一个改进的沙尘天气数值预测系统及其模拟试验

在中尺度气象模式最新版本MM5V3.7的基础上,通过与一个起沙模式的耦合,建立了一个新的中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP/CAS)沙尘天气数值预测系统(IAPS 2.0).该系统与IAP原有的沙尘天气数值预测系统(IAPS 1.0)最主要的差异在于气象模式中陆面过程模式的改进.利用改进前后两个版本的预测系统对2002年4月发生在我国北方地区的两次较强沙尘(暴)过程进行了数值模拟,并与观测实况进行了比较,结果表明改进的系统对沙尘天气的预测能力比改进前的版本有显著的改进,这主要是由于新的陆面模式改善了地表土壤湿度的模拟,进而改进了决定起沙与否的关键因子临界摩擦速度的模拟,从而提高了预测系统对起沙范围和强度的模拟效果.总的说来,采用了更为先进的Noah陆面模式的IAP沙尘(暴)天气数值预测系统对中国北方春季沙尘(暴)天气过程具有更好的模拟能力.     

非结构网格空气质量模式对东亚强沙尘暴的初步模拟研究

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所自主研发的嵌套网格空气质量数值预报模式(NAQPMS)和英国帝国理工学院应用计算与建模小组(AMCG)研制的有限元流体模式(Fluidity),构建了非结构网格沙尘传输模式(Fluidity-Dust),并模拟再现了2010年3月19~22日东亚强沙尘暴整个暴发、演变的三维立体动态过程,从整体上对这次沙尘事件有了全新的直观认识和了解。通过利用FY-2D卫星沙尘反演资料及MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星反演的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)资料,可对模拟结果进行整体上对比验证;同时,利用中国9个城市站点的PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)地面观测资料以及日本多个站点的激光雷达资料,逐一对比分析了不同地区PM10的时空分布以及沙尘传输经过时的垂直分布情况;并与NAQPMS模式的沙尘模拟结果进行了模式间的对比分析。对比结果均表明:该模式具有较好的模拟能力,能很好地模拟再现整个沙尘暴过程,为今后进一步运用自适应变网格技术以实现对沙尘暴的高精度追踪模拟奠定了基础。不同模式比较是量化模拟不确定性的重要方法。以往沙尘输送模式比较研究表明:起沙量模拟的不确定性是沙尘暴数值模拟的最大不确定来源。本文通过两个具有相同起沙方案的模式对同一沙尘事件的模拟,发现不同的平流方案以及不同的沉降计算也会对沙尘过程模拟产生重要影响。     

数值模式垂直分辨率对台风大涡模拟的影响

随着计算能力的提升,台风数值模拟大量采用了大涡尺度模拟,其水平分辨率已达到数10 m的量级,而垂直分辨率提升不大,其问题是数值模式的垂直分辨率对台风大涡模拟的影响如何?因此,本文利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式开展理想台风模拟,在不同的模式垂直层次(42,69和90层)...     

基于不同参数化方案的高速公路大雾过程的数值模拟试验

为了比较不同微物理方案、边界层方案和陆面方案对大雾过程模拟效果的影响,本文利用WRF模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对江苏省高速公路网2011—2013年发生的21场大雾过程进行了数值模拟,探讨了模式不同参数化方案对大雾过程数值模拟的影响,确定了基于模式输出结果的成雾判别指标。研究结果表明:(1)综合考虑微物理方案、边界层方案和陆面方案对地面气象要素、高空温度及雾区分布等要素的影响,微物理方案选用WDM6方案,边界层方案选用QNSE方案,陆面方案选用SLAB方案时,雾的数值模拟效果最优;(2)在最优参数化方案设置下,兼顾气象业务部门有限的计算资源和较高的模式垂直分辨率,对21个大雾个例发生的大气背景进行数值模拟和诊断分析后发现:江苏省境内雾的预报指标应为模式最低层(30~40 m高度)液态含水量0.015 g·kg~(-1),或2 m相对湿度95%,且10 m风速3 m·s~(-1)。     

一个对流边界层中的随机扩散模式

通过对对流边界层(CBL)湍流结构的分析,首次提出用两种不同尺度的湍流模拟CBL中的铅直扩散.在此基础上发展了一个随机扩散模式,并用它模拟了典型对流条件下两种高架连续点源的扩散.与Willis水槽模拟和Lamb等人数值模拟以及CONDORS计划外场试验的结果的比较表明,本模式能成功地模拟CBL中的横向积分浓度.与其它数值模式相比,还具有输入参数少、计算量极小和更加简单实用的优点.     

丘陵山地总辐射的计算模式

本文根据对丘陵山地地形参数(平均坡向、坡度和地形遮蔽角)的数值模拟结果,应用试验观测资料,较详细地讨论了山地总辐射的理论计算模式。文中主要讨论了三个问题:山地总辐射理论模式的建立;模式参数的数值试验;模式在大别山南部局部地区的模拟结果及其分析。结果表明,山区总辐射受地形影响非常明显。本模式原则上适用于任何地区各种地形下总辐射的数值模拟。     

球面长波模式的设计和应用

本文介绍一两层准地转的球面长波谱模式(LWM)。它包括非绝热加热、地表摩擦和山脉分布。试验表明,由于引进瞬变涡旋输送特征参数化,LWM较低阶谱模式(LOM)有显著改进。它除具有LOM经济简明的优点外,还更合理地描述大气的能量循环和角动量平衡,更准确地模拟纬向西风和定常波。因而适于理论研究和数值模拟。     

北极海冰数值预报的初步研究——基于海冰—海洋耦合模式MITgcm的模拟试验

利用最近发展的MITgcm(麻省理工学院通用环流模式)海冰-海洋耦合模式,以NCEP(美国国家环境预测中心)再分析资料为大气强迫场进行了1992年1月至2009年12月北极海冰数值模拟.结果表明,此模式能很好地模拟卫星观测的北极海冰季节和年际变化,具备很好的北极海冰数值模拟能力.以此为基础,对2009年7月和10月北极...     

一次引发华北和北京沙尘(暴)天气起沙机制的数值模拟研究

在对气象背景场进行诊断分析的基础上,集中对一次沙尘(暴)天气的起沙机制进行了数值模拟.具体做法是先将澳大利亚新南威尔士大学(UNSW)邵亚平博士发展的具有清晰物理概念的起沙数值模式(非参数化方案),与PSU/NCAR的中尺度气象预报模式MM5进行耦合.使用该模式系统,根据陆面状况和大气条件,定量模拟出沙尘(暴)起沙的过程.对2000年4月6～7日发生在华北和北京的一次沙尘暴过程的数值试验结果表明,该模式对沙尘天气的起沙过程有较好的模拟能力.     

数值天气预报的进展和展望

该文系统地回顾了近10—15年来中期数值天气预报在数值模拟,资料同化,业务预报技巧,模式系统误差方面的研究进展。着重介绍了欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)业务预报模式和资料同化系统的主要变化。最后,对数值天气预报的未来前景作一展望。     

大雾消散时间的客观化预报

分析石家庄生成大雾的气象条件以及不利于消散的大气层结和气象要素特征，选取与大雾消散有关的预报因子，由实况资料建立大雾消散时间的线性回归预报方程，并将数值预报结果与实况进行插值订正，做大雾消散时间的客观化预报；分析了自动气象站的气温资料与大雾消散时间的关系，用自动站资料对大雾消散时间进行订正预报。     

DISSIPATION EFFECT ON THE FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS

In the paper,the turbulent dissipation is considered in the model for studying the flow overmountains.The governing equation is a first order ordinary differential equation derived from analgebraic equation without dissipation case.The solution is sensitive to the upstream condition ofdissipation.The dissipation not only reduces the strength of discontinuity but also changes theproperties of the governing equation.In the paper,the qualitative characteristic features of thegoverning equation are discussed.The numerical results with super and sub-critical cases are alsodiscussed in detail.The results show that the turbulent dissipation is an important factor and is notnegligible.     

DISSIPATION EFFECT ON THE FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS*

In the paper,the turbulent dissipation is considered in the model for studying the flow over mountains.The governing equation is a first order ordinary differential equation derived from an algebraic equation without dissipation case.The solution is sensitive to the upstream condition of dissipation.The dissipation not only reduces the strength of discontinuity but also changes the properties of the governing equation.In the paper,the qualitative characteristic features of the governing equation are discussed.The numerical results with super and sub-critical cases are also discussed in detail.The results show that the turbulent dissipation is an important factor and is not negligible.     

Large-Eddy Simulation-Based Retrieval of Dissipation from Coherent Doppler Lidar Data

Accurate estimation of dissipation rate is important in understanding and analyzing turbulent flows found in environment and engineering processes. Many previous studies have focused on measuring the local dissipation rate at a single point or averaged dissipation rate over a suitable area. Since coherent Doppler lidar is capable of providing multi-point measurements covering a large spatial extent, it is well-suited for examining the distribution of dissipation in the atmosphere. In this paper, an approach is presented that is based on retrieving the dissipation rate from coherent Doppler lidar data using large-eddy simulation. Two Coherent Doppler lidars performed range height indicator (RHI) scans of a vertical/cross-barrier plane during the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX). Two-dimensional velocity vectors were retrieved using a least squares method. The velocity vectors retrieved from co-planar RHI scans are used to estimate subgrid scale (SGS) quantities through a known SGS parameterization. For the T-REX datasets analyzed, the dissipation rate was found to increase in the presence of rotors, subrotors, and, as expected, in regions of high wind shear. Owing to the presence of sharper gradients in subrotors, their dissipation rate is generally larger than that of rotors.     

A Surface-Layer Study of the Transport and Dissipation of Turbulent Kinetic Energy and the Variances of Temperature,Humidity and CO$$_$$

We discuss scalar similarities and dissimilarities based on analysis of the dissipation terms in the variance budget equations, considering the turbulent kinetic energy and the variances of temperature, specific humidity and specific CO\(_2\) content. For this purpose, 124 high-frequency sampled segments are selected from the Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence experiment. The consequences of dissipation similarity in the variance transport are also discussed and quantified. The results show that, for the convective atmospheric surface layer, the non-dimensional dissipation terms can be expressed in the framework of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and are independent of whether the variable is temperature or moisture. The scalar similarity in the dissipation term implies that the characteristic scales of the atmospheric surface layer can be estimated from the respective rate of variance dissipation, the characteristic scale of temperature, and the dissipation rate of temperature variance.     

Turbulent dissipation of cold air lake in a basin

Summary Problems of turbulent dissipation of a cold air lake (CAL) and the inversion layer bordering CAL on the upper boundary are presented and studied with the compound model. In wintertime such cold air lakes can persist for days even if rather strong winds are blowing above them. The required conditions for CAL dissipation are removed processes of its formation or maintenance, as well as a sufficiently strong invasion of turbulence in the inversion layer from above down-wards. By this, the inversion layer at first becomes stronger and dissipation is stopped, until the increase of turbulent kinetic energy of the upper flow enables further dissipation. Such turbulent dissipation process is shown by the model for typical conditions and for different initial values of the relevent variables.With 6 Figures     

Convective scaling of the average dissipation rate of temperature variance in the atmospheric surface layer

The flux of sensible heat from the land surface is related to the average rate of dissipation of temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer through the temperature variance budget equation. In many cases it is desirable to estimate the heat flux from measurement or inference of the dissipation rate. Here we study how the dissipation rate scales with atmospheric stability, using three inertial range methods to calculate the dissipation rate: power spectra, second order structure functions, and third order structure functions. Experimental data are analyzed from a pair of field experiments, during which turbulent fluctuations of velocity and temperature were measured over a broad range of neutral and unstable atmospheric flows. It is shown that the temperature dissipation rate scales with a single convective power law continuously from near-neutral to strongly unstable stratification. The dissipation scaling is found to nearly match production in the near-neutral region, but to be consistently lower than production in the more convective regimes. The convective scaling is shown to offer a simplified means of computing sensible heat flux from the dissipation rate of temperature variance.Also at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MarylandAlso at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico.     

Temperature structure in the atmospheric surface layer

Production, transport and dissipation terms in the temperature variance equation have been measured in the atmospheric surface layer. The transport term is, within the experimental uncertainty, negligible. The dissipation term, determined by assuming local isotropy, is approximately equal to production under near-neutral conditions. For moderately unstable conditions, the ratio of production to dissipation is 1.4. The resulting imbalance in the budget is attributed to the inequality between the three components of the dissipation term. The Kolmogorov constant for temperature is found to be about 0.8.     

A Length Scale Defining Partially-Resolved Boundary-Layer Turbulence Simulations

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts at horizontal grid lengths in the range of 100 m to 1 km are now possible. Within this range of grid lengths, the convective boundary layer (CBL) is partially resolved and thus in the so-called ‘grey zone’. For simulations in the grey zone, numerical dissipation sources from both the advection scheme and the subgrid model are likely to be significant. Until now, these effects have not been incorporated fully into our understanding of the grey zone. In order to quantify these effects, a dissipation length scale is defined based on the second moment of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) spectrum. An ensemble of simulations of a CBL are performed using a large-eddy model across the grey-zone resolutions and for a range of subgrid model, advection scheme and vertical grid configurations. The dissipation length scale distinguishes the effects of the different model configurations in the grey zone. In the middle of the boundary layer, the resolved TKE is strongly controlled by the numerical dissipation. This leads to a similarity law for the resolved TKE in the grey zone using the dissipation length scale. A new definition of the grey zone emerges where the inversion depth and dissipation length scale are the same size. This contrasts with the typical definition using the horizontal grid length. At the inversion, however, the variation of the dissipation length scale with grid length is less predictable, reflecting significant challenges for modelling entrainment in the grey zone. The dissipation length scale is thus a simple diagnostic to aid both NWP and large-eddy modellers in understanding the grey zone.     

外源与孤波的相互作用对阻塞形成的影响

利用准地转涡度方程导出包括外源和摩擦耗散的强迫广义KdV-Burgers方程,分析表明,外源和耗散的存在是孤波质量和能量变化的原因,耗散使孤波质量和能量随时间呈指数减小。数值计算结果指出,移动性孤波和外源的相互作用,使孤波移速减小,振幅增大;在无耗散情况下,失谐参数α较小时,由于孤波迅速离开外源强迫区,因此不利于阻塞的形成;小耗散的存在,迫使相互作用过程中孤波在外源强迫区附近来回振荡传播,大大增加相互作用时间,可能是造成外源区附近局地阻塞的一种重要机制。