Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga–Bhadra river basin,India with HEC‐HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calculating actual crop evapotranspiration under soil water stress conditions with appropriate numerical methods and time step

Calculation of actual crop evapotranspiration under soil water stress conditions is crucial for hydrological modeling and irrigation water management. Results of actual evapotranspiration depend on the estimation of water stress coefficient from soil water storage in the root zone, which varies with numerical methods and time step used. During soil water depletion periods without irrigation or precipitation, the actual crop evapotranspiration can be calculated by an analytical method and various numerical methods. We compared the results from several commonly used numerical methods, including the explicit, implicit and modified Euler methods, the midpoint method, and the Heun's third‐order method, with results of the analytical method as the bench mark. Results indicate that relative errors of actual crop evapotranspiration calculated with numerical methods in one time step are independent of the initial soil water storage in the range of soil water stress. Absolute values of relative error decrease with the order of numerical methods. They also decrease with the number of time step, which can ensure the numerical stability of successive simulation of soil water balance. Considering the calculation complexity and calculation errors caused by numerical approximation for different time step and maximum crop evapotranspiration, the explicit Euler method is recommended for the time step of 1 day (d) or 2 d for maximum crop evapotranspiration less than 5 mm/d, the midpoint method or the modified Euler method for the time step of up to one week or 10 d for maximum crop evapotranspiration less than 5 mm/d, and the Heun's third‐order method for the time step of up to 15 d. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration over Haihe River basin in China

Spatial and temporal characteristics of actual evapotranspiration over the Haihe River basin in China during 1960–2002 are estimated using the complementary relationship and the Thornthwaite water balance (WB) approaches. Firstly, the long-term water balance equation is used to validate and select the most suitable long-term average annual actual evapotranspiration equations for nine subbasins. Then, the most suitable method, the Pike equation, is used to calibrate parameters of the complementary relationship models and the WB model at each station. The results show that the advection aridity (AA) model more closely estimates actual evapotranspiration than does the Granger and Gray (GG) model especially considering the annual and summer evapotranspiration when compared with the WB model estimates. The results from the AA model and the WB model are then used to analyze spatial and temporal changing characteristics of the actual evapotranspiration over the basin. The analysis shows that the annual actual evapotranspirations during 1960–2002 exhibit similar decreasing trends in most parts of the Haihe River basin for the AA and WB models. Decreasing trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which directly affect water supply and the energy available for actual evapotranspiration respectively, jointly lead to the decrease in actual evapotranspiration in the basin. A weakening of the water cycle seems to have appeared, and as a consequence, the water supply capacity has been on the decrease, aggravating water shortage and restricting sustainable social and economic development in the region.     

QUELQUES EXEMPLES D'APPLICATION DES MESURES DE RAYONNEMENT À LA DÉTERMINATION DE L'ÉVAPO-TRANSPIRATION EN CLIMAT TROPICAL

ABSTRACT

From data obtained at stations set up in Chad, the Central African Republic and Congo-Brazzaville, stretching from the desert to the equatorial zone, it has been possible to compare measurements of evapotranspiration and of evaporation with results obtained by using the energy-balance method. Several difficulties arise in these comparisons since the scale of the measurements (small evaporating surfaces) is generally different from that of the climatic characteristics on which evaporation is dependent.

After proposing a model to resolve this problem and fitting the empirical coefficients of Penman's formula, the author has applied this formula to some results derived for stations in Congo-Brazzaville; the potential evapotranspiration calculated in this way is in good agreement with water balance data.

At these stations the evapotranspiration energy may be a constant percentage of global short-wave radiation.

Finally, the energy-balance method has been used at Brazzaville to measure the actual evapotranspiration over grass during the dry season. The result is that actual and potential evapotranspiration were found to be closely related.

These results indicate the importance of solar readiation in the field of hydrometeorology.     

Hillslope‐scale probabilistic characterization of soil moisture dynamics and average water balance

Probabilistic water balance modelling provides a useful framework for investigating the interactions between soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere. It has been used to estimate temporal soil moisture dynamics and ecohydrological responses at a point. This study combines a nonlinear rainfall–runoff theory with probabilistic water balance model to represent varied source area runoff as a function of rainfall depth and a runoff coefficient at hillslope scale. Analytical solutions of the soil‐moisture probability density function and average water balance model are then developed. Based on a sensitivity analysis of soil moisture dynamics, we show that when varied source area runoff is incorporated, mean soil moisture is always lower and total runoff higher, compared with the original probabilistic water balance model. The increased runoff from the inclusion of varied source area runoff is mainly because of a reduction in leakage when the index of dryness is less than one and evapotranspiration when the index of dryness is greater than one. Inclusion of varied source area runoff in the model means that the actual evapotranspiration is limited by less available water (i.e. water limit), which is stricter than Budyko’s and Milly’s water limit. Application of the model to a catchment located in Western Australia showed that the method can predict annual value of actual evapotranspiration and streamflow accurately. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS‐based variable source area hydrology model

Effective control of nonpoint source pollution from contaminants transported by runoff requires information about the source areas of surface runoff. Variable source hydrology is widely recognized by hydrologists, yet few methods exist for identifying the saturated areas that generate most runoff in humid regions. The Soil Moisture Routing model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology for watersheds with shallow sloping soils. The model combines elevation, soil, and land use data within the geographic information system GRASS, and predicts the spatial distribution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, saturation‐excess overland flow (i.e., surface runoff), and interflow throughout a watershed. The model was applied to a 170 hectare watershed in the Catskills region of New York State and observed stream flow hydrographs and soil moisture measurements were compared to model predictions. Stream flow prediction during non‐winter periods generally agreed with measured flow resulting in an average r² of 0·73, a standard error of 0·01 m³/s, and an average Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0·62. Soil moisture predictions showed trends similar to observations with errors on the order of the standard error of measurements. The model results were most accurate for non‐winter conditions. The model is currently used for making management decisions for reducing non‐point source pollution from manure spread fields in the Catskill watersheds which supply New York City's drinking water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of actual evapotranspiration from an alluvial aquifer of the Kouris catchment (Cyprus) using continuous streamflow records

The Kouris catchment is located in the south of the Troodos massif in Cyprus. The hydrology is driven by a Mediterranean climate, a mountainous topography, and a complex distribution of hydrogeological properties resulting from complex geology. To quantify the regional water balance further, a simple method using continuous streamflow records in the River Limnatis (Kouris catchment) was applied to calculate the actual evapotranspiration rate in the dry seasons. It was found that daily cycles of streamflow, recorded by automatic pressure logger, were caused by direct evaporation from the groundwater table and by transpiration of riparian forest. The daily amounts of ‘missing’ streamflow were calculated for the period 30 October–4 November 2001 and were extrapolated to the entire dry season and to the whole Kouris catchment. The actual evapotranspiration rate from the alluvial aquifer of the region is 2·4 ± 0·5 Mm³ for April–September 2001. The validity of the assumptions and the uncertainties in the estimates used in the method are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐cover changes on the hydrological response of interior Columbia River basin forested catchments

The topographically explicit distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) is used to simulate hydrological effects of changes in land cover for four catchments, ranging from 27 to 1033 km², within the Columbia River basin. Surface fluxes (stream flow and evapotranspiration) and state variables (soil moisture and snow water equivalent) corresponding to historical (1900) and current (1990) vegetation are compared. In addition a sensitivity analysis, where the catchments are covered entirely by conifers at different maturity stages, was conducted. In general, lower leaf‐area index (LAI) resulted in higher snow water equivalent, more stream flow and less evapotranspiration. Comparisons with the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which parameterizes, rather than explicitly represents, topographic effects, show that runoff predicted by DHSVM is more sensitive to land‐cover changes than is runoff predicted by VIC. This is explained by model differences in soil parameters and evapotranspiration calculations, and by the more explicit representation of saturation excess in DHSVM and its higher sensitivity to LAI changes in the calculation of evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Catchment storage and residence time in a periodically irrigated watershed

Understanding anthropogenic impacts on water storage and water flow pathways in catchments is an ongoing challenge in hydrology. Here, we study the dynamics of subsurface storage and residence time of water in a catchment in Berkeley, California, that is within a regional park but contains diverse land use within its perimeter, including a periodically irrigated golf course. Our study combines several isotopic tracers with water budget data to examine sources of water in a stream draining the site. Irrigation water, applied to a small area of the watershed, is a minor component of the water budget. However, geochemical tracers reveal that irrigation water is a significant fraction of stream flow downstream of the golf course during baseflow and during precipitation events. Isotopic tracers indicate that the watershed has a preference to release young water for stream flow generation, resulting in contrasting tritium ages for stream water and groundwater of 1.3 ± 0.5 year and 8.2 ± 1.7 year, respectively. We determined that the older water is a very small component (0.7%) of the stream water in the tail of an assumed exponential distribution. We used the seasonal variation of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water over two water years to explain the damping of the isotopic signature of stream water, which yields information about the catchment's response to the input signal. The methods described here may be applicable to other urban or suburban headwater catchments in areas with a component of non-natural recharge from, for example, leaky infrastructure, storm water routing or dry season irrigation.     

Hydrological sciences—society's needs

Abstract

The hydrological regime of a mountainous catchment, in this instance the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece, was simulated for altered climates resulting when using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model for carbon dioxide doubling. The catchment snow water equivalent was predicted on the basis of the snow accumulation and ablation model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS), while the catchment runoff, as well as actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture storages, were simulated through application of the soil moisture accounting model of NWSRFS. Two scenarios of monthly climate change were drawn from the GISS model, one associated with temperature and precipitation changes, while the other referred to temperature changes alone. A third hypothetical scenario with temperature and precipitation changes similar to those corresponding to the mean monthly GISS scenarios was used to test the sensitivity of the monthly climate change of the hypothetical case on catchment hydrology. All three scenarios projected decreases in average snow accumulations and in spring and summer runoff and soil moisture, as well as increases in winter runoff and soil moisture storage and spring evapotranspiration.     

Irrigation impact on annual water balance of the oases in Tarim Basin,Northwest China

By taking the sum of annual precipitation and lateral water input (in which irrigation water withdrawal is the main component) for water availability, the Budyko hypothesis and Fu's formula derived from it was extended to the study of oases in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China. For both long‐term (multi‐year) and annual values on water balances in the 26 oases subregions, the extended Fu's formula was confirmed. Regional patterns on water balance on the 26 oases subregions were related to change in land‐use types due to increased area for irrigation. Moreover, an empirical formula for the parameter was established to reflect the influences of change in land use on water balance. The extended Budyko framework was employed to evaluate the impact of irrigation variability on annual water balance. According to the multi‐year mean timescale, variabilities in actual evapotranspiration in the oases were mainly controlled by variability in irrigation water withdrawal rather than potential evapotranspiration. The influences of variability on potential evapotranspiration became increasingly apparent together with increases in irrigation water withdrawal. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation water sources in California's Sierra Nevada (USA) are young and change over time,a multi-isotope (δ18O, δ2H, 3H) tracer approach.

Sierra Nevada forests transpire a significant amount of California's water resources, sparking interest in applying forest management to improve California's water supply. Determining the source water of evapotranspiration enables forest managers to make informed decisions. To this end, a significant interest in critical zone science is to develop new methods to work across time scales to predict subsurface water storage and use. In this study, forest vegetation accessed young water and switched sources depending on availability, suggesting that forest drought vulnerability may depend on the range of water sources available (rain, snowmelt and deeply stored water). This finding also suggests that changes in transpiration rates may have immediate effects on water sources in close proximity to vegetation, and delayed effects on storage and runoff. New δ¹⁸O, δ²H and ³H data were used to track precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and storage through the critical zone seasonally, including seasons where evapotranspiration and snowmelt were in phase (winter snowmelt) and out of phase (seasonally dry summer). The main source of this headwater catchment's runoff is derived from its meadow saturated zone water, which was dominated by snowmelt. Water that originated as snowmelt contributed to transpiration, unless other sources, such as recent rain, became available. In cases where xylem δ¹⁸O and δ²H signatures matched those of deeper saturated zone water, ³H data showed that xylem water was distinctly younger than the deep saturated zone water. During 2016, which experienced relatively normal snowpack in winter and seasonally dry summer conditions, mean summer saturated zone water and vegetation water were similar in δ¹⁸O, −12.4 ± 0.04 ‰ and − 12.5 ± 0.3 ‰, respectively, but were distinctly different in ³H, 5.5 ± 0.2 pCi/L and 13.7 ± 1.1 pCi/L, respectively. While δ¹⁸O shows that vegetation and meadow saturated zone water have similar origins, ³H shows they have dissimilar ages.     

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

Evaluating actual evapotranspiration and impacts of groundwater storage change in the North China Plain

As a critical water discharge term in basin‐scale water balance, accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is therefore important for sustainable water resources management. The understanding of the relationship between ET and groundwater storage change can improve our knowledge on the hydrological cycle in such regions with intensive agricultural land usage. Since the 1960s, the North China Plain (NCP) has experienced groundwater depletion because of overexploitation of groundwater for agriculture and urban development. Using meteorological data from 23 stations, the complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration model is evaluated against estimates of ET derived from regional water balance in the NCP during the period 1993–2008. The discrepancies between calculated ET and that derived by basin water balance indicate seasonal and interannual variations in model parameters. The monthly actual ET variations during the period from 1960 to 2008 are investigated by the calibrated model and then are used to derive groundwater storage change. The estimated actual ET is positively correlated with precipitation, and the general higher ET than precipitation indicates the contributions of groundwater irrigation to the total water supply. The long term decreasing trend in the actual ET can be explained by declining in precipitation, sunshine duration and wind speed. Over the past ~50 years, the calculated average annual water storage change, represented by the difference between actual ET and precipitation, was approximately 36 mm, or 4.8 km³; and the cumulative groundwater storage depletion was approximately 1700 mm, or 220 km³ in the NCP. The significantly groundwater storage depletion conversely affects the seasonal and interannual variations of ET. Irrigation especially during spring cause a marked increase in seasonal ET, whereas the rapid increasing of agricultural coverage over the NCP reduces the annual ET and is the primary control factor of the strong linear relationship between actual and potential ET. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introduction to ‘A tribute to Edward P. Glenn (1947–2017): A legacy of scientific environmental assessment and applications in hydrological processes’

This special issue (SI) ‘A Tribute to Edward P. Glenn (1947-2017): A legacy of Scientific Environmental Assessment and Applications in Hydrological Processes’ is a celebration of the extensive work of Dr. Ed Glenn that was instrumental across multiple sub-disciplines of hydrology. The SI highlights four primary areas of hydrological processes that are cornerstones of Ed Glenn's over four decades of research. These contributions cover the following specialties: (i) Hydrology in the Colorado River Delta; (ii) Riparian ecosystem water use; (iii) Riparian Plant ecophysiology and ecohydrology; and (iv) Methods and models to characterize evapotranspiration. Since Ed was passionate about the dryland delta at the end of the Colorado River, we begin with four research studies that focus on this special region on the U.S.–Mexico border which encompasses four states (Baja and Sonora in Mexico and California and Arizona in United States) as well as tribal communities in the transboundary area. The Colorado River delta reaches the Northern Gulf of California in the Sea of Cortez which has been designated as a UNESCO international biosphere reserve (‘Reserva de la Biosfera El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar’), which includes the Upper Gulf of California and Delta of the Colorado River (‘Reserva de la Biosfera Alto Golfo de California y Delta del Río Colorado’). Ed spent the majority of his last three decades on water balance studies and on ground-based transpiration quantification for validation of satellite and airborne remote sensing methods. We wrap up the special issue with contributions related to improving satellite and airborne remote sensing estimation of actual evapotranspiration. It is our pleasure to summarize the 16 research studies contributed to the special issue to honour Ed Glenn's research interests.     

Understanding hydrological trends by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model

Abstract

The actual evapotranspiration and runoff trends of five major basins in China from 1956 to 2000 are investigated by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model. Based on the equations of Choudhury and Porporato, the actual evapotranspiration trends and the runoff trends are attributed to changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, rainfall depth and water storage capacity which depends on the soil water holding capacity and the root depth. It was found that the rainfall depth increased significantly in China during the past 50 years, especially in southern basins. Contributions from changes in the water storage capacity were significant in basins where land surface characteristics have changed substantially due to human activities. It was also observed that the actual evapotranspiration trends are more sensitive to precipitation trends in water-limited basins, but more sensitive to potential evapotranspiration trends in energy-limited basins.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Porporato     

Evaluation of CADISSE a regional storage capacity model

In this paper the validity of CADISSE, a regional storage capacity model developed to assess the sensitivity of catchment hydrology to climate variability, is examined. In CADISSE, catchment discharge sensitivity is expressed as the ratio of present maximum reservoir storage to catchment storage capacity. Present maximum storage should be interpreted as the maximum amount of water stored in a catchment at present. Catchment storage capacity is defined as the absolute amount of water that can be stored, given the catchment's dimensions and lithological characteristics. With CADISSE, catchment sensitivity can be quantified regionally using limited discharge data and topographic information. Furthermore, storage capacities can be assessed. CADISSE was successfully applied to 15 catchments in the Upper Loire Basin. However, successful application does not necessarily mean that the variables (present maximum storage and storage capacity) represent real world values. Therefore, a two‐step evaluation procedure is presented in this paper. To evaluate CADISSE, (1) the accurate assessment of regionally determined storage capacity, and (2) the importance of present maximum storage for catchment discharge sensitivity is examined with a daily discharge model by comparing observed and simulated catchment storage behaviour for dry and wet periods. The evaluation was carried out using the probability distributed daily discharge model, PDM, and a weather generator for three catchments with different storage capacities and storage behaviour. Results indicate that catchment storage capacity can be correctly quantified with CADISSE and that differences in storage behaviour are indeed important for analyses of catchment sensitivity. Hence, CADISSE has great potential as it can be used to identify flood‐ and drought‐prone catchments under present and future conditions. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.