Landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment using multiple statistical approaches along the Karakoram highway,northern Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a framework of regional connectivity,which will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will have positive impact on Iran,Afghanistan,India,Central Asian Republic,and the region.The surrounding area in CPEC is prone to frequent disruption by geological hazards mainly landslides in northern Pakistan.Comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment are rarely available to utilize for landslide mitigation strategies.This study aims to utilize the high-resolution satellite images to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and subsequently develop landslide susceptibility maps using multiple techniques.The very high-resolution(VHR)satellite images are utilized to develop a landslide inventory using the visual image classification techniques,historic records and field observations.A total of 1632 landslides are mapped in the area.Four statistical models i.e.,frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression were used for landslide susceptibility modeling by comparing the landslide inventory with the topographic parameters,geological features,drainage and road network.The developed landslides susceptibility maps were verified using the area under curve(AUC)method.The prediction power of the model was assessed by the prediction rate curve.The success rate curves show 93%,92.8%,92.7%and 87.4%accuracy of susceptibility maps for frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression,respectively.The developed landslide inventory and susceptibility maps can be used for land use planning and landslide mitigation strategies.     

Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin,Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model

Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.     

Spatial assessment of forest cover and land-use changes in the Hindu-Kush mountain ranges of northern Pakistan

Anthropogenic activities and natural processes are continuously altering the mountainous environment through deforestation, forest degradation and other land-use changes. It is highly important to assess, monitor and forecast forest cover and other land-use changes for the protection and conservation of mountainous environment. The present study deals with the assessment of forest cover and other land-use changes in the mountain ranges of Dir Kohistan in northern Pakistan, using high resolution multi-temporal SPOT-5 satellite images. The SPOT-5 satellite images of years 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 were acquired and classified into land-cover units. In addition, forest cover and land-use change detection map was developed using the classified maps of 2004 and 2013. The classified maps were verified through random field samples and Google Earth imagery (Quick birds and SPOT-5). The results showed that during the period 2004 to 2013 the area of forest land decreased by 6.4%, however, area of range land and agriculture land have increased by 22.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Similarly, barren land increased by 1.1%, whereas, area of snow cover/glacier is significantly decreased by 21.3%. The findings from the study will be useful for forestry and landscape planning and can be utilized by the local, provincial and national forest departments; and REDD+ policy makers in Pakistan.     

Organic geochemistry and source rock potential assessment of Late Paleocene Patala Formation in Margalla Hill Range,North Pakistan

Black shales of the Paleocene Patala Formation are proven source rocks for conventional hydrocarbons in southern Potwar Basin of Pakistan and are assumed to be effective source rocks towards north in the Margalla Hill Range of Pakistan. In this regard, the current study focuses on source rock geochemistry of the Paleocene Patala Formation to assess its source rock potential, organic matter types and thermal maturity levels in the Mar-galla Hill Range of North Pakistan. Source rock generative potential, kerogen types and thermal maturation of the analysed rock samples were unraveled by using Rock-Eval pyrolysis Tmax, TOC (total organic carbon) and vitrinite reflectance ( R0 ) analyses. TOC analysis coupled with S2 yield revealed poor to fair source rock quality encountered within the formation. The pyrolysis Tmax vs Hydrogen Index ( HI) , showed mostly Type Ⅲ kerogen dominated by thermally immature to mature organic matter. The HI and genetic potential is low and revealed poor hydrocarbon generation potential of the formation. The S1 vs TOC plots confirm the indigenous nature of the hydrocarbons hosted by Patala Formation. The vitrinite reflectance outcomes indicated immature to mature source rock beds lying in dry gas zone. The HI and OI signatures and abundance of Type Ⅲ kerogen are indica-ting dominance of terrestrial organic matter within the formation. Overall, the investigated Patala Formation ex-posed at the studied section of Margalla Hill Range, Pakistan acts as a poor source rock unit for liquid hydrocar-bon generation but holds prospects for dry gas generation in the study area.     

Shrinking greenery: Land use and land cover changes in Kurram Agency,Kohi Safid Mountains of north-western Pakistan

Deforestation and other Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes, driven by variety of physical and anthropogenic factors, have altered the mountainous environment. Mountains around the world including northern and north western belts of Pakistan are highly sensitive to deforestation and other LULC changes, which have profound impacts on various sectors of bio-physical and socio-economic systems. Assessment of LULC changes has high significance for protection, conservation and monitoring mountainous environment. The present study is an attempt to assess the landscape changes with particular reference to forest cover depletion in Kurram Agency located in the north western mountain belt of Pakistan. For detailed comparative analysis the study area has been divided into three sections, which coincide with the present administrative divisions of the Agency, i.e., Upper, Lower and Central Kurram. Temporal span of this study covers four decades. In this study, land use map of 1970 and land sat satellite imageries of 1987, 2000 and 2014 were used as spatial data sets. The images were processed and classified into six LULC classes through geospatial packages and change detection maps were prepared for each division and time period. Findings of the study reveal two trends in the four major LULC categories. Forest and rangeland have shrunk, on average, by 15% and 7.5% respectively while, bare soil and rocks outcrops have expanded by 89% and agriculture land by 7.2% in Kurram agency. The water bodies and snow cover have minor fluctuation in its land area. Major causes of shrinking greenery is attributed to high influx of Afghan refugees and high energy demand of growing population. However, with outflow of the refugees from Kurram agency the general trend in forest cover has reverted and deforestation rate has slowed down.     

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.     

Recent snow cover variation in the Upper Indus Basin of Gilgit Baltistan,Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya

Mountainous basins like the Upper Indus Basin(UIB) of Gilgit Baltistan(GB) are dependent on seasonal snowmelt and glacier melt. Monitoring of the snow-covered area(SCA) is not only vital for the overall hydrology of the Indus basin but also important to the sustainable agriculture and hydropower system. The snow-covered area in the UIB of GB was investigated for changes over the last 18 years using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow product. The study area was divided into five elevation zones ranging from 877-8564 meters above sea level(m ASL). In contrast to the global cryosphere related studies, SCA in the UIB is slightly increasing. Elevation based SCA analysis also indicated that SCA is slightly increasing in each elevation zone. However, a significant amount of snow is concentrated in areas above 5000 m ASL. Due to the strong correlation between SCA and precipitation, the precipitation data also follow a similar trend. Analysis of the climatic data suggests a statistically significant increase in total monthly precipitation and relative humidity, a slight decrease in mean monthly temperature and a significant upward tendency in monthly solar irradiance data. All these trends in combination with the increasing trend in global precipitation, winter westerly disturbances and orographic precipitation are the important factors behind the slightly increasing SCA in the study area. Our results though constrained by short observation period mainly contribute to the understanding of advancing snow cover and glaciers in Hindukush Karakoram.     

Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

Glacial debris flows(GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway(KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. Reg CM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline(2011–2020) and future periods(2031–2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2 D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2 D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger highermagnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.     

Using Landsat images to monitor changes in the snow-covered area of selected glaciers in northern Pakistan

Landsat satellite images were used to map and monitor the snow-covered areas of four glaciers with different aspects(Passu: 36.473°N, 74.766°E;Momhil: 36.394°N, 75.085°E; Trivor: 36.249°N,74.968°E; and Kunyang: 36.083°N, 75.288°E) in the upper Indus basin, northern Pakistan, from 1990-2014. The snow-covered areas of the selected glaciers were identified and classified using supervised and rule-based image analysis techniques in three different seasons. Accuracy assessment of the classified images indicated that the supervised classification technique performed slightly better than the rule-based technique. Snow-covered areas on the selected glaciers were generally reduced during the study period but at different rates. Glaciers reached maximum areal snow coverage in winter and premonsoon seasons and minimum areal snow coverage in monsoon seasons, with the lowest snow-covered area occurring in August and September. The snowcovered area on Passu glacier decreased by 24.50%,3.15% and 11.25% in the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. Similarly, the other three glaciers showed notable decreases in snow-covered area during the pre-and post-monsoon seasons; however, no clear changes were observed during monsoon seasons. During pre-monsoon seasons, the eastward-facing glacier lost comparatively more snow-covered area than the westward-facing glacier. The average seasonal glacier surface temperature calculated from the Landsat thermal band showed negative correlations of-0.67,-0.89,-0.75 and-0.77 with the average seasonal snowcovered areas of the Passu, Momhil, Trivor and Kunyang glaciers, respectively, during pre-monsoon seasons. Similarly, the air temperature collected from a nearby meteorological station showed an increasing trend, indicating that the snow-covered area reduction in the region was largely due to climate warming.     

Scarcity within opulence: Water management in the Karakoram Mountains revisited

Water management in general and in the Indus Basin in particular is concerned with the energy-efficient transportation of hydrologically exploitable resources from the upper zone to climatically favourable areas where irrigation helps to supersede arid conditions for the cultivation of crops and watering of meadows. In other words: Human intervention sets the stage for the allocation of water from a wider catchment area in a smaller habitat where this resource is deficient. Emphasis on mountain irrigation practices is counteracted with developments in the forelands where different frame conditions prevail and peculiar development problems occur. In dealing with the importance of water from the mountain regions three dimensions have to be evaluated: 1) natural factors and their validity for the environmental frame conditions and technological adaptation processes; 2) social factors and their impact on culture, economy and equitability; 3) institutional factors and their importance for sustainable growth and for the implementation of development projects. In the study of decentralized irrigation systems in high mountain regions of the Indus Basin a systems theoretical approach values the complexity of interrelationships between different systems elements. Human activities in arid mountain regions are restricted by limiting ecological factors and are characterized by certain utilization and adaptive strategies.     

Forest cover change assessment in conflict-affected areas of northwest Pakistan: the case of swat and shangla districts

This study examines the spatial and temporal forest cover changes in Swat and Shangla districts to understand the deforestation pattern in context of the recent security conflict in these districts. We used multi-resolution satellite images to assess the long term deforestation from 2001 to 2009 and also to identify episodic forest cutting areas appeared during the conflict period of Oct. 2007 - Oct. 2008. There are only 58 ha of deforestation identified during the conflict period while 1268 ha of gross annual deforestation were assessed during last eight years. Most of the deforestation patches persist around the administrative boundaries at sub-district levels (tehsils) which can be attributed to ambiguity in unclear jurisdiction between the forest official. The results highlight that the forest cutting appeared in Swat and Shangla during the conflict period is not as significant when compared with the long term deforestation pattern in the area. On the one side the results of the study are supportive to the picture that emerges from international studies which report high rate of deforestation in the country and on the other side it negates any relation between the security situation and the increasing deforestation in the north western Pakistan. The study concludes that deforestation assessments require verification by independent sources of data, such as satellite imagery to improve our understanding of deforestation processes.     

Socio-economic drivers of deforestation in Roghani Valley,Hindu-Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan

Deforestation and associated ecological disturbances are the issues of global concern.Researchers have investigated a number of driving forces which accelerate the rate of deforestation at local and regional levels.These include poverty,population growth,market demand and prices,political instability,agricultural expansion and changes in property right and ownership regimes.This paper seeks to explore the impacts of population growth,changing tenure system and other socioeconomic factors on the forest cover of Roghani Valley,located in Hindu Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan.The present study is mainly based on information collected through participatory observation,selfadministered interviews and questionnaire survey.Geographical Information System（GIS） database is also used for mapping and quantification.The results reveal that in the past three to four decades the study area has been subjected to severe deforestation and about half of the forest area has been converted into barren land.Thus,the area under natural forests decreased from 2099 to 1444 hectares in four decades.This large-scale deforestation is attributed to both proximate and under lying causes particularly traditional land tenure system and demographic development.Consequently,forest resources have been degraded and a number of plant species have disappeared from the forests of the study area while several others are in the process of disappearance.     

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km~2 and average size of 0.06 km~2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km~2 in 1977 to 127.61 km~2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km~2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km~2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km~2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km~2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km~2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km~2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.     

Forest cover dynamics in Palas Valley Kohistan,Hindu Kush-Himalayan Mountains,Pakistan

Forest cover change in the mountainous region is driven by a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors.The Hindu Kush-Himalayan Mountains has experienced a considerable vegetation cover change due to intensive human activities,such as population growth,proximate causes,accessibility,unstable political situations,government policy failure and poverty.The present study seeks to find out the impact of population growth and road network expansion on forest cover of Palas valley based on remotely sensed data and employing geospatial techniques.Changes in forest cover were determined by classifying time-series satellite images of Landsat and Sentinel 2 A.The images of October 1980,2000,2010 and 2017 were classified into six land cover classes and then the impact of population growth and accessibility on forest cover was analyzed.Furthermore,forest cover and land-use change detection map was prepared using classified images of 1980 and 2017.The data were collected mainly from field visits(ground verification),census reports,Communication and Works Department,Kohistan.Satellite imageries were obtained from the United States Geological Survey’s websites and classified in ERDAS imagine 2014 and ESRI ArcGIS 10.2.1 using supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm.Result of this study revealed that a substantial reduction in forest cover has taken place mainly in the proximity of human settlements.On the average,during the study period,annually more than 460 hectares of forest area has been converted into other uses.     

Recent Changes Occurred in the Terminus of the Debris-covered Bilafond Glacier in the Karakoram Himalayas Using Remotely Sensed Images and Digital Elevation Models (1978-2011)

Recent changes occurred in terminus of the debris-covered Bilafond Glacier in the Karakoram Range in the Himalayas, Northern Pakistan was investigated in this research. Landsat MSS, TM and ETM＋ images were used for this study. Digital elevation models derived from ASTER GDEM and SRTM were also utilized. Visible, infrared and thermal infrared channels were utilized in order to get accurate glacier change maps. Three methods were tried to map this debris-covered glacier in this research. The glacier has been mapped successfully and the changes in the glacier terminus from 1978 to 2011 have been calculated. Manual, semi-automatic and thermal methods were found to give similar results. It was found that the glacier has undergone serious ablation during this period despite of the fact that many of the larger glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Karakoram mountain regions in the Upper Indus Basin were reported to be expanding. The terminus has been moved back about 600 meters during this period and there was an abrupt change in the glacier terminus during 1990-2002. We propose that debris thickness is not the only factor that influences the glacier ablation but the altitude of the debris-covered glacier as well. Many glaciers in the Karakoram region reported to be expanding were having higher altitudes compared to the study area.     

Assessment of glacier stored water in Karakoram Himalaya using satellite remote sensing and field investigation

Karakoram Himalaya(KH) has continental climatic conditions and possesses largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar regions. The melt water from these glaciers is a major contributor to the Indus river. In this study, various methods have been used to estimate the ice volume in the Karakoram Range of glaciers such as Coregistration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation(COSI-Corr) method and Area-Volume relations. Landsat 8 satellite data has been used to generate the ice displacement, velocity and thickness map. Our study for 558 Karakoram glaciers revealed that the average ice thickness in Karakoram is 90 m. Ground Penetrating Radar(GPR) survey has been conducted in one of the KH glacier i.e. Saser La glacier and the collected GPR data is used for the validation of satellite derived thickness map. GPR measured glacier thickness values are found comparable with satellite estimated values with RMSE of 4.3 m. The total ice volume of the Karakoram glaciers is estimated to be 1607±19 km3(1473±17 Gt), which is equivalent to 1473±17 km3 of water equivalent. Present study also covers the analysis of glacier surface displacement, velocity and ice thickness values with reference to glacier mean slope.     

多模型协同下的城郊地区DEM构建方法研究

人类活动对地表的改造使其呈现形态多样化、不连续等特征,此时传统的DEM构建方法难以满足这些区域DEM精度要求。为此,本文提出了一种多模型协同构建DEM的思路,首先按照形态特征和语义信息对地形进行分类,然后对不同类型的地形区域,选择、设计适宜的方法分别进行DEM构建,最后将不同区域构建DEM结果融合拼接形成区域完整的DEM结果。本文选择江苏省南京市城市郊区某区域为实验区,以1:500比例尺地形图为基本数据源进行DEM构建实验。实验结果表明,与传统经典DEM构建方法相比,本文提出的多模型协同的DEM构建方法能够有效表达实验区域不同的地形特征,特别是对于人工改造的地形(如道路、边坡等区域),本文方法构建的DEM其形态精度优势显著;同时,基于验证点法的高程精度分析结果表明,本文方法构建DEM的高程精度亦优于传统DEM构建方法,特别是对于一些形态规则而高程信息相对稀少的区域,以边坡区域为例,经典DEM构建法平均误差均超过5 m,而本文构建结果平均误差为0.26 m,精度优势非常明显。研究表明本文提出的多模型协同的DEM构建方法适用于人类活动改造或显著影响的区域的DEM构建。     

Integrated assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan

Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.     

中巴公路沿线冰川泥石流的形成与危险性评估

中巴公路是一条连接中国西北部与巴基斯坦北部的高原公路。根据野外考察与统计分析,选取暴发频率、流域面积、堆
积扇体积、估计一次冲出量、植被覆盖率、沟道坡角及海拔7个主要控制因素,采用多因子综合评价法对公路沿线的8条典型冰川
泥石流沟的危险性进行了评估,并将评估结果与它们在2010及2011的两年里实际发生冰川泥石流情况进行了对比。对比结果
表明:多因素综合评估法评估的中巴公路沿线典型冰川泥石流沟的危险等级与实际发生情况吻合较好,因而多因素综合评估法在
灾害危险性评估方面具有很好的应用前景。      

Factors affecting technical efficiency of small-scale apple farms in Balochistan Plateau,Pakistan

In Balochistan, Agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers and the apple production sector is confronted with the chronic constraint of low output per unit of input. Although some agricultural policies have been implemented in this province, studies on effectiveness and impacts of such policies over apple production and farmers’ performance are still limited. This study is an effort to bridge the research gap on this potential crop in the plateau by investigating technical and scale efficiency of 181 officially designated small-scale apple farmers in mountainous district Mastung in Balochistan; then explored factors that underlie differences in production inefficiency. A two-stage input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology was employed to evaluate technical and scale efficiency followed by truncated bootstrapped regression framework to analyze the correlative determinants to efficiency. Average technical and scale efficiencies of larger landholders were higher than medium and small landholders. Analysis indicated that there is still ample scope for inefficient sample farmers to reduce the input use by 33% without compromising the given yield level. Maximum contributions to the total input savings were from the use of urea, farm yard manure (FYM) and labor-use. Farmer’s experience, farm ownership, irrigation constraints, and farmer’s access to trainings, credit and extension services significantly affected apple farmers’ technical efficiency. Based on the findings of this study, strategies are suggested to enhancing efficiencies by farmers’ capacity development through effective extension services and trainings and provision of adequate credit.