Regional and interannual variability in sea level over 2002–2009 based on satellite altimetry, Argo float data and GRACE ocean mass

In this study, we have estimated the different sea level components (observed sea level from satellite altimetry, steric sea level from in situ hydrography—including Argo profiling floats, and ocean mass from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; GRACE), in terms of regional and interannual variability, over 2002–2009. We compute the steric sea level using different temperature (and salinity) data sets processed by different groups (SCRIPPS, CLS, IPRC, and NOAA) and first focus on the regional variability in steric and altimetry-based sea level. In addition to El Nino–La Nina signatures, the observed and steric sea level data show clear impact of three successive Indian Ocean Dipoles in 2006, 2007, and 2008 in the Indian Ocean. We next study the spatial trend patterns in ocean mass signal by comparing GRACE observations over the oceans with observed minus steric sea level. While in some regions, reasonably good agreement is observed, discrepancy is noticed in some others due to still large regional trend errors in Argo and GRACE data, as well as to a possible (unknown) deep ocean contribution. In terms of global mean, interannual variability in altimetry-based minus steric sea level and GRACE-based ocean mass appear significantly correlated. However, large differences are reported when short-term trends are estimated (using both GRACE and Argo data). This prevents us to draw any clear conclusion on the sea level budget over the recent years from the comparison between altimetry-based, steric sea level, and GRACE-based ocean mass trends, nor does it not allow us to constrain the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction to apply to GRACE-based ocean mass term using this observational approach.     

Evaluation of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget between 1993 and 2014

Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components—mass and steric—is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods—1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014—using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993–2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations, consistent with other studies. This is due to the lack of sufficient estimates of the amount of natural water mass cycling between the oceans and hydrosphere. For the more recent period (2005–2014), we find closure in both the long-term trend and for month-to-month variations. This is also consistent with previous studies.     

非潮汐海洋运动对地球动力学扁率变化的贡献

通过考察全球海洋环流数值模型以及TOPEX/Poseidon海洋测高数据,得到结论：1997/1998年后的部分J2异常变化可能来自海洋环流变化导致的质量重新分布,具体地说是太平洋环流变化导致的从高纬地区向低纬地区的质量迁移. 本工作表明来自于海洋内部温盐效应的变化对J2异常变化有重要贡献,进一步证实了卫星激光测距资料所得结果的可靠性.     

全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望

海平面变化是全球气候系统变化的一个组成部分,是环境变化的重要指标,也会影响沿海区域及岛屿的生态环境甚至存亡.全球海平面变化由海水质量变化和比容海平面变化构成.海水质量变化主要是由于两极冰盖和高山区的冰川融化流入海洋所致;比容海平面变化是由海水的温度和盐度变化所引起的,其中温度变化是最主要的因素.本文介绍了海平面变化各种监测技术的发展过程,并对海平面变化的研究现状进行了总结.所有研究成果均表明,近100多年以来,全球海平面一直处于上升态势;近几十年以来,海平面呈现加快上升并且越来越快的趋势.目前仍然存在一些问题:人们还没有完全掌握海平面变化规律,对未来海平面变化预测有较大不确定性;深海缺乏实测数据;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的变化规律以及对海平面的影响;GRACE陆地与海洋信号无法完全分离以及GRACE与GRACE-FO之间的一致性分析等.这些问题都需要进一步开展研究.     

全球平均海平面上升的瞬时速率

在确定海平面上升速率时,传统方法是利用最小二乘拟合获取特定时间段内的平均速率.事实上,由于海平面是一种非稳态变化,其速率随着时间变化.本文使用集成经验模态分解获取海平面变化在2002-2014年间的非线性趋势,然后通过三次样条函数平滑拟合非线性趋势得到连续的一阶导数,即为海平面变化的瞬时速率.结果表明,全球平均海平面的瞬时速率先降后升：从2002的2.7 mm·a^-1缓慢下降至2010年的2.5 mm·a^-1,然后上升至2014年的3.8 mm·a^-1.通过分析海平面上升各个贡献成分的瞬时速率,发现该上升主要由海水质量增加引起.在2002-2014年间,格陵兰岛冰川消融对海平面上升瞬时速率的贡献从0.51 mm·a^-1上升至0.85mm·a^-1,南极冰川消融的贡献则从0.12 mm·a^-1上升至0.34 mm·a^-1.陆地水储量对海平面上升起抑制作用,但该抑制作用呈下降趋势,其瞬时速率从-0.24 mm·a^-1增加到0.03 mm·a^-1.比容海平面的瞬时速率表现为下降趋势,从1.6 mm·a^-1减小至1.0 mm·a^-1.这表明在全球尺度上,海水质量对海平面上升的贡献正在增加,截止到2014年,海水质量的贡献已经接近70%.     

近四年全球海水质量变化及其时空特征分析

本文利用卫星重力、卫星测高和海洋温盐数据反演计算全球海水质量变化,并分析其时空变化特征.卫星重力数据利用2003年1月~2006年12月的GRACE月时变重力场球谐系数,同时考虑替换一阶项和C₂₀项,并进行了相关误差滤波、高斯滤波和陆地水文信号泄漏改正,计算得到海洋等效水高变化;利用相同时间跨度的卫星测高数据和海洋温度、盐度水文观测数据,计算全球海平面变化和比容海平面变化,反演得到海水质量变化.反演的两种海水质量变化的年际变化特征一致性较好.三种数据得到的长期趋势变化,与1993~2003年的结果相比,可以看出,海水质量变化加速,并已成为全球海平面上升的主要因素.     

Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin. However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled climate models from the CMIP5 project are also used. The models lead us to the same conclusions concerning the halosteric origin of the trend patterns.     

Regional patterns of observed sea level change: insights from a 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice hindcast

A global eddy-admitting ocean/sea-ice simulation driven over 1958–2004 by daily atmospheric forcing is used to evaluate spatial patterns of sea level change between 1993 and 2001. In the present study, no data assimilation is performed. The model is based on the Nucleus for European Models of the Ocean code at the 1/4° resolution, and the simulation was performed without data assimilation by the DRAKKAR project. We show that this simulation correctly reproduces the observed regional sea level trend patterns computed using satellite altimetry data over 1993–2001. Generally, we find that regional sea level change is best simulated in the tropical band and northern oceans, whereas the Southern Ocean is poorly simulated. We examine the respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to the total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions. Generally, the model results show that most regional sea level changes arise from temperature changes in the upper 750 m of the ocean. However, contributions of salinity changes and deep steric changes can be locally important. We also propose a map of ocean bottom pressure changes. Finally, we assess the robustness of such a model by comparing this simulation with a second simulation performed by MERCATOR-Ocean based on the same core model, but differing by its short length of integration (1992–2001) and its surface forcing data set. The long simulation presents better performance over 1993–2001 than the short simulation, especially in the Southern Ocean where a long adjustment time seems to be needed. In memory of my little brother Jean-Eudes, whose thirst for science filled out the rich discussions we had about my investigations and his job as user-service provider for MERCATOR-Ocean.     

Modeled steric and mass-driven sea level change caused by Greenland Ice Sheet melting

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been a major contributor to sea level change in the recent past. Global and regional sea level variations caused by melting of the GIS are investigated with the finite element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). We consider changes of local density (steric effects), mass inflow into the ocean, redistribution of mass, and gravitational effects. Five melting scenarios are simulated, where mass losses of 100, 200, 500, and 1000 Gt/yr are converted to a continuous volume flux that is homogeneously distributed along the coast of Greenland south of 75°N. In addition, a scenario of regional melt rates is calculated from daily ice melt characteristics. The global mean sea level modeled with FESOM increases by about 0.3 mm/yr if 100 Gt/yr of ice melts, which includes eustatic and steric sea level change. In the global mean the steric contribution is one order of magnitude smaller than the eustatic contribution. Regionally, especially in the North Atlantic, the steric contribution leads to strong deviations from the global mean sea level change. The modeled pattern mainly reflects the structure of temperature and salinity change in the upper ocean. Additionally, small steric variations occur due to local variability in the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mass loss has also affects on the gravitational attraction by the ice sheet, causing spatially varying sea level change mainly near the GIS, but also at greater distances. This effect is accounted for by using Green's functions.     

Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheet Mass Changes and Effects on Global Sea Level

Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the “real” sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.     

利用GRACE数据反演东海沉积物变化

GRACE卫星的成功发射为海底沉积物的监测提供了新的方法.利用2003-2014年间的GRACERL05数据,采用同期的测高数据对海面高变化进行改正,使用水文模式数据和基于均一假设的尺度因子估计方法处理泄漏误差,反演了东海地区的沉积物变化情况,并对GIA效应进行了改正.结果表明:东海入海口处沉积物的平均变化速率为5.44±0.88mm·a^-1,最大值出现在浙江沿海地区,变化速率为6~7mm·a^-1;在空间分布上,呈现河口处沉积速率大,远离河口的大洋地区沉积速率小的特征.在时空分布上均与实测数据很好的吻合.沉积物变化时间序列的周年项振为6.8cm,周年变化主要与东海泥沙扩散路径相关的海洋环流模式有关;半周年项和两周年项振幅分别为0.6cm和0.7cm,这两项变化主要与长江流域降水引起的土壤侵蚀变化有关.最后,分析讨论了本文沉积物监测方法推广到其他地区的适用性和局限性.     

Joint altimetric and in-situ data assimilation using the GRACE mean dynamic topography: a 1993–1998 hindcast experiment in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The altimetric satellite signal is the sum of the geoid and the dynamic topography, but only the latter is relevant to oceanographic applications. Poor knowledge of the geoid has prevented oceanographers from fully exploiting altimetric measurements through its absolute component, and applications have concentrated on ocean variability through analyses of sea level anomalies. Recent geodetic missions like CHAMP, GRACE and the forthcoming GOCE are changing this perspective. In this study, data assimilation is used to reconstruct the Tropical Pacific Ocean circulation during the 1993–1996 period. Multivariate observations are assimilated into a primitive equation ocean model (OPA) using a reduced order Kalman filter (the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter). A 6-year (1993–1998) hindcast experiment is analyzed and validated by comparison with observations. In this experiment, the new capability offered by an observed absolute dynamic topography (built using the GRACE geoid to reference the altimetric data) is used to assimilate, in an efficient way, the in-situ temperature profiles from the TAO/TRITON moorings together with the T/P and ERS1&2 altimetric signal. GRACE data improves compatibility between both observation data sets. The difficulties encountered in this regard in previous studies such as Parent et al. (J Mar Syst 40–41:381–401, 2003) are now circumvented. This improvement helps provide more efficient data assimilation, as evidenced, by assessing the results against independent data. This leads in particular to significantly more realistic currents and vertical thermal structures.     

Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from GRACE,steric-corrected altimetry,in situ bottom pressure records,and hydrographic observations

An annual amplitude of ∼18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and steric-corrected altimetry from 2003 to 2011. The annual mass variations in the region dominate the mean SLV, and generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The annual steric component of the mean SLV is relatively small (<3 cm) and out of phase of the mass-induced SLV. In situ bottom pressure records at the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. In addition, the horizontal water mass flux of the Red Sea estimated from GRACE and steric-corrected altimetry is validated by hydrographic observations.     

Resolving sea level contributions by identifying fingerprints in time-variable gravity and altimetry

We have studied the ability of the GRACE gravimetry mission and Jason-1 altimetry to resolve ice and glacier induced contributions to sea level rise, by means of a fingerprint method. Here, the signals from ice sheet and land glacier changes, steric changes, glacial isostatic adjustment and terrestrial hydrology are assumed to have fixed spatial patterns. In a joint inversion using GRACE and Jason-1 data the unknown temporal components can then be estimated by least-squares. In total, we estimate temporal components for up to ∼ 80 individual patterns. From a propagation of the full error-covariance from GRACE and a diagonal error-covariance from Jason-1 altimetry we find that: (1) GRACE almost entirely explains the mass related parameters in the joint inversion, (2) an inversion using only Jason-1 data has a marginal ability to estimate the mass related parameters, while the steric parameters have much better formal accuracy. In terms of mean sea level rise the steric patterns have a maximum formal accuracy of 0.01 mm for an 11 week running mean. In general, strong negative error correlations (ρ < − 0.9) exists between the high and low elevation parts of the ice sheet drainage basins, when those are estimated independently. The largest formal errors found are in the order of 40 Gton for small high elevation subbasins in the southern Greenland ice sheet, which are difficult to separate. In a simplified joint inversion, merging high and low elevation basins, we have investigated the ability of the GRACE and Jason-1 data to separate the geocenter motion into a present-day contribution and a contribution from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We find that the GIA related signal is larger than the present-day component with a maximum of −0.71 mm/year in the Z direction. Total geocenter motion rates are found to be −0.28, 0.43, −1.08 mm/year for the X, Y and Z components, respectively. The inversion results have been propagated to the Jason-1 along-track measurements. Over the time period considered, we see that a large part of the variability in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian ocean can be explained by our inversion results. The applied inversion method therefore seems a feasible way to separate steric from mass induced sea level changes. At the same time, the joint inversion would benefit from more advanced parameterizations, which may aid in fitting remaining signal from altimetry.     

GRACE重力卫星探测南极冰盖质量平衡及其不确定性

2002年GRACE重力卫星的成功发射为南极冰盖质量平衡的研究提供了重力探测的新纪元.本文利用美国德克萨斯大学CSR公布的2003年1月到2013年12月期间的RL05版本GRACE月重力场数据,采用最优平均核函数法和组合滤波法两种GRACE后处理方法反演了南极冰盖质量的时空变化.结果表明:在2003—2013年期间南极冰盖物质平衡呈明显的负增长状态,质量变化趋势为-163±50Gt/a(GW13)、-129±41Gt/a(IJ05)、-81±27Gt/a(W12a),加速度为-8±10Gt/a2,质量消融的主要区域分布在西南极阿蒙森海岸和南极半岛的北部.另外本文还重点探讨了可能影响到估算结果的各项误差及不确定性,分析结果显示影响南极冰盖质量平衡估算结果的最大误差源为GIA改正.通过假设检验和信息准则对时间序列分析中拟合参数的合理选取进行了探讨和分析,在联合周年项、半年项和S2、K2、K1潮汐混频项进行拟合分析时发现K1项对拟合结果的加速度影响比其他周期项稍大,尽管考虑该项的合理性因当前GRACE数据时间序列长度有限而无法确切证实,但K1项的影响值得后续关注.对比两种GRACE后处理方法的结果发现:当采用的数据时间跨度一致,误差改正方法相同,两种相异的后处理方法,其估算结果也具有较好的一致性.     

GRACE terrestrial water storage data assimilation based on the ensemble four-dimensional variational method PODEn4DVar:Method and validation

Seasonal and interannual changes in the Earth's gravity field are mainly due to mass exchange among the atmosphere,ocean,and continental water sources.The terrestrial water storage changes,detected as gravity changes by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) satellites,are mainly caused by precipitation,evapotranspiration,river transportation and downward infiltration processes.In this study,a land data assimilation system LDAS-G was developed to assimilate the GRACE terrestrial water storage(TWS) data into the Community Land Model(CLM3.5) using the POD-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method PODEn4 DVar,disaggregating the GRACE large-scale terrestrial water storage changes vertically and in time,and placing constraints on the simulation of vertical hydrological variables to improve land surface hydrological simulations.The ideal experiments conducted at a single point and assimilation experiments carried out over China by the LDAS-G data assimilation system showed that the system developed in this study improved the simulation of land surface hydrological variables,indicating the potential of GRACE data assimilation in large-scale land surface hydrological research and applications.     

Seasonal water storage change of the Yangtze River basin detected by GRACE

1 Introduction Large-scale mass redistribution, or temporal varia- tion of mass within the Earth system, the driving force of interactions between solid Earth and geophysical fluids envelope (i.e., atmosphere, ocean, and hydro- sphere), is an important geophysical process critical to human life. Most of the interactions between solid Earth and the atmosphere/oceans happen at seasonal and inter-annual time scales. One important contribu- tor of mass redistribution at seasonal and inter-annual …     

冰盖消融的海平面指纹变化及其对GRACE监测结果的影响

全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research,CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05）,结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a^-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a^-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a^-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚）,高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.     

联合GRACE和ICESat数据分离南极冰川均衡调整(GIA)信号

2002年发射的GRACE重力卫星为南极冰盖质量平衡提供了一种新的测量方式,但由于南极GIA模型的不确定较大,进而影响GRACE结果的可靠性.本文联合2003—2009年的GRACE和ICESat等数据实现了南极GIA信号的分离,联合方法所分离的GIA不依赖于不确定性很大的冰负荷等假设模型,而是直接基于卫星观测数据估算而来的,具有更大的可靠性.在分离过程中,本文提出了冰流速度加权改正法和GPS球谐拟合改正法对GIA结果进行精化,同时引入了南极GPS观测站的位移数据对分离的GIA进行详细的评估和验证,GPS验证表明经过冰流速度加权和GPS球谐拟合双改正后的GIA结果精度明显得到提高.最后本文利用所分离的GIA对GRACE和ICESat结果进行了改正,得到2003—2009年南极冰盖质量变化的趋势为-66.7±54.5 Gt/a(GRACE)和-77.2±21.5Gt/a(ICESat),相比采用其他的GIA模型,本文的GIA结果使GRACE和ICESat这两种不同观测技术得到的南极冰盖质量变化结果更加趋于一致.     

The seasonal cycle of redistribution of atmospheric mass between continent and ocean in the Northern Hemisphere

Using NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses,we studied the seasonal cycle of redistribution of air mass between continents and oceans over the Northern Hemisphere.Our results demonstrate that air mass in the Northern Hemisphere shifts clearly between continents and oceans when the season cycles.In July,the air mass reaches its lowest over Eurasia and its highest over the Pacific,and the opposite occurs in January.However,a different scenario is observed over the north Atlantic;the accumulated air mass reaches its maximum there in May.The maintenance of the accumulation or loss of air mass in a region is found to be related to the areal mean air mass flux divergence and the difference between precipitation and evaporation in an air column.The zonal-vertical circulations change with season,with the air ascent and decent reversed between land and sea.Besides,there also exists a noticeable difference of water vapor content of the air between continents and oceans,and this difference is season-dependent.Physically,the vapor content is able to significantly affect the atmosphere in absorbing solar short-and earth’s long-wave radiations,hence influencing atmospheric thermal conditions.The land-sea thermal contrasts inclusive of the diabatic heating rate changes their signs with season going on,resulting in the reversal of orientations of the temperature gradient.These thermal forcings not only facilitate the formation of the monsoons but also indirectly induce the seasonal cycle of the air mass exchanging over regions between continents and oceans.