Bayesian optimal design of an avalanche dam using a multivariate numerical avalanche model

For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by considering high return period events. However, defining a return period turns out to be tricky as soon as different variables are simultaneously considered. This problem can be overcome by maximizing the expected economic benefit of the defense structure, but purely stochastic approaches are not possible for paths with a complex geometry in the runout zone. Therefore, in this paper, we include a multivariate numerical avalanche propagation model within a Bayesian decisional framework. The influence of a vertical dam on an avalanche flow is quantified in terms of local energy dissipation with a simple semi-empirical relation. Costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to a building situated in the runout zone are roughly evaluated for each dam height–hazard value pair, with damage intensity depending on avalanche velocity. Special attention is given to the poor local information to be taken into account for the decision. Using a case study from the French avalanche database, the Bayesian optimal dam height is shown to be more pessimistic than the classical optimal height because of the increasing effect of parameter uncertainty. It also appears that the lack of local information is especially critical for a building exposed to the most extreme events only. The residual hazard after dam construction is analyzed and the sensitivity to the different modelling assumptions is evaluated. Finally, possible further developments of the approach are discussed.     

Empirical prediction of debris‐flow mobility and deposition on fans

A new method to predict the runout of debris flows is presented. A data base of documented sediment‐transporting events in torrent catchments of Austria, Switzerland and northern Italy has been compiled, using common classification techniques. With this data we test an empirical approach between planimetric deposition area and event volume, and compare it with results from other studies. We introduce a new empirical relation to determine the mobility coefficient as a function of geomorphologic catchment parameters. The mobility coefficient is thought to reflect some of the flow properties during the depositional part of the debris‐flow event. The empirical equations are implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) based simulation program and combined with a simple flow routing algorithm, to determine the potential runout area covered by debris‐flow deposits. For a given volume and starting point of the deposits, a Monte‐Carlo technique is used to produce flow paths that simulate the spreading effect of a debris flow. The runout zone is delineated by confining the simulated potential spreading area in the down slope direction with the empirically determined planimetric deposition area. The debris‐flow volume is then distributed over the predicted area according to the calculated outflow probability of each cell. The simulation uses the ARC‐Objects environment of ESRI© and is adapted to run with high resolution (2·5 m × 2·5 m) digital elevation models, generated for example from LiDAR data. The simulation program called TopRunDF is tested with debris‐flow events of 1987 and 2005 in Switzerland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of an 0.2 km3 Rock Avalanche on Lake Eibsee (Bavarian Alps,Germany) – Part I: Reconstruction of the paleolake and Effects of the Impact

Rock avalanches destroy and reshape landscapes in only a few minutes and are among the most hazardous processes on Earth. The surface morphology of rock avalanche deposits and the interaction with the underlying material are crucial for runout properties and reach. Water within the travel path is displaced, producing large impact waves and reducing friction, leading to long runouts. We hypothesize that the 0.2 km³ Holocene Eibsee rock avalanche from Mount Zugspitze in the Bavarian Alps overran and destroyed Paleolake Eibsee and left a unique sedimentological legacy of processes active during the landslide. We captured 9.5 km of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles across the rock avalanche deposits, with up to 120 m penetration depth and more than 34 000 datum points. The ERT profiles reveal up to ~50 m thick landslide debris, locally covering up to ~30 m of rock debris with entrained fine-grained sediments on top of isolated remnants of decametre-wide paleolake sediments. The ERT profiles allow us to infer processes involved in the interaction of the rock avalanche with bedrock, lake sediments, and morainal sediments, including shearing, bulging, and bulldozing. Complementary data from drilling, a gravel pit exposure, laboratory tests, and geomorphic features were used for ERT calibration. Sediments overrun by the rock avalanche show water-escape structures. Based on all of these datasets, we reconstructed both position and size of the paleolake prior to the catastrophic event. Our reconstruction of the event contributes to process an understanding of the rock avalanche and future modelling and hazard assessment. Here we show how integrated geomorphic, geophysical, and sedimentological approaches can provide detailed insights into the impact of a rock avalanche on a lake. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Modelling the spatio-temporal repartition of right-truncated data: an application to avalanche runout altitudes in Hautes-Savoie

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for generating avalanche hazard maps based on the spatial dependence of avalanche runout altitudes. The right-truncated data are described with a Bayesian hierarchical model in which the spatio-temporal process is assumed to be the sum of independent spatial and temporal terms. Topography is roughly taken into account according to valley altitude and path exposition, and the spatial dependence is modelled with a Matérn covariance function. An application is performed to the Haute-Savoie region, French Alps. A spatial dependence in runout altitudes is identified, and an effective range of about 10 km is inferred. The temporal trend extracted highlights the increase of avalanche runout altitudes from 1955, attributed to both anthropogenic factors and climate warming. In a cross validation scheme, spatial predictions are provided on undocumented paths using kriging equations. All in all, although our model is unable to take into account small topographic features, it is a first-ever approach that produces very encouraging results. It could be enhanced in future work by incorporating a numerical physically-based code into the modelling.     

Surface exposure dating of the Veliki vrh rock avalanche in Slovenia associated with the 1348 earthquake

Over 30 samples from bedrock and boulders from the Veliki vrh rock avalanche have been collected for surface exposure dating. The limestone rocks have been radiochemically treated to isolate and determine long-lived ³⁶Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry. It could be shown that the Veliki vrh rock avalanche from the Košuta Mountain (Slovenia) event can be very likely linked to one of the major historical earthquakes in Europe happening on the 25^th of January 1348. Taken into account independently determined denudation rates, inherited ³⁶Cl originating from pre-exposure at shallow depths (20–55 m) could be calculated. The high amount of inherited ³⁶Cl, i.e. 17–46% of the total ³⁶Cl, makes this site not suitable for a precise determination of the ³⁶Cl production rate as it was originally anticipated. Veliki vrh is a “classic” rock avalanche of high velocity. The slope failed in the upper part with a translational slide predominantly along the bedding planes, whereas dynamic fragmentation is the cause for further crushing of the material and the long runout.     

Granular flow experiments on the interaction with stationary runout path materials and comparison to rock avalanche events

The central focus of this work is to study the processes acting well below the surface of a moving rock or debris avalanche during travel over stationary substrate material. Small‐scale physical models at a linear scale of 1:10⁴ used coal as avalanche analogue material and different granular material simulating sedimentary substrates varying in frictional resistance, thickness and relative basal boundary roughness, as well as inerodible, non‐deformable runout path conditions. Substrate materials with the least frictional resistance showed the greatest response to granular flow overriding, becoming entirely mobilized beneath and ahead of the moving mass and producing the longest runout observed with a unique deposit profile shape. With a smooth substrate basal contact, failure occurred along this plane and avalanche and substrate became coupled during runout. With a rough base, however, temporary force chains of grain contacts in the substrate prevailed longer, imparted their resistance to motion/shear into the granular flow, and the flow rear section consequently halted earlier than when moving over substrates with a weak base. Reducing substrate thickness diminished the effect of basal contact roughness on granular flow runout and deposit length. Inerodible, non‐deformable substrate conditions caused changes in granular flow behaviour from essentially en masse sliding on low‐friction surfaces to increasing granular agitation over rougher paths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deciphering controls for debris-flow erosion derived from a LiDAR-recorded extreme event and a calibrated numerical model (Roßbichelbach,Germany)

Debris flows are among the most destructive and hazardous mass movements on steep mountains. An understanding of debris-flow erosion, entrainment and resulting volumes is a key requirement for modelling debris-flow propagation and impact, as well as analysing the associated risks. As quantitative controls of erosion and entrainment are not well understood, total volume, runout and impact energies of debris flows are often significantly underestimated. Here, we present an analysis of geomorphic change induced by an erosive debris-flow event in the German Alps in June 2015. More than 50 terrestrial laser scans of a 1.2 km long mountain torrent recorded geomorphic change in comparison to an airborne laser scan performed in 2007. Errors were calculated using a spatial variable threshold based on the point density of airborne laser scanning and terrestrial laser scanning and the slope of the digital elevation models. Highest erosion rates approach 5.0 m³/m² (mean 0.6 m³/m²). During the event 9550 ± 1550 m³ was eroded whereas only 650 ± 150 m³ was deposited in the channel. Velocity, flow pressure, momentum and shear stress were calculated using a carefully calibrated RAMMS Debris Flow model including material entrainment. Here we present a linear regression model relating debris-flow erosion rates to momentum and shear stress with an R² up to 68%. Channel transitions from bedrock to loose debris sections cause excessive erosion up to 1 m³/m² due to previously unreleased random kinetic energy now available for erosion. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete Element Modeling of Tangjiagou Two-Branch Rock Avalanche Triggered by the 2013 Lushan MW6.6 Earthquake, China

Two branches of Tangjiagou rock avalanche were triggered by Lushan earthquake in Sichuan Province, China on April 20^th, 2013. The rock avalanche has transported about 1 500 000 m³ of sandstone from the source area. Based on discrete element modeling, this study simulates the deformation, failure and movement process of the rock avalanche. Under seismic loading, the mechanism and process of deformation, failure, and runout of the two branches are similar. In detail, the stress concentration occur firstly on the top of the mountain ridge, and accordingly, the tensile deformation appears. With the increase of seismic loading, the strain concentration zone extends in the forward and backward directions along the slipping surface, forming a locking segment. As a result, the slipping surface penetrates and the slide mass begin to slide down with high speed. Finally, the avalanche accumulates in the downstream and forms a small barrier lake. Modeling shows that a number of rocks on the surface exhibit patterns of horizontal throwing and vertical jumping under strong ground shaking. We suggest that the movement of the rock avalanche is a complicated process with multiple stages, including formation of the two branches, high-speed sliding, transformation into debris flows, further movement and collision, accumulation, and the final steady state. Topographic amplification effects are also revealed based on acceleration and velocity of special monitoring points. The horizontal and vertical runout distances of the surface materials are much greater than those of the internal materials. Besides, the sliding duration is also longer than that of the internal rock mass.     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of runout‐path material on emplacement of the Round Top rock avalanche,New Zealand

Factors influencing the distance a disintegrating rock mass travels as it spreads across the landscape after detaching from a slope include the volume and mechanical properties of the material, local topography and the materials encountered in the runout path. Here we investigate the influence of runout‐path material on the mobility and final morphology of the Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. This rock avalanche of mylonitic schist ran out over a planar surface of saturated fluvial gravel. Longitudinal ridges aligned radial to source grade into smaller aligned hummocks and digitate lobes in the distal reach. Soils and river gravels in the runout path are found bulldozed at elongate ridge termini where they formed local obstacles halting avalanche motion at these locations, thus aiding development of prominent elongate ridges on the deposit. Further travel over the disrupted substrate led to avalanche–substrate mixing at the base of the debris mass. Field observations combined with subsurface geophysical investigations and laboratory analogue models illustrate the processes of substrate deformation features at the Round Top rock avalanche. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Llullaillaco volcano, northwest Argentina: construction by Pleistocene volcanism and destruction by sector collapse

Llullaillaco is one of a chain of Quaternary stratovolcanoes that defines the present Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), and marks the border between Chile and Argentina/Bolivia. The current edifice is constructed from a series of thick dacitic lava flows, forming the second tallest active volcano in the world (6739 m). K–Ar and new biotite laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step-heating dates indicate that the volcano was constructed during the Pleistocene (≤1.5 Ma), with a youngest date of 0.048±0.012 Ma being recorded for a fresh dacite flow that descends the southern flank. Additional ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar measurements for andesitic and dacitic lava flows from the surrounding volcanic terrain yield dates of between 11.94±0.13 Ma and 5.48±0.07 Ma, corresponding to an extended period of Miocene volcanism which defines much of the landscape in this region. Major- and trace-element compositions of lavas from Llullaillaco are typical of Miocene–Pleistocene volcanic rocks from the western margin of the CVZ, and are related to relatively shallow-dipping subduction of the Nazca plate beneath northern Chile and Argentina.Oversteepening of the edifice by stacking of thick, viscous, dacitic lava flows resulted in collapse of its southeastern flank to form a large volcanic debris avalanche. Biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of lava blocks from the avalanche deposit indicate that collapse occurred at or after 0.15 Ma, and may have been triggered by extrusion of a dacitic flow similar to the one dated at 0.048±0.012 Ma. The avalanche deposits are exceptionally well preserved due to the arid climate, and prominent levées, longitudinal ridges, and megablocks up to 20-m diameter are observed.The avalanche descended 2.8 km vertically, and bifurcated around an older volcano, Cerro Rosado, before debouching onto the salt flats of Salina de Llullaillaco. The north and south limbs of the avalanche traveled 25 and 23 km, respectively, and together cover an area of approximately 165 km². Estimates of deposit volume are hampered by a lack of thickness information except at the edges, but it is likely to be between 1 and 2 km³. Equivalent coefficients of friction of 0.11 and 0.12, and excess travel distances of 20.5 and 18.5 km, are calculated for the north and south limbs, respectively. The avalanche ascended 400 m where it broke against the western flank of Cerro Rosado, and a minimum flow velocity of 90 m s⁻¹ can be calculated at this point; lower velocities of 45 m s⁻¹ are calculated where distal toes ascend 200 m slopes.It is suggested that the remaining precipitous edifice has a high probability for further avalanche collapse in the event of renewed volcanism.     

Pyroclastic flows from the 1991 eruption of Unzen volcano,Japan

Pyroclastic flows from Unzen were generated by gravitational collapse of the growing lava dome. As soon as the parental lobe failed at the edge of the dome, spontaneous shattering of lava occurred and induced a gravity flow of blocks and finer debris. The flows had a overhanging, tongue-like head and cone- or rollershaped vortices expanding outward and upward. Most of the flows traveled from 1 to 3 km, but some flows reached more than 4 km, burning houses and killing people in the evacuated zone of Kita-kamikoba on the eastern foot of the volcano. The velocities of the flows ranged from 15 to 25 m/s on the gentle middle flank. Observations of the flows and their deposits suggest that they consisted of a dense basal avalanche and an overlying turbulent ash cloud. The basal avalanche swept down a topographic low and formed to tongue-like lobe having well-defined levees; it is presumed to have moved as a non-Newtonian fluid. The measured velocities and runout distances of the flows can be matched to a Bingham model for the basal avalanche by the addition of turbulent resistance. The rheologic model parameters for the 29 May flow are as follows: the density is 1300 kg/m³, the yield strength is 850 Pa, the viscosity is 90 Pa s, and the thickness of the avalanche is 2 m. The ash cloud is interpreted as a turbulent mixing layer above the basal avalanche. The buoyant portions of the cloud produced ash-fall deposits, whereas the dense portions moved as a surge separated from the parental avalanche. The ash-cloud surges formed a wide devastated zone covered by very thin debris. The initial velocities of the 3 June surges, when they detached from avalanches, are determined by the runout distance and the angle of the energy-line slope. A comparison between the estimated velocities of the 3 June avalanches and the surges indicates that the surges that extended steep slopes along the avalanche path, detached directly from the turbulent heads of the avalanches. The over-running surge that reached Kita-Kamikoba had an estimated velocity higher than that of the avalanche; this farther-travelled surge is presumed to have been generated by collapse of a rising ash-cloud plume.     

Late Pleistocene flank collapse of Zempoala volcano (Central Mexico) and the role of fault reactivation

Zempoala is an extinct Pleistocene (∼ 0.7–0.8 Ma) stratovolcano that together with La Corona volcano (∼ 0.9 Ma) forms the southern end of the Sierra de las Cruces volcanic range, Central Mexico. The volcano consists of andesitic and dacitic lava flows and domes, as well as pyroclastic and epiclastic sequences, and has had a complex history with several flank collapses. One of these collapses occurred during the late Pleistocene on the S–SE flank of the volcano and produced the Zempoala debris avalanche deposit. This collapse could have been triggered by the reactivation of two normal fault systems (E–W and NE–SW), although magmatic activity cannot be absolutely excluded. The debris avalanche traveled 60 km to the south, covers an area of 600 km² and has a total volume of 6 km³, with a calculated Heim coefficient (H/L) of 0.03. Based on the textural characteristics of the deposit we recognized three zones: proximal, axial, and lateral distal zone. The proximal zone consists of debris avalanche blocks that develop a hummocky topography; the axial zone corresponds with the main debris avalanche deposit made of large clasts set in a sandy matrix, which transformed to a debris flow in the lateral distal portion. The deposit is heterolithologic in composition, with dacitic and andesitic fragments from the old edifice that decrease in volume as bulking of exotic clasts from the substratum increase. Several cities (Cuernavaca, Jojutla de Juárez, Alpuyeca) with associated industrial, agricultural, and tourism activities have been built on the deposit, which pose in evidence the possible impact in case of a new event with such characteristics, since the area is still tectonically active.     

Tungurahua Volcano,Ecuador: structure,eruptive history and hazards

Tungurahua, one of Ecuador's most active volcanoes, is made up of three volcanic edifices. Tungurahua I was a 14-km-wide andesitic stratocone which experienced at least one sector collapse followed by the extrusion of a dacite lava series. Tungurahua II, mainly composed of acid andesite lava flows younger than 14,000 years BP, was partly destroyed by the last collapse event, 2955±90 years ago, which left a large amphitheater and produced a ∼8-km³ debris deposit. The avalanche collided with the high ridge immediately to the west of the cone and was diverted to the northwest and southwest for ∼15 km. A large lahar formed during this event, which was followed in turn by dacite extrusion. Southwestward, the damming of the Chambo valley by the avalanche deposit resulted in a ∼10-km-long lake, which was subsequently breached, generating another catastrophic debris flow. The eruptive activity of the present volcano (Tungurahua III) has rebuilt the cone to about 50% of its pre-collapse size by the emission of ∼3 km³ of volcanic products. Two periods of construction are recognized in Tungurahua's III history. From ∼2300 to ∼1400 years BP, high rates of lava extrusion and pyroclastic flows occurred. During this period, the magma composition did not evolve significantly, remaining essentially basic andesite. During the last ∼1300 years, eruptive episodes take place roughly once per century and generally begin with lapilli fall and pyroclastic flow activity of varied composition (andesite+dacite), and end with more basic andesite lava flows or crater plugs. This pattern is observed in the three historic eruptions of 1773, 1886 and 1916–1918. Given good age control and volumetric considerations, Tungurahua III growth's rate is estimated at ∼1.5×10⁶ m³/year over the last 2300 years. Although an infrequent event, a sector collapse and associated lahars constitute a strong hazard of this volcano. Given the ∼3000 m relief and steep slopes of the present cone, a future collapse, even of small volume, could cover an area similar to that affected by the ∼3000-year-old avalanche. The more frequent eruptive episodes of each century, characterized by pyroclastic flows, lavas, lahars, as well as tephra falls, directly threaten 25,000 people and the Agoyan hydroelectric dam located at the foot of the volcano.     

Runout analysis of a large rockfall in the Dolomites/Italian Alps using LIDAR derived particle sizes and shapes

LiDAR data were used to quantify and analyse a rockfall event which occurred in 2003 in the Western Dolomites (Italian Alps). In addition to previously existing airborne laserscanning (ALS) data, high resolution terrestrial laserscanning (TLS) data were collected. By using the original point clouds, the volume, axial ratio and runout length of single boulders as well as the surface roughness in the runout zone of the rockfall were derived. The total volume of the rockfall event of approximately 10 000 m³ was estimated by a reconstruction of the pre‐event surface at the detachment zone. The analysis of the laser scanning data of the accumulation zone revealed a power law scaling for boulder volumes larger than 8 m³. The dependence of runout length on boulder volume is complex; it is moderated by particle sphericity. In addition, we used ALS and TLS data to derive the spatial distribution of surface roughness on the talus cone. TLS allow for more accurate roughness mapping than ALS data, but for most applications the point density of ALS data seems to be sufficiently high to derive measures of roughness. Different sampling approaches for plane fitting on the scale of 5 m did not show significant effects besides the computational time. The results of our analyses provide important perspectives for rockfall modelling and process understanding with potential applications in both ‘applied’ (natural hazards) and ‘pure’ geomorphological research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Caldera formation at Volcán Colima, Mexico, by a large large holocene volcanic debris avalanche

About 4,300 years ago, 10 km³ of the upper cone of ancestral Volcán Colima collapsed to the southwest leaving a horseshoe-shaped caldera 4 km in diameter. The collapse produced a massive volcanic debris avalanche deposit covering over 1550 km² on the southern flanks of the volcano and extending at least 70 km from the former summit. The avalanche followed a steep topographic gradient unobstructed by barriers, resulting in an unusually high area/volume ratio for the Colima deposit. The apparent coefficient of friction (fall height/distance traveled) for the Colima avalanche is 0.06, a low value similar to those of other large-volume deposits. The debris avalanche deposit contains 40–75% angular volcanic clasts from the ancestral cone, a small proportion of vesicular blocks that may be juvenile, and in distal exposures, rare carbonate clasts plucked from the underlying surface by the moving avalanche. Clasts range in size to over 20 m in diameter and are brecciated to different degrees, pulverized, and surrounded by a rock-flour matrix. The upper surface of the deposit shows prominent hummocky topography with closed depressions and surface boulders. A thick, coarse-grained, compositionally zoned scoria-fall layer on the upper northeastern slope of the volcano may have erupted at the time of collapse. A fine-grained surge layer is present beneath the avalanche deposit at one locality, apparently representing an initial blast event. Most of the missing volume of the ancestral volcano has since been restored at an average rate of 0.002 km³/yr through repeated eruptions from the post-caldera cone. As a result, the southern slope of Volcán Colima may again be susceptible to collapse. Over 200,000 people are now living on primary or secondary deposits of the debris avalanche, and a repetition of this event would constitute a volcanic disaster of great magnitude.Ancestral Volcán Colima grew on the southern, trenchward flank of the earlier and larger volcano Nevado de Colima. Trenchward collapse was favored by the buttressing effect of Nevado, the rapid elevation drop to the south, and the intrusion of magma into the southern flank of the ancestral volcano. Other such trenchward-younging, paired volcanoes are known from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Chile, and Japan. The trenchward slopes of the younger cones are common sites for cone collapse to form avalanche deposits, as occurred at Colima and Popocatepetl in Mexico and at San Pedro Volcano in Chile.     

Paleomagnetic estimate of the emplacement temperature of the long-runout Nevado de Colima volcanic debris avalanche deposit, Mexico

Stoopes and Sheridan have mapped a volcanic debris avalanche of Nevado de Colima which has an exceptionally long runout (120 km) and low fall-height to length ratio (H/L = 0.04). We present paleomagnetic results from this volcanic debris avalanche deposit which provide evidence that this avalanche was emplaced at elevated temperatures. The majority of samples, collected from lithic clasts in the volcanic debris avalanche deposit, exhibit two-component remanent magnetizations with a low-temperature component (25–350°C) which is well grouped about the geomagnetic field direction at Colima and a high-temperature component (350–580°C) which is randomly oriented. Although the temperature of the deposit most likely varied with distance from the volcanic source and the thickness of the deposit, our results suggest an emplacement temperature of approximately 350°C at intermediate distances (18–26 km) from the source. In order for the rock clasts (20–40 cm diameter) to be heated to these temperatures, the avalanche was most likely the results of a magmatic, Bezymianny-type eruption. The mixing of hot, juvenile gases with the clasts provides an explanation for the high degree of fluidization of this material, as evidenced by the long runout of this avalanche deposit.     

Exploring new methods to analyse spatial impact distributions on debris-flow fans using data from south-western British Columbia

Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base maps, LiDAR data, orthophotos, and field observations. We devised a graphical method to convert our geospatial mapping into spatial impact heat maps normalized by fan boundaries, enabling comparison of runout distributions across different fans. About 90% of the mapped debris flows reached beyond the mid-points of fans, while less than 10% avulsed more than half-way across the fan relative to the previous flow path. Most avulsions initiated at distances of 20% to 40% of the maximum fan length from the fan apex and upstream of the fan intersection point. Large volume events tend to be more mobile in the down-fan direction, but the relation between volume and cross-fan runout (e.g., avulsions) is more complex. Differences in spatial impact distributions can be explained, in part, by the degree of fan incision and whether a fan is truncated at its toe by a river or lake. There were no significant differences in spatial impact distributions based on the geology of the source area, sediment supply condition, or hydrogeomorphic process classification.     

Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine‐dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Safuna Alta,Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Moraines that dam proglacial lakes pose an increasing hazard to communities in the Andes and other mountain ranges. The moraines are prone to failure through collapse, overtopping by lake waters or the effect of displacement waves resulting from ice and rock avalanches. Resulting floods have led to the loss of thousands of lives in the Cordillera Blanca mountains of Peru alone in the last 100 years. On 22 April 2002 a rock avalanche occurred immediately to the south‐west of Laguna Safuna Alta, in the Cordillera Blanca. The geomorphic evidence for the nature, magnitude and consequences of this event was investigated in August 2002. Field mapping indicated that the avalanche deposited 8–20 × 10⁶ m³ of rock into the lake and onto the surface of the frontal region of Glaciar Pucajirca, which flows into the lake. Repeated bathymetric surveying indicated that ～5 × 10⁶ m³ of this material was deposited directly into the lake. The immediate effect of this event was to create a displacement wave that gained in height as it travelled along the lake basin, overtopping the impounding moraine at the lake's northern end. To achieve overtopping, the maximum wave height must have been greater than 100 m. This, and subsequent seiche waves, caused extensive erosion of both the proximal and distal faces of the impounding terminal moraine. Further deep gullying of the distal face of this moraine resulted from the supply of pressurized water to the face via a relief overflow tunnel constructed in 1978. Two‐dimensional, steady‐state analysis of the stability of the post‐avalanche moraine rampart indicates that its proximal face remains susceptible to major large‐scale rotational failure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.