Aerosol Forcing: Rapporteur’s Report and Summary

This paper summarizes the discussions held during the session dedicated to Aerosol forcing at the Workshop Observing and Modelling Earth’s Energy Flows. The session Aerosol forcing was convened by P. Ingmann and J. Heintzenberg and included 10 presentations given by R. Kahn, D. Winker, U. Baltensperger, J. Haywood, S. Schwartz, J. Heintzenberg, H. Le Treut, U. Lohmann, R. Wood, and E. Philipona. The presentations given ranged from overviews of current observational capabilities to analyses of aerosol–cloud interactions in observations and models of varying complexity. This paper is organized around a few key points, summarizing the major points of agreement, disagreement, and discussion that the presentations gave rise to. The focus is largely on the uncertainties that remain with regard to aerosol forcing, particularly related to aerosol-cloud interactions and indirect aerosol effects on climate.     

Compartmentalisation and groundwater–surface water interactions in a prospective shale gas basin: Assessment using variance analysis and multivariate statistics on water quality data

An environmental concern with hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is the risk of groundwater and surface water contamination. Assessing this risk partly involves the identification and understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions because potentially contaminating fluids could move from one water body to the other along hydraulic pathways. In this study, we use water quality data from a prospective shale gas basin to determine: if surface water sampling could identify groundwater compartmentalisation by low-permeability faults; and if surface waters interact with groundwater in underlying bedrock formations, thereby indicating hydraulic pathways. Variance analysis showed that bedrock geology was a significant factor influencing surface water quality, indicating regional-scale groundwater–surface water interactions despite the presence of an overlying region-wide layer of superficial deposits averaging 30–40 m thickness. We propose that surface waters interact with a weathered bedrock layer through the complex distribution of glaciofluvial sands and gravels. Principal component analysis showed that surface water compositions were constrained within groundwater end-member compositions. Surface water quality data showed no relationship with groundwater compartmentalisation known to be caused by a major basin fault. Therefore, there was no chemical evidence to suggest that deeper groundwater in this particular area of the prospective basin was reaching the surface in response to compartmentalisation. Consequently, in this case compartmentalisation does not appear to increase the risk of fracking-related contaminants reaching surface waters, although this may differ under different hydrogeological scenarios.     

Introduction to ��Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. Volume I��

Eighteen papers are included in Volume 1 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: case studies of earthquake-generated tsunamis; tsunami forecast and hazard assessments; and theoretical and computational modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal behavior. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14?C16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

Introduction to “Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past,Present, and Future. Volume II”

Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

Introduction to “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume I. The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami”

Twenty-one papers on the 2011 Tohoku, Japan tsunami are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World.” Two papers discuss seismological aspects of the event with an emphasis on tsunami generation and warning. Five papers report the impacts and effects in Japan through field surveys of tsunami heights, building damage, and tsunami deposits or analysis of satellite data. Eight papers report the tsunami effects on other Pacific coasts, including the Kuril Islands, the USA, French Polynesia, the Galapagos Islands, Australia, and New Zealand. Three papers report on analyses of the instrumental records of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and two more papers report their modelling efforts of the tsunami. Several of the above papers also compare the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Chile tsunamis.     

Groundwater–surface water interactions in a river estuary and the importance of geomorphology: Insights from hydraulic,thermal and geophysical observations

This study presents the groundwater flow and salinity dynamics along a river estuary, the Werribee River in Victoria, Australia, at local and regional scales. Along a single reach, salinity across a transverse section of the channel (~80 m long) with a point bar was monitored using time-lapse electrical resistivity (ER) through a tidal cycle. Groundwater fluxes were concurrently estimated by monitoring groundwater levels and temperature profiles. Regional porewater salinity distribution was mapped using 6-km long longitudinal ER surveys during summer and winter. The time-lapse ER across the channel revealed a static electrically resistive zone on the side of the channel with a pronounced cut bank. Upward groundwater flux and steep vertical temperature gradients with colder temperatures deeper within the sediment suggested a stable zone of fresh groundwater discharge along this cut bank area. Generally, less resistive zones were observed at the shallow portion of the inner meander bank and at the channel center. Subsurface temperatures close to surface water values, vertical head gradients indicating both upward and downward groundwater flux, and higher porewater salinity closer to that of estuary water suggest strong hyporheic circulation in these zones. The longitudinal surveys revealed higher ER values along deep and sinuous segments and low ER values in shallow and straighter reaches in both summer and winter; these patterns are consistent with the local channel-scale observations. This study highlights the interacting effects of channel morphology, broad groundwater–surface water interaction, and hyporheic exchange on porewater salinity dynamics underneath and adjacent to a river estuary.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Introduction to “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Volume II. Tsunamis from 1755 to 2010”

Eighteen papers on past and recent destructive tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World.” Three papers discuss deep-sea (DART) and coastal tsunami observations, warning systems and risk management in the Pacific Ocean. Four papers examine the 1755 Lisbon, 1964 Alaska, 2003 Algeria, and 2011 Haiti tsunamis. Four more papers, as well as some papers in Volume I, report on various aspects of the 2010 Chile tsunami. Two papers present some results of field survey and modelling investigation of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, tsunami. Three papers report on modelling efforts of tsunami generation by earthquake and landslide, and of tsunami propagation. Finally, two papers discuss hazard assessment using a probabilistic approach.     

Depth–energy and depth–force relationships in open channel flows. II: Analytical findings for power-law cross-sections

In a recent work [Valiani A, Caleffi V. Depth–energy and depth–force relationships in open channel flows: analytical findings. Adv Water Resour 2008;31(3):447–54], the authors analytically inverted the depth–specific energy and depth–total force relationships for flows in open channels with wide rectangular cross-sections.     

Explosive lava–water interactions I: architecture and emplacement chronology of volcanic rootless cone groups in the 1783–1784 Laki lava flow, Iceland

To determine the relationships between rootless cone emplacement mechanisms, morphology, and spatial distribution, we mapped the Hnúta and Hrossatungur groups of the 1783–1784 Laki lava flow in Iceland. We based our facies maps on Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements, photogeological interpretations, and supporting field observations. The study area covers 2.77 km² and includes 2216 explosion sites. To establish the timing of rootless cone formation we incorporated tephrochronological constraints from eighty-eight stratigraphic sections and determined that the Hnúta and Hrossatungur groups are composite structures formed by the emplacement of six geographically and chronologically discrete domains. Rootless eruptions initiated in domain 1 on the first day of the Laki eruption (June 8, 1783) and lasted 1–2 days. The second episode of rootless activity began in domain 2 on June 11 and lasted 1–3 days. The four domains of the Hrossatungur group dominantly formed after June 14 and exhibit a complex emplacement sequence that reflects interactions between the Laki lava, contemporaneously emplaced rootless cones, and an existing topographic ridge. In the study area, we identify three distinct rootless cone archetypes (i.e., recurring morphological forms) that are related to tube-, channel-, and broad sheet lobe-fed eruptions. We assert that emplacement of lava above compressible substrates (e.g., unconsolidated sediments) may trigger rootless eruptions by causing subsidence-induced flexure and failure of the basal crust, thereby allowing molten lava (fuel) to come into direct contact with groundwater (coolant) and initiating analogs to explosive molten fuel–coolant interactions (MFCIs).     

Comment on Hearty,P.J. and O'Leary,M.J., 2008. Carbonate eolianites,quartz sands,and Quaternary sea-level cycles,Western Australia: A chronostratigraphic approach. Quaternary Geochronology 3: 26–55

A proposal that the yellow sands which commonly overlie Pleistocene eolianites along the west coast of Western Australia may have their origin from major extensions of inland deserts during times of severe aridity, is refuted on several grounds. The eolianites typically are deeply degraded remnants of the original coastal dunes, which contained a high content of non-calcareous detritus. Hence plentiful residual sand will accumulate during weathering of a dune. Studies on heavy mineral content of the yellow sands have shown that there is an inland ageing trend consistent with local derivation from successive dune belts, and have also pointed to local sources for yellow color in the sand, without need to postulate a distant source. Localized denudations have however occurred, during which sand is blown inland to leave tracts of bared limestone. No remnants of the alleged desert extensions exist in the hinterland of the coastal belt.     

Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg–Richter laws

The method for forecasting the intensity of the aftershock processes after strong earthquakes in different magnitude intervals is considered. The method is based on the joint use of the time model of the aftershock process and the Gutenberg–Richter law. The time model serves for estimating the intensity of the aftershock flow with a magnitude larger than or equal to the magnitude of completeness. The Gutenberg–Richter law is used for magnitude scaling. The suggested approach implements successive refinement of the parameters of both components of the method, which is the main novelty distinguishing it from the previous ones. This approach, to a significant extent, takes into account the variations in the parameters of the frequency–magnitude distribution, which often show themselves by the decreasing fraction of stronger aftershocks with time. Testing the method on eight aftershock sequences in the regions with different patterns of seismicity demonstrates the high probability of successful forecasts. The suggested technique can be employed in seismological monitoring centers for forecasting the aftershock activity of a strong earthquake based on the results of operational processing.