前期土壤湿度、海表面温度对中国夏季极端气温的预测能力评估

基于中国587站日最高、最低气温观测资料、月平均的ERA_interim土壤湿度（Soil Moisture,SM）再分析资料及扩展重建的海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）资料（ERSST）,对极端气温指数进行了定义,利用变形的典型相关分析和集合典型相关分析方法（Ensemble Canonical Correlation,ECC）,分析了1979-2009年我国夏季极端气温与前期（春、前冬）SM、SST间的线性联系,建立了中国夏季极端气温预测模型,并对独立样本检验的效果进行了评估。结果表明：1）与中国夏季极端气温联系密切的前期SST异常的空间分布为类PDO（Pacific Decadal Oscillation）型,前期土壤湿度异常的区域为华南、青藏高原、东北和西北地区。2）交叉检验结果表明基于前冬预测因子的极端气温预测模型技巧高于春季,基于SM的极端气温预测模型技巧高于SST。3）独立样本检验表明基于前期SM、SST的ECC模型对中国东部夏季极端气温有一定的预测能力。因此,可以在夏季极端气温的预测业务中考虑前期SM、SST的影响。     

中国东部季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系

本文对中国异常季风降水与太平洋海表温度距平之间的关系进行了研究,特别注意到1951—1975年夏季北半球月平均年际变化. 赤道东太平洋海温距平经验正交函数(EOF)第一特征向量的时间序列与长江流域季风降水及太平洋副高指数之间的相互关系存在着相当明确的遥相关,发现长江流域旱(涝)与赤道东太平洋暖(冷)、西太平洋冷(暖)以及太平洋海温距平的二种行星型相符合.存在两种异常季风环流型,其一种型式相似于Horel和Wallace1982年提出的赤道增暖事件冬季的波列,另一种型式在相同位置其距平中心符号相反,只是强度较前一种情况弱. 东太平洋海温异常改变着西太平洋副高的强度及位置,从而影响印度尼西亚地区的跨赤道气流和中国东部低层的东南季风及长江流域的降水. 在赤道中太平洋和西太平洋(或东亚)之间表面温度对比的基础上,提出了三维行星对流环流,并以此来解释异常的季风环流.     

淮河流域汛期暴雨与西太平洋海温关系

利用淮河流域172测站1960—2009年逐日气象资料和全球海温资料,通过对淮河流域汛期暴雨与前期西太平洋海温的相关分析来研究海温的变化对淮河流域汛期暴雨的影响。选取西太平洋海域（158°～170°E,8°～14°N）作为关键海区,前一年5—6月作为关键时段,通过分析发现海温偏低（高）年,淮河流域的绝大部分地区的暴雨量减少（增加）,淮河流域东北部呈现与其他地区反相的变化特征;在暴雨偏多（少）年,对应的前一年5—6月关键海区正好是海温偏高（低）。正是由于西太平洋关键海区持续的海温异常引起了次年汛期大气环流的异常,导致了淮河流域汛期暴雨的异常,这正是海温与暴雨具有很好相关的内在原因。     

A comparison of SSM/I and TOVS column water vapor data over the global oceans

Summary This paper presents a comparison of column water vapor (CWV) information derived from both infrared measurements as part of the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) in an attempt to assess the relative merits of each kind of data. From the analyses presented in this paper, it appears that both types of satellite data closely reproduce the bulk climatological relationships introduced in earlier studies using different data. This includes both the bulk relationship between CWV and the sea surface temperature and the annual variation of CWV over the world's oceans. The TOVS water vapor data tends to be systematically smaller than the SSM/I data and when averaged over the ocean covered regions of the globe this difference is between 2–3 kgm^–2. Using a cloud liquid water threshold technique to establish clear sky values of SSM/I water vapor, we conclude that the differences between TOVS and SSM/I are largely a result of the clear sky bias in TOVS sampling except in the subsidence regions of the subtropics. The clear sky bias is considerably smaller than previously reported and we attribute this improvement to the new physical retrieval scheme implemented by NOAA NESDIS. While there is considerable agreement between the two types of satellite data, there are also important differences. In regions where there is drying associated with large scale subsidence of the atmosphere, the TOVS CWV's are too moist relative to both radiosonde and SSM/I data and this difference may exceed 10 kgm^–2. The explanation for this difference lies in the limitations of infrared radiative transfer. By contrast, in regions of deep convection, such as in the ITCZ, TOVS CWV is systematically lower than the SSM/I CWV. Both TOVS and SSM/I data demonstrate similar kinds of gross effects of large scale circulation on the water vapor except in these subsidence regions where TOVS data leads to an under-prediction of the effects of subsidence drying.With 11 Figures     

秋季大气质量海陆间迁移与南北涛动年际变化不同位相配置及其对中国气温异常的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,通过构建秋季欧亚大陆-太平洋区域的大气质量海陆间迁移(MAMLO)指数和大气质量南北涛动(IHO)指数,对大气质量海陆间迁移和南北涛动的不同位相配置下环流特征及其对中国秋季气温的影响进行了研究。结果表明,大气质量海陆间迁移与南北涛动指数相关系数仅为-0.06,二者在统计学意义上相互独立。二者存在4种位相配置类型,即大气质量海陆间迁移和南北涛动均为正位相(第Ⅰ类配置);大气质量海陆间迁移和南北涛动均为负位相(第Ⅱ类配置);大气质量海陆间迁移为正位相而南北涛动为负位相(第Ⅲ类配置);大气质量海陆间迁移为负位相而南北涛动为正位相(第Ⅳ类配置)。大气质量海陆间迁移和南北涛动呈现不同位相配置类型时,大气质量的重新分布造成了不同的地表气压场分布并显著地影响到了中国北方地区秋季气温异常分布。当二者为第Ⅰ类配置时,南北涛动削弱北太平洋地区大气质量的负异常,减弱了该区域的异常低压,增强欧亚地区大气质量正异常并加强了欧亚地区的地面高压环流,共同造成中国秋季气温异常成东西反位相型分布,东部暖而西部冷;当二者为第Ⅱ类配置时,南北涛动削弱欧亚大陆大气质量的正异常,增强北太平洋地区大气质量负异常。此时大气质量海陆间迁移和南北涛动通过影响地表风场使得气温异常成全国一致型分布,全区偏暖;而第Ⅲ类配置与第Ⅰ类配置对气温的影响类似,但为东部冷而西部暖,第Ⅳ类配置与第Ⅱ类配置的影响类似。这些表明大气质量海陆间迁移对秋季欧亚地区气温异常起到主要作用,而南北涛动则在大气质量海陆间迁移影响中国北方气温异常分布中起到干扰作用。这些结果对深刻认识秋季大气环流变化机理及中国北方乃至欧亚地区秋季气温异常具有重要意义。     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.     

Turbulence spectra of CO2, water vapor,temperature and wind velocity fluctuations over a crop surface

A prototype rapid-response CO₂ sensor was used in conjunction with a Lyman-alpha hygrometer, fine-wire thermocouples and a three-dimensional drag anemometer to measure CO₂, humidity, temperature and wind velocity fluctuations. Measurements were made over a soybean crop grown on relatively flat terrain near Mead, Nebraska.Temperature, humidity and CO₂ spectra measured under near neutral conditions were most similar in shape while longitudinal velocity (U) spectra appeared to be somewhat broader. Peaks occurred around f = 0.02 to 0.06 (where f is the non-dimensional frequency) in all spectra except for vertical velocity which had a peak near f = 0.5. As thermal stability changed from neutral to stable, spectra exhibited lower peaks, were narrower in shape and were shifted towards higher frequencies. Opposite behavior was observed with increasing instability.Cospectra for momentum, heat, water vapor and CO₂ measured during neutral conditions had similar peak frequencies (near f = 0.15). Among the cospectra studied, CO₂ and water vapor cospectra had the greatest similarity in shape.Published as Paper No. 7481, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003 and Regional Research Project 11-33.Post-doctoral Research Associate and Professor, respectively, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728.     

Observed dependence of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect on sea surface temperature: comparison with climate warming experiments

This study presents a comparison of the water vapor and clear-sky greenhouse effect dependence on sea surface temperature for climate variations of different types. Firstly, coincident satellite observations and meteorological analyses are used to examine seasonal and interannual variations and to evaluate the performance of a general circulation model. Then, this model is used to compare the results inferred from the analysis of observed climate variability with those derived from global climate warming experiments. One part of the coupling between the surface temperature, the water vapor and the clear-sky greenhouse effect is explained by the dependence of the saturation water vapor pressure on the atmospheric temperature. However, the analysis of observed and simulated fields shows that the coupling is very different according to the type of region under consideration and the type of climate forcing that is applied to the Earth-atmosphere system. This difference, due to the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, is analyzed in detail by considering the temperature lapse rate and the vertical profile of relative humidity. Our results suggest that extrapolating the feedbacks inferred from seasonal and short-term interannual climate variability to longer-term climate changes requires great caution. It is argued that our confidence in climate models' predictions would be increased significantly if the basic physical processes that govern the variability of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, and its relation to the large-scale circulation, were better understood and simulated. For this purpose, combined observational and numerical studies focusing on physical processes are needed.     

中国冬季暖夜频率变化特征及其与海温的关系

采用排除台站迁移对逐日资料均一性影响的中国201个台站1960—2009年冬季逐日最低气温资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析的月平均500 h Pa位势高度场资料,及由NOAA重构的海温场资料,对中国冬季暖夜频率(frequence of warm winter night,FWWN)的时空变化特征及暖夜频率与全球海温的关系进行了分析。结果表明:近50 a中国冬季暖夜频率显著增加,并于1988年前后发生突变;冬季暖夜频率的变化幅度及趋势均是在西北地区东部最大,西南地区最小;中国冬季暖夜频率可以分为5个各自变化特征比较一致的区域;赤道印度洋到赤道西太平洋海区、黑潮区、北大西洋海区及南太平洋海区的海温指数均与中国冬季暖夜频率在全国大部分地区呈显著正相关;4个海区海温指数的异常年对应的大气环流场背景均能反映出它们分别与中国冬季暖夜频率呈正相关的事实。     

On the relationship between the 10.7 cm solar flux,surface pressure and air temperature over Greece

Summary The behaviour of the 10.7 cm solar flux, surface air temperature and sea surface pressure are discussed on the basis of the 11-year solar cycle and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) over Greece. In this respect a strong negative correlation was identified between the 11-year solar cycle and the sea surface pressure during the winter west phase years of the QBO, while a similar correlation was found between the sea surface pressure differences estimated between stations located in northern and southern regions of Greece, and the 11-year solar cycle. On the contrary, for the same QBO period, a strong positive correlation was observed between the 11-year cycle and the surface air temperature in Greece in agreement with recently published results. Considering the east phase QBO years, no correlation was identified between the 10.7 cm solar flux and the sea surface pressure and surface air temperature over Greece.With 7 Figures     

Cause-effect relationships between sea surface temperature, precipitation and sea level along the Bangladesh coast

Summary  The Bangladesh coast, which lies on the confluence of three mighty rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna, with the Himalayas to the north and the Bay of Bengal to the south, is an ideal zone for sea level rise due to enhanced rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September. An attempt has been made here to look into the cause-effect relationships between observed trends in sea surface temperature (SST) over the Bay of Bengal and the trends in monsoon rains and sea level in Bangladesh. The study utilizes the 14-year satellite-derived SSTs over the Bay of Bengal for 1985–1998, the tide gauge stations data along the Bangladesh coast for 1977–1998 and the 31-year monsoon rainfall data for Bangladesh, 1961–1991. Received October 20, 2000     

关键海区海温异常的变化与中国区域降水和气温的关系

利用 １９５１年到 １９９８年的月平均海温资料及同时期中国 １６０个测站的降水和气温的月平均资料,选用海温异常的变化趋势一变温,讨论了关键海区海温异常的变化与我国降水和气温的关系,旨在探讨变温因子与我国降水和气温的关系与海温距平与降水和气温的关系有什么不同,用变温因子能否降低降水预报的不确定性。结果表明：降水异常对海温异常两种变化趋势的响应不完全相同,说明分别讨论同一种海温异常态的两种变化趋势对降水的影响比单独讨论海温距平对降水的影响更有效一些,有助于降低预报的不确定性;除西太平洋海区外,气温异常对各海区海温异常两种变化趋势的响应较一致。降水异常对变温的响应与对海温异常的响应,有一致之处,也有不同之处。     

Impact of increasing stratospheric water vapor on ozone depletion and temperature change

Using a detailed, fully coupled chemistry climate model (CCM), the effect of increasing stratospheric H_{2O on ozone and temperature is investigated. Different CCM time-slice runs have been performed to investigate the chemical and radiative impacts of an assumed 2 ppmv increase in H2O. The chemical effects of this H2O increase lead to an overall decrease of the total column ozone (TCO) by ～1% in the tropics and by a maximum of 12% at southern high latitudes. At northern high latitudes, the TCO is increased by only up to 5% due to stronger transport in the Arctic. A 2-ppmv H2O increase in the model's radiation scheme causes a cooling of the tropical stratosphere of no more than 2 K, but a cooling of more than 4 K at high latitudes. Consequently, the TCO is increased by about 2%--6%. Increasing stratospheric H2O, therefore, cools the stratosphere both directly and indirectly, except in the polar regions where the temperature responds differently due to feedbacks between ozone and H2O changes. The combined chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O may give rise to more cooling in the tropics and middle latitudes but less cooling in the polar stratosphere. The combined effects of H2O increases on ozone tend to offset each other, except in the Arctic stratosphere where both the radiative and chemical impacts give rise to increased ozone. The chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O cause dynamical responses in the stratosphere with an evident hemispheric asymmetry. In terms of ozone recovery, increasing the stratospheric H2O is likely to accelerate the recovery in the northern high latitudes and delay it in the southern high latitudes. The modeled ozone recovery is more significant between 2000--2050 than between 2050--2100, driven mainly by the larger relative change in chlorine in the earlier period.}     

热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究

用1955年1月-2001年12月美国Scripps海洋研究所的海温再分析资料、美国NCEP再分析资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)资料,讨论了热带太平洋ENSO与热带印度洋海温距平以及与印度洋偶极子(Dipole)的关系,研究结果发现:在垂直最大温度距平曲面(MTAL)上,热带印度洋海温距平分布存在着与热带太平洋ENSO密切相关的Dipole现象,其中最大的相关在太平洋ENSO 超前印度洋Dipole一个月.但是,热带印度洋Dipole的分布与Saij定义的位置略有不同,为东北西南向,它们分别在6°-10°S、65°-75°E(西印度洋)和2°-6°N、85°-95°E(东印度洋),它是赤道印度洋的一个主要海温距平系统.另外,在热带印度洋东北部与ENSO相关的海温距平是一个上下不一致的系统,该海温距平并没有伸展到海面,从海面到20-50 m的浅薄水层,则为与赤道西南印度洋相同符号的海温距平分布.因此在海面,海温距平不存在与ENSO有关的Dipole现象,赤道印度洋Dipole只存在于次表层以下,这是赤道印度洋Dipole与ENSO不同之处.这种赤道东北印度洋表层与赤道西南印度洋表层同符号的海温距平现象,有可能是海气热力过程如感热过程造成的.热带印度洋Dipole的周期要小于El Nio,一般为1-6 a.     

局地海表温度异常影响热带气旋路径的模拟研究

本文以热带气旋"鲇鱼"(2010)为例,利用WRF模式和"鲇鱼"移动路径上不同的局地海表温度(SST)强迫进行了敏感性数值模拟。控制试验(CTRL)采用NCEP的SST强迫,敏感性试验分别在"鲇鱼"登陆菲律宾前的路径上增加(EXP1)和减小(EXP2)SST。结果表明:CTRL试验模拟的热带气旋路径与实况非常一致,EXP1试验模拟的热带气旋路径提前转向,移动路径偏东,EXP2试验模拟的热带气旋路径转向滞后,且移动路径偏西。对SST异常导致热带气旋路径出现差异的原因分析发现,热带气旋在吕宋岛东侧经过异常暖SST海面时,热带气旋强度增强,产生异常的正涡度平流,且500 h Pa以上凝结潜热释放增强副热带高压敏感区出现温度场的正异常,500h Pa以下水凝物的混合和蒸发作用增强造成副热带高压敏感区温度场的负异常,加之正的异常涡度平流和异常的上暖下冷温度场配置使得500 h Pa位势高度降低,副热带高压强度减弱,副热带高压西伸范围减小,导致热带气旋提前向北转向,移动路径偏东。反之,当热带气旋在吕宋岛东侧经过异常冷SST海面时,副热带高压西伸范围扩大,导致热带气旋向北转向滞后,路径偏西。     

两种陆面方案对陆雾与海雾模拟效果的对比研究

利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,针对1次陆雾与1次同时包含近海雾区与开阔海域雾区的海雾个例,开展了2种陆面方案——SLAB(five-layer thermal diffusion scheme)方案与Noah(Noah land surface scheme)方案——的模拟效果对比研究。研究结果表明:1)SLAB方案与Noah方案在开阔海域雾区模拟中的表现基本一致,但只有前者成功再现了陆雾与近海雾区。2)对于陆雾,与SLAB方案相比,Noah方案在白天偏高的地表温度造成偏强的地面垂直热量通量,加之偏弱的垂直水汽通量共同使得地面相对湿度偏低20％,导致模拟失败。3)对于海雾,两种方案模拟的地表温度与地面垂直水汽通量之间的差异,直接导致了地面2 m气温与水汽混合比的差异,进而影响了渤海的地面低压天气系统的强弱与水汽平流的大小,从而使得它们对渤海近海雾区的模拟表现迥异。本次个例中,应用广泛且陆面过程完善的Noah方案对陆雾模拟的表现反而不如过程简单的SLAB方案,本文对此给出了初步的解释,但仍需进一步探究其原因。     

北太平洋副热带高压与赤道东部海温的相互作用

本文根据1957—1976年太平洋的月平均海平面气压和海温资料,分析了赤道东部海温与北太平洋海平面气压场的时滞相关。发现赤道海温的变化,就北太平洋而言,主要是受该洋东南部低层副热带及气旋的控制,而赤道海温对副热带高压的反馈,主要是发生在太平洋中部对流层副热带高压中心附近地区。赤道海温向副热带反气旋调整的时间平均为二个月左右,而副热带高压向赤道海温调整的时间平均为四个月左右。前者比后者更快。它们之间相互影响、相互调整形成了一种闭合的负反馈过程。整个过程约历时22个月左右,大致相当于北太平洋副热带高压和赤道海     

Contribution of the sea surface temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the decadal shift of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation

Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study, the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea (MBS) SST. A warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level pressure (SLP) departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO, the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center, consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward positive-phase SNAO southern center shift. The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not the case beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951--1975, the variability of the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978--2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed by sensitivity experiments.     

A qualitative study on sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean and performance of Indian summer monsoon

A careful analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean using the available SST data sets (namely, Hadley Center Ice SST, tropical rainfall measuring mission microwave imager SST, and optimum interpolation SST) at different time scales has been presented in the present study. By simple visual inspection of the SST plots, it has been shown that the qualitative prediction of Indian summer monsoon condition (weak/normal) and northern limit of monsoon (NLM) can be possible a month in advance using SST. The present qualitative study may be useful for common man to know the behavior of summer monsoon well a month in advance. Therefore, the qualitative study may enable the common man to show the application of satellite data to bring out the information regarding the onset of summer monsoon and related performance of Indian summer monsoon well in advance.     

太平洋海温异常对其上空环流影响的分析及数值试验

本文首先用《逐月全球气候资料》中的实测风资料对80年代的两次El Nino。事件(1982—1983年和1986—1987年)太平洋地区上空环流的变化情况进行了分析研究,然后用一个九层原始方程模式对其进行数值模拟试验. 观测资料分析及数值模拟结果皆表明,赤道东太平洋的这两次海温异常都使其上空的环流发生明显的变化,但由于两次海温异常的强度、范围和延续时间有所不同,对环流的影响也不相同.本文将简要地介绍这两次El Nio期间太平洋上空环流的演变特征及数值试验的结果.