Calibration and validation of rockfall modelling at regional scale: application along a roadway in Mallorca (Spain) and organization of its management

The Tramuntana range, in the northwestern sector of the island of Mallorca (Balearic Islands, Spain), is frequently affected by rockfalls which have caused significant damage, mainly along the road network. In this work, we present the procedure we have applied to calibrate and validate rockfall modelling in this region, using 103 cases of the available detailed rockfall inventory (630 rockfall events collected since the eighteenth century). We have exploited STONE (Guzzetti et al. 2002), a GIS-based rockfall simulation software which computes 2D and 3D rockfall trajectories starting from a DTM and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients. The appropriate identification of these parameters determines the accuracy of the simulation. To calibrate them, we have selected 40 rockfalls along the range which include a wide variety of outcropping lithologies. Coefficients values have been changed in numerous attempts in order to select those where the extent and shape of the simulation matched the field mapping. Best results were summarized with the average statistical values for each parameter and for each geotechnical unit, determining that mode values represent more precisely the data. Initially, for the validation stage, 10 well-known rockfalls exploited in the calibration phase have been selected. Confidence tests have been applied to their modelling results taking into account not only the success but also the mistakes. The best accuracy is obtained when the rockfall has a preferential trajectory and worse results when the rockfall follows two or more trajectories. Additionally, the greater the rockfall runout length, the less precise the simulation is. We have further validated the calibrated parameters along the Ma-road (111 km), the main transportation corridor in the range, using 63 rockfall events that occurred during the past 18 years along the road. Of the rockfalls where source areas were properly identified, 81.5 % are well represented by STONE modelling, as the travel paths and the depositional areas are successfully ascertained. Results of the analysis have been used by the Road Maintenance Service of Mallorca to assess hazard and risk posed by rockfall at regional scale to design the road management plan.     

Evaluating roadside rockmasses for rockfall hazards using LiDAR data: optimizing data collection and processing protocols

Highways and railroads situated within rugged terrain are often subjected to the hazard of rockfalls. The task of assessing roadside rockmasses for potential hazards typically involves an on-site visual investigation of the rockmass by an engineer or geologist. At that time, numerous parameters associated with discontinuity orientations and spacing, block size (volume) and shape distributions, slope geometry, and ditch profile are either measured or estimated. Measurements are typically tallied according to a formal hazard rating system, and a hazard level is determined for the site. This methodology often involves direct exposure of the evaluating engineer to the hazard and can also create a potentially non-unique record of the assessed slope based on the skill, knowledge and background of the evaluating engineer. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–based technologies have the capability to produce spatially accurate, high-resolution digital models of physical objects, known as point clouds. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR equipment can collect, at traffic speed, roadside data along highways and rail lines, scanning continual distances of hundreds of kilometres per day. Through the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR, in conjunction with airborne and static systems for problem areas, rockfall hazard analysis workflows can be modified and optimized to produce minimally biased, repeatable results. Traditional rockfall hazard analysis inputs include two distinct, but related sets of variables related to geological or geometric control. Geologically controlled inputs to hazard rating systems include kinematic stability (joint identification/orientation) and rock block shape and size distributions. Geometrically controlled inputs include outcrop shape and size, road, ditch and outcrop profile, road curvature and vehicle line of sight. Inputs from both categories can be extracted or calculated from LiDAR data, although there are some limitations and special sampling and processing considerations related to structural character of the rockmass, as detailed in this paper.     

Analysis of rockfall risk on mountainside roads: evaluation of the effect of protection devices

Many kilometres of roads are close to rock slopes that are prone to rockfalls. The fulfilment of safety requirements in such situations is a multidimensional design process involving public and private technicians in the assessment and management of the problem. In this paper, a rockfall risk management approach has been applied to the road infrastructure network of the Regione Autonoma Valle D’Aosta, in order to calculate the level of risk and of its reduction using rockfall protection devices. In order to better understand the methodology, a comparative analysis of road accidents in Aosta Valley has been discussed. The road risk assessment was developed taking into account the absence of rockfall protection devices, and when they are present, different levels of efficacy have been considered.     

融合区域潜在落石源区识别的峡谷区落石危险性评价

山西壶关太行山大峡谷景区为中国最美十大峡谷之一,但景区落石灾害频发,严重威胁景区安全运营。本文基于高精度地形信息与岩土体强度特性,采用坡度角分布方法开展区域尺度潜在落石源区识别,并引入岩体破坏敏感性指标定量描述潜在落石源区失稳概率。然后,利用经验模型Flow-R模拟落石运动扩散过程,获取落石的传播概率与能量分布情况。最后,提出落石危险性双因子评价模型实现落石危险性定量评估。获得主要结论如下:(1)研究区内潜在落石源区面积为25.7 km2(35.7%),主要以条带状分布于峡谷两侧陡壁。其中岩体破坏高敏感性区为3.3 km2。(2)研究区落石高危险区面积达3.22 km2,主要威胁景区内游客集散地与交通线路,尤其在S327荫林线红豆峡入口处落石危险性最高。(3)野外调查验证结果表明了应用坡度角分布方法识别潜在落石源区的高效性与准确性,提出的双因子评价模型可为峡谷区落石危险性评估提供快速解决方案。本文提出的“区域落石源区识别-源区失稳概率分析-落石危险性评估”的一整套技术方案能够为类似的高山峡谷区落石灾害早期识别及风险防控提供技术参考。     

Rockfall hazard analysis for an historical Castle in Kastamonu (Turkey)

The Kastamonu Castle located on a sandstone hill with Eocene age is one of the most historical and touristic places in Kastamonu city center. The settlement of the city expanded towards the hill of the Kastamonu Castle and adversely affected by rockfalls in the past. The rockfall problems around the castle could be related to jointing, weathering, freezing-thawing and earthquake effects or a combination. In this study, the rockfall hazard at the castle is evaluated by two-dimensional rockfall analyses along 17 profiles selected in different orientations. Different size of rock blocks and various types of movements are taken into consideration in the analyses. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the sandstone blocks are separately evaluated. The obtained data are used to define the possible rockfall hazard zones. Finally, the areas having potential rockfall risks are distinguished. Based on the evaluation of the data, rock bolting after removing of unstable blocks and supporting the area with the protective fences are suggested.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Rockfall hazard assessment along a road in the Sorrento Peninsula,Campania, southern Italy

Rockfalls are common in the steep and vertical slopes of the Campania carbonate massifs and ridges, and frequently represent the main threat to the anthropogenic environment, potentially damaging urban areas, scattered houses, roads, etc. Despite the generally limited volumes involved, the high velocity of movement (from few to tens of metres per second) poses rockfalls among the most dangerous natural hazards to man. Evaluating the rockfall hazard is not an easy task, due to the high number of involved factors, and particularly to the difficulty in determining the properties of the rock mass. In this paper, we illustrate the assessment of the rockfall hazard along a small area of the Sorrento Peninsula (Campania region, southern Italy). Choice of the site was determined by the presence of a road heavily frequented by vehicles. In the area, we have carried out detailed field surveys and software simulations that allow generating simple rockfall hazard maps. Over twenty measurement stations for geo-mechanical characterization of the rock mass have been distributed along a 400-m-long slope of Mount Vico Alvano. Following the internationally established standards for the acquisition of rock mass parameters, the main kinematics have been recognized, and the discontinuity families leading to the different failures identified. After carrying out field experiments by artificially releasing a number of unstable blocks on the rock cliff, the rockfall trajectories along the slope were modelled using 2-D and 3-D programs for rockfall analysis. The results were exploited to evaluate the rockfall hazard along the threatened element at risk.     

Evaluating seismically induced mass movement hazard in Caramanico Terme (Italy)

Mass movements and earthquakes represent two major geological hazards in the municipal territory of Caramanico Terme (south-central Apennines). Available records revealed the contemporaneous occurrence of earthquakes and slope failures on four occasions in the last four centuries (1627, 1706, 1933, and 1984). These events, with local intensities ranging from VI to IX, generated mass movements varying from a rotational slope failure to rock/block falls. All occurred in the southern periphery of the town and involved a thick carbonate megabreccia caprock and coarse colluvia which overlie a clayey substratum. Field investigation and review of historical records helped to delimit the areas susceptible to seismically triggered rockfalls. The mapping of historic and pre-historic rockfall deposits revealed their dispersal patterns and provided the basis for a determination of potential hazard zones. We approximate the temporal hazard assessment by relating the rockfall occurrence to the probability of earthquake triggering. Considering the VI degree triggering threshold indicated by local historical data, the statistical analysis of the regional seismic activity shows that events capable of inducing rockfalls have an approximately decennial recurrence in Caramanico. The approach presented could be readily applied to other potential risk areas of Italy by exploiting the rich long-term record of historical seismicity. In general, temporal hazard estimates at relatively low intensity levels will be possible even where the seismic history of the site is only well documented for a relatively limited time interval, provided that this interval is much longer than the recurrence time of the events exceeding the threshold considered.     

簧式缓冲器的工作原理及其在滚石柔性防护系统中的应用

滚石是突发于人工边坡或自然边坡上的一类特殊的地质灾害,对坡下的人类活动和基础设施的安全构成极大威胁.柔性防护系统是滚石灾害防治的重要方法之一,而摩擦制动环是应用于钢绳拦石网并起到关键缓冲作用的部件.作者发现,当前使用的摩擦制动环存在着缓冲效率较低、较易损坏、成本较高等诸多不足.针对这些不足,提出了一种可应用于滚石柔性防护系统的簧式缓冲器.理论研究表明,它具有缓冲效率较高、不易损坏、价格较低等优点,可望在滚石柔性防护系统中得到广泛应用.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

Assessment of rock slope stability with the effects of weathering and excavation by comparing deterministic methods and slope stability probability classification (SSPC)

Cut slopes are prone to fail due to the disturbance on original geometry and strength. In addition, because of these disturbances and stress relief, natural apertures which increase the weathering effects widen in engineering time. Owing to these reasons, slope stability assessment has a prominent role on these road cuts. Generally, slope stabilities are assessed by deterministic approaches with a significant engineering judgment. Because of this reason the reputation of probabilistic approaches is increasing. In this study, 20 road cuts located in North West Black Sea region of Turkey were evaluated using slope stability probability classification (SSPC). Considering this probabilistic approach, rock strength parameters and failure mechanisms were determined. Furthermore, slope mass rating (SMR) classification was applied for each road cut in order to compare with the results obtained from SSPC. These overall results were then evaluated with the field observations considering rockslope deterioration assessment (RDA) and Falling Rock Hazard Index (FRHI) for the disturbed/weathered zones, and failure mechanisms. According to these, SSPC is found to be more accurate for surficial degradations (raveling and fall) using samples taken from the disturbed/weathered zones rather than using relatively fresh samples beyond the disturbed zone. Moreover, despite strength differences between weathered and relatively fresh zones, SMR classification is identified to reveal the same stable probabilities. It is found that SSPC shows more detailed probabilistic results than SMR. Lastly, rockfall and raveling mechanisms determined by RDA and rockfall risk by FRHI were found to be coherent with SSPC and field observations.     

Rockfall risk assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy)

The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions).     

无人机影像在高陡边坡危岩体调查中的应用

在高陡边坡危岩体的调查中,复杂的地形条件经常限制工作的正常开展,如何快速准确地获取地质灾害信息一直是地质灾害调查研究中的难点之一。以往的研究中对无人机遥感技术在黄土、高原等地区应用有所报道,但对西南地区高陡边坡危岩体灾害调查的研究尚无报道。文章以锦屏二级水电站出线场边坡落石灾害所在区域为例,将无人机摄影测量技术应用于高陡边坡危岩体调查中,通过无人机倾斜摄影获取高分辨率遥感影像,开展遥感影像三维建模,进行地质灾害遥感解译,总结了无人机遥感系统在高陡边坡危岩体调查的技术流程。通过三维实景模型,精确地分析了落石灾害的空间分布、失稳模式及演化过程,查明了区域内危岩隐患点的分布特征;基于三维点云模型,提取出地质灾害体的属性信息,测得落石方量为11.7 m3,采用最小二乘法进行平面拟合,得到落石两组主控结构面产状为275.4°∠31.2°、103.5°∠63.3°。实践表明,无人机遥感技术在高陡边坡地区落石灾害调查中具有明显的可行性和优越性,可以较好地应用于高陡边坡危岩体调查中。     

基于RHRS系统的景区落石风险评估与决策

近年国内山地景区落石掉块现象常有发生,游客的生命安全受到严重威胁,因此对落石风险研究具有科学价值和重要社会效益。通过引入RHRS风险评估系统,针对两座样本景区,对可能导致落石灾害的各项影响因子(包括斜坡高度、地质特征、落石体积/块体大小、降雨量和历史落石频率等)进行较为深入的分析,根据原始评分公式进行风险评分,以综合分值来反映落石风险程度并结合风险允许标准划分高、中、低风险区域进行决策,将抽象的定性评价转为具体的定量评价,得到衢州药王山与江郎山两座样本景区的自然落石风险评分分别为142、117.2。采用FN曲线与ALARP原则相结合的方法来确定风险允许标准,计算我国可接受风险平均值为1.62×10-5/a,得到我们国家地质灾害可接受的风险水平FN曲线的上下限依次为10×10-4/a和10×10-5/a,为景区落石风险评估与决策提供借鉴。     

Seismic-induced rockfalls and landslide dam following the October 30, 2016 earthquake in Central Italy

On October 30, 2016, a seismic event and its aftershocks produced diffuse landslides along the SP 209 road in the Nera River Gorge (Central Italy). Due to the steep slopes and the outcropping of highly fractured and bedded limestone, several rockfalls were triggered, of which the main event occurred on the slope of Mount Sasso Pizzuto. The seismic shock acted on a rock wedge that, after an initial slide, developed into a rockfall. The debris accumulation blocked the SP 209 road and dammed the Nera River, forming a small lake. The river discharge was around 3.6 m³/s; the water overtopped the dam and flooded the road. By a preliminary topographic survey, we estimated that the debris accumulation covers an area of about 16,500 m², while the volume is around 70,000 m³. The maximum volume occupied by the pre-existing talus mobilized by the rockfall is about 20% of the total volume. Besides blocking the road, the rockfall damaged a bridge severely, while, downstream of the dam, the water flow caused erosion of a road embankment. A rockfall protection gallery, a few hundred meters downstream of the dam, was damaged during the event. Other elastic nets and rigid barriers were not sufficient to protect the road from single-block rockfalls, with volumes around 1–2 m³. Considering the geological and geomorphological conditions, as well as the high seismicity and the socioeconomic importance of the area, a review of the entire rockfall protection systems is required to ensure protection of critical infrastructure and local communities.     

鄂西山区崩塌落石运动特征及危险性分析

以远安县瓦坡崩塌区为例,通过地质调查、野外测绘、无人机航拍,建立了瓦坡崩塌区三维模型,基于Rockfall Analyst（RA）分析软件,实现了瓦坡崩塌区大量崩塌落石三维空间下运动路径、高度、能量等要素模拟,探究了崩塌区落石的三维运动特征,开展了崩塌区落石危险性评估,为崩塌落石的防治提供科学参考。研究结果表明:崩塌区危岩主要破坏形式为倾倒式,目前处于欠稳定状态;模拟落石三维运动轨迹与已有落石点基本重合,说明此次模拟结果与实际情况较为吻合;落石运动过程中以碰撞弹跳、自由飞落为主,落石主要集中在崩塌区下部冲沟及公路内,部分落石达到居民区,在崩塌落石区下部公路、冲沟及崩塌区右侧危险性较高;崩塌落石防治工程建议采用危石孤石清除+被动防护网,在公路内侧、斜坡下方分别设置5 m高和3 m高抗冲击力2 000 kJ的被动防护网,可有效拦截落石。     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis for Hong Kong Based on Rockfall Inventory

Summary ¶This paper compiles and analyzes the rockfall data in Hong Kong in the last fifty years. A simple rockfall hazard analysis is presented based on this rockfall inventory. A frequency-magnitude relation, which is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquake occurrence, is proposed for rockfall, and direct correlation between rockfall frequency and the daily rainfall is observed. Data analysis shows that a threshold daily rainfall of about 150–200mm is expected in order to trigger rockfall events in Hong Kong. Among the 368 rockfall events in the 13 year period from 1984 to 1996 in Hong Kong, 35% of the incidents lead to blockage of or damage to roads, 22% lead to damages or evacuation of squatter huts, 21% lead to blockage of pedestrian pavement and footpath, and 15% affect buildings, such as housing apartments and schools. Only 15% of these rockfalls fell onto open space and caused negligible effects on human activities. Most of these rockfall events occurred during heavy rain and when landslide warning should has been issued by the Hong Kong Observatory, thus only 6% of these events led to injury or casualty, car damages, and damages to public utilities. Rockfall hazard zonation maps in terms of the spatial distribution of previous rockfalls are proposed for both Kowloon Peninsula and Hong Kong Island.     

编目图数据形式对区域崩塌易发性评价结果的影响

本文以北京市怀柔区为例,通过现场调查,对688处崩塌灾害分别以面数据和点数据的形式获取了两套编目图。根据现场调查和资料分析,选取岩性、地形、断裂和道路建设作为该区崩塌灾害的主控因素,采用频率比(FR)模型对崩塌灾害的易发性进行了评价。为了对评价结果的预测性进行检验,采用随机分割法,选取了415处崩塌用于频率比模型的计算,剩余的273处崩塌用于评价结果预测性的验证。预测曲线表明,基于崩塌面数据的评价结果比基于点数据的评价结果具有明显的优越性。根据基于面数据的频率比模型评价结果,可以将研究区的崩塌灾害易发性划分为5个等级:较低易发(占全区14%)、低易发(占全区20%)、中等易发(占全区27%)、高易发(占全区22%)和极高易发(占全区17%)。相关工作和结论可以为区域地质灾害易发性评价中编目图的编制提供参考,并为怀柔区区域国土利用和防灾减灾提供指导。     

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Fuzzy Logic System and Its Influences on Mainlines in Lashgarak Region,Tehran, Iran

Landslide susceptibility mapping is among the useful tools applied in disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous areas. The susceptibility maps prepared in this research provide valuable information for landslide hazard management in Lashgarak region of Tehran. This study was conducted to, first, prepare landslide susceptibility maps for Lashgarak region and evaluate landslide effect on mainlines and, second, to analyze the main factors affecting landslide hazard increase in the study area in order to propose efficient strategies for landslide hazard mitigation. A GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis model (fuzzy logic) is used in the present work for scientific evaluation of landslide susceptible areas in Lashgarak region. To this end, ArcGIS, PCIGeomatica, and IDIRISI software packages were used. Eight information layers were selected for information analysis: ground strength class, slope angle, terrain roughness, normalized difference moisture index, normalized difference vegetation index, distance from fault, distance from the river, and distance from the road. Next, eight different scenarios were created to determine landslide susceptibility of the study area using different operators (intersection (AND), union (OR), algebraic sum (SUM), multiplication (PRODUCT), and different fuzzy gamma values) of fuzzy overlay approach. After that, the performance of various fuzzy operators in landslide susceptibility mapping was empirically compared. The results revealed the excellent consistency of landslide susceptibility map prepared using the fuzzy union (OR) operator with landslide distribution map in the study area. Eventually, the accuracy of landslide susceptibility map prepared using the fuzzy union (OR) operator was evaluated using the frequency ratio diagram. The results showed that frequency values of the landslides gradually increase from “low susceptibility” to high “susceptibility” as 88.34% of the landslides are categorized into two “high” and “very high” susceptibility classes, implying the satisfactory consistency between the landslide susceptibility map prepared using fuzzy union (OR) operator and landslide distribution map.     

Event tree analysis for rockfall risk assessment along a strategic mountainous transportation route

A quantitative risk analysis has been performed in a tourist area of Sicily (Italy) with the aim of assessing the rockfall risk along an important transportation corridor, crossing a geologically complex area and poor rock masses. The procedure followed herein is based on an event tree analysis, which was properly customized to take into account the peculiarity of the area and of the road path. Rock mass surveys, trajectory simulations and probabilistic models are proposed with the aim of calculating the probability related to possible scenarios in case of rockfalls. Achieved outcomes demonstrate that such procedure, resulting from a multifaceted study, is a reliable tool, which can be taken as reference to calibrate further risk models in comparable contexts of the world, where rockfall threaten communication routes. This would represent a helpful instrument to the scientific community and to local authorities dealing with one of the most troublesome natural phenomena affecting the public safety.