A bivariate gamma distribution for use in multivariate flood frequency analysis

A gamma distribution is one of the most frequently selected distribution types for hydrological frequency analysis. The bivariate gamma distribution with gamma marginals may be useful for analysing multivariate hydrological events. This study investigates the applicability of a bivariate gamma model with five parameters for describing the joint probability behavior of multivariate flood events. The parameters are proposed to be estimated from the marginal distributions by the method of moments. The joint distribution, the conditional distribution, and the associated return periods are derived from marginals. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by representing the joint probabilistic behaviour between correlated flood peak and flood volume and between correlated flood volume and flood duration in the Madawask River basin in the province of Quebec, Canada. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

A novel soil moisture‐based drought severity index (DSI) combining water deficit magnitude and frequency

A correct identification of drought events over vegetated lands can be achieved by detecting those soil moisture conditions that are both unusually dry compared with the ‘normal’ state and causing severe water stress to the vegetation. In this paper, we propose a novel drought index that accounts for the mutual occurrence of these two conditions by means of a multiplicative approach of a water deficit factor and a dryness probability factor. The former quantifies the actual level of plant water stress, whereas the latter verifies that the current water deficit condition is unusual for the specific site and period. The methodology was tested over Europe between 1995 and 2012 using soil moisture maps simulated by Lisflood, a distributed hydrological precipitation–runoff model. The proposed drought severity index (DSI) demonstrates to be able to detect the main drought events observed over Europe in the last two decades, as well as to provide a reasonable estimation of both extension and magnitude of these events. It also displays an improved adaptability to the range of possible conditions encountered in the experiment as compared with currently available indices based on the sole magnitude or frequency. The results show that, for the analyzed period, the most extended drought events observed over Europe were the ones in Central Europe in 2003 and in southern Europe in 2011/2012, while the events affecting the Iberian Peninsula in 1995 and 2005 and Eastern Europe in 2000 were among the most severe ones. © 2015 European Commission ‐ Joint Research Centre. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

An analysis of non-normal Markovian extremal droughts

In many arid and semi-arid environments of the world, years of extended droughts are not uncommon. The occurrence of a drought can be reflected by the deficiency of the rainfall or stream flow sequences below the long-term mean value, which is generally taken as the truncation level for the identification of the droughts. The commonly available statistics for the above processes are mean, coefficient of variation and the lag-one serial correlation coefficient, and at times some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period, which form a basis for designing facilities to meet exigencies arising as a result of droughts. The sequences of drought variable, such as annual rainfall or stream flow, may follow normal, log-normal or gamma distributions, and may evolve in a Markovian fashion and are bound to influence extremal values of the duration and severity. The effect of the aforesaid statistical parameters on the extremal drought durations and severity have been analysed in the present paper. A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the return period ‘T’ in years has been suggested in parallel to the flood frequency formula, commonly cited in the hydrological texts. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于MPI的时频分布的改进及应用

Cohen类时频分布在一定程度上克服了Wigner\|Ville分布的不足,特别是交叉项.但在平滑交叉项的同时却降低了时频聚集性,从而本文讨论了Wigner\|Ville分布的修正方法,进而可提取出不同的地震时频属性.为了提高计算效率,采用了基于MPI的并行计算及时频属性优化方法,取得了良好的效果.     

Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.     

Rainwater and reclaimed wastewater for sustainable urban water use

Concern about the sustainability of urban water use is the strong motivation to understand the potential of rainwater use and water recycling in urbanized cities. The history of water supply in Tokyo and its experience may provide useful information to develop sustainable urban water use and find future possible tasks in rapidly growing cities. Besides, various innovative strategies to meet the current and future water demand in Tokyo may help us to consider new approaches adjusting to the developing mega cities in Asia. In this paper, the past and current practices on utilization of latent water resources such as rainwater and reclaimed wastewater in Tokyo are summarized from the viewpoint of sustainable water use.The storage of rainwater is a useful measure for water demand in emergency cases. In addition, the rainwater use can work as a kind of environmental education to make citizens aware of sustainable urban water use. There are 850 facilities for rainwater use in Tokyo. Since reclaimed wastewater use has several benefits, a huge water volume has been utilized for various purposes such as washing, water-cooling, toilet flushing, waterway restoration and creation of recreational waterfront. From the viewpoint of human health risk, new micropollutants such as estrogens, endocrine disrupters and surfactants should be considered as quality guideline parameter besides the conventional ones. Importance of infiltration facilities should be also highlighted to secure the sound water cycle. Groundwater recharge through the infiltration facilities provide a potential storage of water resource which can be withdrawn in the future if necessary.     

鄱阳湖沉积物间隙水中磷的含量及其分布特征

根据2010年1月对鄱阳湖各站点沉积物的采样分析,研究了鄱阳湖沉积物间隙水中总溶解性磷(DTP)与可溶性正磷酸盐(DIP)的含量及其分布特征,并对各站点表层沉积物间隙水中DTP和DIP的含量及其沉积物中TP与IP的含量进行了相关性分析.结果表明,鄱阳湖各站点表层沉积物(0 -2cm)间隙水中DTP的平均含量为0.134...     

The two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis: Derivation of a new estimation method

The two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution has recently been shown to account for most of the characteristics of the real flood experience. A new method of parameter estimation for this distribution is derived using the principle of maximum entropy (POME). This method of parameter estimation is suitable for application in both the site-specific and regional cases and appears simpler than the maximum likelihood estimation method. Statistical properties of the regionalized estimation were evaluated using a Monte Carlo approach and compared with those of the maximum likelihood regional estimators.     

Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.     

非传统湖泊水色遥感的现状与发展

外界环境条件以及自身因素的驱动,改变了传统湖泊水色遥感垂向均一的理论假设前提,基于垂向非均匀条件的湖泊水体水色参数的遥感称之为非传统湖泊水色遥感.本文分析了传统水色遥感面临的挑战,且非传统湖泊水色遥感中藻类叶绿素a浓度的垂向分布类型及其定量表达、水下光场分布的定量表达模型与数值模拟方法,给出垂向异质水体遥感反射比的定量表达式,分析了藻类垂向异质对水色参数遥感反演模型的影响,最后提出下一步需要重点关注的问题.     

磁偶极子梯度张量的几何不变量及其应用

磁梯度张量系统姿态的变化将影响梯度场测量和数据解释的精度,使得具有坐标变换不变性特点的张量不变量成为磁梯度张量数据解释的研究热点.本文在对磁偶极子产生的磁梯度张量进行特征值分析的基础上得到了:测量点与磁偶极子位置形成的位置矢量、磁偶极子磁矩矢量与绝对值最小的特征值对应的特征向量垂直;位置矢量和磁矩矢量与最大及最小特征值对应的特征向量共面,且两矢量间的夹角可由磁梯度张量矩阵的特征值表示.最后,将本文所得磁偶极子梯度张量的几何不变量用于磁性目标的跟踪中,取得了较好的实时跟踪效果.     

动态聚类分析与太湖水质分区

以总硬度、pH、溶氧、化学耗氧、总氮、总磷、浮游植物、透明度8项指标为依据,参照现行湖泊营养类型划分标准,应用fuzzy聚类分析方法对我国42个主要湖泊聚类并划分其营养类型,同时对各类型的指标特征进行了分析。结果表明:在相似水平λ=0.69下,42个湖泊共聚为13类。其中,中、富营养型有较强的相似性,其差异显著的指标为总氮、总磷和化学耗氧量;贫营养型湖泊相似性差,其共同特征是指标中一项或数项显著异于一般营养范围。聚类结果与传统分类基本吻合。     

几何校正对暗像元算法及离水辐亮度反演精度的影响:以太湖为例

几何校正将引起几何校正前后像元的像素值发生变化,进而导致暗像元的辐亮度在几何校正前后存在偏差.本文以太湖为研究水区,以2003年10月28日的Landsat/TM影像、2008年7月24日的CBERS影像和2009年4月25 日的HJ-1B影像作为数据基础,研究与探讨了几何校正对暗像元大气校正算法以及离水辐亮度反演精度...     

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages of the South Brazil: Relationship to water masses and nutrient distributions

Using distributions of benthic Foraminifera and bottom-water variables (depth, salinity, temperature, oxygen, suspended matter, organic matter, phosphate, silicate, nitrite, and nitrate), we investigated movements of water masses on the South Brazilian Shelf (27–30°S) and assessed the seasonality of continental runoff on the distribution of shelf water masses. The data were obtained from water and sediment samples collected in the austral winter of 2003 and austral summer of 2004 in three transects. The terrestrial nutrient input was significantly reduced at stations away from the coast, but high values of nutrients were maintained in subsurface waters due the presence of South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) at greater depths. At shallow sampling stations the influence of freshwater runoff was related to (1) the dominance of calcareous benthic Foraminifera, such as lagoon-related Pseudononion atlanticum, Hanzawaia boueana, Bulimina marginata, Bolivina striatula, Elphidium poeyanum, together with several agglutinated species, including Arenoparrella mexicana, Gaudryina exilis, and Trochammina spp., common in coastal environments subject to wide salinity fluctuations. In contrast, smaller forms and higher species diversity characterized the assemblage at offshore stations. In winter, the presence of Buccella peruviana and Uvigerina peregrina at Santa Marta Cape suggest the possible transport of those species of Subantarctic Shelf Waters (SASW) origin. Foraminifera associated to Subtropical Shelf Water (STSW) were dominated by Globocassidulina subglobosa in both seasons. In summer, the occurrence of U. peregrina in the shallower stations suggested the influence of SACW nutrients brought up by upwelling of deeper waters.     

The impact of land use change on water balance in Zhangye city,China

Land use change has a significant effect on water balance, especially in arid region, such as Northwest China. In this paper, we analyze the effect of land use change on water balance in terms of the amount of water supply and demand from economic perspective. It's the first time to extend the basic 48 sectors input-output table to include water and land accounts that involved into multiple production processes for Zhangye city. We then perform the improved ORANI-G model, a single region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to analyze the effect of land use change on water balance under three scenarios. Subsequently, scenario-based simulation results are interpreted through selected sectors from agricultural, industrial, and service sectors respectively. Finally, the effect of land use change on water balance is analyzed through the difference between business-as-usual and land use unchanged scenarios. The results show that the extent of effect on water balance is different among sectors. Specifically, from the perspective of absolute value, service sectors are the largest, followed by industrial sectors, and the agricultural sectors are the least. Conversely, in terms of percentage change of land use, the largest extent of effect occurs in agricultural sectors. Additionally, with the rapid urbanization and the development of social economy, water balance in industrial sectors and service sectors will be stricken and reconstructed to a new high level. Simulation results also show that agricultural land shrinking will mitigate water scarcity distinctly, which indicates that balance the relationship among different stakeholders is imperative to guarantee water transformation from agricultural sectors to industrial and service sectors.