调整地区产业结构和布局方向,以期真正担负起国家和民族发展所赋予的历史使命。     

Trend of snow cover fraction over East Asia in the 21st century under different scenarios

Using the snow cover fraction (SNC) output from eight WCRP CMIP3 climate models under SRES A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the future trend of SNC over East Asia is analyzed. Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia, with the fastest decrease in spring, then winter and autumn, and the slowest in summer. In spring and winter the SNC decreases faster in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia, while in autumn there is little difference between them. Among the various scenarios, SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend, then A1B, and B1 has the smallest trend. The decrease in SNC is mainly caused by the changes in surface air temperature and snowfall, which contribute differently to the SNC trends in different regions and seasons.