Stability analysis and treatment of No.2 dump of Nanfen iron mine

On the basis of the study on the engineering geological characteristics of No.2 dump of Nanfen iron mine and the analysis of the failure mode of dump landslide, the stability of the present dump, the stability of the dump 20 years later and the stability of double-bench dump are analyzed. Then, the debris flow risk is evaluated by fuzzy mathematics method. Finally, the comprehensive treatment for the dump is suggested. It is concluded that ① In rainy and snowmelt period, the stability would be decreasing sharply when ground water is not drained out in time; ② Double-bench dumping mode will improve stability of the dump little; ③ Debris flow risk is middle danger. The interim debris flow with medium scale may occur. ④ Monitoring, draining and baffling work ought to be well done. ⑤ In order to prevent the damage of landslide and debris flow, three measures are adopted, including setting rockfall net, setting the debris flow barrier and removing the residents.     

Field experiment of rainfall infiltration on a soil slope and simulations based on a water-air two-phase flow model

Rainfall infiltration on a soil slope is usually an unsaturated seepage process that can be described by a water-air two-phase flow model. The effect of pore air pressure on rainfall infiltration has been widely recognized and validated by means of numerical simulations and laboratory experiments. However, whether a slope can actually seal pore air continues to be debated by researchers. In this study, a water-air two-phase flow model is used to simulate the rainfall infiltration process on a soil slope, and a field experiment is conducted to realistically test the sealing conditions of a slope. According to the numerical simulation, the areas of water and air flow in and out on the slope surface are relatively stable and can be classified as the "inhalation zone" and "overflow zone", respectively. Intermittent rainfall on the soil slope has an amplifying effect on pore air pressure because rainfall intensity is usually at the millimeter level, and it causes pore air pressure to reach the cm level. A field experiment was performed to determine whether a slope can realistically seal pore air and subsequently verify the regularity of rainfall infiltration. Air pressure sensors were buried in the slope to monitor the pore air pressures during the rainfall process. The monitoring results show that the pore air pressure in the slope changed, which indicates that the slope can seal air. Moreover, the amplification effects of intermittent rainfall on pore air pressure were observed for natural rainfall, which agrees well with the numerical simulation results.     

HY-2散射计风速降雨影响的神经网络校正

海洋二号搭载的笔形圆锥扫描微波散射计(HY2-scat)是国内第一个业务化运行的,可提供大量实时海面风场数据的微波传感器。由于Ku波段散射计测风原理和微波传输特性,受到降雨影响的散射计反演风场数据准确度降低。降雨导致的微波传播路径衰减,雨滴对微波直接后向散射导致的回波能量增加和雨滴对海表面毛细波的干扰等综合效应,使得降雨条件下散射计测风风速计算值偏高,风向计算值偏差较大。针对散射计反演风速受降雨影响的特点引入神经网络模型,使用准确度较高的NWP数值预报模式风场数据作为参考,对受降雨影响的HY-2散射计反演L2B级标准风场数据产品进行校正,改进HY-2散射计反演风矢量在降雨条件下的准确度。与受降雨影响的散射计反演风场风速偏差相比较,经过神经网络校正后的风速偏差减小,说明该方法适用于改善受降雨影响的HY-2散射计测风风速精度。     

FLO-2D simulation of mudflow caused by large landslide due to extremely heavy rainfall in southeastern Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot

Daniau Village in Daniau Creek Watershed, Taitung County, Taiwan, sustained damages from landslides and mudflows during Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The purpose of this study is to adopt the FLO-2D numerical model recognized by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to simulate the mudflow, and the Daniau Village was used as a case study, along with rainfall and digital terrain data for this simulation. On the basis of sediment yields, the residual sediment volume in the landslide area was determined to be 33,276 m³ by comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs) and by using the universal soil loss equation (USLE). In addition, this study performed a hydrological frequency analysis of rainfall to estimate the flow discharge as conditions of the simulation. Results of disaster surveys were collected to compare with outputs of the numerical model. Results of the simulation conducted with FLO-2D indicated that if the countermeasure was not destroyed, the drainage work would function without overflow. This study aimed to review the effectiveness of countermeasure on the basis of simulation results obtained by using the model to provide references for future disaster prevention and resident evacuation plans.     

The disastrous 23 July 2009 debris flow in Xiangshui Gully, Kangding County, Southwestern China

On 23 July 2009, a catastrophic debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall in Xiangshui gully, Kangding county, southwestern China. This debris flow originating shortly after a rainstorm with an intensity of 28 mm per hour transported a total volume of more than 480×103 m3 debris, depositing the poorly sorted sediment including boulders up to 2-3 m in diameter both onto an existing debris fans and into the river. Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering ra...     

降雨事件对上海地铁通勤客流时空影响的精细尺度研究

全球气候变化背景下,降雨事件日益增多,严重影响城市交通和居民的日常出行。本文以上海市为例,基于分时降雨数据和地铁OD客流数据,运用Prophet时序模型拟合降雨事件下的客流常态值,从站点和OD二个维度定量评估降雨造成的地铁通勤客流变化时空格局。研究结果表明：① 通勤客流总体随小时雨量增大而下降,不同类型站点客流的降雨波动性呈现差异;降雨会造成进站客流的时间滞后性和堆积性,通勤出行需求越大的站点类型堆积效应越显著;由于出发时间弹性差异,不同时点客流的降雨敏感性也不同,7:00和17:00敏感性较高,8:00—9:00和18:00—19:00则相对刚性;② 降雨会造成行程时间≤15 min的短距离客流显著上升,总体增加7.3%,中长距离客流变化不明显,总体减少1.3%;在不同功能区之间,早高峰居住型→产业型的客流波动和时间堆积性最为显著,晚高峰商服型→居住型的返程客流波动性较低;早高峰降雨敏感性线路的起始站点多分布在大型居住区,晚高峰则位于大型产业园区和商业中心;晚高峰返程客流的波动性低于早高峰。尽管降雨事件对通勤客流总量影响不明显,但会造成局部空间区域和时点的客流激增。本文的研究方法与结果有助于量化降雨对地铁通勤客流的影响程度,并为空间化的交通运行保障提供决策依据。     

Estimation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in the Sierra Madre Oriental,northeastern Mexico

Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico, causing significant damage to infrastructure. In this work, we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon, a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico. A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed. A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides. For each event the duration(D, in hours) and the cumulated rainfall event(E, in mm) were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area. We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5 D 120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area. On analyzing the obtained threshold, it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area. This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon. Finally, we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis. A good approach was obtained, especially for rainfall events with daily measurements. Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico, and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.     

湘中一次大暴雨天气的综合诊断分析

利用NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料、FY-2E逐小时TBB资料以及常规气象观测资料,对湘中地区2010年5月12—13日大暴雨过程的环流形势、物理量场以及中尺度系统进行综合分析,试图从多角度揭示这次大暴雨天气的成因。结果表明：高空南支槽,中低层切变以及地面冷空气是这次大暴雨天气过程的主要影响系统;低空急流作为暖湿气流的载体,为暴雨的产生提供了充足的能量条件和水汽条件;冷空气侵入高能不稳定的暖湿气团,是触发暴雨不稳定能量释放的热力机制;z-螺旋度的空间分布能反映暴雨发生时大气的动力特征,中低层强辐合,高层强辐散与低层正涡度的空间结构,有利于高低层形成“抽吸作用”,从而使上升运动得到发展和加强,为暴雨的产生提供有利的动力条件;高分辨率的云顶亮温TBB资料对降水的强度及落区有很好的指示意义。     

库水位升降与降雨作用下大型滑坡体渗流稳定性分析

库岸滑坡体分布广泛,在库水位升降和降雨条件下极易失稳。三板溪水电站东岭信滑坡堆积体总方量2 000×104 m3,最大厚度150 m,2006年水电站蓄水后滑坡体开始出现大变形,每年雨季加剧。首先经野外地质勘察和十余年监测数据整理,探明了地质条件和变形规律;其次使用SEEP/W模块对不同库水位升降速率、2019年库水位结合实测降雨条件下的饱和-非饱和流进行模拟,并采用SLOPE/W分别计算不同时刻的稳定系数。分析认为东岭信为超深层滑坡,其变形过程深受库水位升降和降雨影响;滑坡体具有明显的滞水特征,渗流过程复杂;在库水位上升过程中稳定系数不断下降,而在库水位消落过程中稳定性逐渐增强;在库水位上升和强降雨量共同作用下稳定性下降很快,汛后10 d左右达到最低值,此时的稳定性最差。本研究可用于指导库水位升降和降雨条件下大型滑坡体稳定性评价。      

Analysis of runoff in ungauged mountain watersheds in Sichuan, China using kinematic-wave-based GIUH model

Floods are one of the most common natural hazards occurring all around the world. However, the knowledge of the origins of a food and its possible magnitude in a given region remains unclear yet. This lack of understanding is particularly acute in mountainous regions with large degrees in Sichuan Province, China, where runoff is seldom measured. The nature of streamflow in a region is related to the time and spatial distribution of rainfall quantity and watershed geomorphology. The geomorphologic characteristics are the channel network and surrounding landscape which transform the rainfall input into an output hydrograph at the outlet of the watershed. With the given geomorphologic properties of the watershed, theoretically the hydrological response function can be determined hydraulically without using any recorded data of past rainfall or runoff events. In this study, a kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH) model was adopted and verified to estimate runoff in ungauged areas. Two mountain watersheds, the Yingjing River watershed and Tianquan River watershed in Sichuan were selected as study sites. The geomorphologic factors of the two watersheds were obtained by using a digital elevation model (DEM) based on the topographic database obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission of US’s NASA. The tests of the model on the two watersheds were performed both at gauged and ungauged sites. Comparison between the simulated and observed hydrographs for a number of rainstorms at the gauged sites indicated the potential of the KW-GIUH model as a useful tool for runoff analysis in these regions. Moreover, to simulate possible concentrated rainstorms that could result in serious flooding in these areas, synthetic rainfall hyetographs were adopted as input to the KW-GIUH model to obtain the flow hydrographs at two ungauged sites for different return period conditions. Hydroeconomic analysis can be performed in the future to select the optimum design return period for determining the flood control work.     

江汉平原地下水化学特征及水流系统分析

江汉平原水质性缺水问题日益突出,识别江汉平原地下水流系统分布模式,对地下水资源的合理利用与保护具有重要意义.选取江汉平原典型区域,综合水文地质条件、水动力场及水化学同位素指标深入分析地下水补给过程、水岩作用及滞留时间.得出由于碳酸盐岩的溶解,研究区的地下水化学类型属于HCO3-Ca (Mg)型.地下水中典型离子随深度增加逐渐降低,同位素随深度增加逐渐偏负,表现出地下水流系统呈局部与区域水流系统的特点,系统深度界限在10~20m.独立而复杂的局部水流系统在平枯水期地下水向河渠地表水排泄.根据3H的含量,局部水流为现代水,水循环交替迅速.受地形控制,中深层地下水总体由西和西北向东和东南径流,汇入汉江和长江,为区域水流系统.由于补给源的高程效应,区域水流的18O值存在明显分区,指示不同的补给来源与水流路径.山前丘陵区基本为现代水,向平原腹地纵深至汉江和长江排泄区,地下水年龄在几百年至6000a不等,水循环交替缓慢.研究发现江汉平原低洼排泄区存在区域水流的顶托补给,可为原生劣质水的分布与聚集研究提供依据.     

降雨径流与洪水淹没模型耦合的应用研究

洪水研究包括径流与淹没两种模式。为了探究流域降雨产汇流与淹没情况、提高洪水预报精度,本研究在传统流域水文模型的基础上耦合二维水动力学模型,建立水文-水动力耦合模型。以我国吉林温德河流域为研究实例,模拟了2017年“7·13”洪水在下游口前镇所处子流域洪水淹没过程。首先对基础数据进行预处理,建立HEC-HMS水文模型并进行参数优化后,最终获得流量过程水文结果作为水动力学模型边界条件,之后建立HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型对重要子流域进行淹没模拟。耦合模型计算结果显示,水文模型经多参数优化流量模拟的NSE系数为0.988,水动力计算最大淹没水深达9.3 m相对误差为-5.2%。从泛洪模拟结果来看,子流域上游部分的农田大量被淹,淹没水深范围在0.5~2.0 m,平均流速基本在1 m/s以下。下游口前镇内最大淹没水深接近1 m,水流速度0.2 m/s至1.5 m/s,与实际的淹没情况相吻合。研究表明,所建水文水动力耦合模型模拟计算的结果准确率较高,对具有复杂水文、水力条件的流域的洪水预报具有重要的指导意义。     

Effects of loose deposits on debris flow processes in the Aizi Valley,southwest China

Loose deposits, rainfall and topography are three key factors that triggering debris flows.However, few studies have investigated the effects of loose deposits on the whole debris flow process.On June 28, 2012, a catastrophic debris flow occurred in the Aizi Valley, resulting in 40 deaths.The Aizi Valley is located in the Lower Jinsha River,southwestern Sichuan Province, China. The Aizi Valley debris flow has been selected as a case for addressing loose deposits effects on the whole debris flow process through remote sensing, field investigation and field experiments. Remote sensing interpretation and laboratory experiments were used to obtain the distribution and characteristics of the loose deposits, respectively. A field experiment was conducted to explore the mechanics of slope debris flows, and another field investigation was conducted to obtain the processes of debris flow formation, movement and amplification. The results showed that loose deposits preparation, slope debris flow initiation,gully debris flow confluence and valley debris flow amplification were dominated by the loose deposits.Antecedent droughts and earthquake activities may have increased the potential for loose soil sources in the Aizi Valley, which laid the foundation for debris flow formation. Slope debris flow initiated under rainfall, and the increase in the water content as well as the pore water pressure of the loose deposits were the key factors affecting slope failure. The nine gully debris flows converged in the valley, and the peak discharge was amplified 3.3 times due to a blockage and outburst caused by a large boulder. The results may help in predicting and assessing regional debris flows in dry-hot and seismic-prone areas based on loose deposits, especially considering large boulders.     

Post-earthquake Rainfall-triggered Slope Stability Analysis in the Lushan Area

The "4.20" Lushan earthquake in Sichuan province, China has induced a large amount of geological hazards and produced abundant loose materials which are prone to post-earthquake rainfalltriggered landslides. A detailed landslide inventory was acquired through post-earthquake emergent field investigation and high resolution remote sensing interpretation. The rainfall analysis was conducted using historical rainfall records during the period from 1951 to 2010. Results indicate that the average annual rainfall distribution is heterogeneous and the largest average annual rainfall occurs in Yucheng district. The Stability Index MAPping(SINMAP)model was adopted to assess and analyze the postearthquake slope stability under different rainfall scenarios(light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorm). The model parameters were calibrated to reflect the significant influence of strong earthquakes on geological settings. The slope stability maps triggered by different rainfall scenarios wereproduced at a regional scale. The effect of different rainfall conditions on the slope stability is discussed.The expanding trend of the unstable area was quantitatively assessed with the different critical rainfall intensity. They provide a new insight into the spatial distribution and characteristics of postearthquake rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lushan seismic area. An increase of rainfall intensity results in a significant increase of unstable area. The heterogeneous distribution of slope instability is strongly correlated with the distribution of earthquake intensity in spite of different rainfall conditions. The results suggest that the both seismic intensity and rainfall are two crucial factors for postearthquake slope stability. This study provides important references for landslide prevention and mitigation in the Lushan area after earthquake.     

Subsurface flow processes in sloping cropland of purple soil

Subsurface flow is a prominent runoff process in sloping lands of purple soil in the upper Yangtze River basin.However,it remains difficult to identify and quantify.In this study,in situ runoff experimental plots were used to measure soil moisture dynamics using an array of time domain reflectometry(TDR) together with overland flow and subsurface flow using isolated collecting troughs.Frequency of preferential flow during rainfall events and the controls of subsurface flow processes were investigated through combined analysis of soil properties,topography,rainfall intensity,initial wetness,and tillage.Results showed that subsurface flow was ubiquitous in purple soil profiles due to welldeveloped macropores,especially in surface soils while frequency of preferential flow occurrence was very low(only 2 cases in plot C) during all 22 rainfall events.Dry antecedent moisture conditions promoted the occurrence of preferential flow.However,consecutive real-time monitoring of soil moisture at different depths and various slope positions implied the possible occurrence of multiple subsurface lateral flows during intensive storms.Rainfall intensity,tillage operation,and soil properties were recognized as main controls of subsurface flow in the study area,which allows the optimization of management practices for alleviating adverse environmental effects of subsurface flow in the region.     

Satellite retrieval of hurricane wind speeds using the AMSR2 microwave radiometer

The AMSR2 microwave radiometer is the main payload of the GCOM-W1 satellite,launched by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency in 2012. Based on the pre-launch information extraction algorithm,the AMSR2 enables remote monitoring of geophysical parameters such as sea surface temperature,wind speed,water vapor,and liquid cloud water content. However,rain alters the properties of atmospheric scattering and absorption,which contaminates the brightness temperatures measured by the microwave radiometer. Therefore,it is difficult to retrieve AMSR2-derived sea surface wind speeds under rainfall conditions. Based on microwave radiative transfer theory,and using AMSR2 L1 brightness temperature data obtained in August 2012 and NCEP reanalysis data,we studied the sensitivity of AMSR2 brightness temperatures to rain and wind speed,from which a channel combination of brightness temperature was established that is insensitive to rainfall,but sensitive to wind speed. Using brightness temperatures obtained with the proposed channel combination as input parameters,in conjunction with HRD wind field data,and adopting multiple linear regression and BP neural network methods,we established an algorithm for hurricane wind speed retrieval under rainfall conditions. The results showed that the standard deviation and relative error of retrievals,obtained using the multiple linear regression algorithm,were 3.1 m/s and 13%,respectively. However,the standard deviation and relative error of retrievals obtained using the BP neural network algorithm were better(2.1 m/s and 8%,respectively). Thus,the results of this paper preliminarily verified the feasibility of using microwave radiometers to extract sea surface wind speeds under rainfall conditions.     

Investigating the role of stratigraphy in large-area physically-based analysis of December 1999 Cervinara shallow landslides

The paper describes a large-area analysis of the triggering zones of shallow landslides on a case of unsaturated layered volcanic air-fall (pyroclastic) soil deposits in Cervinara site (18 km²), Southern Italy. The physically-based model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration-Based Grid Regional Slope-Stability) is used, which is used with either saturated or unsaturated conditions and implemented in a GIS platform. In addition to using the TRIGRS model to simulate some recent landslides, a new simplified approach is also tested to take into account the actual layered soil stratigraphy. The consistency check of the model and of the input data is performed with reference to slope stable conditions before rainfall. The performances of the models are evaluated through the ROC curves and two other quantitative indexes taken from the literature referring to the slope failures caused by December 1999 rainstorm. Notwithstanding the simplifications and limitations of the present work, both unsaturated conditions and layered stratigraphy are outlined as key factors for the slope stability of shallow deposits of unsaturated coarse-grained soils subjected to short heavy rainfall.     

Failure mechanism and stability analysis of the Zhenggang landslide in Yunnan Province of China using 3D particle flow code simulation

Based on the principle of 3D particle flow code, a numerical landslide run-out model is presented to simulate the failure process of the Zhenggang landslide (in southwestern China) under the effect of water after a rainfall. The relationship between the micro-mechanical parameters and the macro-shear strength of the grain material is determined through numerical calibrations. Then the rainfall effect is considered in numerical simulations and rain-induced sliding processes are performed, which help us to discuss the mechanism of deformation and failure of this landslide together with field observations. It shows the Zhenggang landslide would most likely be activated in Zone I and would gain momentum in Zone II. In order to prevent the potential disaster, a tailing dam is advised to be designed about 175 m downstream from the current landslide boundary of Zone II. Verified by field observations, the presented landslide model can reflect the failure mechanism after rainfall. It can also provide a method to predict the potential disaster and draft disaster prevention measures.     

昆仑山提孜那甫河流域雨雪分离的温度条件分析

气候变暖背景下高海拔山区融雪（冰）以及强降水引发的洪水愈加难以预测,通过山区雨雪分离可判定引发洪水的温度条件,从而为山洪准确预报提供简单而科学的参考依据。本研究以昆仑山提孜那甫河流域为例,基于流域内不同海拔气象站2012-2016年的降水以及温度数据,结合MOD10A2积雪数据,采用温度积分法和概率统计方法,利用研究期内的平均温度,确定出不同降水形态对应的温度条件,以达到雨雪分离的目的。研究结果表明,莫木克站最大温和积温分别达到20.91 ℃和51.82 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于18.13 ℃,43.69 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪;库地站最大温和积温分别达到14.51 ℃,33.17 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于13.57 ℃,31.68 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪;西合休站最大温和积温分别达到9.43 ℃,19.53 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于8.22 ℃,19.4 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪。利用流域内气象站点附近乡镇的气象统计数据对温度条件及分离结果进行验证,在海拔2000 m以下、2000~3000 m以及3000 m以上不同海拔地区的准确率分别为92.86%、79.49%以及88.3%。本研究可为判别洪水类型和洪水预报提供科学参考。     

Debris flow in metropolitan area — 2011 Seoul debris flow

A large number of debris flows occurred simultaneously at around 8:30 to 8:50 a.m. on July 27, 2011, at the center of Seoul, Korea. This area is located in the southern part of Seoul and is a densely populated district. As a result of the debris flow event, 16 people were killed, 30 houses were buried, and 116 houses were damaged around Umyeon Mountain, a relatively small mountain with a height of 312.6 m. Since the debris flow event, field investigations on the initiation and transportation zones of debris flows have been carried out. Rainfall data were collected from the automatic weather stations (AWSs) which are operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Video files recorded by residents were also acquired and used to analyze the flow characteristics of the debris flow. Field investigation shows that about 40 debris flows occurred around Umyeon Mountain and most of the debris flows were initiated by small slope failures. The effects of the precipitation that triggered the debris flows were analyzed as well. A landslide hazard map which considers slope gradient and aspect, strength of soil, hazard record, rainfall conditions, and vegetation, was constructed and compared with the initiation zones of debris flows.