介质黏滞性质对余震活动影响的数值模拟

假定主震破裂面上残余凹凸体的破裂导致余震,残余凹凸体尺度符合分形分布,在破裂面上随机分布,残余凹凸体破裂/失稳强度符合对数正态分布;以岩石圈下部粘弹介质震后应力松弛作为导致残余凹凸体破裂的动力输入,加载应力按负指数形式衰减;以库仑破裂准则作为失稳判据,考虑残余凹凸体破裂对附近区域的应力加载,在不同条件下模拟生成包含时、空、强三要素的人工"余震"序列。通过G-R关系及修改的大森公式,检测模拟输出与实际余震活动统计特征的吻合程度,以此作为进一步调整模型参数的依据。在此基础上重点讨论介质黏滞性质对余震活动的影响。结果显示:表征岩石物理特性的黏滞系数对余震活动持续时间、衰减快慢起重要的控制作用,黏滞系数与衰减系数之间显示负指数的相关关系。余震序列G-R关系与黏滞系数关系不大,主要受控于残余凹凸体的尺度分布,即与构造不均匀性关系更为密切。     

黏弹应力松弛及余滑作用下余震衰减主要影响因素的数值模拟研究

正震后趋势判定和强余震预测是震后抢险救灾、次生灾害预防和灾后重建过程中政府和社会公众最为关心的问题之一,其科学基础是对地震序列统计特征及余震活动机理的深入了解和认识。本论文考虑主震破裂面不均匀性、应力加载及余震间应力相互作用,构建表征余震活动过程的物理概念模型,进而通过数值模拟方法,模拟复杂的余震活动过程。通过G-R关系及修改     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 M s7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC). As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p (p ~ 1) value as early aftershock deficiency (EAD), as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks’ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

Statistical properties of aftershock rate decay: Implications for the assessment of continuing activity

Aftershock rates seem to follow a power law decay, but the assessment of the aftershock frequency immediately after an earthquake, as well as during the evolution of a seismic excitation remains a demand for the imminent seismic hazard. The purpose of this work is to study the temporal distribution of triggered earthquakes in short time scales following a strong event, and thus a multiple seismic sequence was chosen for this purpose. Statistical models are applied to the 1981 Corinth Gulf sequence, comprising three strong (M = 6.7, M = 6.5, and M = 6.3) events between 24 February and 4 March. The non-homogeneous Poisson process outperforms the simple Poisson process in order to model the aftershock sequence, whereas the Weibull process is more appropriate to capture the features of the short-term behavior, but not the most proper for describing the seismicity in long term. The aftershock data defines a smooth curve of the declining rate and a long-tail theoretical model is more appropriate to fit the data than a rapidly declining exponential function, as supported by the quantitative results derived from the survival function. An autoregressive model is also applied to the seismic sequence, shedding more light on the stationarity of the time series.     

水合物赋存形式对石英砂电性特征影响的数值模拟研究

天然气水合物储层精确评价关系到储层的生产与开发过程.由于储层微观结构具有非均质性, 且水合物合成分解过程中分布形式复杂, 水合物储层物性变化规律尚不明晰, 从而难以对储层水合物饱和度进行准确预测.为明确水合物赋存模式对电性特征的影响规律, 本文基于石英砂样品采用随机模拟的方法实现了颗粒包裹型、孔隙填充型和团簇状分布三类赋存模式的水合物数字岩心构建, 并进一步提取孔径分布分析不同水合物分布模式下的微观结构变化特征, 利用有限元方法对含水合物数字岩心进行电性模拟, 结合阿尔奇公式得到适用于含水合物石英砂介质的经验参数取值, 并采用实验室内水合物合成实验电阻率测量数据与实际储层电阻率测井数据对比验证了阿尔奇经验参数取值的正确性及有效性.结果表明, 随着水合物饱和度逐渐增加, 在相同水合物饱和度下, 颗粒包裹型生长引起的微观结构变化对电传导过程的影响最为显著; 孔隙填充型水合物生长引起的孔隙结构变化对电传导过程影响最小; 不同水合物赋存形式下, 沉积物孔径分布变化规律从微观角度解释了三类分布模式的电性差异.研究结果有助于研究储层内含水合物沉积物合成分解过程中的电性特征演化规律.

     

台湾地震对华南及华东地区应力场影响的数值模拟研究

利用有限元方法, 研究了台湾地震发生所产生的应力变化对华东南地区应力场调整的影响, 给出了这些地区地震发生后所产生的扰动应力场分布特征, 解释了台湾地震活动与大陆地震活动同步的问题。 研究结果认为, 台湾东部地震带地震发生所产生的应力扰动主要影响福建至广东和广西沿海地区的应力场; 如果地震发生在台湾东南角, 其扰动应力会影响到华东沿海地区; 台湾北部地震带地震发生所产生的扰动应力场除影响福建至广东沿海外, 还会影响到华东沿海地区。     

对汶川地震余震序列中最大余震事件的讨论

本文针对2008年5月12日四川汶川M_W7.9地震后的余震目录,采用2004年Shcherbakov和Turcotte提出的最大余震震级推断法,给出了最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,采用现有的余震数据,在大震级区间可能存在一定数量的余震缺失,这造成了余震数据与Gutenberg-Richter定律曲线在大震级区间的差异,导致推断的最大余震震级与使用目录中的最大余震震级存在明显差异。利用震级与断层长度或地表破裂长度之间的经验关系可以看出,由灌县—江油断裂的破裂尺度得到的震级与推断最大余震震级基本一致。根据前人给出的断层摩擦失稳时间模型和Brune近断层质点运动模型,本文进一步探讨了汶川地震北川—映秀断裂对灌县—江油断裂的触发作用,认为北川—映秀断裂破裂所辐射出的S波可以在短时间内使得灌县—江油断裂发生失稳,进而产生宏观破裂并形成地震,因此由灌县—江油断裂破裂形成的地震可能为汶川地震的最大余震。      

青藏高原对东亚夏季风影响的数值模拟

本文基于大气环流模式CAM,对青藏高原大地形进行简单处理并积分15年,在月和候时间尺度上对比分析了东亚夏季风对高原的响应特征.模式模拟结果表明:高原的隆升加强偏北风,使热带季风爆发之前华南及长江流域的降水加强,并通过对高层大气的显著加热作用,强化了东亚地区上层大气的南北热力差异,使得东亚夏季风加强.在西南风引导下,暖湿气流北上并使长江及江淮流域梅雨期提前,雨量加大且持续时间更长,进而使太平洋副热带高压位置偏西,并改变了东部沿海地区的降雨分布,使其呈现出旱涝相间分布的状况.自7月上旬,高原的存在反而减弱了北方雨季的降雨强度,但是延长了北方降雨期.同时由于降雨释放潜热减少与偏南风加强的作用相互消减,使得337.5假相当位温线到达最北时的位置变化不大.     

偶极接地线对地电阻率影响的数值模拟

针对我国地震监测预报中地电阻率定点连续观测中存在的偶极接地线的干扰问题, 本文将台站区域地层简化为3层均匀介质模型, 将接地线等效为偶极接地的电阻体, 建立了接地线干扰地电阻率观测的耦合物理模型. 通过有限元分析软件ANSYS模拟分析不同电性断面情况下接地线对地电阻率观测的影响, 同时分析这种干扰的产生机理, 并结合实际观测中存在的干扰问题作了对比验证分析. 结果表明: ① 接地线使得供电电极产生的地下对称性电场分布发生局部调整, 从而影响地电阻率观测; ② 接地线对地电阻率观测的影响主要取决于线缆的位置及方位角的大小; ③ 适当增大电极埋深可以减小其对地电阻率观测的影响; ④ 电性结构的差异性决定干扰变化幅度的大小. 本文结果对相关台站地电阻率观测异常分析落实及干扰源避让和观测系统改造具有参考意义.      

不同初始扰动对电离层扩展F影响的数值模拟

重力波、中性风场、电场是激发电离层扩展F的主要影响因子,本文基于中低纬电离层扩展F发展的物理模型,通过电场强度、背景风场对扩展F影响作用的分析和经验对比,首先验证了模型的有效性,后借助该模型数值模拟了给定背景环境下三种尺度初始电子密度扰动条件下扩展F的发展情况,同时研究了利用化学物质释放实现一定尺度扰动,进而激发扩展F的过程.结果表明,较强的背景电场、东向风场有利于扩展F的形成和抬升,与经验结论相吻合;电离层从被作用初始扰动到激发扩展F的过程中存在拐点效应,拐点之后扩展F被激发形成并且抬升迅速,同时短波长扰动相对于长波长扰动更有利于扩展F的激发和发展;化学物质H₂O释放通过耗散电子密度,形成了一定尺度扰动并诱发了扩展F的形成,该方法可作为一种人工激发扩展F的探索手段.

     

Numerical study on factors that influence the in‐plane drift capacity of unreinforced masonry walls

Displacement‐based assessment procedures require as input reliable estimates of the deformation capacity of all structural elements. For unreinforced masonry (URM) walls, current design codes specify the in‐plane deformation capacity as empirical equations of interstory drift. National codes differ with regard to the parameters that are considered in these empirical drift capacity equations, but the inhomogeneity of datasets on URM wall tests renders it difficult to validate the hypotheses with the currently available experimental data. This paper contributes to the future development of such empirical relationships by investigating the sensitivity of the drift capacity to the shear span, the aspect ratio, the axial load ratio, and the size of the wall. For this purpose, finite element models of URM walls are developed in Abaqus/Explicit and validated against a set of experimental results. The results show that the axial load ratio, the shear span, and the wall size are among the factors that influence the drift capacity the most. Empirical equations are mainly derived from test results on small walls, and the numerical results suggest that this can lead to a significant overestimation of the drift capacity for larger walls.