Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).     

Tsunami Hazard for the Auckland Region and Hauraki Gulf,New Zealand

The Hauraki Gulf is a semi-enclosed sea next to the largest population centre in New Zealand, the Auckland metropolitan region. The potential tsunami hazard is of concern to regional and local planners around the Hauraki Gulf. The Hauraki Gulf has recorded 11 tsunamis and one meteorological tsunami (rissaga) since 1840.The historical tsunami data are relatively sparse, particularly for the largest events in 1868 and 1883. Moreover, local sources may produce damaging tsunamis but none has occurred during recorded history. Therefore numerical modelling of potential tsunami events provides a powerful tool to obtain data for planning purposes. Three main scenarios have been identified for numerical modelling:1. A teletsunami event from an earthquake off the West Coast of South America. Historically this region has produced the largest teletsunamis in the Hauraki Gulf.2. A tsunami generated by a local earthquake along the Kerepehi Fault. This fault bisects the Gulf, has been active during the last century at the southern inland end, and is overlain by a considerable thickness of soft sediment that may amplify the seismic waves.3. A tsunami generated by a volcanic eruption within the Auckland Volcanic Field. This field has involved a series of mainly monogenetic basaltic eruptions over the last 140,000 years. Many of these eruptions have involved phreatomagmatic eruptions around the coastal margins, or within the shallow waters close to Auckland.     

Modern analogues for Miocene to Pleistocene alkali basaltic phreatomagmatic fields in the Pannonian Basin: “soft-substrate” to “combined” aquifer controlled phreatomagmatism in intraplate volcanic fields Research Article

The Pannonian Basin (Central Europe) hosts numerous alkali basaltic volcanic fields in an area similar to 200 000 km². These volcanic fields were formed in an approximate time span of 8 million years producing smallvolume volcanoes typically considered to be monogenetic. Polycyclic monogenetic volcanic complexes are also common in each field however. The original morphology of volcanic landforms, especially phreatomagmatic volcanoes, is commonly modified. by erosion, commonly aided by tectonic uplift. The phreatomagmatic volcanoes eroded to the level of their sub-surface architecture expose crater to conduit filling as well as diatreme facies of pyroclastic rock assemblages. Uncertainties due to the strong erosion influenced by tectonic uplifts, fast and broad climatic changes, vegetation cover variations, and rapidly changing fluvio-lacustrine events in the past 8 million years in the Pannonian Basin have created a need to reconstruct and visualise the paleoenvironment into which the monogenetic volcanoes erupted. Here phreatomagmatic volcanic fields of the Miocene to Pleistocene western Hungarian alkali basaltic province have been selected and compared with modern phreatomagmatic fields. It has been concluded that the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) in New Zealand could be viewed as a prime modern analogue for the western Hungarian phreatomagmatic fields by sharing similarities in their pyroclastic successions textures such as pyroclast morphology, type, juvenile particle ratio to accidental lithics. Beside the AVF two other, morphologically more modified volcanic fields (Pali Aike, Argentina and Jeju, Korea) show similar features to the western Hungarian examples, highlighting issues such as preservation potential of pyroclastic successions of phreatomagmatic volcanoes.     

Evaluation of earthquake-induced strain in promoting mud eruptions: the case of Shamakhi–Gobustan–Absheron areas,Azerbaijan

Although a relationship between the occurrence of large earthquakes and the eruptions of close mud volcanoes is well known, several uncertainties remain on understanding the triggering mechanisms. In the present study, we evaluate both the static and dynamic strains induced by earthquakes in the substratum of mud volcanoes. We studied the effects of two earthquakes of M _w 6.18 and 6.08 occurred in the Caspian Sea on 25 November 2000 close to Baku city, Azerbaijan. A total of 33 eruptions occurred at 24 mud volcanoes within a maximum distance of 108 km from the epicentres in the 5 years following the earthquakes. The overall eruption rate in the studied area of the 50 years before the 2000 earthquakes was 1.24 that is much smaller than the eruption rate of 6.6 of the 5 years following these earthquakes. The largest number of eruptions occurred within 2 years from the earthquakes with the highest frequency within 6 months. Our calculated earthquake-induced static effects show that crustal dilatation might have triggered only seven eruptions at a maximum distance of about 60 km from the epicentres and within 3 years. Based on our data, dynamic rather than static strain is likely to have been the dominating “promoting” factor because it affected all the studied unrest volcanoes and its magnitude was much larger.     

Mafic pyroclastic flows at Santa Maria (Gaua) Volcano, Vanuatu: the caldera formation problem in mainly mafic island arc volcanoes

At Santa Maria Volcano (New Hebrides island arc), extensive ash and scoria flow deposits overlie the mainly effusive, pre-caldera cone. Hydromagmatic features characterize these deposits, the composition of juvenile clasts ranges from basalt to acid andesite/dacite (SiO₂= 51–63.6%) with a dominant basaltic composition. The stratigraphic position of this pyroclastic series and its spatial distribution around a 8.5 km × 6 km wide caldera provide evidence of a relationship between this series and the caldera formation. In addition, these pyroclastic deposits are co-genetic to parasitic cones and lava flows developed along faults concentric to the caldera. Both series result from a compositionally layered magma reservoir, the subordinate differentiated magmas being the result of fractional crystallization from the basalts. A model of caldera formation which implies a large hydromagmatic eruption at the central vent and minor magma withdrawal by flank eruptions is proposed. This model emphasizes the importance of mafic hydroclastic eruptions in the caldera forming event and contradicts a model implying only quiet subsidence, a process often proposed for the formation of calderas in island are volcanoes of mainly mafic composition.     

Exploring lava‐flow hazards at Pico Island,Azores Archipelago (Portugal)

Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30‐km‐long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava‐flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision‐making in territorial management and future land‐use planning.     

Geological and Historical Investigation of the 1650 Mt. Columbo (Thera Island) Eruption and Tsunami, Aegean Sea, Greece

This paper reviews geological andhistorical evidence for the eruption and tsunamireported to have occurred in 1650 in the areaof Mt. Columbo, Thera Island, Greece. The tsunami isbelieved to have been generated as a consequence ofthe eruption of Mt. Columbo 6.5 km NE of Thera Island.Historical documents state that the tsunami flooded upto 2 miles inland and destroyed many engineeredstructures. We present lithostratigraphic evidencefrom one abandoned trench and two trench excavationsclose to sea level in the villages of Kamari andPerissa respectively, which lie well within thereported inundation zone of the tsunami. The resultspresented show that no marine- (tsunami) depositedsediments are preserved at these locations.Alternative hypotheses of discontinuous sedimentdeposition and over estimation of the event magnitudeare considered to explain the observations presentedhere. The data may have important implications for thedevelopment of hazard zone maps, risk assessment,vulnerability reduction and for emergency managementofficials.     

TITAN2D simulations of pyroclastic flows at Cerro Machín Volcano,Colombia: Hazard implications

Cerro Machín is a dacitic tuff ring located in the central part of the Colombian Andes. It lies at the southern end of the Cerro Bravo–Cerro Machín volcanic belt. This volcano has experienced at least six major explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have generated pyroclastic flows associated with Plinian activity that have traveled up to 8 km from the crater, and pyroclastic flows associated with Vulcanian activity with shorter runouts of 5 km from the source. Today, some 21,000 people live within a 8 km radius of Cerro Machín. The volcano is active with fumaroles and has shown increasing seismic activity since 2004, and therefore represents a potentially increasing threat to the local population. To evaluate the possible effects of future eruptions that may generate pyroclastic density currents controlled by granular flow dynamics we performed flow simulations with the TITAN2D code. These simulations were run in all directions around the volcano, using the input parameters of the largest eruption reported. The results show that an eruption of 0.3 km³ of pyroclastic flows from a collapsing Plinian column would travel up to 9 km from the vent, emplacing a deposit thicker than 60 m within the Toche River valley. Deposits >45 m thick can be expected in the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks, while 30 m thick deposits could accumulate within the drainages of the Tochecito, Bermellón, and Coello Rivers. A minimum area of 56 km² could be affected directly by this kind of eruption. In comparison, Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows of 0.1 km³ would travel up to 6 km from the vent depositing >45 m thick debris inside the Toche River valley and more than 30 m inside the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks. The minimum area that could be affected directly by this kind of eruption is 33 km². The distribution and thickness of the deposits obtained by these simulations are consistent with the hazard map presented by INGEOMINAS (Geological Survey of Colombia) in 2002. The composite map of the simulated flow deposits suggests that after major explosive events such as these, the generation of lahars is probable.     

长白山天池火山——多成因中央式火山

长白山天池火山属新生代多成因中央式火山,也是我国最大的一座具潜在危险的活火山。火山主体由早期玄武岩盾、中期粗面岩锥和晚期伊格尼姆岩席组成。天池火山布里尼喷发柱高度最高达25 km,柱体最大宽度为半径12～13 km。天池破火山口塌陷过程可以分为四期,分别位于造锥喷发阶段和造伊格尼姆岩喷发阶段。本文对天池火山未来可能的火山灾害类型及范围也作了初步预测。     

Dynamics of melting beneath a small-scale basaltic system: a U-Th–Ra study from Rangitoto volcano,Auckland volcanic field,New Zealand

The Auckland volcanic field is a Quaternary monogenetic basaltic field of 50 volcanoes. Rangitoto is the most recent of these at ~500 year BP and may mark a change in the behaviour of the field as it is the largest by an order of magnitude and is unusual in that it erupted magmas of alkalic then subalkalic basaltic composition in discrete events separated by ≤50 years. Major and trace element geochemistry together with Sr–Nd and U-Th–Ra isotopes provides the basis for modelling the melting conditions that brought about the eruption of two chemically different lavas with very little spatial or temporal change. Sr–Nd isotopes suggest that the source for both eruptions is similar with a slight degree of heterogeneity. The basalts show high ²³⁰Th-excess compared with comparable continental volcanic fields. We show that the alkalic basalts give evidence for lower degrees of partial melting, higher amounts of residual garnet, a longer melting column and lower melting and upwelling rates compared with the subalkalic basalts. The low upwelling rates (0.1–1.5 cm/year) modelled for both magmas do not suggest a plume or major upwelling in the mantle region beneath Auckland; therefore, we suggest localised convection due to relict movement from the active subduction system situated 400 km to the southeast. A higher porosity for the initial alkalic basalt is based on ²²⁶Ra-excesses, suggesting movement of melt by two different porosities: the initial melt travelling in fast high porosity channels from greater depths preserving a high ²³⁰Th-excess and the subsequent subalkalic magma travelling from a shallower depth through lower porosity diffuse channels preserving a high ²²⁶Ra-excess; this creates a negative array in (²²⁶Ra/²³⁰Th) versus (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) space previously only seen in mid ocean ridge Basalt data. This mechanism suggests the Auckland volcanic field may operate by the presence of discrete melt batches that are able to move at different depths and speeds giving the field its erratic spatial and temporal pattern of eruptions, a type of behaviour that may have implications for the evolution of other continental volcanic fields worldwide.     

The first ascent to the volcano Cotopaxi in Ecuador by Wilhelm Reiss (1838–1908)

The volcano Cotopaxi in South America is 5,897 m high and is one of the highest active volcanoes of the world and the second highest volcano in the Andes after the Chimborazo (6,310 m). In Ecuador, there are more than 20 volcanoes contributing to the spectacular mountain range diving this country between the western and eastern lowlands. There have been more than 50 reports of volcanic activity at Cotopaxi since 1738, among which those from the years 1744, 1768, and 1877 are the largest. During the 1877 eruption, the whole summit glacier collapsed and a huge mudflow spread out for more than 100 km and flooded the city of Latacunga. Five years prior to this catastrophic event, the German geologist Wilhelm Reiss from the University of Heidelberg ascended Cotopaxi for the first time together with his supporter Angel M. Escobar from Columbia.     

五大连池老黑山、火烧山的火山喷发特征

从野外调查及火山喷发观测记录入手, 结合国内外火山研究的新进展, 在火山成因类型、喷发方式及喷发前兆等方面讨论了五大连池老黑山、火烧山的火山喷发特征。指出老黑山、火烧山的火山成因类型属于单成因火山, 喷发方式不是简单的中心式喷发, 而是经历了裂隙式喷发后转为中心式喷发。通过火山喷发观测记录的分析及与国外火山对比, 揭示出此次火山喷发是有前兆的, 其前兆特征对监测预报未来火山喷发有借鉴意义。     

Comparison of seismic activity for Llaima and Villarrica volcanoes prior to and after the Maule 2010 earthquake

Llaima and Villarrica are two of the most active volcanoes in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone and presently show contrasting types of activity. Llaima is a closed vent edifice with fumarolic activity, while Villarrica has an open vent with a lava lake, continuous degassing and tremor activity. This study is focused on characterizing the relationships between volcanic and seismic activity in the months before and after the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake, which was located in NNW direction from the volcanoes. Time series for tremors, long-period and volcano-tectonic events were obtained from the catalogue of the Volcanic Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) and from the SFB 574 temporary volcanic network. An increase in the amount of tremor activity, long-period events and degassing rates was observed at Villarrica weeks before the mainshock and continued at a high level also after it. This increase in activity is interpreted to be caused by enhanced magma influx at depth and may be unrelated to the Maule event. In Llaima, an increase in the volcano-tectonic activity was observed directly after the earthquake. The simultaneous post-earthquake activity at both volcanoes is consistent with a structural adjustment response. Since this enhanced activity lasted for more than a year, we suggest that it is related to a medium-term change in the static stress. Thus, the Maule earthquake may have affected both volcanoes, but did not trigger eruptions, from which we assume that none of the volcanoes were in a critical state.     

Records of palaeo‐sea level and eruption duration in a coastal tuff ring,Jeju Island,Korea

Phreatomagmatic volcanoes and their sedimentary products can preserve high‐resolution records of earth surface processes because of their high deposition rate. Songaksan, Jeju Island, Korea, is a phreatomagmatic volcano, which erupted c. 3.7 ka BP in a coastal setting. Its tuff ring preserves a record of intertidal to supratidal facies transition in the basal part, which reveals the position of palaeo‐high‐tide level for at least 13 high‐tide events, and a record of a storm‐surge event in the middle part of the tuff ring, which lasted approximately three tidal cycles. Based on these features, the phreatomagmatic eruption of Songaksan is estimated to have taken place over a month. The sea level at the time was almost identical to that at present. This study shows that coastal phreatomagmatic volcanoes can preserve high‐resolution records of eruption duration and palaeo‐sea level, and can provide accurately levelled and dated data points to the Quaternary sea‐level curve.     

The Vulnerability of Canada to Volcanic Hazards

Western Canada lies in a zone of active tectonics and volcanism, but thedispersed population has witnessed few eruptions due to the remoteness of the volcanoes and their low level ofactivity. This has created a false perception that Canada's volcanoes are extinct.There are more than 200 potentially-active volcanoes in Canada, 49of which have erupted in the past 10,000 years. They occur in five belts, with origins related totectonic environment. The minimum annual probability of a Canadian volcanic eruption is approximately 1/200;for an effusive (lava) eruption the probability is about 1/220, and for a significant explosive eruptionit is about 1/3333. In-progress studies show that there have been earthquakes associated with at least 9 ofthe youngest Canadian volcanoes since 1975. A scenario of an eruption of Mt. Cayley (50.1°N,123.3°W) shows how western Canada is vulnerable to an eruption. The scenario is basedon past activity in the Garibaldi volcanic belt and involves both explosive and effusive activity.The scenario impact is largely a result of the concentration of vulnerable infrastructure in valleys.Canadian volcanoes are monitored only by a regional seismic network,that is capable of detecting a M > 2 event in all potentially-active areas.This level of monitoring is probably sufficient to alert scientistsat or near eruption onset, but probably insufficient to allow a timelyforecast of activity. Similarly the level of geological knowledge about the volcanoes is insufficient to createhazard maps. This will improve slightly in 2002 when additional monitoring is implemented in theGaribaldi volcanic belt. The eruption probabilities, possible impacts, monitoring limitations and knowledgegaps suggest that there is a need to increment the volcanic risk mitigation efforts.     

Seismicity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes: case review and the possible scenarios for the Harraat volcanic provinces, Saudi Arabia

During April–June 2009, a swarm of more than 30,000 earthquakes struck the Harrat Lunayyir, situated in the north-western end of the Saudi Arabian Harraat, east of the Red Sea. This sharp increase in the seismic activity in the region of ancient basaltic volcanic centers indicated a likelihood of a future eruption. To check the situation, a short review of the best-documented seismic activity associated with active, new-born, and re-awakening basaltic volcanoes is presented in this article. Basing on the review, some regularity in the development of seismic activity associated with basaltic eruptions was formulated. Three stages in the development of seismic activity were identified: preliminary, preceding, and continuous. The duration of preceding stage varies from a few hours for active and re-awakened volcanoes to some weeks for new-born volcanoes and may serve as a criterion for discriminations of different types of basaltic eruptions. The duration of the seismic activity during the 2009 episode at Harrat Lunayyir was longer than any activity preceding the basaltic eruptions of different types. Therefore, the most probable scenario is the arrest of sub-surface intrusion without any eruption in the region of Harrat Lunayyir. The next probable scenario would be the dike injections along the rift zones. The re-awakening of the old Harrat Lunayyir volcano or the birth of a new volcano at Harrat Lunayyir is less probable.     

Volcano video data characterized and classified using computer vision and machine learning algorithms

Video cameras are common at volcano observatories,but their utility is often limited during periods of crisis due to the large data volume from continuous acquisition and time requirements for manual analysis.For cameras to serve as effective monitoring tools,video frames must be synthesized into relevant time series signals and further analyzed to classify and characterize observable activity.In this study,we use computer vision and machine learning algorithms to identify periods of volcanic activity and quantify plume rise velocities from video observations.Data were collected at Villarrica Volcano,Chile from two visible band cameras located～17 km from the vent that recorded at 0.1 and 30 frames per second between February and April 2015.Over these two months,Villarrica exhibited a diverse range of eruptive activity,including a paroxysmal eruption on 3 March.Prior to and after the eruption,activity included nighttime incandescence,dark and light emissions,inactivity,and periods of cloud cover.We quantify the color and spatial extent of plume emissions using a blob detection algorithm,whose outputs are fed into a trained artificial neural network that categorizes the observable activity into five classes.Activity shifts from primarily nighttime incandescence to ash emissions following the 3 March paroxysm,which likely relates to the reemergence of the buried lava lake.Time periods exhibiting plume emissions are further analyzed using a row and column projection algorithm that identifies plume onsets and calculates apparent plume horizontal and vertical rise velocities.Plume onsets are episodic,occurring with an average period of～50 s and suggests a puffing style of degassing,which is commonly observed at Villarrica.However,the lack of clear acoustic transients in the accompanying infrasound record suggests puffing may be controlled by atmospheric effects rather than a degassing regime at the vent.Methods presented here offer a generalized toolset for volcano monitors to classify and track emission statistics at a variety of volcanoes to better monitor periods of unrest and ultimately forecast major eruptions.     

From sink to volcanic source: Unravelling missing terrestrial eruption records by characterization and high‐resolution chronology of lacustrine volcanic density flow deposits,Lake Inawashiro‐ko,Fukushima, Japan

Eruption records in the terrestrial stratigraphy are often incomplete due to erosion after tephra deposition, limited exposure and lack of precise dating owing to discontinuity of strata. A lake system and sequence adjacent to active volcanoes can record various volcanic events such as explosive eruptions and subaqueous density flows being extensions of eruption triggered and secondary triggered lahars. A lacustrine environment can constrain precise ages of such events because of constant and continuous background sedimentation. A total of 71 subaqueous density flow deposits in a 28 m long core from Lake Inawashiro‐ko reveals missing terrestrial volcanic activity at Adatara and Bandai volcanoes during the past 50 kyr. Sedimentary facies, colour, grain size, petrography, clay mineralogy, micro X‐ray fluorescence analysis and chemistry of included glass shards characterize the flow event deposits and clarify their origin: (i) clay‐rich grey hyperpycnites, extended from subaerial cohesive lahars at Adatara volcano, with sulphide/sulphate minerals and high sulphur content which point to a source from hydrothermally altered material ejected by phreatic eruptions; and (ii) clay‐rich brown density flow deposits, induced by magmatic hydrothermal eruptions and associated edifice collapse at Bandai volcano, with the common presence of fresh juvenile glass shards and low‐grade hydrothermally altered minerals; whereas (iii) non‐volcanic turbidites are limited to the oldest large slope failure and the 2011 Tohoku‐oki earthquake events. The high‐resolution chronology of volcanic activity during the last 50 kyr expressed by lacustrine event deposits shows that phreatic eruption frequency at Adatara has roughly tripled and explosive eruptions at Bandai have increased by ca 50%. These results challenge hikers, ski‐fields and downstream communities to re‐evaluate the increased volcanic risks from more frequent eruptions and far‐reaching lahars, and demonstrate the utility of lahar and lacustrine volcanic density flow deposits to unravel missing terrestrial eruption records, otherwise the recurrence rate may be underestimated at many volcanoes.     

浙江苍南望州山破火山地质特征及其形成演化

相对于保存完好的新火山而言,古老火山由于经受长期剥蚀与后期构造改造能够直接出露不同时期和深度的物质组成,是火山机构解剖的理想对象。通过对古火山机构进行调查及研究,对于理解火山喷发过程和浅部岩浆系统演化具有重要研究意义,同时对活动火山的监测及灾害评估具有实践意义。文章通过系统的野外地质调查和综合研究,对浙江苍南地区望州山古火山进行了详细的剖析,根据岩性岩相平面上呈环状展布且向核部由老变新,产状围斜内倾,发育典型的环状、放射状断层以及晚期中央侵入相岩穹等特征,确认其是一座典型的复活破火山,其形成演化先后经历了初始断陷与小规模喷发、普林尼式喷发、溢流式喷发、大规模普林尼式喷发和破火山塌陷、晚期复活5个阶段。