Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

The general features of alpine permafrost such as spatial distribution, temperatures, ice content, permafrost and active-layer thickness within the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia are described. The modern thermal state of permafrost reflects climatic processes during the twentieth century when the average rise in mean annual air temperature was 0.006–0.032 °C/yr for the different parts of the Tien Shan. Geothermal observations during the last 30 yr indicate an increase in permafrost temperatures from 0.3 °C up to 0.6 °C. At the same time, the average active-layer thickness increased by 23% in comparison to the early 1970s. The long-term records of air temperature and snow cover from the Tien Shan's high-mountain weather stations allow reconstruction of the thermal state of permafrost dynamics during the last century. The modeling estimation shows that the altitudinal lower boundary of permafrost distribution has shifted by about 150–200 m upward during the twentieth century. During the same period, the area of permafrost distribution within two river basins in the Northern Tien Shan decreased approximately by 18%. Both geothermal observations and modeling indicate more favorable conditions for permafrost occurrences and preservation in the coarse blocky material, where the ice-rich permafrost could still be stable even when the mean annual air temperatures exceeds 0 °C.     

Past and recent changes in air and permafrost temperatures in eastern Siberia

Air and ground temperatures measured in Eastern Siberia has been compiled and analyzed. The analysis of mean annual air temperatures measured at 52 meteorological stations within and near the East-Siberian transect during the period from 1956 through 1990 demonstrates a significant and statistically significant (at 0.05 level) positive trend ranging from 0.065 to 0.59 °C/10 yr. A statistically significant (at 0.05 level) positive trend was also observed in mean annual ground temperatures for the same period. The permafrost temperature reflects changes in air temperature on a decadal time scale much better than on an interannual time scale. Generally, positive trends in mean annual ground temperatures are slightly smaller in comparison with trends in mean annual air temperatures, except for several sites where the discordance between the air and ground temperatures can be explained by the winter snow dynamics. The average trend for the entire region was 0.26 °C/10 yr for ground temperatures at 1.6 m depth and 0.29 °C/10 yr for the air temperatures. The most significant trends in mean annual air and ground temperatures were in the southern part of the transect, between 55° and 65° N. Numerical modeling of ground temperatures has been performed for Yakutsk and Tiksi for the last 70 yr. Comparing the results of these calculations with a similar time series obtained for Fairbanks and Barrow in Alaska shows that similar variations of ground temperatures took place at the same time periods in Yakutsk and Fairbanks, and in Tiksi and Barrow. The decadal and longer time scale fluctuations in permafrost temperatures were pronounced in both regions. The magnitudes of these fluctuations were on the order of a few degrees centigrade. The fluctuations of mean annual ground temperatures were coordinated in Fairbanks and Yakutsk, and in Barrow and Tiksi. However, the magnitude and timing of these fluctuations were slightly different for each of the sites.     

Permafrost and climatic change in China

The permafrost area in China is about 2.15×10⁶ km², and is generally characterized by altitudinal permafrost. Permafrost in China can be divided into latitudinal and altitudinal types, the latter can be further divided into plateau and alpine permafrost. Altitudinal permafrost also can be divided into five thermal stability types. The permafrost environment has changed significantly since the Late Pleistocene. In northeastern China, the southern limit of permafrost extended to 41–42°N during the last glaciation maximum; in the Holocene megathermal, it retreated northward. The ice wedges and permafrost formed during the Late Pleistocene are still present in the northern part of the Da-Xing'anling Mountains. The inactive ice wedges at Yitulihe indicate a cooling and subsequent permafrost expansion during the Late Pleistocene. The lower limit of altitudinal permafrost in western China has elevated from 800 to 1500 m since the last glaciation maximum. Compared with that in northern Europe and North America, latitudinal permafrost in northeastern China is less sensitive to climatic warming, but altitudinal permafrost, especially permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), is sensitive to climatic warming. Since the early 20th century, significant permafrost degradation has occurred and is occurring in most permafrost regions in China. Due to the combined influence of climatic warming and increasing anthropogenic activities, substantial retreat of permafrost is expected on the QTP and in northeastern China during the 21st century. Permafrost degradation has and will cast great influence on engineering construction, water resources and environments in the cold regions of China. The wetlands in the cold regions of China emit significant amounts of CH₄ and N₂O to the atmosphere and uptake atmospheric CO₂ at a considerable rate, which might contribute to the global atmospheric carbon budget and feedback to climatic systems. However, uncertainties about permafrost changes, rates of changes and their environmental impacts are still large and call for intensive studying.     

Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas

Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal.     

Warming permafrost in European mountains

Here we present the first systematic measurements of European mountain permafrost temperatures from a latitudinal transect of six boreholes extending from the Alps, through Scandinavia to Svalbard. Boreholes were drilled in bedrock to depths of at least 100 m between May 1998 and September 2000. Geothermal profiles provide evidence for regional-scale secular warming, since all are nonlinear, with near-surface warm-side temperature deviations from the deeper thermal gradient. Topographic effects lead to variability between Alpine sites. First approximation estimates, based on curvature within the borehole thermal profiles, indicate a maximum ground surface warming of +1 °C in Svalbard, considered to relate to thermal changes in the last 100 years. In addition, a 15-year time series of thermal data from the 58-m-deep Murtèl–Corvatsch permafrost borehole in Switzerland, drilled in creeping frozen ice-rich rock debris, shows an overall warming trend, but with high-amplitude interannual fluctuations that reflect early winter snow cover more strongly than air temperatures. Thus interpretation of the deeper borehole thermal histories must clearly take account of the potential effects of changing snow cover in addition to atmospheric temperatures.     

Modeled impacts of changes in tundra snow thickness on ground thermal regime and heat flow to the atmosphere in Northernmost Alaska

Seasonal snow covers the tundra surface for up to nine months of each year on the Alaskan North Slope. Variations in the snow thickness could strongly influence the thermal regime of the underlying soil and permafrost, and the surface energy balance. The impacts of increases and decreases in the tundra snow thickness on the thermal regime of snow surface, active layer, and permafrost, and on the conductive heat flow to the atmosphere were investigated numerically, by using an improved surface energy balance approach based one-dimensional heat transfer model. The baseline inputs for the numerical model are mean daily meteorological data and surface albedos collected at Barrow, Alaska from 1995 through 1999. Based on a study for the long-term mean daily maximum and minimum snow thickness distributions at Barrow in the snow season of 1948 through 1997, a snow thickness factor was defined and five simulation cases were run for the snow season of 1997–1998 by changing the snow thickness factor. The modeled results indicate that changes in snow thickness have significant impacts on ground thermal regimes and conductive heat flow to the atmosphere. Decreasing the snow thickness by 50% led to the maximum ground temperature decrease of 1.48 °C at 0.29 m depth, and 0.72 °C at 3.0 m depth; the magnitude of the mean conductive heat flow to the atmosphere for December increase of 4.3 Wm^− 2. Increasing the snow thickness by 50% resulted in the maximum ground temperature increase of 1.44 °C at 0.29 m depth, and 0.66 °C at 3.0 m depth; the magnitude of the mean conductive heat flow to the atmosphere for December decrease of 1.57 W m^− 2. On an annual basis, variation in the snow thickness by 50%, the ground temperature variations of more than 0.25 °C occurred as deep as 8.0 m below the ground surface. The modeled results also show that changes in snow thickness have a relatively small influence on the snow surface temperature.     

Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.     

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 ¹⁴C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.     

The influence of glaciation on the basin temperature regime

The effect of glaciation on the temperature regime in a sedimentary basin has been estimated. Four modeling cases, representing glaciation with cold (permafrost) glaciers and temperate glaciers as well as non-glaciation, were undertaken. The thermal consequences of taking the glaciation into account can be significant. Subsurface temperatures during a cold (permafrost) glaciation were as much as 25°C lower than the subsurface temperatures in a non-glaciated case. Increased conductivities due to frozen pore water contributed significantly to the cooling of the subsurface. Given two cases of cold glaciation, the first with increased thermal conductivities due to freezing of pore water and the second with no effect of freezing, the first case results in up to 10°C lower subsurface temperatures than the second one. A temperate glacier with a temperature of 0°C at the ice/sediment boundary is, as expected, less significant compared to a cold glacier. In this case subsurface temperatures were up to 7°C lower than the subsurface temperatures in the non-glaciated case. Thus it is crucial to know which type of glacier is present at which time as well as the effect of frozen pore water on thermal conductivity in order to have a good estimation of subsurface temperatures in glaciated areas.     

Evidence of an eolian ice-rich and stratified permafrost in Utopia Planitia,Mars

Western Utopia Planitia (UP) is dotted with scalloped depressions, small-sized polygons and pingo-like mounds. Within the planetary science community, there seems to be a general agreement that these relatively recent landscape features are indicative of an ice-rich permafrost. However, questions about the concentration of ice-content and the origin of the permafrost remain unanswered. The scalloped depressions (～100 m to few km in diam.) are thought to be the product of degradation of ground-ice by thawing or sublimation. Indeed, most of the scalloped depressions display bright bands on their floors. These have been described as possible exposed sedimentary layers, markers of recessional ponded water or slumped material by previous works. As the depressions could represent probes of the permafrost, therefore the study of the inner bands could help to investigate the permafrost. Here, we evaluate the disparate hypotheses of band origin using several HiRISE images and a HiRISE DEM. We show that the depressions have an inner stepped-profile. This profile is reminiscent of exhumed and tilted sedimentary layers of different cohesion. Using ArcGIS, we estimate the dip of several layers (n=52). The stratification is complex comprising layers of ～2–4 m thick having different shallow dips with generally a north or south plunge sense. This geometry of tilted layers is typical on Earth of fluviatile or eolian sedimentation. In the last few years, several evidences on Mars, among them the subkilometer-scale smoothing of the topography and climatic simulations, suggested that the northern mid-latitudes have been influenced by eolian processes. The inferred complex stratification inside scalloped depressions may support an eolian origin of the permafrost in UP. In periglacial regions on Earth where thermokarst lakes are formed by extensive thawing of ground-ice, ice-rich permafrost are composed of fluvial or eolian sediments containing ～15–80% of ice by volume. By analogy, the wide occurrence of kilometric scalloped depressions in UP could assume an ice-rich permafrost of possibly same ice-content. The presence of this ice-rich and stratified permafrost raises interesting questions about its relatively recent formation and climatic significance.     

Ground temperature histories in eastern and central Canada from geothermal measurements: evidence of climatic change

Inverse and direct methods have been used to analyze a large number of borehole temperature logs in order to infer past climatic changes. Results indicate a warming of 1–2°C in eastern and central Canada during the past 150 years. A period of cooling between 500 and 200 years before present, corresponding to the time of the “Little Ice Age”, has also been identified in the same areas. A regional ground temperature history is estimated for eastern and central Canada from the simultaneous inversion of several temperature logs. The inferred temperature changes appear correlated with the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide as reported from a Greenland ice core, and agree with existing meteorological and dendrochronological records for the area.     

Continental climate in the East Siberian Arctic during the last interglacial: Implications from palaeobotanical records

To evaluate the consequences of possible future climate changes and to identify the main climate drivers in high latitudes, the vegetation and climate in the East Siberian Arctic during the last interglacial are reconstructed and compared with Holocene conditions. Plant macrofossils from permafrost deposits on Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island, New Siberian Archipelago, in the Russian Arctic revealed the existence of a shrubland dominated by Duschekia fruticosa, Betula nana and Ledum palustre and interspersed with lakes and grasslands during the last interglacial. The reconstructed vegetation differs fundamentally from the high arctic tundra that exists in this region today, but resembles an open variant of subarctic shrub tundra as occurring near the tree line about 350 km southwest of the study site. Such difference in the plant cover implies that, during the last interglacial, the mean summer temperature was considerably higher, the growing season was longer, and soils outside the range of thermokarst depressions were drier than today. Our pollen-based climatic reconstruction suggests a mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA) range of 9–14.5 °C during the warmest interval of the last interglacial. The reconstruction from plant macrofossils, representing more local environments, reached MTWA values above 12.5 °C in contrast to today's 2.8 °C. We explain this contrast in summer temperature and soil moisture with a combination of summer insolation higher than present and climatic continentality in arctic Yakutia stronger than present as result of a considerably less inundated Laptev Shelf during the last interglacial.     

The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

We examine the response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity. We systematically investigate the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. We find that at low obliquity (15°) the atmospheric pressure will fall below 1 mbar; dust storms will cease; thick permanent CO₂ caps will form; the regolith will release CO₂; and H₂O polar ice sheets will develop as the permafrost boundaries move poleward. At high obliquity (35°) the annual average polar temperature will increase by about 10°K, slightly desorbing the polar regolith and causing the atmospheric pressure to increase by not more than 10 to 20 mbar. Summer polar ground temperatures as high as 273°K will occur. Water ice caps will be unstable and may disappear as the equilibrium permafrost boundary moves equatorward. However, at high eccentricity, polar ice sheets will be favored at one pole over the other. At high obliquity dust storms may occur during summers in both hemispheres, independent of the eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity and longitude of perihelion are most significant at modest obliquity (25°). At high eccentricity and when the longitude of perihelion is close to the location of solstice hemispherical asymmetry in dust-storm generation and in polar ice extent and albedo will occur.The systematic examination of the relation of climate and planetary orbit provides a new theory for the formation of the polar laminae. The terraced structure of the polar laminae originates when eccentricity and/or obliquity variations begin to drive water ice off the dusty permanent H₂O polar caps. Then a thin (meters) layer of consolidated dust forms on top of a dirty, slightly thicker (tens of meters) ice sheet and the composite is preserved as a layer of laminae composed predominately of water ice. Because of insolation variation on slopes, a series of poleward- and equatorward-facing scarps are formed where the edges of the laminae are exposed. Independently of orbital variations, these scarps propagate poleward both by erosion of the equatorward slopes and by deposition on the poleward slopes. Scarp propagation resurfaces and recycles the laminae forming the distinctive spiral bands of terraces observed and provides a supply of water to form new permanent ice caps. The polar laminae boundary marks the furthest eqautorward extension of the permanent H₂O caps as the orbit varies. The polar debris boundary marks the furthest equatorward extension of the annual CO₂ caps as the orbit varies.The Martian regolith is now a significant geochemical sink for carbon dioxide. CO₂ has been irreversibly removed from the atmosphere by carbonate formation. CO₂ has also benn removed by regolith adsorption. Polar temperature increases caused by orbital variations are not great enough     

Climate warming and growth of high-elevation inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau

The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km²) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.     

Response of a global climate model to a thirty percent reduction of the solar constant

An investigation is made of the “white earth” scenario, wherein the positive feedback mechanism, involving temperature, snow/ice cover,and albedo, renders the earth's surface covered with permanent snow freezes the oceans when the solar input is sufficiently low. A three-dimensional energy budget climate model is used to stimulate the earth's response to a 30% decrease in the solar constant. The decrease occurs over a period of 90 years. The model simulates an additional 100 years to allow conditions to stabilize. At the end of the model run, the planetary mean surface temperature is 204.8°K, the oceans are completely frozen over, and the maximum seasonal mean temperature any grid point of the planet is 251.6°K in the western Gobi Desert in JJA. The highest average annual temperature is 238.7°K in western Zaire. A significant portion of the planet's land surface is free of permanent snow cover. The result of this model run suggest that the hydrologic balance may provide a significant negative feedback mechanism to counter the snow/ice-albedo positive feedback mechanism and that the earth's climate may be less sensitive to variations in the solar constant than previously believed.     

Surface-temperature history during the last 1000 years near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska: applying control theory to the inversion of borehole temperature profiles

The temperature-depth profile data by Lachenbruch et al. (1982) in ice-bearing permafrost near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, are analyzed with control theory to retrodict the last 1000-yr history of the surface temperature. For this purpose, an inversion scheme for a nonlinear problem of heat diffusion in permafrost is developed. The following conclusions are made: (1) During the last 1000 years, the surface temperature near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, oscillated with amplitude of 3 ± 1°C. (2) There was a minimum of the temperature in 1853 AD between two maxima at 1623 AD and 1937 AD. (3) A net warming by 4°C occurred from 1853 AD to 1973 AD.     

Cryospheric change in China

This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km². The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km³ and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 10⁹ m³. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 10⁶ km² and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 10⁹ m³ yr^− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 10⁶ km². The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km³. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.     

Effects of a 2 × CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO₂ experiments (2 × CO₂) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO₂ climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to 1595 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +27 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO₂ climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO₂ climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr⁻¹ to 600 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +619 mm yr⁻¹ due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.     

On the origins of band topography, Europa

We use stereo-derived topography of extensional bands on Europa to show that these features can be elevated by 100-150 m with respect to the surroundings, and that the positive topography sometimes extends beyond the band margins. Lateral variations in shell thickness cannot maintain the observed topography for timescales greater than ∼0.1 Myr. Lateral density variations can maintain the observed topography indefinitely; mean density contrasts of 5 and 50 kg m⁻³ are required for shell thicknesses of 20 and 2 km, respectively. Density variations caused by temperature contrasts require either present-day heating or that bands are young features (<1 Myr old). Stratigraphic analyses suggest that these mechanisms are unlikely. The observation that bands form from ridges may be explained by an episode of shear-heating on ridges weakening the ridge area, and leading to strain localization during extension. Fracture porosity is likely to persist over Myr timescales in the top one-third to one-quarter of the conductive part of the ice shell. Lateral variations in this porosity (of order 20%) are the most likely mechanism for producing band topography if the ice shell is thin (≈2 km); porosity variations of 2% or less are required if the shell is thicker (≈20 km). If the ice shell is thick, lateral variations in salt content are a more likely mechanism. Warm ice will tend to lose dense, low-melting temperature phases and be buoyant relative to colder, salt-rich ice. Thus, lateral density variations will arise naturally if bands have been the sites of either localized heating or upwelling of warm ice during extension.