Characteristics of Enhanced and Low Amplitude Anisotropic Wave Trains and Interplanetary Transients

The occurrence of a large number of high and low amplitude anisotropic wave train events over the years 1981–1994 has been examined along with the different solar features. The results indicate that the time of maximum of diurnal variation significantly remains in the 18-h direction for majority of the high and low amplitude wave trains. The amplitude of diurnal anisotropy remains significantly high and phase shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the quite day annual average values for majority of the HAEs. The diurnal amplitude remains significantly low and phase shifts towards earlier hours as compared to the quiet day annual average values for majority of the LAEs. The occurrence of these enhanced/low amplitude events is found to be dominant during the positive polarity of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy of these events is found to increase on the days of magnetic cloud as compared to the days prior to the event and it found to decrease during the later period of the event as the cloud passes the Earth. The high-speed solar wind streams do not play any significant role in causing these types of events. The interplanetary disturbances (magnetic clouds) are also effective in producing cosmic ray decreases.     

Relationship between interplanetary field/plasma parameters with geomagnetic indices and their behavior during intense geomagnetic storms

This paper presents a correlative study between the peak values of geomagnetic activity indices (Dst, Kp, ap and AE) and the peak values of various interplanetary field (Bt, Bz, E and σ_B) and plasma (T, D, V, P and β) parameters along with their various products (BV, BzV and B²V) during intense geomagnetic storms (GMSs) for rising, maximum and decay phases as well as for complete solar cycle 23. The study leads to the conclusion that the peak values of different geomagnetic activity indices are in good correlation with Bt, Bz, σ_B, V, E, BV, BzV and B²V, therefore these parameters are most useful for predicting GMSs and substorms. These parameters are also reliable indicators of the strength of GMSs. We have also presented the lag/lead time analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of geomagnetic activity indices, various interplanetary field/plasma parameters for all GMSs. We have found that the average of peak values of geomagnetic activity indices and various field/plasma parameters are larger in decay phase compare to rising and maximum phases of cycle 23. Our analyses show that average values of lag/lead time lie in the ≈?4.00 h interval for Kp, ap and AE indices as well as for Bt, Bz, σ_B, E, D and P. For a more meaningful analysis we have also presented the above study for two different groups G1 (CME-driven GMSs) and G2 (CIR-driven GMSs) separately. Correlation coefficients between various interplanetary field/plasma parameters, their various products and geomagnetic activity indices for G1 and G2 groups show different nature. Three GMSs and associated solar sources observed during three different phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and it is found that GMSs are associated with large flares, halo CMEs and their active regions are close to the solar equator.     

Statistical relationship between solar wind conditions and geomagnetic storms in 1998-2008

Applying ACE data and pressure-corrected Dst index (Dst*), annual distributions of solar wind structures detected at L1 point (the first Lagrangian point between solar-terrestrial interval) and correlations between solar wind structures and geomagnetic storms in 1998-2008 have been studied. It was found that, within the Earth's upstream solar wind, the dominant feature was interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), primarily magnetic clouds, during solar maximum period but corotating interaction regions (CIRs) at solar minimum. During rising and declining phases, solar wind features became unstable for the complicated solar corona transition processes between the maximum and minimum phases, and there was a high CIR occurrence rate in 2003, the early period of the declining phase, for the Earth's upstream solar wind was dominated by high-speed southern coronal-hole outflows at that time. The occurrence rate of sector boundary crossing (SBC) events was evidently higher at the late half of declining phase and minimum period. ICMEs mainly centered on the maximum period but CIRs on all the declining phase. The occurrence rate of ICMEs was 1.3 times of that of CIRs, and more than half of ICMEs were magnetic clouds (MCs). Half of magnetic clouds could drive interplanetary shock and played a crucial role for geomagnetic storms generation, especially intense storms (Dst*≤100 nT), in which 45% were jointly induced by sheath region and driving MC structure. Sixty percent of intense storms were totally induced by shock-driving MCs; moreover, 74% of intense storms were driven by magnetic clouds, 81% of them driven by ICMEs. Shock-driving MC was the most geoeffective interplanetary source for four fifths of it able to lead to storms and more than one-third to intense storms. The rest of intense storms (19%) were induced just by 3% of all detected CIRs, and most of CIRs (53%) were corresponding to nearly 40% moderate and small storms (−100 nT<Dst*≤−30 nT). The true sector boundary crossing (SBC) events actually had no obvious geoeffectiveness, just 6% of them corresponding to small storms.     

Magnetic Clouds: Solar Cycle Dependence,Sources, and Geomagnetic Impacts

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are transient magnetic structures giving the strongest southward magnetic field (Bz south) in the solar wind. The sheath regions of MCs may also carry a southward magnetic field. The southward magnetic field is responsible for space-weather disturbances. We report a comprehensive analysis of MCs and Bz components in their sheath regions for 1995 to 2017. 85% of 303 MCs contain a south Bz up to 50 nT. Sheath Bz during the 23 years may reach as high as 40 nT. MCs of the strongest magnetic magnitude and Bz south occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. Bipolar MCs depend on the solar cycle in their polarity, but not in the occurrence frequency. Unipolar MCs show solar-cycle dependence in their occurrence frequency, but not in their polarity. MCs with the highest speeds, the largest total-\(B\) magnitudes, and sheath Bz south originate from source regions closer to the solar disk center. About 80% of large Dst storms are caused by MC events. Combinations of a south Bz in the sheath and south-first MCs in close succession have caused the largest storms. The solar-cycle dependence of bipolar MCs is extended to 2017 and now spans 42 years. We find that the bipolar MC Bz polarity solar-cycle dependence is given by MCs that originated from quiescent filaments in decayed active regions and a group of weak MCs of unclear sources, while the polarity of bipolar MCs with active-region flares always has a mixed Bz polarity without solar-cycle dependence and is therefore the least predictable for Bz forecasting.     

THREE-DIMENSIONAL MHD SIMULATION OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES AT 1 AU CAUSED BY A SIMULATED SOLAR DISTURBANCE AND A TILTED HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT/PLASMA SHEET

A fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, MHD interplanetary model has been used, for the first time, to study the relationship between one form of solar activity and transient variations of the north–south component, Bz, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at 1 AU during the active period of a representative solar cycle. Four cases of initial steady-state solar wind conditions, with different tilt angles of the heliospheric current sheet/plasma sheet (HCS/HPS) which is known to be inclined at solar maximum, are used to study the relationship between the location of solar activity and transient variations of the north–south IMF Bz component at 1 AU. We simulated the initialization of the disturbance as a density pulse at different locations near the solar surface for each case of initial steady-state condition and observed the simulated IMF evolution of B (= –Bz) at 1 AU. The results show that, for a given density pulse, the orientation of the corresponding transient variation of Bz has a strong relationship to the location of the density pulse and the initial conditions of the IMF. A recipe for prediction of the initial Bz turning direction is also presented in this study.In previous studies that used this recipe with only a flat HCS/HPS that was coincident with the solar equatorial plane, we found a prediction accuracy of 83% from a data set of 73 events during solar maximum. The present study that incorporates more realistic HCS/HPS tilt angles confirms the earlier work.Our study leads us to suggest that significant Bz values, associated with substantial post-shock temporal periods of hours at 1 AU, could be achieved if large energies (say, 10 32–10 33 erg) were released at the Sun in a flare or helmet de-stabilization process.     

Evolution and flare productivity of active regions in October–November 2003

In the current solar cycle, the concentration of flare activity peaked during the period from October 19 to November 5, 2003, 3.5 years after the maximum point of the current solar-activity cycle. During this time, 56 high-(16) and medium-class flares occurred on the Sun, including 11 X flares. The flux of every such flare exceeded by a factor of 30 to 600 the 1–8 Å soft X-ray background flux of the entire Sun during flare-free periods. The disturbances caused by these flares produced six major S2-to S4-level proton events and four G1-to G5-class magnetic storms in the Earth’s space environment. Among the solar events observed were the most powerful X-ray flare of the current solar cycle, the eighth solar proton event in terms of particle flux during the entire history of observations, and the seventh magnetic storm in terms of Ap index. The most powerful flare resulted in the fastest coronal mass ejection during the current solar cycle with the solar plasma moving through interplanetary space at a velocity of 10⁶ km/s, which is about four times higher than the average velocity. Severe magnetic storms during the period from September 29 through October 3 posed a lot of problems for research and technological satellites (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Aqua, Chandra, Chips, Cluster, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 9, 10, and 12, etc.) and spacecraft in interplanetary space (Mars Explorer Rover and Microwave Anisotropy Probe). The Advanced Earth Observing Satellite 2 (ADEOS 2), a Japanese satellite for monitoring the Earth’s environment, was disabled at the time of the arrival of the powerful interplanetary shock from the superflare of October 28, 2003. During this period, the ISS astronauts were forced to escape into the aft part of the station five times, which ensured the strongest protection against radiation. This paper is dedicated to the study of the solar situation and individual flare events.     

The February 1986 solar activity: A comparison of GIOTTO,VEGA-1, and IMP-8 solar wind measurements with MHD simulations

Large disturbances in the interplanetary medium were observed by several spacecraft during a period of enhanced solar activity in early February 1986. The locations of six solar flares and the spacecraft considered here encompassed more than 100° of heliolongitude. These flares during the minimum of cycle 21 set the stage for an extensive multi-spacecraft comparison performed with a two-dimensional, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical experiment. The plasma instruments on the European Space Agency (ESA)'s GIOTTO spacecraft, on its way to encounter Comet Halley in March 1986, made measurements of the solar wind for up to 8 hours per day during February. We compare solar wind measurements from the Johnstone Plasma Analyzer (JPA) experiment on GIOTTO with the MHD simulation of the interplanetary medium throughout these events. Using plasma data obtained by the IMP-8 satellite in addition, it appears that an extended period of high solar wind speed is required as well as the simulated flares to represent the interplanetary medium in this case. We also compare the plasma and magnetometer data from VEGA-1 with the MHD simulation. This comparison tends to support an interpretation that the major solar wind changes at both GIOTTO and VEGA-1 on 8 February, 1986 were due to a shock from a W05° solar flare on 6 February, 1986 (06:25 UT). The numerical experiment is considered, qualitatively, to resemble the observations at the former spacecraft, but it has less success at the latter one.     

High abnormal rotation rates of sunspots and flare productivity

Solar activity, such as flares and CMEs, affect the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, to understand the Space Weather, we need to understand the mechanisms of solar activity. Towards this end, we use 1135 events of solar H_α flares and the positional data of sunspots from the archive of Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) for the period January–April, 2000 and compute the abnormal rotation rates that lead to high flare productivity. We report that the occurrence of 5 or more flares in a day in association with a given sunspot group can be defined as high flare productivity and the sunspots that have an abnormal rotation rates of ～4–10 deg day^?1 trigger high flare productivity. Further, in order to compare the flare productivity expressed as the strength of the flux emitted, especially the soft X-ray (SXR) flares in the frequency range of 1–8 Å, we compute the flare index of SXR flares and find that 8 out of 28 active regions used in this study satisfy the requirement for being flare productive. This enables us to conclude that the high rotation rates of sunspots are an important mechanism to understand the flare productivity, especially numerical flare productivity that includes flares of all class.     

An Investigation of Solar Maximum Metric Type ii Radio Bursts: do two Kinds of Coronal Shock Sources Exist?

A detailed statistical investigation of solar Type II radio bursts during the last solar maximum period 1999–2001 has been made to address the question if there exist two kinds of coronal shock sources. For this, the Type II bursts were classified into two classes: (i) those associated with flares only (Class I); and (ii) those associated with flares and CMEs (Class II) according to their temporal association. While the properties of all the type IIs agree in general with the common range of values, the properties of the shocks of the two classes differ slightly. For example, while the duration and shock speed for Class II are higher than those of Class I, the ending frequency for Class II is significantly lower. We have also examined in detail the physical association with other solar and interplanetary activities (Type IV bursts, Long Duration Events, Wind/WAVES deca-hectometric Type IIs, and interplanetary shocks) using the data in 2000. As a result, we have found noticeable differences between these two classes in terms of the following physical characteristics: First, the associations of these activities for Class II are much higher than those of Class I. Second, the correlation values between the flare parameters and the Type II properties for Class II are significantly smaller. Third, observed double Type IIs exist in only Class II events. The above results suggest that there are two kinds of coronal shocks or, rather, two general classes of coronal shock sources.     

Transient phenomena in cosmic ray intensity during extreme events

In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters. It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to 18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ∼500 kms-1. The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time Dst index remains ∼-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days. Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 255–265 (May 2008).     

Thermal Evolution and Radiative Output of Solar Flares Observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE)

This paper describes the methods used to obtain the thermal evolution and radiative output during solar flares as observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). How EVE measurements, due to the temporal cadence, spectral resolution and spectral range, can be used to determine how the thermal plasma radiates at various temperatures throughout the impulsive and gradual phase of flares is presented and discussed in detail. EVE can very accurately determine the radiative output of flares due to pre- and in-flight calibrations. Events are presented that show that the total radiated output of flares depends more on the flare duration than the typical GOES X-ray peak magnitude classification. With SDO observing every flare throughout its entire duration and over a large temperature range, new insights into flare heating and cooling as well as the radiative energy release in EUV wavelengths support existing research into understanding the evolution of solar flares.     

Influence of solar heliospheric parameters on cosmic rays anisotropy

In the present work the cosmic ray data of three different neutron monitoring stations, Deep River, Inuvik, and Tokyo, located at different geomagnetic cutoff rigidities and altitudes have been harmonically analyzed for the period 1980–95 for a comparative study of diurnal semi-diurnal and tri-diurnal anisotropies in cosmic ray intensity in connection with the change in interplanetary magnetic field Bz component and solar wind velocity on 60 quietest days. It is observed that the amplitudes of all the three harmonics increase during the period 1982–84 at all the stations during the high speed solar wind stream epoch and remain low during the declining phase of the stream. The amplitudes of the three harmonics have no obvious characteristics associated with the time variation of magnitude of the Bz component. The phases of all the three harmonics have no time variation characteristics associated with solar wind velocity and Bz. Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 651–664 (August 2006).     

Solar activity dependence of interplanetary disturbances

Interplanetary scintillation measurements obtained inside 200 R using the Ooty Radio Telescope during August 1986–April 1991 have been analysed to study the interplanetary disturbances (or events) and their occurrence rates at various phases of the solar cycle. The disturbances are identified by the increase in the level of scintillation compared with the expected value. In total, 735 events have been identified. The results show a rate of 0.49 events per day near solar maximum and a low rate of 0.16 events per day during minimum of activity. The results are compared with coronal mass ejection (CME) rates and transients rates obtained from the Doppler scintillation measurements.     

Study of Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations Associated with Anomalous,Long-Duration High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2003

High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December) to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together, as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS.     

Temporal variations of low-energy cosmic-ray protons on decadal and million year time-scales: Implications to their origin

We discuss the present day information on the prehistoric proton radiation in the solar system at 1 AU based on activation of lunar surface materials, in relation to our present day knowledge of their contemporary fluxes in solar flare events and during quiet time. The bulk of the prehistoric radiation can be attributed to its origin in solar flares. Its energy spectrum is, however, harder than the solar flare radiation observed during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21 (1954–1986). The implications of the data to other sources of particles and/or acceleration mechanisms in the interplanetary region are discussed.Paper dedicated to Professor Hannes Alfvén on the occasion of his 80th birthday, 30 May 1988.     

The Role of Long-Duration X-ray Solar Flares in the Generation of Interplanetary Disturbances

At present, it is widely believed that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) rather than solar flares, as assumed previously, are the sources of sporadic interplanetary disturbances. CMEs are an integral part of the powerful nonstationary processes that in many cases give rise to long-decay flares (LDFs). We numerically simulate the energy balance in a giant loop that forms during a LDF. For geoefficient disk flares, we show that maintaining the observed X-ray flux requires a prolonged input of a substantial amount of energy into this loop from above, from the region of primary energy release (probably, from a vertical current sheet). Part of the energy from this region propagates outward both at the onset of the process, with plasmoid ejections, and during the prolonged dynamic phase, thereby enhancing the CME. Using the series of LDFs in March 1993 as an example, we consider the role of flares in producing the corresponding interplanetary disturbances. The large amplitude of the Forbush effect and the strong interplanetary disturbance on March 8–10 near the Earth and on March 15 at a heliocentric distance of about 5 AU (Ulysses) are shown to have been associated with the long-duration flare of March 6, 1993. The March 1993 events give a typical example of CME and magnetic-configuration opening that result in post-CME energy release. This is accompanied by the appearance of new arch systems inside the active region and/or by the development of giant loop systems outside. Such a process enhances CME and increases its geoefficiency.     

Magnetic storms on Mars

Based on data from the Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer we examine periods of significantly enhanced magnetic disturbances in the martian space environment. Using almost seven years of observations during the maximum and early declining phase of the previous solar cycle the occurrence pattern and typical time profile of such periods is investigated and compared to solar wind measurements at Earth. Typical durations of the events are 20-40 h, and there is a tendency for large events to last longer, but a large spread in duration and intensity are found. The large and medium intensity events at Mars are found to occur predominantly in association with interplanetary sector boundaries, with solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements being the most likely interplanetary driver. In addition it is found that, on time scales of months to several years, the dominant cause of global variability of the magnetic field disturbance at Mars is solar wind dynamic pressure variations associated with the eccentricity of the martian orbit around the Sun.     

Study of Geomagnetic Storms and Solar and Interplanetary Parameters for Solar Cycles 22 and 24

The aim of this paper is to investigate the association of geomagnetic storms with the component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) perpendicular to the ecliptic (\(Bz\)), the solar wind speed (\(V\)), the product of solar wind speed and \(Bz\) (VBz), the Kp index, and the sunspot number (SSN) for two consecutive even solar cycles, Solar Cycles 22 (1986?–?1995) and 24 (2009?–?2017). A comparative study has been done using the superposed epoch method (Chree analysis). The results of the present analysis show that \(Bz\) is a geoeffective parameter. The correlation coefficient between Dst and \(Bz\) is found to be 0.8 for both Solar Cycles 22 and 24, which indicates that these two parameters are highly correlated. Statistical relationships between Dst and Kp are established and it is shown that for the two consecutive even solar cycles, Solar Cycles 22 and 24, the patterns are strikingly similar. The correlation coefficient between Dst and Kp is found to be the same for the two solar cycles (?0.8), which clearly indicates that these parameters are well anti-correlated. For the same studied period we found that the SSN does not show any relationship with Dst and Kp, while there exists an inverse relation between Dst and the solar wind speed, with some time lag. We have also found that VBz is a more relevant parameter for the production of geomagnetic storms, as compared to \(V\) and \(Bz\) separately. In addition, we have found that in Solar Cycles 22 and 24 this combined parameter is more relevant during the descending phase as compared to the ascending phase.     

Polar aurora effects associated with solar flares

The behaviour of the polar auroras in the dark part of the auroral oval during the solar flares has been examined. For the analysis 29 solar flares during spring and autumn periods when a part of the polar cap was sunlit were selected. It has been found that a sharp decreasing of the auroral arc luminosity occurred just after the solar flare onsets. Auroral arcs broke up into patches and in most cases disappeared in 2–3 min. Bright discrete auroras appeared again as a rule close to the maximum phase of the solar flares. The duration of polar aurora effects was typically from 4 to 13 min with median value of about 8 min. These effects have been observed inside the interval 18.00-04.00 M.L.T. during periods both of magnetic quiet and disturbance.For the large set of data magnetic field variations in the sunlit polar cap after the solar flare onset have been investigated. A simple model of the auroral processes for the qualitative explanation of the observed phenomenon has been suggested.     

Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool

A novel integrated prediction system for solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is presented here. The tool called forecasting solar particle events and flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasts of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to occurrence and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the likelihood of occurrence of an SEP event. In addition, the tool provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the SEP characteristics (e.g. peak flux, fluence, rise time, and duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on the effective connected magnetic field strength (\(B_{\mathrm{eff}}\)) metric, which is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations, and it uses a sophisticated statistical analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events, new statistical methods have been developed for the likelihood of the SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15?–?20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection, and the operational setup. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data, and we also discuss independent case studies.