An approach to hydrogeological modeling of a large system of groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands in the Nebraska Sand Hills,USA

The feasibility of a hydrogeological modeling approach to simulate several thousand shallow groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands without explicitly considering their connection with groundwater is investigated at the regional scale (~40,000 km²) through an application in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), USA. Hydraulic heads are compared to local land-surface elevations from a digital elevation model (DEM) within a geographic information system to assess locations of lakes and wetlands. The water bodies are inferred where hydraulic heads exceed, or are above a certain depth below, the land surface. Numbers of lakes and/or wetlands are determined via image cluster analysis applied to the same 30-m grid as the DEM after interpolating both simulated and estimated heads. The regional water-table map was used for groundwater model calibration, considering MODIS-based net groundwater recharge data. Resulting values of simulated total baseflow to interior streams are within 1% of observed values. Locations, areas, and numbers of simulated lakes and wetlands are compared with Landsat 2005 survey data and with areas of lakes from a 1979–1980 Landsat survey and the National Hydrography Dataset. This simplified process-based modeling approach avoids the need for field-based morphology or water-budget data from individual lakes or wetlands, or determination of lake-groundwater exchanges, yet it reproduces observed lake-wetland characteristics at regional groundwater management scales. A better understanding of the NSH hydrogeology is attained, and the approach shows promise for use in simulations of groundwater-fed lake and wetland characteristics in other large groundwater systems.     

Deuterium composition and flow path analysis as additional calibration targets to calibrate groundwater flow simulation in a coastal wetlands system

A conceptual model of the Lake Warden coastal wetlands system, Western Australia, was developed using hydraulic, chemical and stable isotopic data, and formed the basis for a groundwater flow model using the finite element numerical code (FEFLOW). The system to be modeled is complex. The surface water and groundwater within the wetlands system show varying salinity and isotopic composition over short distances and time frames. As a first step, the flow model was calibrated to observed groundwater levels measured since 2001 for both steady state and transient stresses. Particle tracking analysis was conducted to test the source areas of water discharging to the lakes within the wetlands system. The analysis was able to delineate the connectivity between the lakes in the wetland and the flow path. Enrichment of isotopic concentration is evident along a NE–SW transect and the data set provides a means for calibrating a detailed transport model. The study incorporates the varying deuterium composition of the water bodies directly into a transport model and a good match between observed and simulated temporal variations along the transect indicates that the model closely simulated the dynamics of water exchange between the lakes and groundwater within the system.     

Evidence for deep groundwater flow and convective heat transport in mountainous terrain, Delta County, Colorado, USA

The Tongue Creek watershed lies on the south flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado, USA and is a site with 1.5 km of topographic relief, heat flow of 100 mW/m², thermal conductivity of 3.3 W m^–1 °C^–1, hydraulic conductivity of 10^-8 m/s, a water table that closely follows surface topography, and groundwater temperatures 3–15°C above mean surface temperatures. These data suggest that convective heat transport by groundwater flow has modified the thermal regime of the site. Steady state three-dimensional numerical simulations of heat flow, groundwater flow, and convective transport were used to model these thermal and hydrological data. The simulations provided estimates for the scale of hydraulic conductivity and bedrock base flow discharge within the watershed. The numerical models show that (1) complex three-dimensional flow systems develop with a range of scales from tens of meters to tens of kilometers; (2) mapped springs are frequently found at locations where contours of hydraulic head indicate strong vertical flow at the water table, and; (3) the distribution of groundwater temperatures in water wells as a function of surface elevation is predicted by the model.     

Groundwater flow modeling for effective implementation of landslide stability enhancement measures

This paper deals with groundwater hydrology at a prominent fracture zone landslide slope (Nuta–Yone landslides) in Japan with an objective to explore an efficient method for the application of landslide stability enhancement measures. The correlation analyses between the hydrological parameters and ground surface movement data at this landslide resulted in low correlation values indicating that the geological formation of the area is extremely complex. For the purpose of understanding the groundwater flow behavior in the landslide area, a three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was prepared for a part of the landslide slope, where the levels of effectiveness of applied landslide stability enhancement measures (in the form of multilayered deep horizontal drains) are different, and was calibrated against the measured water surface elevations at different piezometer locations. The parameter distributions in the calibrated model and the general directions of the groundwater flow in terms of flow vectors and the results of particle tracking at the model site were interpreted to understand the reasons for variations in effectiveness of existing landslide stability enhancement measures and to find potentially better locations for the implementation of future landslide stability enhancement measures. From the modeling results, it was also understood that groundwater flow model can be effectively used in better planning and locating the landslide stability enhancement measures.     

Determination of water balance equation components in irrigated agricultural watersheds using SWAT and MODFLOW models : A case study of Samalqan plain in Iran

Increasing water demands,especially in arid and semi-arid regions,continuously exacerbate groundwater as the only reliable water resources in these regions.Samalqan watershed,Iran,is a groundwater-based irrigation watershed,so that increased aquifer extraction,has caused serious groundwater depletion.So that the catchment consists of surface water,the management of these resources is essential in order to increase the groundwater recharge.Due to the existence of rivers,the low thickness of the alluvial sediments,groundwater level fluctuations and high uncertainty in the calculation of hydrodynamic coefficients in the watershed,the SWAT and MODFLOW models were used to assess the impact of irrigation return flow on groundwater recharge and the hydrological components of the basin.For this purpose,the irrigation operation tool in the SWAT model was utilized to determine the fixed amounts and time of irrigation for each HRU(Hydrological Response Unit)on the specified day.Since the study area has pressing challenges related to water deficit and sparsely gauged,therefore,this investigation looks actual for regional scale analysis.Model evaluation criteria,RMSE and NRMSE for the simulated groundwater level were 1.8 m and 1.1%respectively.Also,the simulation of surface water flow at the basin outlet,provided satisfactory prediction(R²=0.92,NSE=0.85).Results showed that,the irrigation has affected the surface and groundwater interactions in the watershed,where agriculture heavily depends on irrigation.Annually 11.64 Mm3 water entered to the aquifer by surface recharge(precipitation,irrigation),transmission loss from river and recharge wells 5.8 Mm3 and ground water boundary flow(annually 20.5 Mm³).Water output in the watershed included ground water extraction and groundwater return flow(annually 46.4 Mm³)and ground water boundary flow(annually 0.68 Mm³).Overally,the groundwater storage has decreased by 9.14 Mm3 annually in Samalqan aquifer.This method can be applied to simulate the effects of surface water fluxes to groundwater recharge and river-aquifer interaction for areas with stressed aquifers where interaction between surface and groundwater cannot be easily assessed.     

Groundwater inflow and associated transport of phosphorus to a hypereutrophic lake

Hydrogeochemical data from lake, sediment pore, and well waters were used to quantify groundwater seepage and the associated transport of phosphorus to Lake Persimmon, Florida, USA. The data show that lake chloride concentrations vary as a function of lake elevations that are controlled by groundwater inflow. A whole-lake average seepage rate, estimated using a simple one dimensional advection-diffusion model fitted to the lake chloride profile, currently averages 2.3 ± 0.3 cm yr^-1 and is in reasonable agreement with the rate of advective flow obtained from the pore water chloride profile. The ratios of nutrient regeneration versus sulfate consumption indicate that the phosphorus enrichment in deeper portions of sediment pore water is most likely a result of groundwater phosphorus transport through sediment. Thus, the net inputs of groundwater phosphorus to the lake, calculated using the deep pore water phosphorus concentration, are about 7.4 ± 4.3 mg P m^-2 yr^-1 and comparable with recent in situ estimates from seepage meters. This study provides a simple hydrogeochemical method for estimating hydrologic and phosphorus inputs via groundwater to the lake, thereby supporting current efforts for lake management.     

Stochastic water balance model for rainfall recharge quantification in Ruataniwha Basin,New Zealand

Quantification of groundwater recharge is important for water resources management. Different methods can be used to estimate groundwater recharge. The most suitable approach depends on site characteristics. Water balance model was used in this study to quantify groundwater recharge from rainfall in Ruataniwha Basin, Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Because it is a closed basin, this method was determined to be more suitable than any other method. The basin is fed by surface water flow and rainfall, without any lateral groundwater flow. Records of surface water inflow and outflow are available with a certain degree of reliability. To cope with uncertainty in different components of water balance, different sampling methods were used. The Mean Value Latin Hypercube Sampling (MVLHS) was used and compared with Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). It was found the groundwater recharge from rainfall is about 415 million m³/year. Results of this study have revealed that MVLHS converges faster and with lower variance than LHS and MCS.     

Relation of streams, lakes, and wetlands to groundwater flow systems

 Surface-water bodies are integral parts of groundwater flow systems. Groundwater interacts with surface water in nearly all landscapes, ranging from small streams, lakes, and wetlands in headwater areas to major river valleys and seacoasts. Although it generally is assumed that topographically high areas are groundwater recharge areas and topographically low areas are groundwater discharge areas, this is true primarily for regional flow systems. The superposition of local flow systems associated with surface-water bodies on this regional framework results in complex interactions between groundwater and surface water in all landscapes, regardless of regional topographic position. Hydrologic processes associated with the surface-water bodies themselves, such as seasonally high surface-water levels and evaporation and transpiration of groundwater from around the perimeter of surface-water bodies, are a major cause of the complex and seasonally dynamic groundwater flow fields associated with surface water. These processes have been documented at research sites in glacial, dune, coastal, mantled karst, and riverine terrains. Received, April 1998 · Revised, July 1998, August 1998 · Accepted, September 1998     

Groundwater flow modelling within a coastal alluvial plain setting using a high-resolution hydrofacies approach; Bells Creek plain, Australia

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has proved to be an extremely useful geophysical tool, in conjunction with direct geological data, to develop a realistic, macroscopic, subjective-based conceptual model of aquifer architecture within a shallow coastal alluvial plain. Subsequent finite-difference groundwater modelling has not only enabled determination of the dominant groundwater flow paths for the plain, but has also quantified the effects of within-facies and between-facies sedimentary heterogeneity on those flow paths. The interconnection of narrow, unconfined alluvial channels and a broad, semi-confined alluvial delta is ensuring that most fresh groundwater that enters the plain in the form of precipitation or recharge from lateral bedrock hills, is discharged into the eastern coastal wetlands via that alluvial delta aquifer.     

Model of hydrological behaviour of the anthropized semiarid wetland of Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park (Spain) based on surface water–groundwater interactions

Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park (TDNP) in Spain is one of the most important semiarid wetlands of the Mediterranean area. The inversion of the regional groundwater flow, primarily due to overexploitation and inadequate aquifer management, has led to degradation. The system has turned from a groundwater discharge zone into a recharge zone, and has remained mostly dry since the 1980s. High heterogeneity and complexity, enhanced by anthropogenic management action, hampers prediction of the surface–groundwater system response to flooding events. This study analyses these interactions and provides empirical evidence to define a conceptual model of flooding-infiltration-groundwater dynamics through the application of a few simple analysis tools to basic hydrological data. Relevant surface water–groundwater interactions are mainly localized in the left (west) margin of TDNP, as confirmed by the fast responses to flooding observed in the hydrochemic, hydrodynamic and isotopic data. During drying periods, small artificial and/or low-flow natural floods are followed by infiltration of evaporated poor-quality ponding water into saline low-permeability layers. The results allow an improved understanding of the hydrological behaviour essential to support efficient management practices. The relative simplicity of the methodology allows for its application in other similar complex groundwater-linked wetlands where detailed knowledge of local geology is still absent.     

Evaluation of groundwater resource potential by using water balance model: A case of Upper Gilgel Gibe Watershed,Ethiopia

Groundwater resource potential is the nation’s primary freshwater reserve and accounts for a large portion of potential future water supply. This study focused on quantifying the groundwater resource potential of the Upper Gilgel Gibe watershed using the water balance method. This study began by defining the project area’s boundary, reviewing previous works, and collecting valuable primary and secondary data. The analysis and interpretation of data were supported by the application of different software like ArcGIS 10.4.1. Soil water characteristics of SPAW (Soil-plant-air-water) computer model, base flow index (BFI+3.0), and the water balance model. Estimation of the areal depth of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration was carried out through the use of the isohyetal method and the water balance model and found to be 1 664.5 mm/a and 911.6 mm/a, respectively. A total water volume of 875 829 800 m³/a is estimated to recharge the aquifer system. The present annual groundwater abstraction is estimated as 10 150 000 m³/a. The estimated specific yield, exploitable groundwater reserve, and safe yield of the catchment are 5.9%, 520 557 000 m³/a, and 522 768 349 m³/a respectively. The total groundwater abstraction is much less than the recharge and the safe yield of the aquifer. The results show that there is a sufficient amount of groundwater in the study area, and the groundwater resources of the area are considered underdeveloped.     

Response of the interaction between groundwater and other components of the environment in Mexico

This article reviews and discusses environmental aspects related to vertical upward and downward groundwater flow. Flow systems are an important tool to understand groundwater functioning as related to the environment, in terms of obtaining indicators of human impact and solving specific questions about a groundwater-environment system that has been influenced by anthropogenic means. This involves two broad processes. First, groundwater changes due to activities of man in the surrounding environment as a result of: (1) alteration of recharge by modification of native vegetation and original soil cover; (2) reduction of groundwater discharge to coastal areas and to inland water bodies producing desiccation of wetlands, lakes and springs; (3) groundwater contamination from sewage looses and uncontrolled waste disposal locations, and (4) up-welling of undesirable water quality induced by extraction. Second, environmental alterations due to changes in the groundwater regime produce: (1) increase in soil erosion through the disappearance of vegetation due to water-table decline, (2) water-table rise due to unplanned artificial recharge resulting from water imports to a catchment, (3) decline in water levels for improper extraction regime, (4) soil subsidence due to extraction mismanagement, and (5) disappearance of phreatofites caused by excessive extraction. Unless further understanding between groundwater and the other components of the environment is sought, the relationship between people and its environment will be subject to some of these effects, potentially endangering adequate human development and sustainable water management.     

Assessment of water level threshold for groundwater restoration and over-exploitation remediation the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain (BTHP) is the political, economic and cultural center of China, where groundwater is the main source of water supply to support social and economic development. Continuous overdraft of the resources has caused a persistent decline of groundwater level and formed a huge cone of depression at a regional scale. This paper addresses current groundwater situation over the BTHP area. The paper also delineates the groundwater flow field, using groundwater level data, in order to provide an effective method for the restoration of groundwater level and associated water resources management. Based on the analysis of multiple factors, such as groundwater level, soil salinization, ground subsidence, groundwater recharge and storage, urban underground space security, formation of fractures, and seawater intrusion, the threshold for groundwater level restoration is defined, and some measures for groundwater over-exploitation management are accordingly proposed. The study shows that: (i) Since the 1980s to 2020, shallow groundwater level in the western part of the BTHP area has dropped by 25 m to 60 m, while the cumulative decline of deep groundwater in the central and eastern regions is in the range of 40–80 m; (ii) The water table of the shallow groundwater within the depression zone over the Western Piedmont Plain should be controlled in the range of 15–30 m below ground level (mbgl), while the depth of groundwater level in large and medium-sized urban areas should be controlled within 20–30 mbgl. The groundwater level in the resource preservation area should be controlled within 10–15 mbgl, and the groundwater level in the area with identified soil salinization in the central and eastern plain should be controlled within 3–10 mbgl. However, for the deep groundwater in the central and eastern plainwater, the main focus of the resources management is to control the land subsidence. The water level in the severe land subsidence area should be controlled within 45–60 mbgl, and in the general subsidence area should be controlled within 30–45 mbgl; (iii) Based on the water level recovery threshold and proposed groundwater overdraft management program, if the balance of abstraction and recharge is reached in 2025, the shallow groundwater abstraction needs to be gradually reduced by about 2×10⁸ m³. Meanwhile, the ecological water replenishment of rivers through the South-to-North Water Transfer Project should be increased to 28.58×10⁸ m³/a, and the deep groundwater abstraction needs to be gradually reduced by 2.24×10⁸ m³. To reach the target of shallow groundwater level in 2040, surface water replacement is recommended with a rate of 25.77×10⁸ m³/a and the ecological water replenishment of rivers in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project should reach 33.51×10⁸ m³/a. For deep groundwater recovery, it is recommended to replace the deep freshwater extraction with the utilization of shallow salt water by 2.82×10⁸ m³ , in addition to the amount of 7.86×10⁸ m³ by water diversion. The results are of great significance to the remediation of groundwater over-exploitation, the regulation of water resources development and utilization, and ecological protection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain.     

Groundwater and lake evolution in the Badain Jaran Desert ecosystem, Inner Mongolia

The amount and timing of aquifer recharge and the evolution of lakes and groundwater in the south-eastern Badain Jaran desert of Inner Mongolia, with high megadunes, has been investigated using stable isotopes and hydrochemistry. Unsaturated zone moisture profiles down to 22 m have recorded recharge over 1185 years. Small but finite amounts of recharge are recorded with mean recharge rates of 0.95-1.33 mm year^?1, determined using a chloride mass balance technique. The unsaturated profile also acts as a unique archive of hydrological and climate change. Before 1300, it was relatively dry but distinct wet periods may be recognised during 1340-1450, 1500-1610 and 1710-1820. Since the mid 1800s, the climate shows a trend towards greater aridity. The interdune lakes are generally fresh but locally, hypersaline lakes are found in juxtaposition. This implies that in general, the lakes have low residence times and flow back into the dune system, but sedimentary obstruction locally prevents outflow and extreme evaporation occurs. The stable isotope records show that the lakes are fed by palaeowaters which on the basis of other proxy data must predate the Last Glacial Maximum. Their recharge source is problematic but most likely this derives from a diminishing water table extending some 30 m south to the Yabulai Mountains.     

Towards a policy for sustainable use of groundwater by non-governmental organisations in Afghanistan

A 'first pass' groundwater management policy has been developed for use by non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Afghanistan, designed to prevent derogation of existing traditional water sources, aquifer over-abstraction and chemical deterioration of soil and groundwater quality. Key elements include (1) continuing promotion of groundwater as a drinking water source, (2) a presumption against use of motorised pumps to abstract groundwater for irrigation unless other options (surface water, qanats) are not available, (3) the use of groundwater for irrigation as a temporary alternative to surface water (i.e. a strategy for drought survival) rather than as a long-term development policy, (4) limiting groundwater abstraction to a long-term average of 1 l s^–1 km^–2, (5) siting irrigation wells at least 500 m from other groundwater sources and (6) analysing irrigation groundwater for electrical conductivity, sodium absorption ratio, boron and residual sodium carbonate alkalinity. Analyses of these parameters indicate that groundwater from some areas is of dubious suitability for irrigation. In some villages and towns, groundwater contains elevated nitrate and faecal bacteria concentrations, probably derived from latrines, sewage or animal wastes. Electronic Publication     

Sustainability analysis of groundwater resources in a coastal aquifer, Alabama

Fort Morgan Peninsula is an attached portion of a dynamic barrier complex in the northern Gulf of Mexico and is a large tourist area that brings in a significant amount of revenue for Alabama. Many of the hotels and tourist attractions depend on the groundwater as their water supply. The over-withdrawal of groundwater and saltwater intrustion will have a negative impact on the ecology, tourism and economy if groundwater resources are not properly monitored and managed. In this study a calibrated groundwater flow model was used to analyze the sustainability of groundwater resources at Fort Morgan Peninsula. Detailed flow budgets were prepared to check the various components of inflow and outflow under different water use and climatic conditions. The results indicated the locations where groundwater was over-pumped and subjected to saltwater intrusion, or will be subjected to saltwater intrusion under a range of projected water use and climatic conditions.     

Installation of a vertical slurry wall around an Italian quarry lake: complications arising and simulation of the effects on groundwater flow

Slurry walls are non-structural barriers that are constructed underground to impede groundwater flow or manage groundwater control problems. The study area is in the Piemonte plain (Italy), close to the River Po. Quarrying works carried out below the piezometric surface created two big quarry lakes. The local groundwater system is characterized by a lower semi-confined aquifer, which is overlain by a semi-permeable bed of clayey peat (aquitard) and an upper unconfined aquifer. Locally, the peat fades away and the granulometry of this horizon becomes silty sandy. A planned enlargement of the quarry will increase the size and depth of the quarry lakes. So the aquitard bed between the two aquifers will be damaged, creating a mixing rate of groundwater. Such a procedure would not be compatible with the presence of two municipal wells upstream from the quarries. Consequently, the installation of a vertical diaphragm (slurry wall) is recommended to separate the aquifers and to act as a filter for the groundwater flowing from the unconfined to the semi-confined aquifer. To predict the consequences caused by the installation of the vertical diaphragm separating the unconfined aquifer and the semi-confined one, a specifically adjusted finite-difference model was used. The model showed a maximum rising of the water table equal to 12 cm, just upstream of the diaphragm and for a distance of about 100 m, and a maximum lowering of 2 cm just downstream of the diaphragm. However, the slurry wall would not cause any change in the piezometric head in the area where there are municipal wells and, hence, will not have any negative effect on the functionality of the municipal wells. Moreover, the migration of water from the unconfined aquifer through the vertical diaphragm will stimulate a series of attenuation and auto-depuration processes of eventual contaminants. These processes are due to the higher crossing time that the groundwater flow takes to go through the vertical barrier (t _a = 96.5 days, whereas for the horizontal semi-permeable layer t _a = 9.6 days). So, the vertical diaphragm can be a resolutive element, representing a mediation and separation factor between the unconfined and the semi-confined aquifers along the border of the quarrying areas, and a protective barrier for the water quality of the quarry lake and the semi-confined aquifer.     

Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

Artificial lakes (reservoirs) are regulated water bodies with large stage fluctuations and different interactions with groundwater compared with natural lakes. A novel modelling study characterizing the dynamics of these interactions is presented for artificial Lake Turawa, Poland. The integrated surface-water/groundwater MODFLOW-NWT transient model, applying SFR7, UZF1 and LAK7 packages to account for variably-saturated flow and temporally variable lake area extent and volume, was calibrated throughout 5 years (1-year warm-up, 4-year simulation), applying daily lake stages, heads and discharges as control variables. The water budget results showed that, in contrast to natural lakes, the reservoir interactions with groundwater were primarily dependent on the balance between lake inflow and regulated outflow, while influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration played secondary roles. Also, the spatio-temporal lakebed-seepage pattern was different compared with natural lakes. The large and fast-changing stages had large influence on lakebed-seepage and water table depth and also influenced groundwater evapotranspiration and groundwater exfiltration, as their maxima coincided not with rainfall peaks but with highest stages. The mean lakebed-seepage ranged from ~0.6 mm day^?1 during lowest stages (lake-water gain) to ~1.0 mm day^?1 during highest stages (lake-water loss) with largest losses up to 4.6 mm day^?1 in the peripheral zone. The lakebed-seepage of this study was generally low because of low lakebed leakance (0.0007–0.0015 day^?1) and prevailing upward regional groundwater flow moderating it. This study discloses the complexity of artificial lake interactions with groundwater, while the proposed front-line modelling methodology can be applied to any reservoir, and also to natural lake interactions with groundwater.     

A topo-geochemical sequence study of groundwater in Asa drainage basin, Kwara State, Nigeria

 A strong geochemical gradient was observed in the thick overburden aquifer of the Asa drainage basin. Different types of groundwater occur at different (downslope) locations and groundwater table depths. The following sequence was noticed with increasing distance downslope or with increasing groundwater table depth: 1. Ca–Mg–HCO₃ water at about 390-m groundwater table elevations or upslope locations. 2. Ca–Mg–HCO₃–Cl water at middle-slope locations or groundwater table elevations of about 350 m above sea level; 3. Ca–Mg–SO₄–Cl water at downslope locations or groundwater table elevations of about 300 m above sea level. In this basin, changes in the type of water are expected at about every 40–50 m depth from the surface. Statistical analysis via the determination of the correlation coefficient (r) and regression analysis shows that about 80–99% of the variation in groundwater chemistry is accounted for by the topography, using the model presented in this paper. The rate of change in the sequence will depend on the permeability of the aquifer, which determines the rate of groundwater flow and the residence time, and the nature of recharge. Received: 4 February 1997 · Accepted: 22 July 1997     

Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.