卫星热红外异常影象在地震短临预报中的应用

阐述了应用卫星热红外景象异常进行出地震短临预报的显著效果，并探讨了热红外异常发的机制，准确地地震预报，尤其是短临预报是减轻地震灾害的重要前提，地震的发生是有各种前兆的，但识别震兆一直是地震预报中的一个关键性的难题。     

强震前地磁秒数据异常及其短临预测意义

通过分析6个强震震中附近地磁Z分量秒数据的处理结果显示: 一些强震在震前反复出现较强的地磁异常现象.此现象在震前百余天至四十余天和临震前出现; 地磁场的特大异常持续天数随震级的增大而增大, 其异常天数与总体天数的比值随着震级的增大而增大.该特性对于短临地震预报预警及防震减灾具有一定意义.      

基于动态重力信息的地震前兆与强震短临预报

地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题,短临地震预报是地震预报的难点,有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题,研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪,成功捕获到2010～2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育–发生的过程,初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制,可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时−空−强”的准确预报,提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设,进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律,建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径,渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。     

瞬时地壳运动与地震短临预报

本文在利用卫星红外扫描仪观测资料的基础上，探讨地震前低空大气的增温是地壳瞬时运动的表现，也是地球－大气耦合现象。通过分析，给出瞬时地壳运动引起增温的三种可能机制：岩石的辐射能量增加；岩层中ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２等气体溢出和太阳辐射导致增温；ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２含量增高和低空电场异常激发。并通过某些震例的增温展布形态及规律，恢复震前应力场和热增温演化特征：我国大陆东部ＮＮＥ方向为主压应力方向，大陆东南沿海主压应力方向ＳＮ向，而我国大陆西部地区主压应力方向为ＳＮ向，在青藏高原的东北部派生主压应力为ＮＥ向。最后，介绍了这几年试验性预报效果检验：４年多总共预报３２次，其中虚报２次，７次较准，１７次较好，６次较差，漏报强震８次。最后涉及到地震孕育、发生过程中的机理的初步研究结果。     

煤矿地应力异常层析成像方法的研究

地震层析成像技术是一种有效的物探方法.该文采用最小旅行时和SIRT法,对煤田中的地应力异常地震层析成像的方法进行成像研究,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义.     

永安西南5.1级地震前尤溪电磁辐射异常特征的研究

本文通过研究1997年5月31日永安西南M_L=5.1级地震前尤溪电磁辐射异常特征及其与本次地震三要素的关系,探讨利用数字采集仪PP40打印机记录电磁辐射信息,比起模拟记录的优势所在,总结出利用震前电磁辐射异常信息,进行短临地震预报的一些规律。     

应用“八·五”短临预报方法分析福建地区地震

本文利用“八·五”短临预报的地震学攻关成果来分析福建地区的几个震例,检验其在福建地区的适用情况。     

四川汶川8级地震地应力异常——来自压磁频率应力测量系统的记录

2008年5月12日四川汶川发生8级特大地震,我们利用压磁频率测量系统在1000多公里以外记录了这一震惊世界的自然灾害。汶川地震发震前94天,地应力出现大幅度快速变化的短期地震前兆,三个受力元件分别受压633.5 Pa、1512 Pa、4561.4 Pa。临震前几小时指向震中方向的元件出现4次脉冲式突跳的临震异常,然后大地震发生了。距离震中1000多公里的中国辐射防护研究院台站（简称：中辐院台）完整地记录了大地震前表层剧烈形变的力量加强过程,这验证了李四光先生1973年提出的“在较大范围内、不同的活动断裂上,不同的地点可以获得相同的应力状态”的论点。本测量系统具有灵敏度高、动态性能好的优点,它抗干扰能力强,克服了采用电压、阻抗、电感信号传输的测量系统长期测值不稳定的干扰因素。该压磁频率应力测量系统不仅可安装在山地岩石中,也可应用于广大平原地区。可测量到快速变化的地震面波,能获取短临地震前兆信息,传感器安装在土层或岩层中,都能起到预报地震的效果,因而具有非常广阔的应用前景。     

卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究

文章扼要介绍卫星热红外亮温异常的基本原理,分析建立地震短临预测遥感信息模型,通过11 a试验性预报实践和几个地震的案例,如南海东沙地震,台湾集集大地震,震例还有内蒙包头地震,美国华盛顿州奥林匹亚地震及印尼苏门答腊巨震等。从作为震兆的亮温异常提升到热应力场,对预测地震震中更加可靠和更有说服力,说明此项技术具有实际应用前景。     

DK_1应力孔前兆异常的特点

本文以地震对应法分析了莆田地震台DK_1应力孔的前兆异常特点。     

Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China, and its Analysis on Geo‐dynamics

Abstract: Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band (10.3–11.3 μm) designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics: (1) The precursor appeared rather early: on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; (2) The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages: the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; (3) Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; (4) An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the post-earthquake phenomena.     

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

Abstract: The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14:00 o'clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of ~104 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi’an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.     

卫星热红外异常——四川汶川Ms8.0级大地震的短临震兆

利用我国FY-2C红外-波段(10.3-11.3μm)的卫星遥感图像,通过解译和研究,发现在5.12汶川大地震之前,就出现了明显、孤市的卫星热红外异常现象.其异常现象的特征具体表现为:①震兆出现早:即在2008年3月18日(震前55d),就开始出现了热红外异常;②异常阶段多日复杂:汶川地震前的卫旱热红外异常,可分5个阶段,而且热红外异常的展演各有不同.这在众多的卫星热红外地震研究案例中,可能是迄今为止异常阶段最多的一次;③单个阶段的持续时间长:最长达13d;④如此沿龙门山地震断裂带分布的明显的地热增温异常现象,可能在卫星热红外地震研究案例中是首次发现.这对研究发震特点,余震走向具有重要指示和启示意义.本项研究的结果再一次证明:作为地震短临震兆,在地震(特别是≥Ms 5.0)前必然出现热红外异常现象的实践性和规律性.利用卫星热红外异常现象进行地震短临预测研究是最有效和最有可能突破地震预测科学问题的途径和方法之一.     

ANALYSIS ON SHORT-TERM PRECURSORY ANOMALIES AND SEQUENCE CHARACTERISTIC OF NINGLANG EARTHQUAKE 1998

ANALYSIS ON SHORT-TERM PRECURSORY ANOMALIES AND SEQUENCE CHARACTERISTIC OF NINGLANG EARTHQUAKE 1998     

鲁甸地震(Ms6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构

2014年8月3日16时30分, 在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N, 103.3°E)发生M_s6.5地震, 震源深度10 km, 死亡617人, 失踪112人, 受伤3 143人, 受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应, 总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期, 具备M_s7地震的发生条件.次年, 利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息, 制定了2014年底211号地震预测表, 预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N, 105.33°E)将发生M_s5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸M_s6.5地震表明: 这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天, 震中相差226 km, 震级误差M_s1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究, NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置, 为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.      

Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan, China, and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band (10.3-11.3 μm) designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics: (1) The precursor appeared rather early: on March 18, 2008, I.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; (2) The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages: the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; (3) Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; (4) An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the post-earthquake phenomena.     

Tectonic Stress State Changes Before and After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Crustal tectonic activities are essentially the consequences of the accumulation and release of in situ stress. Therefore, studying the stress state near active faults is important for understanding crustal dynamics and earthquake occurrences. In this paper, using in situ stress measurement results obtained by hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and finite element modeling, the variation of stress state before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is investigated. The results show that the shear stress, which is proportional to the difference between principal stresses, increases with depth and distance from the active fault in the calm period or after the earthquakes, and tends to approach to the regional stress level outside the zone influenced by the fault. This distribution appears to gradually reverse with time and the change of fault properties such as frictional strength. With an increase in friction coefficient, low stress areas are reduced and areas with increased stress accumulation are more obvious near the fault. In sections of the fault with high frictional strengths, in situ stress clearly increases in the fault. Stress accumulates more rapidly in the fault zone relative to the surrounding areas, eventually leading to a stress field that peaks at the fault zone. Such a reversal in the stress field between the fault zone and surrounding areas in the magnitude of the stress field is a potential indicator for the occurrence of strong earthquakes.     

玄武岩成分变异原因

笔者等研究发现山东栖霞和浙江西垄两地新生代玄武岩中分别产有奇特的富钾霞石质和富透长石质熔体玻璃地幔捕虏体,而且它们与寄主玄武岩之间有强烈的混染反应.表明玄武岩浆不是一元系岩浆,而是不同期多元系岩浆.多元系所占比例差别很大,决定了玄武岩浆成分的多样性.另外,此玄武岩成分也很特别:①不见斜长石,主要是铬透辉石(Mg质太多);②含有较多霞石;③全岩SiO2低,37％ ～39％.此玄武岩应称为透辉石岩.     

基于泊松定理的重磁异常分析方法及应用

从泊松定理出发进行公式推导和分析,阐述了重磁异常的对应分析3个参数的物理意义,并认为在区域重磁数据解释时,对应分析得到的截距是在去掉感磁背景和与重力异常线性相关部分异常的剩磁异常的贡献,为其应用提供了基础。分析了重磁异常解释中泊松定理的作用,并通过具体的实例分析了基于泊松定理来确定地质体总磁化方向及其在分析火山岩活动中的作用。