A fracture-mechanical cellular automaton model of seismicity

We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner.     

地震强度分布不均匀性的摩擦时间依从CA模型

设计一个摩擦时间依从的地震活动性细胞自动机模型（CA），研究产生地震累积频度-震级关系曲线中，出现拐点的地震强度分布不均匀现象的物理原因。外界通过应力加载向模型输入能量，模型的细胞之间存在非线性的相互作用。对比分析规定单个细胞破裂与模型地震之间不同的决定规则时产生的地震序列的累积频度-震级关系，研究结果表明，地震的级联破裂方式是引起累积频度-震级关系在震级较低范围和震级较高范围之间不连续的因素之一。     

Genetic algorithms for determining the parameters of cellular automata in urban simulation

This paper demonstrates that cellular automata(CA) can be a useful tool for analyzing the process of many geographical phenomena.There are many studies on using CA to simulate the evolution of cites.Urban dynamics is determined by many spatial variables.The contribution of each spatial variable to the simulation is quantified by its parameter or weight.Calibration procedures are usually required for obtaining a suitable set of parameters so that the realistic urban forms can be simulated.Each pa-rameter has a unique role in controlling urban morphology in the simulation.In this paper,these pa-rameters for urban simulation are determined by using empirical data.Genetic algorithms are used to search for the optimal combination of these parameters.There are spatial variations for urban dynam-ics in a large region.Distinct sets of parameters can be used to represent the unique features of urban dynamics for various subregions.A further experiment is to evaluate each set of parameters based on the theories of compact cities.It is considered that the better set of parameters can be identified ac-cording to the utility function in terms of compact development.This set of parameters can be cloned to other regions to improve overall urban morphology.The original parameters can be also modified to produce more compact urban forms for planning purposes.This approach can provide a useful ex-ploratory tool for testing various planning scenarios for urban development.     

On the reconstruction of Ito models on the basis of time series with long-tail distributions

Two methods of reconstruction of Ito equations on the basis of time series were analysed. The Sequin method appeared to be completely inadequate in cases of considerable noise. The histogram method required some improvements; therefore, the procedure of smoothing of joint distribution function was proposed and verified. Ito equations may constitute some macroscopic models of phenomena in which microscopic interactions are averaged in an adequate way. Analysis of two geophysical phenomena is presented. For these two examples, Ito equations are constructed and some physical causes of resulting forms of the deterministic and stochastic force are deduced.     

Impact of imperfect rainfall knowledge on the efficiency and the parameters of watershed models

It is crucial to analyze the sensitivity of watershed (rainfall-runoff) models to imperfect knowledge of rainfall input, in order to judge whether or not they are reliable and robust, especially if they are to be used for operational purposes. In this paper, a new approach to sensitivity analysis is proposed, based on a comparison between the efficiency ratings and parameter values of the models and the quality of rainfall input estimate (GORE and BALANCE indexes, assessing the quality of rainfall time distribution and the total depth respectively). Data from three watersheds of increasing size (71, 1120, and 10700 km²), are used to test three watershed models of varying complexity (three-parameter GR3J model and six-parameter modified versions of TOPMODEL and IHACRES).

These models are able to cope with imperfect rainfall input estimates, and react to improvements in rainfall input accuracy by better performance and reduced variability of efficiency. Two different types of model behavior were identified: the models either benefit from improved rainfall data by producing more consistent parameter values, or they are unable to take advantage of the improvements. Although the watershed size seems to be immaterial, the smaller watersheds appear to need more precise areal rainfall estimates (a higher concentration of raingages) to ensure good modeling results.     

A conservative form of the deep convection equations and the efficiency of heat energy conversion in a polytropic mantle model

A wide class of equations is defined for a high pressure and subcritical temperature range of a fluid state whose thermodynamic properties enable the construction of a polytropic model of the mantle. A variant of deep convection equations of the Ogura and Phillips type is substantiated in terms of the polytropic mantle model. The proposed system of the deep convection equations includes fluctuation of the generalized potential temperature, has a quasi-incompressible form, and is transformed into Mihaljan’s system of shallow convection equations with a decrease in the layer depth. This circumstance is of great importance because it validates the use of the same dimensionless parameters as in the shallow convection model. The advantage of the proposed variant of the deep convection equations is its complete conservatism, which allows one to gain constraints on the efficiency of energy conversion in deep mantle processes and the thermal energy power expended on the generation rate of the convection kinetic energy and associated processes. This power is shown to be of the order of half the geothermal flux measured on the Earth’s surface.     

Modal equations of linear structures with viscoelastic dampers

Several types of energy dissipation devices using viscoelastic materials have been proposed to reduce vibration in structures subjected to wind and earthquake excitations. At constant temperature and small strain levels, the mechanical behaviour of Viscoelastic (VE) materials can be described using linear operators. In general, the stiffness and damping matrices of structures using VE devices are frequency dependent; this implies that the classical second-order differential equations for the modal co-ordinates are not a complete model for this type of structures. In this paper, the concept of modal coupling in the frequency domain is addressed, expressions for diagonalizable frequency-dependent stiffness and damping matrices are given, and an iterative technique for the computation of the response of viscoelastic structures is studied. Necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of the technique are given and numerical examples are developed to illustrate the application of the method.     

Testing bedload transport equations with consideration of time scales

Bedload transport is known to be a highly fluctuating temporal phenomenon, even under constant (mean) flow conditions, as a consequence of stochasticity, bedform migration, grain sorting, hysteresis, or sediment supply limitation. Because bedload transport formulas usually refer to a single mean transport value for a given flow condition, one can expect that prediction accuracy (when compared to measurements) will depend on the amplitude and duration of fluctuations, which in turn depend on the time scale used for observations. This paper aims to identify how the time scale considered can affect bedload prediction. This was done by testing 16 common bedload transport formulas with four data sets corresponding to different measurement period durations: (i) highly fluctuating (quasi‐)instantaneous field measurements; (ii) volumes accumulated at the event scale on two small alpine gravel‐bed rivers, potentially affected by seasonal fluctuations; (iii) volumes accumulated at the interannual scale in a meandering gravel bed river, thought to be weakly subject to fluctuations; (iv) time‐integrated flume measurements with nearly uniform sediments. The tests confirmed that the longer the measurement period, the better the precision of the formula's prediction interval. They also demonstrate several consequential limitations. Most threshold formulas are no longer valid when the flow condition is below two times the threshold condition for the largest elements' motion on the bed surface (considering D₈₄). In such conditions, equations either predict zero transport, or largely overestimate the real transport, especially when D₈₄ is high. There is a need for new sediment data collected with highly reliable techniques such as recording slot bedload samplers to further investigate this topic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards petascale simulation of atmospheric circulations with soundproof equations

This paper highlights progress with the development of a petascale implementation of general-purpose high-resolution (nonoscillatory) hydrodynamical simulation code EULAG [Prusa et al. 2008, Comput. Fluids 37, 1193]. The applications addressed are anelastic atmospheric flows in the range of scales from micro to planetary. The new modeldomain decomposition into a three dimensional processor array has been implemented to increase model performance and scalability. The performance of the new code is demonstrated on the IBM BlueGene/L and Cray XT4/XT5 supercomputers. The results show significant improvement of the model efficacy compared to the original decomposition into a two-dimensional processor array in the horizontal — a standard in meteorological models.     

Construction of constant-Q viscoelastic model with three parameters

The popularly used viscoelastic models have some shortcomings in describing relationship between quality factor (Q) and frequency, which is not consistent with the observation data. Based on the theory of viscoelasticity, a new approach to construct constant-Q viscoelastic model in given frequency band with three parameters is developed. The designed model describes the frequency-independence feature of quality factor very well, and the effect of viscoelasticity on seismic wave field can be studied relatively accurate in theory with this model. Furthermore, the number of required parameters in this model has been reduced fewer than that of other constant-Q models, this can simplify the solution of the viscoelastic problems to some extent. At last, the accuracy and application range have been analyzed through numerical tests. The effect of viscoelasticity on wave propagation has been briefly illus-trated through the change of frequency spectra and waveform in several different viscoelastic models.     

Change of collision efficiency with distance in bacterial transport experiments

Understanding the mechanisms of bacterial transport in aquifers is important in developing bioremediation strategies. Collision efficiency (alpha) is one important parameter used in modeling bacterial transport. This study was undertaken to measure change in alpha with distance by performing a bacterial transport experiment in Oyster, Virginia. Following injection of a bacterium, Comamonas sp., into a well, water samples were collected at various distances along the flowpath and injected into columns packed with homogenized South Oyster focus area sediment. Zeta potentials of the bacteria in the samples were measured. Values of alpha were determined at various locations in the field in two ways: based on field breakthrough concentrations at the sampling points and based on column breakthrough concentrations. The alpha values estimated from field breakthrough decreased with distance, whereas those estimated from column breakthrough increased with distance. Bacterial cell surface charge became progressively more negative with distance in the field. We hypothesize that the apparent contradiction between field and column alpha values was caused by differences in the flow of the two systems. Flow in the columns was forced to occur through fine-grained zones of iron and aluminum hydroxide coatings that selectively removed the most negatively charged bacteria. In contrast, in the field, the injected cells did not come into contact with the positively charged coatings because the bulk solution bypassed them due to heterogeneous hydraulic properties. These results suggest that laboratory-based models may underestimate bacterial transport distance in the field. A more realistic approach may be necessary to capture the degree of heterogeneity.     

对比法测试地震计传感参数

笔者提出使用对比法测试地震计传感参数,即灵敏度、敏感轴方向角和倾角等的方案,包括测试数据采集、测试频带选择、传感参数计算方法等,并给出参数结果误差估计方法。为了满足斜轴悬挂、UVW输出地震计参数测试需要,给出此类地震计传感参数测试方案。通过合成数据、振动台检验验证,批量地震计参数重复测试证明该测试方法精度高、可信、可靠。对比法既适用于大批量地震仪器参数测试,也适用于地震台站现场,在不影响台站日常观测情况下,对单个地震计参数进行测试,其测试条件要求不高,操作简单、快捷,是测试生产、观测中地震计传感参数的一种可行办法。     

Numerical resolution of well-balanced shallow water equations with complex source terms

This paper presents a well-balanced numerical scheme for simulating frictional shallow flows over complex domains involving wetting and drying. The proposed scheme solves, in a finite volume Godunov-type framework, a set of pre-balanced shallow water equations derived by considering pressure balancing. Non-negative reconstruction of Riemann states and compatible discretization of slope source term produce stable and well-balanced solutions to shallow flow hydrodynamics over complex topography. The friction source term is discretized using a splitting implicit scheme. Limiting value of the friction force is derived to ensure stability. This new numerical scheme is validated against four theoretical benchmark tests and then applied to reproduce a laboratory dam break over a domain with irregular bed profile.     

Correlation of JMA instrumental seismic intensity with strong motion parameters

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity (I_JMA) has been used as a measure of strong shaking for many years in Japan, and it necessitates to know the correlation between the JMA seismic intensity and other strong motion indices, e.g. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and Spectrum Intensity (SI). In this study, two strong motion data sets were selected; in which, the first set consists of 879 three‐components non‐liquefied records selected from 13 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan, the United States, and Taiwan, and the second set consists of 17 liquefied records selected from 7 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan and the United States. The JMA seismic intensity and other ground motion indices were calculated using the selected data sets. The relationships between the JMA seismic intensity and PGA, PGV, and SI were then derived performing a two‐stage linear regression analysis. Results from the analysis show that the JMA instrumental seismic intensity shows higher correlation with SI than PGA or PGV, and it shows the highest correlation with the parameters such as the combination of PGA and SI or the product of PGA and SI. The obtained relationships are also compared with the ones obtained by other studies, which may be useful for the disaster management agencies in Japan and deployment of new SI‐sensors that monitor both PGA and SI. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivatives of reflection point coordinates with respect to model parameters

The motivation for this paper is to provide expressions for first-order partial derivatives of reflection point coordinates, taken with respect to model parameters. Such derivatives are expected to be useful for processes dealing with the problem of estimating velocities for depth migration of seismic data.The subject of the paper is a particular aspect of ray perturbation theory, where observed parameters—two-way reflection time and horizontal components of slowness, are constraining the ray path when parameters of the reference velocity model are perturbed. The methodology described here is applicable to general rays in a 3D isotropic, heterogeneous medium. Each ray is divided into a shot ray and a receiver ray, i.e., the ray portions between the shot/receiver and the reflection point, respectively. Furthermore, by freezing the initial horizontal slowness of these subrays as the model is perturbed,elementary perturbation quantities may be obtained, comprising derivatives of ray hit positions within theisochrone tangent plane, as well as corresponding time derivatives. The elementary quantities may be estimated numerically, by use of ray perturbation theory, or in some cases, analytically. In particular, when the layer above the reflection point is homogeneous, explicit formulas can be derived. When the elementary quantities are known,reflection point derivatives can be obtained efficiently from a set of linear expressions.The method is applicable for a common shot, receiver or offset data sorting. For these gather types, reflection point perturbationlaterally with respect to the isochrone is essentially different. However, in theperpendicular direction, a first-order perturbation is shown to beindependent of gather type.To evaluate the theory, reflection point derivatives were estimated analytically and numerically. I also compared first-order approximations to true reflection point curves, obtained by retracing rays for a number of model perturbations. The results are promising, especially with respect to applications in sensitivity analysis for prestack depth migration and in velocity model updating.     

6级左右历史地震震源参数的模拟估计

本文借鉴直接拟合烈度数据点和枚举震源参数的做法,设计了一种利用烈度资料估计6级左右历史地震震源参数的方法.该方法对震源参数所有可能的组合进行枚举,采用地震波场模拟计算转换的理论烈度值,利用模型选择方法评估各可能的震源参数组合模型与历史破坏记录推断的地震烈度数据点的拟合程度,对震源参数做出估计.该方法充分考虑到历史资料相对稀少对震源参数估计的影响,以多种震源参数估计结果和相应权重值来定量化表示估计的不确定性.通过对给定震中位置、震源深度和滑动角的Bootstrap数值恢复检测与2006年美国Parkfield 6.0级地震实例的测试,表明该方法得出的震源参数估计结果具有统计一致性和一定的无偏性.将该方法应用于1882年河北深县6级地震的震源参数估计,结果显示东西向旧城北断层或何庄断层及北东东走向的深西断层为深县地震的发震构造的可能性较大.     

融合空间物理参数的小样本极光涡旋自动分类研究

复杂的空间物理过程导致极光出现各类复杂的形态.极光形态的自动分类有助于分析极光发生机制以及了解空间物理过程.当前的极光分类主要采用传统的机器学习或深度学习的方法, 需要大数据作为支撑.但在实际发生的极光事件中, 一些事件相比其他极光事件出现频率小(如极光涡旋), 这样的事件是小样本事件.本文提出一种基于注意力机制, 结合空间物理参数信息的小样本极光事件分类方法.从北极黄河站2003—2017年全天空极光数据集中, 构建了一个有85个极光涡旋序列的实验数据集.利用该方法, 对极光涡旋这一类特殊小样本极光事件进行分类研究.研究结果显示, 加入空间物理参数有助于极光涡旋的分类, 分类准确率从56.37%提升到66.25%, 同时也表明空间环境参数对极光涡旋的产生有着明显的调制作用.

     

Measuring water use efficiency of Eucalypt trees with chambers and micrometeorological techniques

Enclosure appears to be the only feasible way to examine the gas exchange of small groups of trees or to answer questions about the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ on the assimilation, evaporation and water use efficiency of forests. To be effective, enclosures must necessarily change the microclimate, but few studies have been made of the consequences. In this paper, the assimilation, evaporation and water use efficiency of a community of Eucalyptus trees inside a ventilated chamber are compared with the same attributes for the surrounding forest. Assimilation and evaporation for the chamber were measured by the depletion in CO₂ and the enrichment in water vapour of air passing through the chamber. For the forest, assimilation and evaporation were determined by micrometeorological techniques based on the energy balance, and for CO₂, additional chamber measurements of the soil effiux. Water use efficiencies were calculated as the ratio of mol CO₂ assimilated to mol water evaporated. There are some important microclimatic differences between chamber and forest: net radiation is reduced by about 30% in the chamber, the vapour pressure deficit of the chamber air is lower, and the light climate there tends to be diffuse rather than direct. Despite these differences, evaporation rates for both chamber and forest were generally similar, perhaps due to compensating effects in the chamber from higher boundary layer conductances (because of greater ventilation rates) and higher stomatal conductances (because of increased humidity). However, assimilation rates and water use efficiencies were markedly different for the two communities in clear sky conditions, with higher values of both being recorded in the chamber for most of the daylight hours. Only on cloudy days, when the light climate was diffuse in both chamber and forest, were similar assimilation rates and water use efficiencies observed. This behaviour seems to be attributable in part to the light climate in the chamber being predominantly diffuse and that in the forest predominantly direct. Diffuse light enhances the photosynthesis of lower leaves in the canopy. This contention is supported by model calculations of canopy assimilation under diffuse and direct radiation which produced qualitatively the same light response functions as observed for chamber and forest. The study suggests that the use of chambers for exploring questions of forest productivity and water use efficiency must be circumspect. The act of enclosure, by itself, can change the daily water use efficiency of the tree community by as much as 50%.     

Assessment of uncertainty associated with the estimation of well catchments by moment equations

Non-local stochastic moment equations are used successfully to analyze groundwater flow in randomly heterogeneous media. Here we present a moment equations-based approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimation of well catchments. Our approach is based on the development of a complete second order formalism which allows obtaining the first statistical moments of the trajectories of conservative solute particles advected in a generally non-uniform groundwater flow. Approximate equations of moments of particles’ trajectories are then derived on the basis of a second order expansion in terms of the standard deviation of the aquifer log hydraulic conductivity. Analytical expressions are then obtained for the predictors of locations of mean stagnation points, together with their associated uncertainties. We implement our approach on heterogeneous media in bounded two-dimensional domains, with and without including the effect of conditioning on hydraulic conductivity information. The impact of domain size, boundary conditions, heterogeneity and non-stationarity of hydraulic conductivity on the prediction of a well catchment is explored. The results are compared against Monte Carlo simulations and semi-analytical solutions available in the literature. The methodology is applicable to both infinite and bounded domains and is free of distributional assumptions (and so applies to both Gaussian and non-Gaussian log hydraulic conductivity fields) and formally includes the effect of conditioning on available information.