Catching air? Climate change policy in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have each participated actively in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties, and each is developing domestic rules and institutions to address UN obligations under the treaties. Russia and Ukraine are each Annex I/Annex B countries. Kazakhstan will become Annex I upon ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but has not yet established itself as Annex B. Each state has evolved a distinct set of policies and priorities in the domestic and the international arena. Drawing largely on interviews in each country, this article presents brief histories of the evolution of climate policy, focusing on each state’s behavior in the international arena, the sources of domestic policy leadership, and the forces that led to change in each national approach. Current policies and practices are evaluated with an eye towards learning from the successes and failures in each state.     

Catching air? Climate change policy in Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Abstract

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have each participated actively in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties, and each is developing domestic rules and institutions to address UN obligations under the treaties. Russia and Ukraine are each Annex I/Annex B countries. Kazakhstan will become Annex I upon ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but has not yet established itself as Annex B. Each state has evolved a distinct set of policies and priorities in the domestic and the international arena. Drawing largely on interviews in each country, this article presents brief histories of the evolution of climate policy, focusing on each state's behavior in the international arena, the sources of domestic policy leadership, and the forces that led to change in each national approach. Current policies and practices are evaluated with an eye towards learning from the successes and failures in each state.     

对IPCC第五次评估报告减缓气候变化国际合作评估结果的解读

IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告首次对减缓气候变化国际合作进行了独立成章的评估。主要结论认为,《联合国气候变化框架公约》依然是国际合作主要多边论坛,但对该《公约》基本原则的理解出现分歧,《京都议定书》的表现不尽如人意;目前国际合作机制在架构和参与主体方面日趋多元化;国际合作所面临的主要问题是参与度不够、遵约机制不健全。一个“自下而上”的全球协议、资金和技术激励可以促进广泛参与,贸易措施的介入可以完善气候政策、促进参与和遵约,《公约》外的各种小多边主义通过对接可对《公约》机制起到良好的补充作用。这些评估结论可能对2020年后应对气候变化国际合作产生重要影响。     

Lessons from JI and GIS for post-2012 carbon finance mechanisms in Russia and Ukraine

The main incentives for Russia's and Ukraine's participation in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol were its mechanisms. The opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from Joint Implementation (JI) and the Green Investment Scheme (GIS) during this first period. Four key factors that explain the success of these mechanisms are identified: the design of the mechanisms, the role of the private sector in their implementation, the coordination required, and the political will gained. Even though a weak rule of law, problems with policy implementation, and the ambiguous role of private-sector actors are not ‘make or break’ issues, they are likely to defer future mechanisms. Success and failure will, rather, hinge on the priority these factors are accorded by the top leadership. It is likely that simple mechanisms that only involve a few actors will be less complicated to set up and run than, for instance, emissions trading schemes (which require domestic burden sharing). Project-based options in which domestic actors have gained experience may be better suited. However, any lessons prior to the new mechanisms taking a clearer shape must be considered as preliminary.

Policy relevance

The Kyoto Protocol mechanisms, despite their problems, provided Russia and Ukraine with their main incentives for participation in the Protocol's first commitment period. As the chances that these countries will participate in the second commitment period seem slim, the opportunities that the anticipated post-2012 mechanisms will offer Russia and Ukraine are explored in light of the lessons from JI and GIS. The key factors that have determined the success and failure of these mechanisms are likely to be of relevance to future mechanisms. It is argued that – of the post-2012 options available – simple mechanisms with few actors involved should be chosen. Project-based options rather than emissions trading schemes may be more likely to succeed due to experience gained by domestic actors.     

解读美国《总统气候行动计划》的动因

长期以来,美国因缺少联邦政府层面的气候行动计划而受到国际社会的指责。这一情况在奥巴马总统的第二执政期有所改变。2013年6月,奥巴马行政当局发布《总统气候行动计划》,被认为是迄今为止最为全面的联邦气候变化应对计划。本文通过梳理行动计划的主要内容,从美国自身和国际社会角度分析了该行动计划出台的各种因素及影响,指出奥巴马行政当局旨在通过启动该气候行动和整合行政资源,修复国家气候战略,提升政治影响,同时此举有助于扭转美国在国际气候谈判中的被动地位,并重新确立领导地位。     

Institutions in conflict? the climate change flexibility mechanisms and the multinational trading system

In an attempt to combat climate change on a global scale, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in conjunction with a wide range of policies both at national and international level. In particular, flexibility mechanisms-emissions trading system, joint implementation (JI) and clean development mechanism (CDM)-were incorporated in the Protocol to fulfil the commitment of the Parties by utilising a market system. Under the flexibility mechanisms, an artificial market is created in which the emission allowances or emission reduction units are traded. Not surprisingly, such measures might result in significant impacts on the trade of both goods and services, presumably creating the most complex and dynamic interaction with the Multilateral Trading System (MTS) which is overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). If the implementation of flexibility mechanisms is identified as inconsistent with the requirements of the MTS, enforcement of such policies may prove difficult due to constraints imposed by GATT/WTO provisions.The purpose of this article is to scrutinise potential incompatibility between the implementation of flexibility mechanisms and GATT/WTO provisions. The rules governing the implementation of flexibility mechanisms have yet to be decided due to the divergent views of States regarding the design of the mechanisms. Thus, the analysis of the interaction will be undertaken based on hypothetical scenarios of each mechanism to account for all possible consequences of their implementation. Such an analysis will facilitate detection of any potential conflicts between the implementation of flexibility mechanisms and the trade regimes in advance, thus encompassing the potential incompatibility in designing the mechanisms and helping achieve increasingly effective implementation of flexibility mechanisms.     

Do international factors influence the passage of climate change legislation?

The number of climate change laws in major economies has grown from less than 40 in 1997 to almost 500 at the end of 2013. The passage of these laws is influenced by both domestic and international factors. This article reviews the main international factors, drawing on a powerful new dataset of climate legislation in 66 national jurisdictions. We find that the propensity to legislate on climate change is heavily influenced by the passage of similar laws elsewhere, suggesting a strong and so far under-appreciated role for international policy diffusion. International treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol work in two ways. The impact of the Kyoto Protocol itself is limited to countries with formal obligations under the treaty. In addition, the prestige of hosting an international climate summit is associated with a subsequent boost in legislation. Legislators seem to respond to the expectations of climate leadership that these events bestow on their host.

Policy relevance

A global solution to climate change will ultimately have to be anchored in domestic legislation, which creates the legal basis for countries to take action. Countries are passing climate legislation in a growing number. This article asks to what extent they are motivated to do so by international factors, such as existing treaty obligations. We find that the Kyoto Protocol has been a less important factor in explaining climate legislation outside Annex I than the passage of similar laws elsewhere. This suggests that international policy diffusion plays an important and so far under-appreciated role in global climate policy, complementing formal treaty obligations.     

Economics of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia

Abstract

In this article we propose a careful analysis of the economic consequences of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia, taking into account the most recently available data and the latest developments in the trends regarding Russian economic recovery. We present a review of different GHG forecasts for Russia and develop a new forecast for uncertain GDP growth and changing elasticity of GHG emission per GDP. Since the rate of growth remains uncertain, elasticity could change over time, as well as the fuel mix. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to simulate these uncertainties and to produce a reasonable interval for CO₂ emissions in 2010. The probability of Russia exceeding its Kyoto emissions budget is essentially zero. Further, we discuss the benefits for Russia from the Kyoto Protocol, and more generally from implementation of GHG mitigation policy. Ancillary benefits from Kyoto Protocol implementation will bring essential reductions in risk to human health. On the other hand, potential negative changes in the fuel mix and GDP structure, as well as a slowing of the innovation process, could exacerbate existing health problems. Alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol may bring much tougher commitments to Russia. We conclude that the Kyoto Protocol is the best possible deal for Russia. Therefore, Russia most will ratify it.     

Carbon Sequestration, Soil Conservation, and the Kyoto Protocol: Summary of Implications

This paper discusses relationships between soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is the first attempt to use the flexibility of the global market place to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions, mitigate climate change, and promote sustainable development. The protocol emerged first as a framework agreement, but through international negotiations it is progressing into sets of legal articles. These impose obligations on all signatories, but they also identify opportunities for improved environmental land management at local, national and international levels. This is particularly true for soil conservation, where the sequestration of carbon above and below ground increases soil organic matter, enhances soil fertility, and improves production, while concomitantly reducing atmospheric CO₂. It is a classic `win-win' situation. Both the evolving opportunities and the obligations under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed in the paper.     

Climate protection and newly industrialized countries: dilemmas and opportunities in Taiwan

Global climate policy currently is making efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized countries through implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Yet, the development of greenhouse gas emissions in newly industrialized and developing countries is deeply influencing the perspectives of stabilizing the global climate system. This study takes a closer look at the challenges facing Taiwan as an illustrative example to analyze the trends of greenhouse gas emissions, to assess current strategies and their controversies, and to explore strategies for mobilizing national climate policies. Analyzing the aspects of emission caps, carbon taxes, and clean development mechanisms may shed light on the necessity of involving newly industrialized countries and joint reduction into global climate protection schemes. Hopefully, this analysis may provide inspiring insights about the international climate regime and to other newly industrialized and developing countries which can then adopt effective policies for stabilizing the global climate system.     

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题：概念辨析与治理进展

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题涉及就业、关乎民生,是各国都很关注的政策领域之一,因此也被视为是支持应对气候变化的一种重要社会机制。近年来,国际社会积极推动建设气候治理公正转型制度体系,各国也在所制定的国家应对气候变化战略和规划中越来越多地提出与公正转型和就业相关的目标与措施。公正转型议题在国际气候治理进程中主流化的趋势给中国参与和引领全球气候治理带来了新的机遇与挑战。中国应加强关于该问题的基础性研究;在国内应对气候变化的行动中充分考虑该问题,保障受影响就业群体获得社会公正对待;总结具体实践经验;在政策领域协调上做好新的布局;积极参与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下公正转型治理体系的构建中。     

From Kyoto via Moscow to nowhere?

Abstract

Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate.     

应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的进展与启示

女性在应对气候变化中处于不利地位,也是应对气候变化中不可忽视的力量。国际社会已逐渐认识到在应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的重要意义,性别议题在气候谈判中的主流化趋势明显,《联合国气候变化框架公约》执行层面纳入性别考虑取得了长足的进展,以全球环境基金、绿色气候基金为代表的《联合国气候变化框架公约》资金机制已将性别政策纳入机构政策体系,并积极在项目层面推动性别政策的实施。虽然国际气候变化领域的性别主流化工作取得了较大进展,但仍存在女性参与气候变化决策的程度不足、减缓领域纳入性别考虑的程度不足等问题。目前中国气候变化领域对性别的关注不足,建议加强气候变化领域的性别问题研究,为履约工作提供支撑;在应对气候变化相关的政策体系中纳入性别考虑,加强与性别领域的沟通协作;加强气候变化相关机构性别主流化能力建设,明确职责安排;加强气候变化领域国内项目、“一带一路”项目和“南南合作”项目的性别主流化;切实加强中国女性应对气候变化能力,提高女性对气候行动的参与度。     

《巴黎协定》与国际减缓气候变化合作模式的变迁

由于温室气体排放的全球外部性属性,减缓气候变化必须通过国际合作实现,必须体现一定程度的中央集权,考虑参与主体广泛性、减缓行动的范围和行动力度三大要素。《联合国气候变化框架公约》《京都议定书》及其“多哈修正案”“坎昆协议”等方案,对中央集权程度和三大要素各有取舍,构建了不同的国际减缓气候变化合作模式,但从实践看都未能解决国际减缓合作的问题。《巴黎协定》构建了“承诺+审评”的新模式,有望实现参与主体和行动范围的全覆盖,并通过透明度、遵约和全球盘点机制鼓励各参与方提高行动力度。然而要实现公约目标和科学应对气候变化的要求,《巴黎协定》下的国际减缓合作必须通过强化资金、技术、能力建设机制来保障,并通过进一步明确中长期量化目标来促进各方提高行动力度。     

Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures

We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is “too little, too fast”; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance.     

Process matters: building a future climate regime with multi-processes

How do current processes in international climate-related institutions affect the architecture of a future climate regime, particularly various international negotiating processes related to climate change? A plausible image of future climate regime is developed to address this question. Three plausible scenarios are described for the next decade using the scenario-planning approach. Based on this, the scope for an internationally acceptable climate regime beyond 2012 is developed. The current processes under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and those outside the UN arena are encapsulated into three scenarios. Each scenario has a set of relatively preferable types of commitments, which differ from each other. Each process is likely to result in the establishment of one particular institution. Linkages are developed between the three institutions so that the climate regime as a whole will be environmentally effective. The three institutions are likely to converge in the long run, as countries' views on both climate change and a future climate regime converge.     

Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures

We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is “too little, too fast”; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance.     

欧盟将民航运输纳入欧盟排放交易体系问题探析

按照欧盟法律,自2012年1月1日起在欧盟境内起降的航班排放将被纳入欧盟排放交易系统。通过详细解读欧盟这一法律,指出欧盟排放交易体系是典型的"上限-交易"系统,即通过规定排放上限与进行配额交易实现减排目标。欧盟此举本质目的是强化气候变化主导权,最终为经济谋利,加快完善欧盟碳交易市场以建设欧元货币权力体系。其结果可能引发其与《联合国气候变化框架公约》及《京都议定书》等国际法之间的法律冲突,购买配额将对民航运输发展造成制约,"可测量、可报告和可核实"将对发展中国家能力建设提出挑战,并将一定程度影响《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的行业减排谈判走向。     

Implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russia

Abstract

This paper examines implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russia. It concludes that implementation without Russia is possible, although it requires political will on the part of the countries that wish to proceed with the Protocol. It would lead to higher compliance costs for Annex B buyer regions, but other regions, except Russia, would benefit financially. Russia would forego revenue of at least $20 billion for the first commitment period. Implementation without Russia could improve the environmental performance of the Protocol. It would reduce reliance on Annex B sinks, use of surplus assigned amount units (AAUs) for compliance, and the quantity of Kyoto units banked for subsequent commitment periods. Actual emissions by Kyoto Protocol Parties would fall, but the reduction may be offset by leakage to the US and Russia.     

The UNFCCC as a negotiation forum: towards common but more differentiated responsibilities

The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDRC) captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This principle has shaped the evolution of the climate regime and has played an important role in promoting compromise and agreement. It is argued that some twenty years after the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the principle of CBDRC remains as relevant as ever. The practice of Parties under the regime and, most recently, the concerted efforts to shape and flesh out the meaning of the principle, underscore the central role that it plays. At the same time, the binary understanding of CBDRC in the Kyoto Protocol is being replaced with a more nuanced, multifaceted understanding. The evolving interpretation of CBDRC is considered, and its continued relevance as the nucleus of a global burden-sharing regime for addressing climate change is demonstrated.

Policy relevance

The development of a common understanding of the principle of CBDRC is essential for the burden sharing and responsibilities under a future climate agreement. The CBDRC principle captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment, but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This article informs the international climate change negotiations by considering the development of the principle of CBDRC under the UNFCCC over time. It is concluded that, although there has been a significant shift in how the principle is understood, it remains crucial to the integrity and stability of the climate regime.