Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

Reactions of alkoxy radicals under atmospheric conditions: The relative importance of decomposition versus reaction with O2

The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O₂ of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O₂ versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(H_{decomposition}–H_{O 2 reaction}), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O₂ at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], the O₂ reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol^–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.     

A non-linear climate oscillator controlled by biogeochemical cycling in the ocean: an alternative model of Quaternary ice age cycles

A new, biogeochemical model of ice age cycles is developed and applied which explains major features of climate variations in the late Quaternary —rapid ice age terminations, large glacial-interglacial amplitudes and 100-kyr cycles — in a way consistent with the paleorecord. Existing models which invoke non-linear, ice-sheet-earth-crust dynamics to explain ice age cycles are not consistent with simultaneous terminations in both hemispheres and other phase relationships implied by the paleorecord. The present model relates climate change to oscillations of oceanic primary (new) production controlled by the availability of inorganic nitrogen. Large oscillations follow shelf erosion events triggered by small sea-level drops. These drops are due to glacial buildup associated with a minimum in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Rapid global warming at terminations is initiated by open ocean denitrification events leading to new production crashes and rapid modification of atmospheric trace gas concentrations (CO₂, DMS, N₂O). Other feedbacks of the land-ice-atmosphere-ocean system control the rest of the climate cycle. 100-kyr cycles derive from orbital pacemaking of the strong, low-frequency model response. Results suggest that the climate regime transition near 800 kyr B.P. may be related to changes in the continental shelf slope, that existing chronologies based on orbital tuning may need to be revised and that temporary increases in atmospheric N₂O concentrations at terminations, due to the denitrification events, may have caused significant greenhouse warming. A spike of elevated N₂O concentration at terminations may be recorded in polar ice.     

Stability Analysis of the Climate-Vegetation System in the Northern High Latitudes

The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudesis analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-dimensional model of the climate system, GENESIS-IBIS, and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2 andMoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60–70° N, although positive, is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibriumin the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO₂ climate.EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However, the climate sensitivity to tree cover, T_F, exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2, T_F islower for doubled CO₂ climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance ofthe hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs, T_F is higher for low tree fraction than for high treefraction, mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree coveris reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on T_F: T_F is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO₂ forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20thcentury. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first halfof the 21st century, when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate.     

Diurnal variation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in complex terrain at Geysers,Cal.

Horizontal diffusion in the surface layer is dependent on the standard deviation of wind direction fluctuations . Diurnal variation of this parameter in complex terrain was studied for the July 1979 Geysers, Cal., experiment using data from a network of 11 short meteorological towers in the 25 km² Anderson Creek watershed Valley side slopes are roughly 20 ° and maximum terrain difference is about 1 km.Values of for wind directions sampled for one hour at a height of 10 m are about 35 ° during the daytime. They slowly decrease to about 20 ° by 8 to 10 p.m. as stability increases but wind speeds are still relatively high. After 10 p.m. the drainage flow sets in at most stations, with speeds of 1 to 2 m s^-1, and average increases to about 30° during the period 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. In general, highest values of at night are associated with lowest values of wind speed and greatest static stability. This enhancement of by the terrain suggests that horizontal diffusion at night always conforms to that expected during nearly neutral stabilities. That is, Pasquill class D diffusion applies to the horizontal component all night in complex terrain.     

The role of land surface dynamics in glacial inception: a study with the UVic Earth System Model

The first results of the UVic Earth System Model coupled to a land surface scheme and a dynamic global vegetation model are presented in this study. In the first part the present day climate simulation is discussed and compared to observations. We then compare a simulation of an ice age inception (forced with 116 ka BP orbital parameters and an atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 240 ppm) with a preindustrial run (present day orbital parameters, atmospheric [CO₂] = 280 ppm). Emphasis is placed on the vegetations response to the combined changes in solar radiation and atmospheric CO₂ level. A southward shift of the northern treeline as well as a global decrease in vegetation carbon is observed in the ice age inception run. In tropical regions, up to 88% of broadleaf trees are replaced by shrubs and C₄ grasses. These changes in vegetation cover have a remarkable effect on the global climate: land related feedbacks double the atmospheric cooling during the ice age inception as well as the reduction of the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic. The introduction of vegetation related feedbacks also increases the surface area with perennial snow significantly.     

On the temperature coefficient of PCO 2 in seawater

The commonly reported temperature coefficient of P. the equilibrium partial pressure of CO₂, is (P/T) _A,C ,which is about 15 ppm/°C, or 5% of the atmospheric partial pressure of CO₂. This coefficient, however, applies only to deep water, not to surface water which can exchange CO₂ with the atmosphere. The coefficient (P/T) _A,C ,, where designates constancy of the sum of atmospheric and surface-ocean CO₂, is the appropriate value for air-sea exchange. Numerical values are mass-dependent because the depth of the exchanging ocean layer must be specified. For a 100-m surface layer, the value is ca. 1.5 ppm/°C, or 0.5% of ambient CO₂. Editor's Note:In view of the interdisciplinary importance of the carbon dioxide-climate problem, this note on seawater chemistry should be of interest to specialists beyond the discipline of ocean chemistry.     

Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use,climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the thicketization of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO₂ are not cause and effect.Please direct all correspondence to the senior author.     

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

Summary The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a business as usual emissions scenario CO₂ concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO₂ arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO₂ in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.     

Analytical solutions for the Ekman layer

The PBL equation that governs the transition from the constant-stress surface layer to the geostrophic wind in a neutrally stratified atmosphere for which the eddy viscosityK(z) is assumed to vary smoothly from the surface-layer value U _*z (0.4,U _*=friction velocity,z=elevation) to the geostrophic asymptoteK _GU _*d forzd is solved through an expansion in fd/U _*1 (f=Coriolis parameter). The resulting solution is separated into Ekman's constant-K solution an inner component that reduces to the classical logarithmic form forzd and isO() relative to the Ekman component forzd. The approximationKU _*d is supported by the solution of Nee and Kovasznay's phenomenological transport equation forK(z), which yieldsK–U _*d exp(–z/d), where is an empirical constant for which observation implies, 1. The parametersA andB in Kazanskii and Monin's similarity relation forG/U _* (G=geostrophic velocity) are determined as functions of . The predicted values ofG/U _* and the turning angle are in agreement with the observed values for the Leipzig wind profile. The predicted value ofB based on the assumption of asymptotically constantK is 4.5, while that based on the Nee-Kovasznay model is 5.1; these compare with the observed value of 4.7 for the Leipzig profile. A thermal wind correction, an asymptotic solution for arbitraryK(z) and 1, and an exact (unrestricted ) solution forK(z)=U _*d[1–exp(–z/d)] are developed in appendices.     

On geoengineering and the CO2 problem

The problem of CO₂ control in the atmosphere is tackled by proposing a kind of fuel cycle for fossil fuels where CO₂ is partially or totally collected at certain transformation points and properly disposed of.CO₂ is disposed of by injection into suitable sinking thermohaline currents that carry and spread it into the deep ocean that has a very large equilibrium capacity.The Mediterranean undercurrent entering the Atlantic at Gibraltar has been identified as one such current; it would have sufficient capacity to deal with all CO₂ produced in Europe even in the year 2100.     

A study of the seasonal migration of ITCZ and the quasi-periodic oscillations in a simple monsoon system using an energy balance model

Summary A zonally averaged global energy balance model with feedback mechanisms was constructed to simulate (i) the poleward limits of ITCZ over the continent and over the ocean and (ii) a simple monsoon system as a result of differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Three numerical experiments were performed with lower boundary as (1) global continent, (2) global ocean and (3) continent-ocean, with freezing latitudes near the poles. Over the continent, midlatitude deserts were found and the ITCZ migrates 25° north and south with seasons. Over a global swamp ocean results do not show migration of ITCZ with time but once the ocean currents are introduced the ITCZ migrates 5° north and south with seasons. It was found that the seasonal migration of ITCZ strongly depends on the meridional distribution of the surface temperature. It was also found that continent influences the location of the oceanic ITCZ. In the tropics northward progression of quasi-periodic oscillations called events are found during the pre- and post-monsoon periods with a period of 8 to 15 days. This result is consistent with the observed quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical region. Northward propagation of the surface temperature perturbation appears to cause changes in the sensible heat flux which in turn causes perturbations in vertical velocity and latent heat flux fields.List of Symbols vertical average - ₀ zonal average - vertical mean of the zonal average - _0s zonal average at the surface - _0a zonal average at 500 mb level - latitude We now define the various symbols used in the model rate of atmospheric heating due to convective cloud formation (K/sec) - dp/dt (N/m²/sec) - density - potential temperature (K) - rate of rotation of the earth (rad/sec) - empirical constant - humidity mixing ratio - ^* saturated humidity mixing ratio - opacity of the atmosphere - ₁,₂ factors for downward and upward effective black body long wave radiation from the atmosphere - Stefan-Boltzmann constant - emissivity of the surface - _D subsurface temperature (K) - a specific volume - _0xs ,_0ys eastward and northward components of surface frictional stress - ^* vertical velocity at the top of the boundary layer (N/m²/sec) - P Thickness of the boundary layer (mb) - nondimensional function of pressure - P pressure - P _a pressure of the model atmosphere (N/m²) - P _s pressure at the surface (N/m²) - t time (sec) - U eastward wind speed (m/sec) - V northward wind speed (m/sec) - surface water availability - T absolute temperature (K) - heat addition due to water phase changes - g acceleration due to gravity (m²/sec) - a radius of the earth (m) - R gas constant for dry air (J/Kg/K) - C _p specific heat of air at constant pressure (J/Kg/K) - k R/C _p - L latent heat of condensation (J/Kg) - f coriolis parameter (rad/sec) - H _s H _0s ⁽¹⁾ +H _0s ⁽²⁾ +H _0s ⁽³⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of vertical heat fluxes per unit surface area, directed toward the surface - H _a H _0a ⁽¹⁾ +H _0a ⁽²⁾ +H _0a ⁽³⁾ +H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of heat additions to the atmospheric column per unit horizontal area by all processes - H _0s ⁽¹⁾ ,H _0a ⁽¹⁾ heat flux due to short wave radiation - H _0s ⁽²⁾ ,H _0a ⁽²⁾ heat flux due to long wave radiation - H _0s ⁽³⁾ ,H _0a ⁽³⁾ heat flux due to small scale convection - H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to evaporation - H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to condensation - H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ heat flux due to subsurface conduction and convection - e ^* saturation vapor pressure - R solar constant (W/m²) - r _a albedo of the atmosphere - r _s albedo of the surface - b ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - c ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - e ₂ nondimensional empirical constant - f ₂ empirical constant (J/m₂/sec) - factor proportional to the conductive capacity of the surface medium - a _s constant used in Sellers model - b _s positive constant of proportionality used in the Sellers model (kg m²/J/sec²) - K _HT coefficient for eddy diffusivity of heat (m²/sec) - K _HE exchange coefficient for water vapor (m²/sec) - h depth of the water column (m) - z height (m) - V _0ws meridional component of surface current (m/sec) - n cloud amount - G _0,n long wave radiation form the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - B ₀ long wave radiation from the surface (W/m²) - S _0,n short wave radiation from the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - A _n albedo factor for a cloud amount n - R _f1 large scale rainfall (mm/day) - R _f2 small scale rainfall (mm/day) With 22 Figures     

The ‘ultimate objective’ of the framework convention on climate change requires a new approach in climate change research

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ultimate objective is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ultimate objective level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.     

Numerical integration errors in calculated tropospheric photodissociation rate coefficients

Tropospheric photodissociation rate coefficients (J values) were calculated for NO₂, O₃, HNO₂, CH₂O, and CH₃CHO using high spectral resolution (0.1 mm wavelength increments), and compared to the J values obtained with numerically degraded resolution (=1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 nm, and several commonly used nonuniform grids). Depending on the molecule, substantial errors can be introduced by the larger increments. Thus for =10 nm, errors are less than 1% for NO₂, less than 2% for HNO₂, +6.5% to -16% for CH₂O, -6.9% to +24% for CH₃CHO, and -24% to +110% for O₃. The errors for CH₂O arise from the fine structure of its absorption spectrum, and are prevalently negative (underestimate of J). The errors for O₃, and to a lesser extent for CH₃CHO, arise mainly from under-resolving the overlap of the molecular action spectrum and the tropospheric actinic flux in the wavelength region of stratospheric ozone attenuation. The sign of those errors depends on whether the actinic flux is averaged onto the grid before or after the radiative transfer calculation. In all cases studied, grids with 2 nm produced errors no larger than 5%.     

Atmospheric response to deep-sea injections of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide

The possibility of controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide accumulation and attendant climatic effects from fossil-fuel burning by diverting a fraction of the combustion product and injecting it into the deep-ocean, as proposed by Marchetti, is analyzed using an atmosphere/mixed layer/diffusive deep-ocean model for the carbon cycle. The model includes the nonlinear buffering of CO₂ at the air/sea interface, and considers the long term trends associated with consuming an assumed fossil-fuel reserve equivalent to 7.09 × 10¹⁵ kg carbon as a logistic function of time as in the projections of Siegenthaler and Oeschger, except that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are computed for five alternate strategies: (a) 100% injected into atmosphere, (b) 50% injected at oceanic depth of 1500 m and 50% into atmosphere, (c) 50% injected at sea floor (4000 m) and 50% into atmosphere, (d) 100% at 1500 m depth and (e) 100% at sea floor. Since no carbon leaves the system, all runs approached the same post-fossil fuel equilibrium after several thousand years, C _a - 1150 ppm, almost four times the pre-fossil fuel value (- 300 ppm). But the transient response of these cases showed a marked variation ranging from a peak overshoot value of 2800 ppm in the year 2130 for 100% atmospheric injection to a slight decrease to the pre-fossil fuel 300 ppm lasting till 2300 with a subsequent slow approach to equilibrium for the 100% deep-ocean injection. The implications of these results for an oceanic injection strategy to mitigate the climatic impact of fossil-fuel CO₂ is discussed, as are the ingredients of a second generation carbon cycle model for carrying out such forecasts on an engineering design basis.     

Comparing the Correlative Holdridge Model to Mechanistic Biogeographical Models for Assessing Vegetation Distribution Response to Climatic Change

A well-established and widely used correlative climate-vegetation model (Holdridge Life Zone model) was compared to three mechanistic simulation models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary climate and a set of future climates prescribed by three Global Circulation Model experiments. Output from the mechanistic models were from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) intercomparison. Holdridge modeling approaches, using a Simple implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature and precipitation alone) or a Full implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature, precipitation, altitudinal region, latitudinal belt, and transitional vegetation zones), represented current potential natural U.S. vegetation poor to fair, respectively. The more sophisticated mechanistic models were superior at reproducing potential vegetation under current climate compared to Holdridge, although there was significant variability among these models. The Holdridge implementations generally showed similar or greater climate sensitivity with respect to spatial redistribution of vegetation compared to the mechanistic models run both with and without doubled CO₂ levels; however, the sensitivity of the Holdridge model depended on the implementation. Reduced sensitivity of the mechanistic models arises from direct (physiological) CO₂ effects and other compensating feedbacks not captured by the Holdridge model. The greater degree of physical realism in the mechanistic models makes them the model class of choice for climate impact assessment. However, under circumstances of limited data availability, computation resources, and access to mechanistic models and model expertise, simple correlational models such as Holdridge may be the only method that can be applied. The paper makes some recommendations on the use of the Holdridge model for impact assessment if it is the only available model.     

Choosing a Stabilization Target for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

The choice of stabilization target for CO₂ concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system; the forcings that might arise from non-CO₂ gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO₂ concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO₂ gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.     

Effect of finite sampling on atmospheric spectra

The effect of a finite averaging time on variances is well known, but its effect on power spectra is less clearly understood. We present numerical solutions for the spectral distortion arising from sampling over a finite time interval T and show that the commonly used filter function (1 – sinc²f T), valid for variances, is a reasonable approximation for power spectra only when T 10 _m , where f is the cyclic frequency, and _m is the dominant time scale of the process. Our results exhibit an increasingly steeper low-frequency roll-off as T decreases relative to _m , indicating that the measured spectrum is subject to a greater suppression of the lower frequencies (f > 1/T) than predicted by (1 – sinc²f T). This suppression is, in a sense, compensated by an overestimation of spectral estimates in the frequency range f 1/T.     

Effects of heat and water vapor transport on eddy covariance measurement of CO2 fluxes

Flux densities of carbon dioxide were measured over an arid, vegetation-free surface by eddy covariance techniques and by a heat budget-profile method, in which CO₂ concentration gradients were specified in terms of mixing ratios. This method showed negligible fluxes of CO₂, consistent with the bareness of the experimental site, whereas the eddy covariance measurements indicated large downward fluxes of CO₂. These apparently conflicting observations are in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent theory which predicts that whenever there are vertical fluxes of sensible or latent heat, a mean vertical velocity is developed. This velocity causes a mean vertical convective mass flux (= _cw for CO₂, in standard notation). The eddy covariance technique neglects this mean convective flux and measures only the turbulent flux _c w. Thus, when the net flux of CO₂ is zero, the eddy covariance method indicates an apparent flux which is equal and opposite to the mean convective flux, i.e., _c w = – _c w. Corrections for the mean convective flux are particularly significant for CO₂ because _cw and _c w are often of similar magnitude. The correct measurement of the net CO₂ flux by eddy covariance techniques requires that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat be measured as well.     

Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2

The change in the Earth's equilibrium global mean surface temperature induced by a doubling of the CO₂ concentration has been estimated as 0.2 to 10 K by surface energy balance models, 0.5 to 4.2 K by radiative-convective models, and 1.3 to 4.2 K by general circulation models. These wide ranges are interpreted and quantified here in terms of the direct radiative, forcing of the increased CO₂, the response of the climate system in the absence of feedback processes, and the feedbacks of the climate system. It is the range in the values of these feedbacks that leads to the ranges in the projections of the global mean surface warming. The time required for a CO₂-induced climate change to reach equilibrium has been characterized by an e-folding time _e with values estimated by a variety of climate/ocean models as 10 to 100 years. Analytical and numerical studies show that this wide range is due to the strong dependence of _e on the equilibrium sensitivity of the climate model and on the effective vertical thermal diffusivity of the ocean model. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation for doubled CO₂ suggestes that, as a result of the transport of the CO₂-induced surface heating into the interior of the ocean, _e 50 to 100 years. Theoretical studies for a realistic CO₂ increase between 1850 and 1980 indicate that this sequestering of heat into the ocean's interior is responsible for the concomittant warming being only about half that which would have occurred in the absence of the ocean. These studies also indicate that the climate sytem will continue to warm towards its as yet unrealized equilibrium temperature change, even if there is no further increase in the CO₂ concentration.