On the IAU 2000/2006 precession–nutation and comparison with other models and VLBI observations

In this paper, we discuss the fundamental aspects of the semi-analytical precession–nutation models that were adopted by IAU Resolutions in 2000 and 2006. We show that no significant discrepancies appear between those models (Mathews et al., J Geophys Res 107:B4, ETG 3-1–3-26, 2002, Capitaine et al., Astron Astrophys 412:567– 586, 2003) and other semi-analytical solutions or the INPOP06 numerical integration (Fienga et al., Astron Astrophys 477:315–327, 2008), especially for the quadratic terms. We also report on the most recent comparisons of the models with VLBI observations. We have employed different empirical models to fit the residuals, in attempting to characterize the nature of the observed curvature. The efficiencies of those empirical models are compared and their interpretations in terms of physical mechanisms are discussed. We show that a combination of linear and 18.6-year corrections is the most credible model for explaining the currently observed residuals, but that a longer span of observations is required before the true character of the effect can be determined. We note that the predictions from the ERA-2005 theory (Krasinsky, Celest Mech Dyn Astron 96:169–217, 2006) have diverged from recent VLBI results and suggest that the empirical nature of the ERA model is responsible.     

Day time observations of precursors at low latitude

Whistler precursors observed during day time at low latitude ground station Gulmarg (Geomag. Lat. 24 10 N) and their morphological features are reported. Transverse resonance interaction between whistler mode wave and counter streaming energetic electrons as the probable generation mechanism has been worked out. Minimum anisotropy required for wave amplification, parallel energy of resonating electrons and wave growth rate relevant to generation mechanism is studied.     

基于混沌时间序列的Volterra自适应滤波极移预报方法

针对极移复杂的时变特性, 根据混沌相空间坐标延迟重构理论, 提出一种基于Volterra自适应滤波的极移预报方法. 首先, 利用最小二乘拟合算法分离极移序列中的线性趋势项、钱德勒项和周年项, 获得线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值; 其次, 通过C-C关联积分法对最小二乘拟合残差序列进行相空间重构, 并利用小数据量法计算残差序列的最大Lyapunov指数验证其混沌特性, 在此基础上, 构建Volterra自适应滤波器对残差序列进行预测; 最后, 将线性极移、钱德勒极移和周年极移的外推值以及最小二乘拟合残差的预测值相加获得极移最终预报值. 利用国际地球自转服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的极移数据进行1--60d跨度预报, 并将预报结果分别与国际地球定向参数预报比较竞赛(Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign, EOP PCC)结果和IERS A公报发布的极移预报产品进行对比, 结果表明: 对于1--30d的短期预报, 该方法的预报精度与EOP PCC最优预报方法相当, 当预报跨度超过30d时, 该方法的预报精度低于EOP PCC最优预报方法, 优于参与EOP PCC的其他方法; 与IERS A公报相比, 该方法的短期预报效果较好, 当预报跨度增加时预报精度低于IERS A公报. 预报结果表明该方法更适合于极移短期预报.     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

Microarcsecond instability of the celestial reference frame

The fluctuation of the angular positions of reference extragalactic radio and optical sources under the influence of the irregular gravitational field of visible Galactic stars is considered. It is shown that these angular fluctuations range from a few up to hundreds of microarcseconds. This leads to a small rotation of the celestial reference frame. The non-diagonal coefficients of the rotation matrix are of the order of a microarcsecond. The temporal variation of these coefficients due to the proper motion of the foreground stars is of the order of one microsecond per 20 years. The celestial reference frame can therefore be considered inertial and homogeneous only to microarcsecond accuracy. Astrometric catalogues with microarcsecond accuracy will be unstable, and must be re-established every 20 years.     

On the “rotational angular momentum” of the oceans and the corresponding polar motion

Periodic polar motions caused by ocean tides are predicted. In the Liouville equations for rotational motion the complete excitation functions for the ocean tides have to be used. This does not depend on the fact that hydrodynamical ocean tide models do not consider the centrifugal acceleration. The observable polar motion of the Celestial Ephemeris Pole CEP (more exactly: the terrestrial location of the CEP) is tabulated for the ten ocean tides M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁, O₁, P₁, M f, M f′, M m, Ssa. Typical amplitudes for the largest ocean tides are 0.4 milliarcseconds. This is within the reach of geodetic VLBI and SLR observations.     

A New Protocol for the Astrometric Follow-up of Near Earth Asteroids

A new protocol was devised to improve the efficiency of astrometric follow-up observations of Near Earth Asteroids for the accurate determination of their orbits. It was implemented in the activities of the Spaceguard Central Node (SCN, a facility of the Spaceguard Foundation, established with the support of the European Space Agency) in the form of a Priority List. Here we describe this protocol and results obtained during five years of activity (2000–2004).     

Orbital structure of self-consistent triaxial stellar systems

We used a multipolar code to create, through the dissipationless collapses of systems of 1,000,000 particles, three self-consistent triaxial stellar systems with axial ratios corresponding to those of E4, E5 and E6 galaxies. The E5 and E6 models have small, but significant, rotational velocities although their total angular momenta are zero, that is, they exhibit figure rotation; the rotational velocity decreases with decreasing flattening of the models and for the E4 model it is essentially zero. Except for minor changes, probably caused by unavoidable relaxation effects, the systems are highly stable. The potential of each system was subsequently approximated with interpolating formulae yielding smooth potentials, stationary for the non-rotating model and stationary in the rotating frame for the rotating ones. The Lyapunov exponents could then be computed for randomly selected samples of the bodies that make up the different systems, allowing the recognition of regular and partially and fully chaotic orbits. Finally, the regular orbits were Fourier analyzed and classified using their locations on the frequency map. As it could be expected, the percentages of chaotic orbits increase with the flattening of the system. As one goes from E6 through E4, the fraction of partially chaotic orbits relative to that of fully chaotic ones increases, with the former surpassing the latter in model E4; the likely cause of this behavior is that triaxiality diminishes from E6 through E4, the latter system being almost axially symmetric. We especulate that some of the partially chaotic orbits may obey a global integral akin to the long axis component of angular momentum. Our results show that is perfectly possible to have highly stable triaxial models with large fractions of chaotic orbits, but such systems cannot have constant axial ratios from center to border: a slightly flattened reservoir of highly chaotic orbits seems to be mandatory for those systems.     

Numerical derivation of forced nutation terms for a rigid earth

We compare the results of a numerical integration of the Euler equations for a rigid Earth model covering a time span of 250 years with Kinoshita's theory for the forced nutations and with a new nutation series by Kinoshita and Souchay. We also present numerical corrections to some of the analytically derived nutation terms.     

Error analysis of proper motions in decination obtained for 807 Hipparcos stars from PZT observations over many decades

After publication of the Hipparcos catalogue (in 1997), a few new astrometric catalogues have appeared (TYCHO‐2, ARIHIP, etc.), as a good combination of the Hipparcos satellite and ground‐based data, to get more accurate coordinates and proper motions of stars than the Hipparcos catalogue ones. There are also investigations on improving the Hipparcos coordinates and proper motions by using the astrometric observations of latitude and universal time variations (via observed stars referred to Hipparcos catalogue), together with Hipparcos data, carried out during the last few years. These kind of ground‐based data were collected at the end of the last century by J. Vondrák. There are about 4.4 million optical observations made worldwide at 33 observatories and with 47 instruments during 1899.7–1992.0; our Belgrade visual zenith telescope data (for the period 1949.0‐1986.0) were included. First of all, these data were used to determine the Earth Orientation Parameters – EOP, but they are also useful for the opposite task – to check the accuracy of coordinates and proper motions of Hipparcos stars which were observed from the ground over many decades. Here, we use the latitude part of ten Photographic Zenith Tubes – PZT data (more than 0.9 million observations made at 6 observatories during the time interval 1915.8–1992.0), and combine them with the Hipparcos catalogue ones, with suitable weights, in order to check the proper motions in declination for 807 common PZT/Hipparcos stars (and to construct the PZT catalogue of μ_δ for 807 stars). Our standard errors in proper motions in declination of these stars are less than or equal to the Hipparcos ones for 423 stars. The mean value of standard errors of 313 stars observed over more than 20 years by PZT is 0.40 mas/yr. This is 53% of 0.75 mas/yr (the suitable value from the Hipparcos catalogue). We used the Least Squares Method – LSM with the linear model. Our results are in good agreement with the Earth Orientation Catalogue – EOC‐2 and the new Hipparcos ones. The main steps of the method and the investigations of systematic errors in determined proper motions (the proper motion differences with respect to the Hipparcos values, the EOC‐2 ones and the new Hipparcos ones, as a function of α, δ, and magnitude) are presented here. A comparison of the four catalogues by pairs shows that there is no significant relationship between the differences of their μ_δ values and magnitudes and color indices of the common 807 stars. All catalogues have relatively small random and systematic errors which are close to each other. However, the comparison shows that our formal errors are too small. They are underestimated by a factor of nearly 1.7 (for EOC‐2, it is 2.0) if we take the new Hipparcos (or Hipparcos) data as reference (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Evidences for extended sources and temporal modulations in molecular observations of C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) at the IRAM interferometer

Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) has been observed on October 5 and 25, 1996 and from March 6 to March 22, 1997 with the Institut de Radioastronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) interferometer at Plateau de Bure (France). Millimetre lines of HCN,HNC, CO, H₂CO, CH₃OH, H₂S, CS and SO were mapped with spatial resolutions of 1.5–3.5 arc sec. These observations allow us to investigate whether these species are released by the nucleus or produced in the coma by extended sources or photo-processes. The brightness distribution of the HCN J (1-0) line is consistent with release from the nucleus. The HNC J (1-0) distribution deviates from that of HCN in the innermost coma, and indicates production of HNC in the coma. This is in agreement with the heliocentric variation of the HNC/HCN ratio (Biver et al., 1997, Science 275, 1915; Irvine et al., 1998, this issue) and formation by chemical reactions (Rodgers and Charnley, 1998, Ap. J. 501, L227; Irvine et al., 1998, Nature 393, 547). There is clear evidence that SO is a photo dissociation product. The observations also confirm that H₂CO is mainly produced by an extended source, as first evidenced in comet P/Halley. The contribution of the nucleus to the total H₂CO production rate does not exceed 6%. The molecular lines have also been monitored hourly with the five antennas of the interferometer in single-dish mode. The line velocity shifts show aperiodic modulation linked to the nucleus rotation. The amplitude of the modulation differs from one species to another. The periodic modulation seen for the CO J (2-1) line on March 11 suggests that a significant fraction of CO is released continuously night and day by an active source situated at equatorial latitudes on the nucleus surface. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Orientation of the hipparcos frame with respect to the reference frames of the DE403/LE403 and DE405/LE405 ephemerides based on asteroid observations

Highly accurate observations of 116 asteroids are used to determine the orientation of the Hipparcos frame with respect to the reference frames of the DE403/LE403 and DE405/LE405 majorplanet ephemerides. These observations include the photographic observations of 15 asteroids obtained as part of the programs for observing selected asteroids and reduced to the Hipparcos frame using dependences, the space observations of 48 asteroids obtained by the Hipparcos satellite, and the presentday observations of 116 asteroid performed in the frame of the ACT catlog. The total number of observations used is more than 50 000 in the interval 1949–2007. Processing this series has yielded the following estimates of the orientation parameters: ω _x = 0.12 ± 0.08 mas yr^?1, ω _y = 0.66 ± 0.09 mas yr^?1, and ω _z = ?0.56 ± 0.16 mas yr^?1. This rotation may be attributable to a peculiarity of the transition from the reference frame of the DE200/LE200 ephemerides to that of DE403/LE403 ephemerides (since October 1, 1988, to J2000) that consists in the the assumption that the former reference frame has no rotation relative to the ICRF.