The rupture process and tectonic implications of the great 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake

We have determined the rupture history of the March 28, 1964, Prince Williams Sound earthquake (M _w=9.2) from long-period WWSSNP-wave seismograms. Source time functions determined from the long-periodP waves indicate two major pulses of moment release. The first and largest moment pulse has a duration of approximately 100 seconds with a relatively smooth onset which reaches a peak moment release rate at about 75 seconds into the rupture. The second smaller pulse of moment release starts at approximately 160 seconds after the origin time and has a duration of roughly 40 seconds. Because of the large size of this event and thus a deficiency of on-scale, digitizableP-wave seismograms, it is impossible to uniquely invert for the location of moment release. However, if we assume a rupture direction based on the aftershock distribution and the results of surface wave directivity studies we are able to locate the spatial distribution of moment along the length of the fault. The first moment pulse most likely initiated near the epicenter at the northeastern down-dip edge of the aftershock area and then spread over the fault surface in a semi-circular fashion until the full width of the fault was activated. The rupture then extended toward the southwest approximately 300 km (Ruff andKanamori, 1983). The second moment pulse was located in the vicinity of Kodiak Island, starting at 500 km southwest of the epicenter and extending to about 600 km. Although the aftershock area extends southwest past the second moment pulse by at least 100 km, the moment release remained low. We interpret the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake as a multiple asperity rupture with a very large dominant asperity in the epicentral region and a second major, but smaller, asperity in the Kodiak Island region.The zone that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake is segmented into two regions corresponding to the two regions of concentrated moment release. Historical earthquake data suggest that these segments behaved independently during previous events. The Kodiak Island region appears to rupture more frequently with previous events occurring in 1900, 1854, 1844, and 1792. In contrast, the Prince William Sound region has much longer recurrence intervals on the order of 400–1000 years.     

Coseismic slip in the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake: A new geodetic inversion

The 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake (March 28, 1964;M _w =9.2) caused crustal deformation over an area of approximately 140,000 km² in south central Alaska. In this study geodetic and geologic measurements of this surface deformation were inverted for the slip distribution on the 1964 rupture surface. Previous seismologic, geologic, and geodetic studies of this region were used to constrain the geometry of the fault surface. In the Kodiak Island region, 28 rectangular planes (50 by 50 km each) oriented 218°N, with a dip varying from 8^o nearest the Aleutian trench to 9^o below Kodiak Island, define the rupture surface. In the Prince William Sound region 39 planes with variable dimensions (40 by 50 km near the trench, 64 by 50 km inland) and orientation (218°N in the west and 270°N in the east) were used to approximate the complex faulting. Prior information was introduced to constrain offshore dip-slip values, the strike-slip component, and slip variation between adjacent planes. Our results suggest a variable dip-slip component with local slip maximums occurring near Montague Island (up to 30 m), further to the east near Kayak Island (up to 14 m), and trenchward of the northeast segment of Kodiak Island (up to 17m). A single fault plane dipping 30°NW, corresponding to the Patton Bay fault, with a slip value of 8 m modeled the localized but large uplift on Montague Island. The moment calculated on the basis of our geodetically derived slip model of 5.0×10²⁹ dyne cm is 30% less than the seismic moment of 7.5×10²⁹ dyne cm calculated from long-period surface waves (Kanamori, 1970) but is close to the seismic moment of 5.9×10²⁹ dyne cm obtained byKikuchi andFukao (1987).     

Relation between the Subducting Plate and Seismicity Associated with the Great 1964 Alaska Earthquake

—Tectonic studies of the great 1964 Alaska earthquake have underappreciated the nature of the subducted plate in influencing seismicity. We compare seismological observations in the Prince William and Kodiak areas that ruptured during this earthquake with the corresponding morphology and structure of the subducting plate. The upper plate geology (Prince William Terrane) and velocity structure are the same in both areas. In the Prince William area where the Yakutat Terrane subducted, the energy released and coupling were stronger than above the Kodiak subduction zone where thick trench sediment subducts. The conjecture that lower plate character or the amount of subducted sediment affects coupling helps explain variability in seismology, geodetic inversions and the horizontal velocity of GPS stations.     

Seasonal Seismicity of Northern California Before the Great 1906 Earthquake

—?During the late nineteenth century, coastal parts of northern California experienced seismicity which was more intense than at any other time in its historical record and was concentrated in Spring. The seasonal character of this anomalous seismicity was statistically significant from the 1880s, if not earlier, until the time of the great 1906 earthquake. It can be explained as a result of seasonal stress transients caused by the large seasonal sediment loads which accumulated in coastal bays that overlie active strike-slip faults, as a result of hydraulic mining of gold in inland areas. Such localised loading will increase the absolute vertical stress and reduce the absolute horizontal stress, thus facilitating shear failure by unclamping vertical fault planes. However, rather than simply influencing the timing of earthquakes which would otherwise have occurred anyway sometime later, this process appears to have affected the character of the region's seismicity, causing a sequence of magnitude 5–6 earthquakes which propagated outward from these coastal depocentres. These results have three important implications. First, the proposed physical mechanism is only feasible provided the deepest continental crust in this region has a viscosity no greater than ～10¹⁷?Pa?s, giving it a Maxwell time of the order of weeks. These observations of seasonal seismicity thus suggest that such low viscosities are reasonable, a conclusion which has been difficult to establish using other evidence. They indicate that future calculations of the stress field in this region, for instance for investigating the role of earthquake triggering, should incorporate this response by lower-crustal flow, not just the immediate elastic effect. Second, the conclusion that seasonal stress transients caused by seasonal changes in surface processes can affect seismicity, has important implications for hazard assessment. It raises the possibility that surface processes may influence the seasonal timing and character of seismicity in other regions also. Finally, it indicates that the decades of intense seismicity, widely interpreted as precursory activity to the 1906 earthquake, were atypical of the longer-term record. Analogous sequences of moderate-sized events cannot necessarily be expected to provide advance warning of future large earthquakes in this region.     

Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound,Alaska

A coastal ocean extended Prince William Sound nowcast/forecast system (EPWS/NFS) has been running semi-automatically for an extended domain of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska for 2 years. To determine the performance of this modeling system, an assessment is conducted. EPWS/NFS and PWS/NFS (viz., its predecessor) nowcasts are compared with observed time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level (CSL) at a few stations, and to velocity profiles from a moored ADCP. With the extension of the model domain to include the continental shelf outside PWS and forced by an operational global ocean model (Global-Navy Coastal Ocean Model (Global-NCOM)) and a 2D tidal model at the open boundary, EPWS/NFS has achieved significant improvement over PWS/NFS, which covered only PWS per se, for most of the predicted variables in this study. In both magnitude and phase, EPWS/NFS accurately predicts the coastal tide fluctuations, as well as M2 tidal currents in Central Sound, although significant errors in coastal tides exist during some spring and neap tide cycles. Other than for the tidal motions, EPWS/NFS generally produces less energetic CSL and velocity variations than those observed. In comparison, although PWS/NFS well predicts the coastal tides, it suffers from the absence of low-frequency CSL variations, as well as misprediction of M2 tidal currents in Central Sound. For 40 h low-passed PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS velocities, significant phase error occurs during the model–date comparison period, while EPWS/NFS nowcasts generally produce less root-mean-square-error (rmse) and smaller correlations with the observations than PWS/NFS does. Both observations and EPWS/NFS have similar vertical profiles of baroclinic velocity standard deviations, but some substantial discrepancies occur in the velocity direction. Also, in the Central Sound, EPWS/NFS predicts well the SST seasonal cycle and a major cooling event during the summer 2005. However, for periods shorter than 1 week, both PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS SST underestimated the observed fluctuations by an order of magnitude.     

汶川Mw7.9地震波在华北地区触发的地震活动

地震的相互作用早已被人们所知,如大地震之后在震中附近地区发生的大量余震活动,然而,近十几年来地震学家认识到:大地震也可以导致几百千米至上千千米外的区域地震活动性的显著增加(如,Hill et al.,1993;Brodsky et al,2000,Gomberg et al.,21301,2004;Prcjean et al.,2004,Freed,2005,Hill and Prejcan,2007,VelRgco et al.,2008).     

Distribution Characteristics of the Seismicity of Zipingpu Reservoir Region after the Wenchuan Earthquake

815 earthquakes recorded by 12 seismic stations of the Zipingpu reservoir seismic network in 2009 were relocated using the double difference algorithm to analyze the seismic activity of the Zipingpu reservoir.Relocation results show that the earthquakes are concentrated relatively in three zones.The distribution characteristics of focal depth are obviously different among different concentration zones.This means earthquakes in different concentration zones may have different causes.Compared to relocation of...     

Potential for photoenhanced toxicity of spilled oil in Prince William Sound and Gulf of Alaska waters

Photoenhanced toxicity is the increase in the toxicity of a chemical in the presence of ultraviolet light (UV) compared to a standard laboratory test conducted with fluorescent lighting (minimal UV). Oil products, weathered oil, and specific polycyclic aromatic compounds present in oil are 2 to greater than 1000 times more toxic in the presence of UV. The photoenhanced toxicity of oil to fish and aquatic invertebrates appears to occur through a process of photosensitization, rather than photomodification of the aqueous phase oil. In photosensitization, the bioaccumulated chemical transfers light energy to other molecules causing toxicity through tissue damage rather than a narcosis mechanism. The available evidence indicates that phototoxic components of oil are specific 3-5 ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heterocycles. Determinants of photoenhanced toxicity include the extent of oil bioaccumulation in aquatic organisms and the spectra and intensity of UV exposure. No studies have specifically investigated the photoenhanced toxicity of spilled oil in Alaska waters. Although there are substantial uncertainties, the results of this evaluation indicate there is potential for photoenhanced toxicity of spilled oil in Prince William Sound and the Gulf of Alaska. The potential hazard of photoenhanced toxicity may be greatest for embryo and larval stages of aquatic organisms that are relatively translucent to UV and inhabit the photic zone of the water column and intertidal areas. Photoenhanced toxicity should be considered in oil spill response because the spatial and temporal extent of injury to aquatic organisms may be underestimated if based on standard laboratory bioassays and existing toxicity databases. Additionally, the choice of counter measures and oil removal operations may influence the degree of photoenhanced toxicity.     

Seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia Earthquake Region Between 1962 and 1998

The Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is part of the Saxothuringian Earthquake Province. It is an isolated area of active intraplate seismicity. Observations of the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 are summarized. More than 17000 earthquakes have been detected microseismically with M _L reaching from about –1.5 to 4.6. In the considered time interval, the catalogue of Vogtland events can be regarded as complete for magnitudes larger than 1.8. The region is well known for the occurrence of earthquakes clustered contemporarily in time and space. In this study, altogether 82 clusters are defined. Among them, clusters with swarm properties are distinguished from clusters with main shock accompanied by fore- and aftershocks, and from single events. 48 swarms are detected.The magnitude-frequency distribution of the maximum magnitudes of the clusters is studied. In the magnitude range 1.8  M _L  3.1, a bimodal character of the magnitude-frequency distribution is detected for both swarms and nonswarm-like events. The slope is greater for larger magnitudes than in the small-magnitude range. A gap in the magnitude-frequency distribution of clusters is observed for maximum magnitudes between 3.1 and 4.3. Furthermore, clusters themselves are characterized by the b-values of their magnitude-frequency distributions. Swarms show b-values greater than 0.7. Epicenters of swarms are confined to a few subregions. Epicenters of nonswarm-like events are distributed over a larger region than epicenters of swarms but hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like clusters may be located close to each other.The envelope of the distribution of magnitudes as a function of time is investigated. In the considered time interval, a statistically significant recurrence of strong events of about 72 months is discovered by a frequency analysis. Comparing the seismicity between 1897 and 1908 with the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 temporal variations in the recurrence become obvious. The Nový Kostel zone is discussed in more detail. The average hypocenters of swarms are located on a SW-dipping fault segment that intersects the Eger Rift in NNW-SSE direction.Discussing properties of the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region it is concluded that the increased seismicity may be explained by the presence of fluids on deep reaching faults. The occurrence of swarms, their variability as well as the small distances between hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like events point to strong lateral and possibly temporal changes of the properties of the fault system.     

Feasibility of Deep Nutrients Delivery into a Prince William Sound Beach for the Bioremediation of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Delivery of dissolved chemicals to potentially bioremediate oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill was investigated at Smith Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska. Two transects for tracer application were installed: one at a clean area and another at an oiled area. Tracer delivery occurred under ambient pressure through manifolds. Lithium in LiBr/sea water solution was the inert tracer, and the solution (82.6 mg/L of lithium) was released at a flow rate of 0.23 L/min for 58.5 h. While maintaining the flow rate, the solution was switched to sea water (i.e., 0.0 mg/L of lithium) for 16 h. The results show that the tracer moved landward with rising tides and seaward with falling tides. The plume got deeper moving landward and shallower moving seaward of the manifold. Thus, in situations where oil biodegradation is limited by the availability of nutrients or oxygen, applying these chemicals by this technique would allow them to reach entrapped oil seaward of the manifold from below. The seaward plume traveling speed (around 2.0 m/d) suggests that this technique is logistically feasible from a hydraulic point of view.     

2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震在喀什-乌恰交汇区的动态触发活动

基于新疆区域数字地震台网台站的观测资料,采用离散波数法、包络函数分析和β统计值检验的方法,初步研究尼泊尔M_S8.1地震对喀什-乌恰交汇区小震活动的动态触发作用。结果表明：尼泊尔8.1级地震在喀什-乌恰交汇区接收点产生的动态应力变化超过触发阈值;并检测到该地震面波到达后在此交汇区出现了8次小震事件。β统计值结果显示,8.1级地震后此交汇区的地震活动性发生了较明显的改变,特别是地震25天后地震活动率增强较为明显。综合分析认为,尼泊尔8.1级地震对喀什-乌恰交汇区的小震活动具有动态触发作用,触发时间既存在面波通过后即刻触发,也有滞后一段时间的延时触发。     

An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwaka Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilize shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying recovery of many PWS bird populations.     

龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型构建

以龙门山地区为研究区, 利用1931年至2010年历史地震数据, 时限取80年, 时间间隔取10年, 构建地震活动性广义极值模型, 估计龙门山地区震级上限和强震重现水平。 结果表明龙门山地区地震活动性广义极值模型服从具有有限上界的Weibull分布, 震级上限为8.3, 未来20年、 50年、 100年龙门山地区的强震重现水平分别为7.9、 8.1、 8.1。 起始年由1930年至1933年逐年平移, 时间间隔不变, 震级上限及强震重现水平的计算结果相差不到0.2级, 表明本文构建的龙门山地区广义极值模型具有一定程度的稳定性, 可为地震区划以及地震危险性分析研究提供参考。     

Analysis on Double-difference Earthquake Location and the Seismicity Pattern of the Yangjiang Earthquake Sequences

The locations of about 400 earthquakes in Yangjiang, Guangdong Province are determined using the double, difference earthquake location algorithm （DDA）. The seismicity pattern becomes concentrated from discrete grids. The rupture characteristics of the Yangjiang earthquake sequence show a conjugated distribution in NW and NE directions. The major distribution trends NE and dips NE with an angle of 30^o and a length of 30km,and the minor distribution trends NW and dips SE with an angle of 30^o and a length of 20km. The focal depth is 5km - 15km. The distribution of the Enping earthquake sequence,which is not far from Yangjiang,is NW-trending. The relationship between hypocenter distribution and geological structure is discussed.     

Oil persistence on beaches in Prince William Sound - a review of SCAT surveys conducted from 1989 to 2002

In 2002, 13 years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), 39 selected sites in Prince William Sound (PWS) were re-surveyed following established shoreline cleanup assessment team (SCAT) field observation procedures to document surface and sub-surface oiling conditions in shoreline sediments and to compare results with those from previous Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Team (SCAT) surveys and other surveys in PWS. The selected sites are locations where EVOS oil persisted in 1992, at the time the Federal and State On-Scene Coordinators determined that the cleanup was complete and that further cleanup activities would provide no net environmental benefit. These sites had been included in a 2001 NOAA survey of shoreline oiling conditions and account for 88% of the sub-surface oil residues (SSO) oil documented by that study. The 2002 field survey found isolated occurrences of residual EVOS surface oil residues (SO) in the form of weathered asphalt pavement at 15 of the 39 sites. This residual SO typically consisted of asphalt in mixed sand/gravel substrate, located within a wave shadow effect created by boulders or bedrock in the upper intertidal to supratidal zone. Residual SO, expressed as a continuous oil cover, was less than 200 m(2) within the approximately 111,120 m(2) surveyed. A total of 1182 pits were dug at locations where SSO residues were present in 1992. Six of the 39 sites and 815 (68%) of the pits contained no residual SSO. Eighty-three percent of pits with SSO residues were found primarily in middle to upper intertidal locations. SSO residues commonly occurred in a discontinuous approximately 3 cm thick band 5-10 cm below the boulder/cobble or pebble/gravel veneer. The SO and SSO occurrences in the 2002 survey closely match the locations where they were found in 1992 and earlier surveys; however, in 2002 residual SSO patches are more discontinuous and thinner than they were in the earlier surveys. These sites are biased toward SSO persistence; those that have SSO residues represent less than 0.5% of the originally oiled shorelines in PWS. Despite evidence of continued oil weathering, both at the surface and in the sub-surface, it is clear that the natural cleaning processes at these particular locations are slow. The slow weathering rates are a consequence of the oil residue being incorporated in finer sediments (fine sand, silt, mix) and isolated from active weathering processes as boulders and outcrops, shallow bedrock asperities, or boulder-armoring create wave shadows and limit effective physical action on shorelines.     

Seismicity of the Indian Peninsular Shield from Regional Earthquake Data

--In this comprehensive study of seismicity and seismotectonics of the peninsular Indian shield region, seismic data of regional earthquakes spanning two decades (1978-1997), obtained at Gauribidanur seismic array (India) and integrated where necessary with data from other seismological stations in the region, have been analyzed in detail. With a slow rate of stress accumulation, the shield is found to have low to moderate seismicity that takes into account a couple of earthquakes of magnitude slightly larger than 6. The frequency-magnitude analysis of the data set gives a b value of 1.18. The spatio-temporal pattern of occurrences of the earthquakes combined with their magnitude and seismic energy distribution is consistent with the view that the peninsular seismicity is low to moderate and episodic in nature. Regions of moderate seismicity and its low-grade counterpart constituted by microearthquakes (magnitude less than 3), appear correlated to the areas traversed by known geologic faults and subfaults, shear zones, and other such tectonic features. Microearthquakes represent about two-thirds of the total regional seismic events during the past two decades.     

2010年太康ML5.0级地震前地震活动特征

通过对2010年10月24日太康ML5.0级地震前的资料进行回顾研究,认为在这次地震前,存在区域中等地震活动增强、ML≥2.0级弱震空区、弱震条带、地震平静及霍山地震后窗口高频次异常等异常图象.它又一次为该区对中等地震的监测预报积累了资料.     

闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像

闽粤两省强烈地震多发生在沿海地区,且福建南日岛至广东南澳一线的泉州－汕头地震带地震活动尤为突出。历史上东南沿海地震带曾发生过４次７级以上大地震,而其中３次都发生在泉－汕段海域,继华南地区本世纪著名的１９１８年广东南澳７．３级地震后,１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡南部又发生７．３级强震,这在经济发达,人口稠密的闽粤沿海地区引起了极大关注。本文通过历史强震活动资料,分析闽粤沿海与台湾海峡强震在时间进程,