Observed Characteristics of Regional Seismic Phases and Implications for P/S Discrimination in the European Arctic

—?In this paper, we use data from seismic stations operated by NORSAR, the Kola Regional Seismological Centre (KRSC) and IRIS to study the characteristics of regional phases in the European Arctic, with emphasis on the P/S ratio discriminant. While the detection and location capability of the regional station network is outstanding, source classification of small seismic events has proved very difficult. For example, the m _b ?=?3.5 seismic event near Novaya Zemlya on 16 August, 1997 has been the subject of extensive analysis in order to locate it reliably and to classify the source type. We consider the application of the P/S discriminant in the context of this event and other events observed at regional distances in the European Arctic. We show that the P/S ratios of Novaya Zemlya nuclear explosions measured in the 1–3?Hz filter band scale with magnitude, indicating a need for caution and further research when applying P/S discriminants. Using mainly data from the large NORSAR array, we note that observed P/S amplitude ratios in the European Arctic show large variability for the same source type and similar propagation paths, even when considering closely spaced observation points. This effect is most pronounced at far regional distances and relatively low frequencies (typically 1–3?Hz), but it is also significant on closer recordings (around 10 degrees) and at higher frequencies (up to about 8?Hz). Our conclusion from this study is that the P/S ratio at high frequencies (e.g., 6–8?Hz) shows promise as a discriminant between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic, but its application will require further research, including extensive regional calibration and detailed station-source corrections. Such research should also focus on combining the P/S ratio with other short-period discriminants, such as complexity and spectral ratios.     

Calibration of P/S amplitude ratios for seismic events in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas based on a Bayesian Kriging method

Correction maps of P/S amplitude ratios for seismic events distributed in Xinjiang, China and its adjacent areas were established using a Bayesian Kriging method for the two seismic stations WMQ and MAK. The relationship between correction maps and variations of along-path features was analyzed and the validity of applying the cor- rection maps to improve performances of P/S discriminants for seismic discrimination was investigated. Results show that obtained correction maps can generally reflect event-station path effects upon corresponding P/S dis- criminants; and the correction of these effects could further reduce scatters of distance-corrected P/S measurements within earthquake and explosion populations as well as improve their discriminating performances if path effects are a significant factor of such scatters. For example, as corresponding Kriging correction map was applied, the misidentification rate of earthquakes by Pn(2~4 Hz)/Lg(2~4 Hz) at MAK was reduced from 16.3% to 5.2%.     

基于贝叶斯原理的爆炸识别判据综合技术研究

基于贝叶斯原理,建立了地震事件识别判据的综合方法（简称贝叶斯方法）, 并针对中亚地区大量地震事件,采用该方法综合了不同台站和不同频带的P/S震相幅值比判据. 该方法的主要优点是能够给出事件属于爆炸的概率,而且充分考虑了判据之间的相关性. 理论计算和模拟数据分析结果表明, 贝叶斯方法是最优的综合方法, 其识别效果比任何单个判据好,也好于普通线性组合方法的识别效果. 针对中亚地区大量地震事件综合不同台站和不同频带的P/S震相幅值比判据的结果也表明,贝叶斯方法的误识率低于单个判据和线性组合方法的误识率.      

Multivariate discrimination technique based on the Bayesian theory

A multivariate discrimination technique was established based on the Bayesian theory. Using this technique, P/S ratios of different types (e.g., Pn/Sn, Pn/Lg, Pg/Sn or Pg/Lg) measured within different frequency bands and from different stations were combined together to discriminate seismic events in Central Asia. Major advantages of the Bayesian approach are that the probability to be an explosion for any unknown event can be directly calculated given the measurements of a group of discriminants, and at the same time correlations among these discriminants can be fully taken into account. It was proved theoretically that the Bayesian technique would be optimal and its discriminating performance would be better than that of any individual discriminant as well as better than that yielded by the linear combination approach ignoring correlations among discriminants. This conclusion was also validated in this paper by applying the Bayesian approach to the above-mentioned observed data.     

Calibration of Regional S/P Amplitude-ratio Discriminants

v--vS/P amplitude ratios have proven to be a valuable discriminant in support of monitoring a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Regional S and P phases attenuate at different rates and the attenuation can vary geographically. Therefore, calibration is needed to apply the S/P discriminant in new regions. Calibration includes application of frequency-dependent source and distance corrections for regional Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg phases.¶Jenkins et al. (1998) developed Pn, Pg, Sn, and Lg amplitude models for nine geographic regions and two global composite models, stable and tectonic. They determined frequency-dependent source and attenuation corrections from a large data set obtained from the Prototype International Data Center (PIDC). We use their corrections to evaluate calibrated S/P discriminants.¶Our discrimination data set includes >1000 amplitude ratios from earthquakes, industrial explosions, chemical explosions, and nuclear explosions from Lop Nor, India and Pakistan. We find that the calibrated S/P ratio is largest for earthquakes and smallest for the nuclear explosions, as expected. However, the discriminant is not universally valid. In particular, the S/P ratio for the Pakistan nuclear explosion fell within the normal range for the earthquakes. This event was recorded by only a few stations at far-regional distances and appears to have an anomalously high Sn amplitude. The industrial explosions overlap with the earthquake population, however the buried chemical explosions generally register lower S/P ratio than earthquakes.     

利用克里金技术标定新疆及附近地区P/S震相幅值比及其在地震事件识别中的应用

针对中国的乌鲁木齐台（WMQ）和哈萨克斯坦的马坎奇台（MAK）,采用贝叶斯克里金技术建立了新疆及附近地区地震事件的震相幅值比的校正曲面,并分析了校正曲面与地震波传播路径的关系,以及校正曲面对于改善震相幅值比判据识别效果的有效性.分析结果表明,建立的校正曲面基本合理,结合传播路径差异和地震波传播规律,能够较好地解释校正曲面的起伏特征. 而且,在传播路径差异较大,使得震相幅值比经震中距校正后离散度仍然较高的情况下,利用校正曲面修正震相幅值比,可以进一步降低其离散度,从而改善判据的识别效果.经校正曲面修正后,对天然地震的误识率由16.3%下降为5.2％.      

Spectral classification methods in monitoring small local events by the Israel seismic network

We use the dense Israel Seismic Network (ISN) to discriminate between low magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the Middle East region. This issue is important for CTBT monitoring, especially when considering small nuclear tests which may be conducted under evasive conditions. We explore the performance of efficient discriminants based on spectral features of seismograms using waveforms of 50 earthquakes and 114 quarry and underwater blasts with magnitudes 1.0–2.8, recorded by ISN short-period stations at distances up to 200 km. The single-station spectral ratio of the low and high-frequency seismic energy shows an overlap between explosions and earthquakes. After averaging over a subnet of stations, the resolving power is enhanced and the two classes of events are separated. Different frequency bands were tested; the (1–3 Hz)/(6–8 Hz) ratio provided the best discriminant performance. We also estimated normalized r.m.s. spectral amplitudes in several sequential equal frequency windows within the 1–12 Hz band and applied multiparametric automatic classification procedures (Linear Discrimination Function and Artificial Neural Network) to the amplitudes averaged over a subnetwork. A leave-one-out test showed a low rate of error for the multiparametric procedures. An innovative multi-station discriminant is proposed, based on spectral modulation associated with ripple-firing in quarry blasts and with the bubbling effect in underwater explosions. It utilizes a distinct azimuth-invariant coherency of spectral shapes for different stations in the frequency range (1–12 Hz). The coherency is measured by semblance statistics commonly used in seismic prospecting for phase correlation in the time domain. After modification, the statistics applied to the network spectra provided event separation. A new feature of all the above mentioned procedures is that they are based on smoothed (0.5 Hz window), instrument-corrected FFT spectra of the whole signal; they are robust to the accuracy of onset time estimation and, thus well suited to automatic event identification.     

Testing Event Discrimination over Broad Regions using the Historical Borovoye Observatory Explosion Dataset

We test the performance of high-frequency regional P/S discriminants to differentiate between earthquakes and explosions at test sites and over broad regions using a historical dataset of explosions recorded at the Borovoye Observatory in Kazakhstan. We compare these explosions to modern recordings of earthquakes at the same location. We then evaluate the separation of the two types of events using the raw measurements and those where the amplitudes are corrected for 1-D and 2-D attenuation structure. We find that high-frequency P/S amplitudes can reliably identify earthquakes and explosions, and that the discriminant is applicable over broad regions as long as propagation effects are properly accounted for. Lateral attenuation corrections provide the largest improvement in the 2–4 Hz band, the use of which may successfully enable the identification of smaller, distant events that have lower signal-to-noise at higher frequencies. We also find variations in P/S ratios among the three main nuclear testing locations within the Semipalatinsk Test Site which, due to their nearly identical paths to BRVK, must be a function of differing geology and emplacement conditions.     

不同地区人工爆炸与天然地震记录特征及识别研究

本文分析了河北怀来多次爆炸、河北三河采石场多次爆炸和低震级天然地震事件的记录特征和时频差异。结果显示:河北怀来爆炸的P波能量强、衰减快、S波发育弱;河北三河采石场爆炸的P波、S波主频均低于怀来爆炸,S波与面波混淆,不同震中距的台站记录低频发育明显;而天然地震的有效频带更宽,频率成分更为复杂。将Pg/Sg谱比判据应用于小震级地震与爆炸的识别中,探索交叉频带谱比对不同地区爆炸的识别。结果表明:高频（＞5 Hz）Pg/Sg谱比判据可将研究数据中的爆炸与小震级地震完全区分;与Sg低频（0—2 Hz）有关的交叉频带谱比可对两个不同地区的爆炸进行识别,交叉频带的谱比判据较传统的单一频带谱比判据能够更好地反映出不同类型事件的特征差异。      

The Kirovskiy Explosion of September 29, 1996: Example of a CTB Event Notification for a Routine Mining Blast

—?On September 29, 1996, a routine mining blast of about 390 metric tons was detonated underground at the Kirovskiy mine in the central Kola Peninsula. The United States was notified two weeks in advance that the blast was to take place and was given the date, approximate time, location and total charge. The explosion was detected and located by the prototype International Data Center (pIDC) and published in the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). Detailed information about the blast, including the type and depth of mining operation, the underground charge configuration, and the blasting delay pattern, is reviewed and combined with a seismological analysis of the event. The seismic analysis points to a possible associated tectonic component to the blast, consisting of a small rock burst or induced tremor, spall, or some combination of these mechanisms, that may have enhanced the shear waves, produced large Rg waves at low frequency, and small Pn/Sn and Pn/Lg amplitude ratios at high frequency. While these discriminants might identify the event as an earthquake, the spectral/cepstral analysis of the event clearly shows the ripple-fire delays. This event provides important confidence-building measures for both location calibration, in the form of travel-time corrections for location of mine events in this region, and for improved understanding of seismic discriminants expected for large mine blasts that may have an associated induced tectonic component (e.g., spall, mine tremor or rock burst).     

Slowness Corrections — One Way to Improve IDC Products

—?The first step to identify and locate a seismic event is the association of observed onsets with common seismic sources. This is especially important in the context of monitoring the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) at the International Data Center (IDC) being developed in Vienna, Austria. Well-defined slowness measurements are very useful for associating seismic phases to presumed seismic events.¶Shortly after installation of the first seismic arrays, systematic discrepancies between measured and theoretically predicted slowness values were observed, and therefore slowness measurements of seismic stations should be calibrated. The observed slownesses measured with small aperture arrays, some of which will be included in the International Monitoring System (IMS) now being implemented for verifying compliance with the CTBT, show large scatter and deviations from theoretically expected values. However, in this study a method is presented, by which mean slowness corrections can be derived, which show relatively stable patterns specific to each array.¶The correction of measured slowness values of these arrays clearly improved the single array location capabilities. Applying slowness corrections with seismic phases observed by ARCES, FINES, GERES, and NORES, and associated to seismic events in the bulletins of the prototype International Data Center (pIDC) in Arlington, VA, also clearly demonstrates the advantages of these corrections. For arrays with large slowness deviations that are due to the influence of a dipping layer, the corrections were modeled with a sine function depending on the measured azimuth. In addition, the measured values can be weighted with the corresponding uncertainties known from the process of deriving the mean corrections.     

朝鲜核爆的Rayleigh波震级测量

利用1995年至2009年中国东北及邻近地区11个宽频带台站记录到的77个地震事件、3个化学爆炸和2次朝鲜核爆的区域地震资料,标定该区域台网的Rayleigh波震级.通过对8~25 s 周期的垂直分量Rayleigh波形进行分析,获取基于最大振幅的面波震级.计算82个区域事件不同周期的台基响应,经过台基校正后取最大振幅的面波震级为事件震级.2006年和2009年两次朝鲜核爆的面波震级分别为2.93±0.19和3.62±0.21.将地震和核爆事件的面波震级M_s与体波震级m_b(Lg)进行比较,发现根据该区域台网的数据利用M_s-m_b识别方法无法鉴别朝鲜地区的核爆与地震.朝鲜核爆的面波震级相对较大,使M_s-m_b识别方法失效,其原因可能是源区介质的不均匀性、由核爆炸冲击引发的深部的拉伸破坏被抑制,或者是近爆源区存在张性的构造预应力.假定核爆可能的埋藏深度范围是0.01~1.0 km,用Rayleigh波震级估计朝鲜核爆的当量,对2006年和2009年核爆当量的估值范围分别为0.42~3.17 kt和2.06~15.53 kt.     

Improving Regional Seismic Event Location in China

—?In an effort to improve our ability to locate seismic events in China using only regional data, we have developed empirical propagation path corrections and applied such corrections using traditional location routines. Thus far, we have concentrated on corrections to observed P arrival times for crustal events using travel-time observations available from the USGS Earthquake Data Reports, the International Seismic Centre Bulletin, the preliminary International Data Center Reviewed Event Bulletin, and our own travel-time picks from regional data. Location ground truth for events used in this study ranges from 25?km for well-located teleseimic events, down to 2?km for nuclear explosions located using satellite imagery. We also use eight events for which depth is constrained using several waveform methods. We relocate events using the EvLoc algorithm from a region encompassing much of China (latitude 20°–55°N; longitude 65°–115°E). We observe that travel-time residuals exhibit a distance-dependent bias using IASPEI91 as our base model. To remedy this bias, we have developed a new 1-D model for China, which removes a significant portion of the distance bias. For individual stations having sufficient P-wave residual data, we produce a map of the regional travel-time residuals from all well-located teleseismic events. Residuals are used only if they are smaller than 10?s in absolute value and if the seismic event is located with accuracy better than 25?km. From the residual data, correction surfaces are constructed using modified Bayesian kriging. Modified Bayesian kriging offers us the advantage of providing well-behaved interpolants and their errors, but requires that we have adequate error estimates associated with the travel-time residuals from which they are constructed. For our P-wave residual error estimate, we use the sum of measurement and modeling errors, where measurement error is based on signal-to-noise ratios when available, and on the published catalog estimate otherwise. Our modeling error originates from the variance of travel-time residuals for our 1-D China model. We calculate propagation path correction surfaces for 74 stations in and around China, including six stations from the International Monitoring System. The statistical significance of each correction surface is evaluated using a cross-validation technique. We show relocation results for nuclear tests from the Balapan and Lop Nor test sites, and for earthquakes located using interferometric synthetic aperture radar. These examples show that the use of propagation path correction surfaces in regional relocations eliminates distance bias in the residual curves and significantly improves the accuracy and precision of seismic event locations.     

Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H ₀: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m _b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m _b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M _S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m _b, earthquakes generally have a larger M _S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M _S and m _b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H ₀: explosion characteristics.     

Teleseismic Lg of Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya Nuclear Explosions Recorded by the GRF (Gräfenberg) Array: Comparison with Regional Lg (BRV) and their Potential for Accurate Yield Estimation

—?A comparison of regional and teleseismic log rms (root-mean-square) L g amplitude measurements have been made for 14 underground nuclear explosions from the East Kazakh test site recorded both by the BRV (Borovoye) station in Kazakhstan and the GRF (Gräfenberg) array in Germany. The log rms L g amplitudes observed at the BRV regional station at a distance of 690?km and at the teleseismic GRF array at a distance exceeding 4700?km show very similar relative values (standard deviation 0.048 magnitude units) for underground explosions of different sizes at the Shagan River test site. This result as well as the comparison of BRV rms L g magnitudes (which were calculated from the log rms amplitudes using an appropriate calibration) with magnitude determinations for P waves of global seismic networks (standard deviation 0.054 magnitude units) point to a high precision in estimating the relative source sizes of explosions from L g-based single station data. Similar results were also obtained by other investigators (Patton, 1988; Ringdal et?al., 1992) using L g data from different stations at different distances.¶Additionally, GRF log rms L g and P-coda amplitude measurements were made for a larger data set from Novaya Zemlya and East Kazakh explosions, which were supplemented with m _b (L g) amplitude measurements using a modified version of Nuttli's (1973, 1986a) method. From this test of the relative performance of the three different magnitude scales, it was found that the L g and P-coda based magnitudes performed equally well, whereas the modified Nuttli m _b (L g) magnitudes show greater scatter when compared to the worldwide m _b reference magnitudes. Whether this result indicates that the rms amplitude measurements are superior to the zero-to-peak amplitude measurement of a single cycle used for the modified Nuttli method, however, cannot be finally assessed, since the calculated m _b (L g) magnitudes are only preliminary until appropriate attenuation corrections are available for the specific path to GRF.     

Seismic discrimination of the 2009 North Korean nuclear explosion based on regional source spectra

Seismic discrimination of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) based on regional waveforms in continental margins is challenging due to large variations among waveforms. The 2009 North Korean UNE test was conducted in the far eastern Eurasian plate. The UNE was recorded by densely-located regional seismic stations, and regional waveforms exhibit highly path-dependent amplitude and arrival time features due to complex crustal structures. Regional source spectra are calculated by correcting for the path effects on the waveforms. A two-step approach is proposed for stable inversion of source-spectral parameters and path parameters. Characteristic overshoot features are observed in the source spectra, particularly strong in Pn. The path parameter, Q, is determined uniquely regardless of the source-spectral model implemented, which suggests stable separation of path effects from waveform records. The estimated source spectra fit well to a theoretical UNE source-spectral model. The fitness between the estimated and theoretical source-spectral models allows us to discriminate UNEs from natural earthquakes. Also, the P/S source-spectral ratio is observed to be an effective discriminant of UNE.     

基于Lg波识别判据的特性分析

Lg波是检测、识别地下核爆炸的重要震相.通常情况下,地下核爆炸的低频段Lg波能量相对较强,基于Lg波的识别判据在高频段表现较好.然而在低频范围内却表现出难以用球对称爆炸源模式解释的现象,如Lg/Pg判据在1 Hz附近失效等现象.本文利用理论地震图方法,分析了伴随层裂过程产生的重要辅助源——CLVD源对Lg波低频成分的调...     

朝鲜2009年和2013年两次核爆的地震学特征对比研究

利用布设在长白山地区临时地震台站接收到的朝鲜核爆的波形资料,对2009年5月25日和2013年2月12日两次朝鲜核试验的地震学特征进行比较.震中距范围从145km到420km.采用P/S型谱比值方法识别朝鲜核爆,通过与2009年3月20日长春地震和2013年1月23日沈阳地震事件的比较,表明在频率大于3 Hz时P/S型谱比值能够有效识别发生在中朝边境地区的地下核试验.选定参考台站,利用区域震相Pg波的振幅谱比值计算朝鲜核爆至各台站路径上的相对衰减.结合介质速度模型,在一定程度上反映了长白山地区衰减情况,为进一步研究长白山地区衰减层析成像提供初始模型.     

Rediscovering Signal Complexity as a Teleseismic Discriminant

We re-examine the utility of teleseismic seismic complexity discriminants in a multivariate setting using United Kingdom array data. We measure a complexity discriminant taken on array beams by simply taking the logarithm of the ratio of the P-wave coda signal to that of the first arriving direct P wave (β_CF). The single station complexity discriminant shows marginal performance with shallow earthquakes having more complex signatures than those from explosions or deep earthquakes. Inclusion of secondary phases in the coda window can also degrade performance. However, performance improves markedly when two-station complexity discriminants are formed showing false alarm rates similar to those observed for network m_b − M_s. This suggests that multistation complexity discriminants may ameliorate some of the problems associated with m_b – M_s discrimination at lower magnitudes. Additionally, when complexity discriminants are combined with m_b – M_s there is a tendency for explosions, shallow earthquakes and deep earthquakes to form three distinct populations. Thus, complexity discriminants may follow a logic that is similar to m_b – M_s in terms of the separation of shallow earthquakes from nuclear explosions, although the underlying physics of the two discriminants is significantly different.     

Application of the dynamic calibration method to international monitoring system stations in Central Asia using natural seismicity data

The dynamic calibration method (DCM), using natural seismicity data and initially elaborated in [Kedrov, 2001; Kedrov et al., 2001; Kedrov and Kedrov, 2003], is applied to International Monitoring System (IMS) stations in Central Asia. The algorithm of the method is refined and a program is designed for calibrating diagnostic parameters (discriminants) that characterize a seismic source on the source-station traces. The DCM calibration of stations in relation to the region under study is performed by the choice of attenuation coefficients that adapt the diagnostic parameters to the conditions in a reference region. In this method, the stable Eurasia region is used as the latter. The calibration used numerical data samples taken from the archive of the International Data Centre (IDC) for the IMS stations MKAR, BVAR, EIL, ASF, and CMAR. In this paper, we used discriminants in the spectral and time domains that have the form

$D_i = X_i - a_m m_b - b_\Delta \log \Delta $

and are independent of the magnitude m _b and the epicentral distance Δ; these discriminants were elaborated in [Kedrov et al., 1990; Kedrov and Lyuke, 1999] on the basis of a method used for identification of events at regional distances in Eurasia. Prerequisites of the DCM are the assumptions that the coefficient a _m is regionindependent and the coefficient b _Δ depends only on the geotectonic characteristics of the medium and does not depend on the source type. Thus, b _Δ can be evaluated only from a sample of earthquakes in the region studied; it is used for adapting the discriminants D(X _i ) in the region studied to the reference region. The algorithm is constructed in such a way that corrected values of D(X i) are calculated from the found values of the calibration coefficients b _Δ, after which natural events in the region under study are selected by filtering. Empirical estimates of the filtering efficiency as a function of a station vary in a range of 95–100%. The DCM was independently tested using records obtained at the IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology) stations BRVK and MAKZ from explosions detonated in India on May 11, 1998, and Pakistan on May 28, 1998; these stations are similar in location and recording instrumentation characteristics to the IMS stations BVAR and MKAR. This test resulted in correct recognition of the source type and thereby directly confirmed the validity of the proposed calibration method of stations with the use of natural seismicity data. It is shown that the calibration coefficients b _Δ for traces similar in the conditions of signal propagation (e.g., the traces from Iran to the stations EIL and ASF) are comparable for nearly all diagnostic parameters. We arrive at the conclusion that the method of dynamic calibration of stations using natural seismicity data in a region where no explosions were detonated can be significant for a rapid and inexpensive calibration of IMS stations. The DCM can also be used for recognition of industrial chemical explosions that are sometimes erroneously classified in regional catalogs as earthquakes.