Long-term persistence of solar activity

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series of¹⁴C data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate,H 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.     

Doppler signatures of Hα flares in AE Aquarii

We present high-speed spectrophotometric observations of the Hα emission in the exotic cataclysmic variable AE Aqr. Over 10 000 spectra with a sampling rate of ∼ 6 s were obtained. The well-known 16.5- and 33-s oscillations were not detected in either the continuum or the line, nor were any quasi-periodic oscillations detected. The Hα line shows remarkably complex behaviour, with changes in flux of up to a factor of 3 in a few hours. The line does not act as a single entity — the instantaneous line profile is highly asymmetric and consists of a superposition of emission components that are localized in velocity. We find that during flares the Hα emission is delayed and decays more slowly than the continuum. The Hα variations are not linearly correlated with the continuum variations. Examination of the trailed spectrograms and Doppler tomograms reveals no signatures of an accretion disc, but rather supports the idea that mass is being ejected by a propeller mechanism.     

The integrated optical spectrum of the Crab nebula and evidence for its fading synchrotron continuum

A flux-calibrated optical spectrum integrated over the entire Crab nebula was obtained by making drift scans with a long-slit spectrograph. Compared to observations obtained over the past 40 years, these new data confirm an earlier controversial result that the [O iii ]  λλ4959, 5007  equivalent width is increasing with time, although the rate of ∼0.9 per cent yr⁻¹ is somewhat slower than that measured previously. Additionally, the Hβ equivalent width is increasing at a comparable rate, but the measured fluxes of both Hβ and [O  iii ] have changed less than their respective equivalent widths. The different rates of change in the measured fluxes and equivalent widths of these lines suggest that the optical synchrotron continuum from the Crab nebula is indeed fading rapidly. The apparent decline is consistent with a rate around  −0.5 (±0.2)  per cent yr⁻¹ at wavelengths near 5000  Å inferred independently from measurements of the optical continuum flux during the same time period.     

Photoionized Hβ emission in NGC 5548: it breathes!

Emission-line regions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and other photoionized nebulae should become larger in size when the ionizing luminosity increases. This 'breathing' effect is observed for the Hβ emission in NGC 5548 by using Hβ and optical continuum light curves from the 13-yr (1989–2001) AGN Watch monitoring campaign. To model the breathing, we use two methods to fit the observed light curves in detail: (i) parametrized models and, (ii) the memecho reverberation-mapping code. Our models assume that optical continuum variations track the ionizing radiation, and that the Hβ variations respond with time-delays τ due to light travel-time. By fitting the data using a delay-map  Ψ(τ, F _c)  that is allowed to change with continuum flux F _c, we find that the strength of the Hβ response decreases and the time-delay increases with ionizing luminosity. The parametrized breathing models allow the time-delay and the Hβ flux to depend on the continuum flux so that,  τ∝ F ^β_c  and   F _Hβ∝ F ^α_c  . Our fits give  0.1 < β < 0.46  and  0.57 < α < 0.66. α  is consistent with previous work by Gilbert and Peterson, and Goad, Korista and Knigge. Although we find β to be flatter than previously determined by Peterson et al. using cross-correlation methods, it is closer to the predicted values from recent theoretical work by Korista and Goad.     

The solar UV continuum 1440–1680 Å and its center-to-limb variation

The solar UV continuum has been derived from intensity-calibrated observations with the High-Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph - HRTS - on its second rocket flight in 1978. A database has been constructed using the spatially-resolved solar spectrum 1180–1700 Å along a slit extending from near disk center to the solar limb and crossing a sunspot and two active regions. The angular resolution is approximately 1.8″. The data consist of 1772 spectral scans in the full center-to-limb range, including both quiet and active solar regions. The distribution of solar UV intensities has been derived and the center-to-limb variations of the continuum intensities in the quiet Sun are studied. Both quantities show spectral variations, particularly across the Sii continuum edge at 1521 Å. The spectra have been fitted to curves of constant color temperature above and below the Sii edge. The derived center-to-limb variations have been compared to the values of Samain (1979) which are frequently referred to in the literature. A relatively large discrepancy may be explained by the higher spectral and angular resolution of the HRTS as compared to the rocket instrument used by Samain. Comparisons with the VAL III model calculations by Vernazza, Avrett, and Loeser (1981) show discrepancies between the observations and the model predictions, particularly with regard to the sign and amount of the intensity change across the Sii continuum edge. It is noted that some of the results presented, i.e., absolute intensities and brightness temperatures may change, pending confirmation of the SUSIM Spacelab 2 irradiance results (VanHoosieret al., 1988).     

New Evidence for Long-Term Persistence in the Sun's Activity

Possible persistence of sunspot activity was studied using rescaled range and detrended fluctuation analyses. In addition to actual Wolf numbers (1700–2000 A.D.), two solar proxies were used in this research, viz., an annual sunspot proxy obtained for 1090–1700 A.D. and sunspot numbers reconstructed from the decadal radiocarbon series (8005 B.C. – 1895 A.D). The reconstruction was made using a five-box carbon exchange model. Analyses showed that in all cases the scaling exponent is significantly higher than 0.5 in the range of scales from 25 yr up to 3000 yr. This indicates the existence of a long-term memory in solar activity, in agreement with results obtained for other solar indices.     

On the polarization of Hα scattered by neutral hydrogen in active galactic nuclei

Raman scattering by atomic hydrogen converts the UV continuum around Lyβ into optical continuum around Hα, and the basic atomic physics has been discussed in several works on symbiotic stars. We propose that the same process may operate in active galactic nuclei (AGN) and calculate the linear polarization of the broad emission lines Raman-scattered by high-column neutral hydrogen component. The conversion efficiency of the Raman scattering process is discussed and the expected scattered flux is computed using the spectral energy distribution of an AGN given by a typical power law. The high-column H  i component in AGN is suggested by many observations, encompassing the radio through UV and X-ray ranges.   When neutral hydrogen component with a column density ∼10²² cm⁻² is present around the active nucleus, it is found that the scattered Hα is characterized by a very broad width ∼20 000 km s⁻¹ and that the strength of the polarized flux is comparable to that of the electron-scattered flux expected from a conventional unified model of narrow-line AGN. The width of the scattered flux is mainly determined by the column density of the neutral scatterers where the total scattering optical depth becomes of order unity. The asymmetry in the Raman scattering cross-section around Lyβ introduces red asymmetric polarized profiles around Hα. The effects of the blended Lyβ and O  vi 1034 doublet are also investigated.   We briefly discuss the spectropolarimetric observations performed on the Seyfert galaxy IRAS 110548-1131 and the narrow line radio galaxy Cyg A. Several predictions regarding the scattering by the high-column neutral hydrogen component in AGN are discussed.     

Low-dimensional chaos and fractal properties of long-term sunspot activity

Two primary solar-activity indicators sunspot numbers(SNs)and sunspot areas(SAs)in the time interval from November 1874 to December 2012 are used to determine the chaotic and fractal properties of solar activity.The results show that(1)the long-term solar activity is governed by a low-dimensional chaotic strange attractor,and its fractal motion shows a long-term persistence on large scales;(2)both the fractal dimension and maximal Lyapunov exponent of SAs are larger than those of SNs,implying that the dynamical system of SAs is more chaotic and complex than SNs;(3)the predictions of solar activity should only be done for short-to mid-term behaviors due to its intrinsic complexity;moreover,the predictability time of SAs is obviously smaller than that of SNs and previous results.     

Spectroscopic evidence for two-pole accretion in the intermediate polar RX J0558+5353

We report on time-series optical spectrophotometry of the low-inclination intermediate polar RX  J0558+5353. This object exhibits coherent continuum and Hα line variations on both the orbital and white dwarf spin cycles. Despite the absence of a well-determined conjunction phase, the spectroscopic ephemeris combined with a favourable comparison with better-studied systems suggests that the impact between gas stream and accretion disc, or magnetosphere, drives orbital phenomena. Continuum variations over the spin cycle are consistent with previous broad-band data and indicate that accretion occurs on two poles of the primary star. We find no significant spin pulsations in the integrated line emission, but do detect variations in the resolved line profiles of Hα. Pulsed profiles are also suggestive of two-pole accretion. Double-peaked Hα line profiles and the non-detection of beat behaviour between the orbital and spin frequencies provide evidence for partial-disc transport in the system.     

Amplitude distributions of solar photospheric fluctuations

Amplitude distributions, which are nearly Gaussian, have been calculated for radial velocity, continuum brightness, spectral line equivalent width and spectral line central residual intensity fluctuations measured from high-dispersion high-resolution spectrograms taken at the center of the solar disk. The RMS and skewness S for each distribution have been calculated in a manner which allows testing of the homogeneity of the granulation pattern (i.e. variations in its statistics across the solar disk and with time). Pattern inhomogeneity across the disk is strongly indicated, and further evidence suggesting appreciable pattern persistence over time intervals 15 minutes is presented. The possibilities for investigations of S and its associated bi-spectrum are discussed. The qualitative values of S obtained are shown not to be due to unusually bright, rising granules (though a statistical tendency towards such granules is possible). An attempt to explain S for continuum brightness fluctuations in terms of the nonlinear effects of Planckian emission and opacity fluctuations in a stratified photosphere, leads to contradiction with the measured amplitude distributions, a contradiction which is probably due to an oversimplified treatment of radiative transfer in an inhomogeneous photosphere.     

Series of classical solar activity indices: Kislovodsk data

We present data on the series of solar activity indices, Wolf sunspot numbers W and total sunspot areas S, obtained at the Kislovodsk high-altitude station of the Pulkovo Observatory. The problem of properly extending the 133-year-long Zürich series of W and the 102-year-long Greenwich series of S, which were discontinued in 1980 and 1976, respectively, is emphasized. We stress that the Kislovodsk data have retained mutual homogeneity with the classical series until now and that they are preferred for extension. The question under consideration is of fundamental importance in studying the solar activity variations on long time scales and related processes in the Sun-Earth system.     

The continuous spectrum of MHD waves in 2D solar loops and arcades. First results on poloidal mode coupling for poloidal magnetic fields

A first attempt is made to study the continuous spectrum of linear ideal MHD for 2D solar loops and to understand how 2D effects change the continuum eigenfrequencies and continuum eigenfunctions. The continuous spectrum is computed for 2D solar loops with purely poloidal magnetic fields and it is investigated how non-circularity of the cross-sections of the poloidal magnetic surfaces and variations of density along the poloidal magnetic field lines change the continuous spectrum and induce poloidal wave number coupling in the eigenfunctions. Approximate analytical results and numerical results are obtained for the eigenfrequencies and the eigenfunctions and the poloidal wave number coupling is clearly illustrated. It is found that the continuum frequencies are substantially increased, that the ranges of the continuum frequencies are considerably enlarged and that the derivatives of the continuum frequencies normal to the magnetic surfaces are substantially increased. The eigenfunctions are strongly influenced by poloidal wave number coupling. Implications of these findings for the heating mechanisms of resonant absorption and phase mixing are briefly considered.Research Assistant of the Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research.     

Persistence of solar activity on small scales: Hurst analysis of time series coming from Hα flares

We calculated the Hurst exponent H for the daily averaged intensity Q of optical flares, an index which describes the solar activity. We found that H0.74±0.02 in the range of scales from about 20 days up to 450 days. This value is well beyond H= , expected for a stochastic Brownian process, thus indicating that the solar cycle could show persistence on small scales, in agreement with what has been found using other indices of the solar cycle.     

Visibility of facular fields in Mgi b-lines

On the basis of photoelectric observations, the center-to-limb variations of the brightness of restricted areas (≈0.5″ × 7.0″) of unresolved facular granules were determined at different frequencies in the lines λ5183 Å and λ5172 Å of Mgi. It was found that the chromospheric plages reach maximum intensity in the central parts of the lines at the same position on the solar disk where photospheric faculae have maximum brightness. The floccular emission is conspicuous in the cores of the lines up to a distance Δλ = 0.02 Å. In the portion of the lines corresponding to 0.02 Å < Δλ < 0.18 Å the contrast of flocculi decreases to a minimum value and then increases again in the inner wings of these lines. In the far wings the contrast of facular areas systematically decreases to the continuum values.     

Role of “Core” and “Halo” solar electrons in ionization of the interstellar medium

The probability of the interstellar wind atoms (H and He) to survive ionization by solar wind electrons is presented. For the first time a dual temperature electron distribution is used to model the effects of “core” (10 eV) and “halo” (60 eV) solar electrons on the probabilities. Survival probability distributions as a function of helicocentric distance were calculated for variations in the electron temperature, solar radiation force, and the interstellar wind flow velocity. These probabilities are important in determining the radial density distributions of the interstellar atoms. It has been found that the interstellar wind has a distinctively higher probability of surviving “halo” rather than “core” electron ionization only at heliocentric distances, ρ, smaller than about 0.5 a.u. For distances larger than 0.5 a.u., the probabilities of surviving “halo” electrons are close to the probabilities of surviving “core” electrons. Also, the probabilities for both “core” and “halo” electrons are relatively insensitive to changes in u_∞ (interstellar wind velocity at infinity), μ (the solar ratio of radiation to gravitational force) and α (a model parameter for solar electron temperature) for ρ > 0.5. For distances smaller than that, the sensitivity increases significantly.     

Hurst analysis of Mt. Wilson rotation measurements

I study the temporal variation of the solar rotation on time scales shorter than the 11-year cycle by analyzing the daily Mt. Wilson Doppler measurements from 1967 to 1992. The differential rotation is represented by the three coefficients,A, B, andC, of the following expansion: =A +B sin²() +C sin⁴(). TheA, B, andC time series show clearly the 11-year solar cycle and they also show high-frequency fluctuations. The Hurst analysis of these time series shows that a Gaussian random process such as observational noise can only account for fluctuations on time scales shorter than 20 days. For time scales from 20 days to 11 years, the variations of A give rise to a Hurst exponent ofH = 0.83, i.e., the variations ofA are persistent. The temporal variations ofB show the same behavior asC, which is different fromA. From one to 11 years, theB andC variations are dominated by the 11-year cycle, while for time lags shorter than about 250 days, theB andC fluctuations give rise to a Hurst exponent ofH = 0.66, which lies betweenH = 1/2, of a Gaussian random process, and the exponent of the persistent process shown byA. An analysis of the equivalent coefficients of the first three even Legendre polynomials, computed usingA, B, andC, provides additional information. For time scales between 100 and 1000 days, the ranges,R/S, of Legendre polynomial coefficients decrease with increasing order of the polynomials which suggests that the persistent process operates mainly on large spatial scales. The Hurst exponent ofH = 0.83 for variations inA is the same asH for monthly sunspot numbers with time scales between 6 months and 200 years and for¹⁴C radiocarbon data with time scales between 120 years and 3000 years, previously analyzed by other authors. The combined results imply that the underlying solar process shows the same persistent behavior for time scales as short as about 20 days up to time scales of a few thousand years.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.     

Eclipses Observed by Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) – A Sensitive Tool to Test Models for the Solar Irradiance

We analyze the light curves of the recent solar eclipses measured by the Herzberg channel (200?–?220 nm) of the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) onboard Project for OnBoard Autonomy (PROBA2). The measurements allow us to accurately retrieve the center-to-limb variations (CLV) of the solar brightness. The formation height of the radiation depends on the observing angle, so the examination of the CLV provide information about a broad range of heights in the solar atmosphere. We employ the 1D NLTE radiative transfer COde for Solar Irradiance (COSI) to model the measured light curves and corresponding CLV dependencies. The modeling is used to test and constrain the existing 1D models of the solar atmosphere, e.g. the temperature structure of the photosphere and the treatment of the pseudo-continuum opacities in the Herzberg continuum range. We show that COSI can accurately reproduce not only the irradiance from the entire solar disk, but also the measured CLV. Hence it can be used as a reliable tool for modeling the variability of the spectral solar irradiance.     

One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24.     

Heliolatitude and Time Variations of Solar Wind Structure from in situ Measurements and Interplanetary Scintillation Observations

The 3D structure of the solar wind and its evolution in time are needed for heliospheric modeling and interpretation of energetic neutral atoms observations. We present a model to retrieve the solar wind structure in heliolatitude and time using all available and complementary data sources. We determine the heliolatitude structure of solar wind speed on a yearly time grid over the past 1.5 solar cycles based on remote-sensing observations of interplanetary scintillations, in situ out-of-ecliptic measurements from Ulysses, and in situ in-ecliptic measurements from the OMNI 2 database. Since in situ out-of-ecliptic information on the solar wind density structure is not available apart from the Ulysses data, we derive correlation formulae between the solar wind speed and density and use the information on the solar wind speed from interplanetary scintillation observations to retrieve the 3D structure of the solar wind density. With the variations of solar wind density and speed in time and heliolatitude available, we calculate variations in solar wind flux, dynamic pressure, and charge-exchange rate in the approximation of stationary H atoms.