Orbit determination with very short arcs: II. Identifications

When the observational data are not enough to compute a meaningful orbit for an asteroid/comet we can represent the data with an attributable, i.e., two angles and their time derivatives. The undetermined variables range and range rate span an admissible region of Solar System orbits, which can be sampled by a set of Virtual Asteroids (VAs) selected by means of an optimal triangulation [Milani, A., Gronchi, G.F., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Kne?evi?, Z., 2004. Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron. 90, 59-87]. The attributable 4 coordinates are the result of a fit and they have an uncertainty, represented by a covariance matrix. Two short arcs of observations, represented by two attributables, can be linked by considering for each VA (in the admissible region of the first arc) the covariance matrix for the prediction at the time of the second arc, and by comparing it with the attributable of the second arc with its own covariance. By defining an identification penalty we can select the VAs allowing to fit together both arcs and compute a preliminary orbit. Two attributables may not be enough to compute an orbit with convergent differential corrections. Thus the preliminary orbit is used in a constrained differential correction, providing solutions along the Line Of Variation which can be used as second generation VAs to further predict the observations at the time of a third arc. In general the identification with a third arc will ensure a well determined orbit, to which additional sets of observations can be attributed. To test these algorithms we use a large scale simulation and measure the completeness, the reliability and the efficiency of the overall procedure to build up orbits by accumulating identifications. Under the conditions expected for the next generation asteroid surveys, the methods developed in this and in the preceding papers are efficient enough to be used as primary identification methods, with very good results. One important property is that the completeness in finding the possible identifications is as good for comparatively rare orbits, such as the ones of Near-Earth Objects, as for main belt orbits.     

Impact evolution of asteroid shapes: 1. random mass redistribution

We explore whether the cumulative effect of small-scale meteoroid bombardment can drive asteroids into nonaxisymmetric shapes comparable to those of known objects (elongated prolate forms, twin-lobed binaries, etc). We simulate impact cratering as an excavation followed by the launch, orbit, and reimpact of ejecta. Orbits are determined by the gravity and rotation of the evolving asteroid, whose shape and spin change as cratering occurs repeatedly. For simplicity we consider an end-member evolution where impactors are all much smaller than the asteroid and where all ejecta remain bound. Given those assumptions, we find that cumulative small impacts on rotating asteroids lead to oblate shapes, irrespective of the chosen value for angle of repose or for initial angular momentum. The more rapidly a body is spinning, the more flattened the outcome, but oblateness prevails. Most actual asteroids, by contrast, appear spherical to prolate. We also evaluate the timescale for reshaping by small impacts and compare it to the timescale for catastrophic disruption. For all but the steepest size distributions of impactors, reshaping from small impacts takes more than an order of magnitude longer than catastrophic disruption. We conclude that small-scale cratering is probably not dominant in shaping asteroids, unless our assumptions are naive. We believe we have ruled out the end-member scenario; future modeling shall include angular momentum evolution from impacts, mass loss in the strength regime, and craters with diameters up to the disruption threshold. The ultimate goal is to find out how asteroids get their shapes and spins and whether tidal encounters in fact play a dominant role.     

Asteroid observations at low phase angles: III. Brightness behavior of dark asteroids

The results of photometric observations of eight main-belt asteroids with low surface albedo are presented. The magnitude-phase dependences including low phase angles (<1 deg) have been obtained for Asteroids 76 Freia (down to phase angle 0.1 deg, P-type), 190 Ismene (0.3 deg, P-type), 303 Josephina (0.2 deg, C-type), 309 Fraternitas (0.1 deg, C-type), 313 Chaldaea (0.1 deg, C-type), 444 Gyptis (0.8 deg, P-type), 615 Roswitha (0.1 deg, C-type), and 954 Li (0.03 deg, FCX-type). The behavior of brightness in the range of opposition effect is found to be practically linear for 190 Ismene with amplitude of opposition effect only 0.03 mag. Amplitudes of the opposition effect for other asteroids are close to a mean for this type. The obtained data allowed us also to determine the rotation periods of asteroids: 303 Josephina (12.497±0.001 h), 309 Fraternitas (11.205±0.005 h), 615 Roswitha (4.422±0.001 h) and 954 Li (7.207±0.002 h). The color indexes B-V, V-R and R-I have been determined for some asteroids.     

Yarkovsky detection opportunities: II. Binary systems

We consider the possibility of detecting the Yarkovsky orbital perturbation acting on binary systems among the near-Earth asteroids. This task is significantly more difficult than for solitary asteroids because the Yarkovsky force affects both the heliocentric orbit of the system's center of mass and the relative orbit of the two components. Nevertheless, we argue these are sufficiently well decoupled so that the major Yarkovsky perturbation is in the simpler heliocentric motion and is observable with the current means of radar astrometry. Over the long term, the Yarkovsky perturbation in the relative motion of the two components is also detectable for the best observed systems. However, here we consider a simplified version of the problem by ignoring mutual non-spherical gravitational perturbations between the two asteroids. With the orbital plane constant in space and the components' rotation poles fixed (and assumed perpendicular to the orbital plane), we do not examine the coupling between Yarkovsky and gravitational effects. While radar observations remain an essential element of Yarkovsky detections, lightcurve observations, with their ability to track occultation and eclipse phenomena, are also very important in the case of binaries. The nearest possible future detection of the Yarkovsky effect for a binary system occurs for (66063) 1998 RO₁ in September 2006. Farther out, even more statistically significant detections are possible for several other systems including 2000 DP₁₀₇, (66391) 1999 KW₄ and 1996 FG₃.     

Binary asteroid population: 1. Angular momentum content

We compiled a list of estimated parameters of binary systems among asteroids from near-Earth to trojan orbits. In this paper, we describe the construction of the list, and we present results of our study of angular momentum content in binary asteroids. The most abundant binary population is that of close binary systems among near-Earth, Mars-crossing, and main belt asteroids that have a primary diameter of about 10 km or smaller. They have a total angular momentum very close to, but not generally exceeding, the critical limit for a single body in a gravity regime. This suggests that they formed from parent bodies spinning at the critical rate (at the gravity spin limit for asteroids in the size range) by some sort of fission or mass shedding. The Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect is a candidate to be the dominant source of spin-up to instability. Gravitational interactions during close approaches to the terrestrial planets cannot be a primary mechanism of formation of the binaries, but it may affect properties of the NEA part of the binary population.     

Steady-state size distributions for collisional populations:: analytical solution with size-dependent strength

The steady-state population of bodies resulting from a collisional cascade depends on how material strength varies with size. We find a simple expression for the power-law index of the population, given a power law that describes how material strength varies with size. This result is extended to the case relevant for the asteroid belt and Kuiper belt, in which the material strength is described by 2 separate power laws—one for small bodies and one for larger bodies. We find that the power-law index of the small body population is unaffected by the strength law for the large bodies, and vice versa. Simple analytical expressions describe a wave that is superimposed on the large body population because of the transition between the two power laws describing the strength. These analytical results yield excellent agreement with a numerical simulation of collisional evolution. These results will help to interpret observations of the asteroids and KBOs, and constrain the strength properties of those objects.     

Modeling the 3-D secular planetary three-body problem: Discussion on the outer υ Andromedae planetary system

The three-dimensional secular behavior of a system composed of a central star and two massive planets is modeled semi-analytically in the frame of the general three-body problem. The main dynamical features of the system are presented in geometrical pictures allowing us to investigate a large domain of the phase space of this problem without time-expensive numerical integrations of the equations of motion and without any restriction on the magnitude of the planetary eccentricities, inclinations and mutual distance. Several regimes of motion of the system are observed. With respect to the secular angle Δ?, possible motions are circulations, oscillations (around 0° and 180°), and high-eccentricity/inclination librations in secular resonances. With respect to the arguments of pericenter, ω₁ and ω₂, possible motions are direct circulation and high-inclination libration around ±90° in the Lidov-Kozai resonance. The regions of transition between domains of different regimes of motion are characterized by chaotic behavior. We apply the analysis to the case of the two outer planets of the υ Andromedae system, observed edge-on. The topology of the 3-D phase space of this system is investigated in detail by means of surfaces of section, periodic orbits and dynamical spectra, mapping techniques and numerical simulations. We obtain the general structure of the phase space, and the boundaries of the spatial secular stability. We find that this system is secularly stable in a large domain of eccentricities and inclinations.     

Rotation rate and velocity dispersion of planetary ring particles with size distribution: I. Formulation and analytic calculation

We derive an equation for the evolution of rotational energy of Keplerian particles in a dilute disk due to mutual collisions. Three-dimensional Keplerian motion of particles is taken into account precisely, on the basis of Hill's approximation. The Rayleigh distribution of particles' orbital eccentricities and inclinations, and the Gaussian distribution of their rotation rates are also taken into account. Performing appropriate variable transformation, we show that the equation can be expressed with two terms. The first term, which we call collisional stirring term, represents energy exchange between rotation and random motion via collisions. The second term, which we call rotational friction term, tends to equalize the mean rotational energy of particles with different sizes. The equation can describe the evolution of rotational energy of Keplerian particles with an arbitrary size distribution. We analytically evaluate the rates of stirring and friction for the random kinetic energy and rotational energy due to inelastic collisions, for non-gravitating particles in a dilute disk. Using these results, we discuss equilibrium states in a disk of spinning, non-gravitating Keplerian particles.     

Spectral study of the Eunomia asteroid family : I. Eunomia

We present color ratio curves of the S-Asteroid 15 Eunomia, which have been extracted from high-precision photometric lightcurves obtained in three different VNIR wavelength bands at the Bochum Telescope, La Silla. The measured color ratio curves and near infrared spectra were used to derive a detailed surface composition model whose shape has been computed by V-lightcurve inversions. According to this analysis, the asteroid shows on one hemisphere a higher concentration of pyroxene, which causes an increased 440/700 nm and a reduced 940/700 nm reflectance ratio as well as a pronounced 2-μm absorption band. The remaining surface shows a higher concentration of olivine, leading to a reduced 440/700 nm and slightly increased 940/700 nm color ratio. In addition, we found that the maximum of the 440/700 nm color ratio curve coincide with the minimum of the 940/700 nm color ratio curve and vice versa. We demonstrate on the basis of USGS laboratory spectra that this anti-cyclical behavior can be explained by choosing Fe-rich olivine and a pyroxene with moderate Fe content as varying mineral phases. Furthermore, our observations confirm that 15 Eunomia is an irregular elongated and at least partially differentiated body. Previous spectral investigations of several smaller fragments of the Eunomia asteroid family revealed that the amount of fragments showing an increased pyroxene content exceeds the amount of pyroxene-poor fragments (Nathues, 2000, DLR Forschungsbericht, ISSN 1434-8454). This finding together with the observation that the major fraction of Eunomia's surface is enriched in olivine let us claim that a large fraction of the original pyroxene-enriched crust layer has been lost due to a major collision that created the Eunomia asteroid family. Significant spectral evidences, consistent with high concentrations of metals have been found neither in the rotational resolved spectra of 15 Eunomia nor in its fragments. This led to the conclusion that either no core consisting mainly of metals exists or that an eventual one has not been unearthed by the impact.     

Numerical simulations of impacts involving porous bodies: II. Comparison with laboratory experiments

In this paper, we compare the outcome of high-velocity impact experiments on porous targets, composed of pumice, with the results of simulations by a 3D SPH hydrocode in which a porosity model has been implemented. The different populations of small bodies of our Solar System are believed to be composed, at least partially, of objects with a high degree of porosity. To describe the fragmentation of such porous objects, a different model is needed than that used for non-porous bodies. In the case of porous bodies, the impact process is not only driven by the presence of cracks which propagate when a stress threshold is reached, it is also influenced by the crushing of pores and compaction. Such processes can greatly affect the whole body's response to an impact. Therefore, another physical model is necessary to improve our understanding of the collisional process involving porous bodies. Such a model has been developed recently and introduced successfully in a 3D SPH hydrocode [Jutzi, M., Benz, W., Michel, P., 2008. Icarus 198, 242-255]. Basic tests have been performed which already showed that it is implemented in a consistent way and that theoretical solutions are well reproduced. However, its full validation requires that it is also capable of reproducing the results of real laboratory impact experiments. Here we present simulations of laboratory experiments on pumice targets for which several of the main material properties have been measured. We show that using the measured material properties and keeping the remaining free parameters fixed, our numerical model is able to reproduce the outcome of these experiments carried out under different impact conditions. This first complete validation of our model, which will be tested for other porous materials in the future, allows us to start addressing problems at larger scale related to small bodies of our Solar System, such as collisions in the Kuiper Belt or the formation of a family by the disruption of a porous parent body in the main asteroid belt.     

Tidal disruptions: II. A continuum theory for solid bodies with strength, with applications to the Solar System

We present a comprehensive theory for the breakup conditions for ellipsoidal homogeneous secondary bodies subjected to the tidal forces from a nearby larger primary: for materials ranging from purely fluid ones, to granular rubble-pile gravel-like ones, and to those with either cohesive or granular strength including cohesive rocks and metals. The theory includes but greatly extends the classical analyses given by Roche in 1847, which dealt only with fluids, and also our previous analysis [Holsapple, K.A., Michel, P., 2006. Icarus 183, 331-348], which dealt only with solid but non-cohesive bodies. The results here give the distance inside of which breakup must occur, for both a steadily orbiting satellite and for a passing or impacting object. For the fluid bodies there is a single specific shape (a “Roche Ellipsoid”) that can be in equilibrium at any given distance from a primary, and especially only one shape that can exist at the overall minimum distance (d/R)(ρ/ρp)^1/3=2.455, the classical well-known “Roche limit.” In contrast, solid bodies can exist at a given distance from a primary with a range of shapes. Here we give multiple plots of the minimum distances for various important combinations of body shape, spin, mass density, and the strength parameters characterized by an angle of friction and cohesive strength. Such results can be used in different ways. They can be used to estimate limits on strengths and mass densities for orbiting bodies at a known distance and shape. They can be used to determine breakup distances for passing bodies with an assumed strength and shape. They can be used to constraint physical properties such as bulk density of bodies with a known shape that were known to breakup at a given distance. A collection of approximately 40 satellites of the Solar System is used for comparison to the theory. About half of those bodies are closer than the Roche fluid limit and must have some cohesion and/or friction angle to exist at their present orbital distance. The required solid strength for those states is determined. Finally, we apply the theory to the break up of the SL9 comet at close approach with Jupiter. Our results make clear that the literature estimates of its bulk density depend markedly on unknown parameters such as shape, orientation and spin, and most importantly, material strength characterization.     

Phase II of the Small Main-Belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey: A Feature-Based Taxonomy

The second phase of the Small Main-belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey (SMASSII) produced an internally consistent set of visible-wavelength charge-coupled device (CCD) spectra for 1447 asteroids (Bus and Binzel 2002, Icarus, ). These data provide a basis for developing a new asteroid taxonomy that utilizes more of the information contained in CCD spectra. Here we construct a classification system that builds on the robust framework provided by existing asteroid taxonomies. In particular, we define three major groupings (the S-, C-, and X-complexes) that adhere to the classical definitions of the S-, C-, and X-type asteroids. A total of 26 classes are defined, based on the presence or absence of specific spectral features. Definitions and boundary parameters are provided for each class, allowing new spectral observations to be placed in this system. Of these 26 classes, 12 bear familiar single-letter designations that follow previous conventions: A, B, C, D, K, O, Q, R, S, T, V, and X. A new L-class is introduced to describe 35 objects with spectra having a steep UV slope shortward of 0.75 μm, but which are relatively flat longward of 0.75 μm. Asteroids with intermediate spectral characteristics are assigned multiletter designations: Cb, Cg, Cgh, Ch, Ld, Sa, Sk, Sl, Sq, Sr, Xc, Xe, and Xk. Members of the Cgh- and Ch-classes have spectra containing a 0.7-μm feature that is generally attributed to hydration. Although previously considered featureless, CCD observations reveal distinct features of varying strengths in the spectra of asteroids in the X-complex, thus allowing the Xc-, Xe-, and Xk-classes to be established. Most notably, the spectra of Xe-type asteroids contain an absorption feature centered near 0.49 μm that may be associated with troilite. Several new members are identified for previously unique or sparsely populated classes: 12 A-types, 3 O-types, and 3 R-types. Q-types are common within the near-Earth asteroid population but remain unobserved in the main belt. More than 30 new V-types are found in the vicinity of Vesta. The heliocentric distribution of the SMASSII taxonomic classes is similar to that determined from previous studies, though additional structure is revealed as a result of the larger sample size.     

Shape, size and multiplicity of main-belt asteroids: I. Keck Adaptive Optics survey

This paper presents results from a high spatial resolution survey of 33 main-belt asteroids with diameters >40 km using the Keck II Adaptive Optics (AO) facility. Five of these (45 Eugenia, 87 Sylvia, 107 Camilla, 121 Hermione, 130 Elektra) were confirmed to have satellite. Assuming the same albedo as the primary, these moonlets are relatively small (∼5% of the primary size) suggesting that they are fragments captured after a disruptive collision of a parent body or captured ejecta due to an impact. For each asteroid, we have estimated the minimum size of a moonlet that can positively detected within the Hill sphere of the system by estimating and modeling a 2-σ detection profile: in average on the data set, a moonlet located at 2/100×RHill (1/4×RHill) with a diameter larger than 6 km (4 km) would have been unambiguously seen. The apparent size and shape of each asteroid was estimated after deconvolution using a new algorithm called AIDA. The mean diameter for the majority of asteroids is in good agreement with IRAS radiometric measurements, though for asteroids with a D<200 km, it is underestimated on average by 6-8%. Most asteroids had a size ratio that was very close to those determined by lightcurve measurements. One observation of 104 Klymene suggests it has a bifurcated shape. The bi-lobed shape of 121 Hermione described in Marchis et al. [Marchis, F., Hestroffer, D., Descamps, P., Berthier, J., Laver, C., de Pater, I., 2005c. Icarus 178, 450-464] was confirmed after deconvolution. The ratio of contact binaries in our survey, which is limited to asteroids larger than 40 km, is surprisingly high (∼6%), suggesting that a non-single configuration is common in the main-belt. Several asteroids have been analyzed with lightcurve inversions. We compared lightcurve inversion models for plane-of-sky predictions with the observed images (9 Metis, 52 Europa, 87 Sylvia, 130 Elektra, 192 Nausikaa, and 423 Diotima, 511 Davida). The AO images allowed us to determine a unique photometric mirror pole solution, which is normally ambiguous for asteroids moving close to the plane of the ecliptic (e.g., 192 Nausikaa and 52 Europa). The photometric inversion models agree well with the AO images, thus confirming the validity of both the lightcurve inversion method and the AO image reduction technique.     

Phase II of the Small Main-Belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey: The Observations

We present visible-wavelength (0.435-0.925 μm) spectroscopic measurements for 1341 main-belt asteroids observed during the second phase of the Small Main-belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey (SMASSII). The purpose of this survey is to provide a new basis for studying the compositional structure of the asteroid belt. Through the large sample size and the relatively high spectral resolution (R∼100) of the SMASSII data, we find that values of the spectral parameters describing these data form more of a continuum than previously realized. Objects with intermediate spectral characteristics are bridging gaps that once separated distinct spectral classes. In some cases, newly revealed small-scale spectral features may be indicative of previously unrecognized mineral constituents. Here we present the data and principal component analyses that describe the SMASSII spectra. A companion paper utilizes these principal component scores, along with other measures of the spectral features, to develop a new taxonomy that takes advantage of the information contained within charge-coupled device spectra.     

Possible long-term decline in impact rates: 2. Lunar impact-melt data regarding impact history

Crater counts at lunar landing sites with measured ages establish a steep decline in cratering rate during the period ∼3.8 to ∼3.1 Gyr ago. Most models of the time dependence suggest a roughly constant impact rate (within factor ∼2) after about 3 Gyr ago, but are based on sparse data. Recent dating of impact melts from lunar meteorites, and Apollo glass spherules, clarifies impact rates from ∼3.2 to ∼2 Gyr ago or less. Taken together, these data suggest a decline with roughly 700 Myr half-life around 3 Gyr ago, and a slower decline after that, dropping by a factor ∼3 from about ∼2.3 Gyr ago until the present. Planetary cratering involved several phases with different time behaviors: (1) rapid sweep-up of most primordial planetesimals into planets in the first hundred Myr, (2) possible later effects of giant planet migration with enhanced cratering, (3) longer term sweep-up of leftover planetesimals, and finally (4) the present long-term “leakage” of asteroids from reservoirs such as the main asteroid belt and Kuiper belt. In addition, at any given point on the Moon, a pattern of “spikes” (sharp maxima of relatively narrow time width) will appear in the production rate of smaller craters (?500 m?), not only from secondary debris from large primary lunar impacts at various distances from the point in question, but also from asteroid breakups dotted through Solar System history. The pattern of spikes varies according to type of sample being measured (i.e., glass spherules vs impact melts). For example, several data sets show an impact rate spike ∼470 Myr ago associated with the asteroid belt collision that produced the L chondrites (see Section 3.6 below). Such spikes should be less prominent in the production record of craters of D? few km. These phenomena affect estimates of planetary surfaces ages from crater counts, as discussed in a companion paper [Quantin, C., Mangold, N., Hartmann, W.K., Allemand, P., 2007. Icarus 186, 1-10]. Fewer impact melts and glass spherules are found at ∼3.8 Gyr than at ∼3.5 Gyr ago, even though the impact rate itself is known to have been higher at 3.8 Gyr ago than 3.5 Gyr. This disproves the assertion by Ryder [Ryder, G., 1990. EOS 71, 313, 322-323] and Cohen et al. [Cohen, B.A., Swindle, T.D., Kring, D.A., 2000. Science 290, 1754-1756] that ancient impact melts are a direct proxy for ancient impact (cf. Section 3.3). This result raises questions about how to interpret cratering history before 3.8 Gyr ago.     

A meteoroid stream survey using the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar: II: Identification of minor showers using a 3D wavelet transform

A 7 year survey using the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR), a specular backscattering orbital radar, has produced three million individually measured meteoroid orbits for particles with mean mass near 10⁻⁷ kg. We apply a 3D wavelet transform to our measured velocity vectors, partitioning them into 1° solar longitude bins while stacking all 7 years of data into a single “virtual” year to search for showers which show annual activity and last for at least 3 days. Our automated stream search algorithm has identified 117 meteor showers. We have recovered 42 of the 45 previously described streams from our first reconnaissance survey (Brown, P., Weryk, R.J., Wong, D.K., Jones, J. [2008]. Icarus 195, 317-339). Removing possible duplicate showers from the automated results leaves 109 total streams. These include 42 identified in survey I and at least 62 newly identified streams. Our large data sample and the enhanced sensitivity of the 3D wavelet search compared to our earlier survey have allowed us to extend the period of activity for several major showers. This includes detection of the Geminid shower from early November to late December and the Quadrantids from early November to mid-January. Among our newly identified streams are the Theta Serpentids which appears to be derived from 2008 KP and the Canum Venaticids which have a similar orbit to C/1975 X1 (Sato). We also find evidence that nearly 60% of all our streams are part of seven major stream complexes, linked via secular invariants.     

Estimating the water content of hydrated minerals using reflectance spectroscopy: I. Effects of darkening agents and low-albedo materials

The apparent strength of absorptions due to H₂O near 1.9 and 3 μm in reflectance spectra is strongly affected by sample albedo. This study uses experimental and analytical approaches to quantify the effects of albedo on estimating the water content of hydrated minerals using various band parameters. We compare spectral band parameters for a series of low-albedo physical and numerical mixtures to measured water contents. Physical experiments consist of montmorillonite, clinoptilolite, and palagonite mixed with lesser amounts of carbon black and ilmenite, whereas numerical mixtures are composed of these host minerals mixed with a material of constant, low albedo. We find the effective single-particle absorption-thickness parameter provides the best correlation to water content, independent of composition and albedo, when derived from continuum-removed single scattering albedo spectra. Uncertainties in estimated water content are on the order of ±1 wt% using this method. The normalized optical path length parameter provides the best correlation to water content when using reflectance spectra, yielding estimates within ±1.6 wt% H₂O. The accuracy of these models is related to the physical nature of the darkening material. Scattering and absorption efficiencies are easier to model for intimate mixtures containing relatively large, dark grains than mixtures dominated by coatings of a fine-grained, strongly absorbing material. This suggests the physical properties that give rise to the albedo of a material are an important factor for accurate estimates of absolute water content.     

Topocentric orbit determination: Algorithms for the next generation surveys

The process of calculating a good orbit from astrometric observations of the same object involves three main steps: preliminary orbit determination, least squares orbit fitting, and quality control assessing the orbit's uncertainty and reliability. For the next generation sky surveys, with much larger number density of observations, new algorithms, or at least substantial revisions of the classical ones, are needed. The classical theory of preliminary orbit algorithms was incomplete in that the consequences of the topocentric correction had not been fully studied. We show that it is possible to rigorously account for topocentric observations and that this correction may increase the number of alternate preliminary orbits without impairing the overall performance. We have developed modified least squares algorithms including the capability of fitting the orbit to a reduced number of parameters. The restricted fitting techniques can be used to improve the reliability of the orbit computing procedure when the observed arcs have small curvature. False identification (where observations of different objects are incorrectly linked together) can be discarded with a quality control on the residuals and a ‘normalization’ procedure removing duplications and contradictions. We have tested our algorithms on two simulations based on the expected performance of Pan-STARRS—one of the next generation all-sky surveys. The results confirm that large sets of discoveries can be handled very efficiently resulting in good quality orbits. In these tests we lost only 0.6 to 1.3% of the possible objects, with a false identification rate in the range 0.02 to 0.06%.     

Simulation and analysis of the dynamics of binary near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4

Near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 was the subject of the recently published first extensive radar imaging, shape and mutual orbit modeling, and physical and dynamical characterization of a binary asteroid. In this paper we present in detail our numerical simulation of KW4 behind that work. Our propagations of the system with some variation in estimated parameters cover the set of KW4's possible current dynamical states consistent with the body models and other information obtained directly from the observations. We also apply our implementation of this simulation capability to address some of the dynamical mechanisms by which KW4 may be moved into the more energetically excited of those possible current states, particularly solar gravity interaction. Through comparison of the results with certain features of the observation data, we conclude that the actual KW4 system is not in the most energetically relaxed configuration but must be moderately excited. The system occupies a generalized Cassini state 2 which is different from that considered in most previously published treatments of Cassini states in that it involves co-precession of the primary's spin frame and the mutual orbit rather than co-precession of a satellite's spin frame and that satellite's orbit about the primary. We present a simple analytical theory describing the system's dynamics, which should be applicable to any other binary systems, of which KW4 is representative, in which a massive, roughly oblate primary is spinning rapidly relative to the rate of its mutual orbit with an on-average synchronous, elongated secondary. We examine separately both the effect of the larger binary component's oblateness, and the effect of the smaller component's roughly triaxial ellipsoid shape. The simple analytical formulae obtained agree with full-detail numerical simulation results, and can be used for remote estimation of binary mass properties from observed system motion.