Point source identification using a simple permutation test: a case study of elevated PCDD/F levels in ambient air and soil and their relation to the distance to a local municipal solid waste incinerator

A point source for environmental pollution may be identified by the spatial association of samples collected in the vicinity of the emission source. In this study, we used a simple permutation test to explore the spatial correlations between the ambient air and soil polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin/dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) congener profile concentrations and their distances to a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in northern Taiwan. Kendall’s τ was applied for the correlation between the PCDD/F concentrations of a total of 9 airborne and 12 soil sampling sites and their distances to the incinerator. The results showed that the correlation was highly negatively associated for soil PCDD/Fs (τ = −0.515, p-value = 0.011) and was marginal for airborne PCDD/Fs (τ = −0.667, p-value = 0.055), conditional on the seasonal wind attributions. For the 17 individual congener profiles, most of the air and soil samples had a negative association, with 7 and 10 reaching statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) or borderline significance (0.05 < p-value < 0.10), respectively. The permutation test provides a simple and robust statistical method for the identification of a potential pollution source from a limited sample size. Our analytical results show that dioxin emissions from the investigated MSWI had a definite environmental impact on the surrounding area.     

Point source identification using a simple permutation test: a case study of elevated PCDD/F levels in ambient air and soil and their relation to the distance to a local municipal solid waste incinerator

A point source for environmental pollution may be identified by the spatial association of samples collected in the vicinity of the emission source. In this study, we used a simple permutation test to explore the spatial correlations between the ambient air and soil polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin/dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) congener profile concentrations and their distances to a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in northern Taiwan. Kendall’s τ was applied for the correlation between the PCDD/F concentrations of a total of 9 airborne and 12 soil sampling sites and their distances to the incinerator. The results showed that the correlation was highly negatively associated for soil PCDD/Fs (τ = −0.515, p-value = 0.011) and was marginal for airborne PCDD/Fs (τ = −0.667, p-value = 0.055), conditional on the seasonal wind attributions. For the 17 individual congener profiles, most of the air and soil samples had a negative association, with 7 and 10 reaching statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) or borderline significance (p-value < 0.10), respectively. The permutation test provides a simple and robust statistical method for the identification of a potential pollution source from a limited sample size. Our analytical results show that dioxin emissions from the investigated MSWI had a definite environmental impact on the surrounding area.     

Spatial autoregressive functional plug-in prediction of ocean surface temperature

This paper addresses the problem of spatial functional extrapolation in the framework of spatial autoregressive Hilbertian processes of order one (SARH(1) processes) introduced in Ruiz-Medina (J Muitivar Anal 102:292–305, 2011a). Moment-based estimators of the operators involved in the state equation of these processes are computed by projection into a suitable orthogonal basis. Specifically, the eigenfunction basis diagonalizing the autocovariance operator is considered. An estimation algorithm is designed for the implementation of the resulting SARH(1)-plug-in projection extrapolator from temporal curves irregularly distributed in space. Its performance is illustrated with a real-data example, where the problem of spatial functional extrapolation of ocean surface temperature profiles is addressed. This problem is crucial in the assessment of climate change anomalies. The data are collected from the public oceanographic bio-optical database: The World-wide Ocean Optics Database. Cross Validation (C.V.) procedures are applied for the evaluation of the estimation results derived.     

Controls on spatial and temporal variations in sand delivery to salmonid spawning riffles

Fine sediment infiltration into gravel interstices is known to be detrimental to incubating salmonid embryos. Infiltration into spawning riffles can show large spatial variations at the scale of a morphological unit and over time, with significant implications for embryo survival. Furthermore, some process‐based infiltration studies, and incubation‐to‐emergence models assume that fines are delivered to redds via suspension rather than bedload. This process‐based 12‐month study examined spatial patterns of predominantly sand infiltration into gravels in an upland trout stream, using infiltration baskets. An assessment of Rouse numbers for infiltrated sand indicated that it was transported predominantly as bedload at flow peaks. Clear temporal and spatial patterns existed, with highest rates of infiltration strongly associated with higher discharges (r² = 0.7, p < .05). Seasonal variations in the delivery of different grain sizes were also a feature, with enhanced contributions of 0.5–2 mm sediment during elevated winter flows and 0.125–0.5 mm sediment during spring and summer; the latter is potentially harmful to the later stages of embryo incubation. Clear spatial patterns were also evident across riffles, with highest rates of infiltration tending to occur in areas of lower relative roughness—the areas competent to transport sand for longer periods. Incubation‐to‐emergence models should take into consideration spatial patterns of fine sediment dynamics at the pool–riffle scale, to improve prediction.     

Environmental assessment of two artificial reef systems off southern Portugal (Faro and Olhão): A question of location

This study investigates environmental assessment of artificial reef systems deployed at different areas in terms of nutrient cycling and seabed organic enrichment. Two identical artificial reef systems: Olhão Artificial Reef—OAR (37°00′55″N and 007°44′54″W) and Faro Artificial Reef—FAR (36°58′65″N and 008°00′91″W) were deployed in southern Portuguese coast, adjacent to a highly productive coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa) in 1990 and monitorized over two years (1992–1993). Water samples were collected within OAR and FAR systems, inside the lagoon (L) and in a non-reef area (NRA) to evaluate nutrient dynamics. Settled particles and sediment cores were also sampled within OAR and FAR to determine aluminium, calcium, silicon and chlorophyll a and organic and inorganic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous. Results obtained showed that: (i) water column nutrients evidenced seasonal and spatial variability. The maximum nutrients concentration was recorded inside the lagoon and in OAR, mainly during warmer periods. Ammonium, nitrate and silicate in OAR were statistically higher (p<0.01, n=18) than in FAR and NRA; (ii) particulate organic carbon and nitrogen in FAR settled particles were significantly higher (p<0.005) than those collected at OAR; and (iii) organic carbon and nitrogen, calcium, aluminium and chlorophyll a in OAR upper sediment were higher than at FAR. The overall results suggest that OAR is a productive system, emphasizing its contribution to the trophic chain pull out, while FAR presented oceanic oligotrophic water.     

Uptake and depuration of PAHs and chlorinated pesticides by semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis)

Semi-batch seawater experiments were conducted to follow the uptake and release of selected PAHs (anthracene, fluorathene, pyrene and B[a]P) and organochlorine pesticides (α-HCH, aldrin, dieldrin, p,p′-DDT) in semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and green-lipped mussels (Perna viridis). Mathematical models were applied to describe the uptake and elimination curves of the contaminants for SPMDs, and kinetic parameters, such as uptake rate constants, and equilibrium triolein/water partitioning coefficients were calculated. SPMD data showed a good fit to estimate rate constant and partition coefficient equations, but only those contaminants which partitioned mainly in the dissolved phase (α-HCH and dieldrin) were well explained for mussels. Poor conformity of the other contaminants indicated mussels uptake by routes other than diffusion, such as ingestion of algae. An apparent equilibrium state was only noted for α-HCH in mussels. Aldrin was not detected in mussels in the first few days of exposure, indicating potential metabolism of this compound. B[a]P was not detected in the triolein of SPMDs, which suggests that the membrane may act as a reservoir. Loss of spiked B[a]P from the triolein was evident in a depuration experiment, which may indicate transfer to the membrane. Rate constants for mussels were higher than those for SPMDs, but the reverse was true for partition coefficients. Overall, mussels and SPMDs had similar uptake rates for all compounds in this study, excluding p,p′-DDT and dieldrin. Contaminant elimination took place more rapidly in mussels, implying that SPMDs are better candidates for detecting episodic discharge of organic contaminants.     

A universal field equation for dispersive processes in heterogeneous media

When formulated properly, most geophysical transport-type process involving passive scalars or motile particles may be described by the same space–time nonlocal field equation which consists of a classical mass balance coupled with a space–time nonlocal convective/dispersive flux. Specific examples employed here include stretched and compressed Brownian motion, diffusion in slit-nanopores, subdiffusive continuous-time random walks (CTRW), super diffusion in the turbulent atmosphere and dispersion of motile and passive particles in fractal porous media. Stretched and compressed Brownian motion, which may be thought of as Brownian motions run with nonlinear clocks, are defined as the limit processes of a special class of random walks possessing nonstationary increments. The limit process has a mean square displacement that increases as t^α+1 where α > −1 is a constant. If α = 0 the process is classical Brownian, if α < 0 we say the process is compressed Brownian while if α > 0 it is stretched. The Fokker–Planck equations for these processes are classical ade’s with dispersion coefficient proportional to t^α. The Brownian-type walks have fixed time step, but nonstationary spatial increments that are Gaussian with power law variance. With the CTRW, both the time increment and the spatial increment are random. The subdiffusive Fokker–Planck equation is fractional in time for the CTRW’s considered in this article. The second moments for a Levy spatial trajectory are infinite while the Fokker–Planck equation is an advective–dispersive equation, ade, with constant diffusion coefficient and fractional spatial derivatives. If the Lagrangian velocity is assumed Levy rather than the position, then a similar Fokker–Planck equation is obtained, but the diffusion coefficient is a power law in time. All these Fokker–Planck equations are special cases of the general non-local balance law.     

Broadband (0.05 to 20 s) prediction of displacement response spectra based on worldwide digital records

A new set of empirical equations for prediction of displacement response spectral ordinates from 20 Hz to T = 20 s is illustrated. The coefficients of the equations were obtained by regressing a dataset based on 1,155 tri-axial digital and 9 analog accelerometer records from 60 earthquakes worldwide. Long period disturbances in the accelerograms were evaluated and removed using a very recent method, aimed at preserving the long-period spectral content of the records. Analysis of variance has disclosed only little evidence for regional dependence of ground motions, while a carefully conducted evaluation of site effects resulted in clearly differentiated spectral amplification bands associated to the main ground types B, C, and D of Eurocode 8. Spectral ordinates for vibration periods >5 s were found to scale with magnitude quite consistently with theoretical scaling from Brune’s model. On the other hand, comparison of results with those yielded by recent prediction models in Europe and the United States (NGA), indicated that the latter may not be uniformly reliable at long periods. The proposed empirical equations are easily implemented in computer programs for seismic hazard assessment, being characterized by a simple functional form and a restricted number of predictor variables. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Turbulence in vegetated flows: Volume-average analysis and modelling aspects

Two approaches for the modelling of turbulence in vegetated flows have been developed in the past. The “microscopic” approach which is straightforward but limited to simple cases and the “macroscopic” approach which is based on Volume Average Theory (VAT). In this study, aspects of Volume-Average (VA) analysis and modelling are investigated for turbulent vegetated flow using computed three-dimensional results from the solution of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations around a representative vegetal element. In particular (a) the VA transport equations for k and ε, based on VAT, are properly derived, (b) the Boussinesq hypothesis for the VA quantities, employed in 〈k〉-〈ε〉 turbulence models is tested, and (c) the values of the coefficients used in such turbulence models are assessed in comparison with those used in the classical turbulence models.     

Evaluation of seismicity and seismic hazard parameters in Turkey and surrounding area using a new approach to the Gutenberg–Richter relation

In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.     

Numerical studies of dispersion due to tidal flow through Moskstraumen, northern Norway

The effect of horizontal grid resolution on the horizontal relative dispersion of particle pairs has been investigated on a short time scale, i.e. one tidal M ₂ cycle. Of particular interest is the tidal effect on dispersion and transports in coastal waters where small-scale flow features are important. A three-dimensional ocean model has been applied to simulate the tidal flow through the Moskstraumen Maelstrom outside Lofoten in northern Norway, well known for its strong current and whirlpools (Gjevik et al., Nature 388(6645):837–838, 1997; Moe et al., Cont Shelf Res 22(3):485–504, 2002). Simulations with spatial resolution down to 50 m have been carried out. Lagrangian tracers were passively advected with the flow, and Lyapunov exponents and power law exponents have been calculated to analyse the separation statistics. It is found that the relative dispersion of particles on a short time scale (12–24 h) is very sensitive to the grid size and that the spatial variability is also very large, ranging from 0 to 100 km² over a distance of 100 m. This means that models for prediction of transport and dispersion of oil spills, fish eggs, sea lice etc. using a single diffusion coefficient will be of limited value, unless the models actually resolves the small-scale eddies of the tidal current.     

Sector collapse at Kick 'em Jenny submarine volcano (Lesser Antilles): numerical simulation and landslide behaviour

Kick 'em Jenny volcano is the only known active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles. It lies within a horseshoe-shaped structure open to the west northwest, toward the deep Grenada Basin. A detailed bathymetric survey of the basin slope at Kick 'em Jenny and resulting high-resolution digital elevation model allowed the identification of a major submarine landslide deposit. This deposit is thought to result from a single sector collapse event at Kick 'em Jenny and to be linked to the formation of the horseshoe-shaped structure. We estimated the volume and the leading-edge runout of the landslide to be ca. 4.4 km³ and 14 km, respectively. We modelled a sector collapse event of a proto Kick 'em Jenny volcano using VolcFlow, a finite difference code based on depth-integrated mass and momentum equations. Our models show that the landslide can be simulated by either a Coulomb-type rheology with low basal friction angles (5.5°–6.5°) and a significant internal friction angle (above 17.5°) or, with better results, by a Bingham rheology with low Bingham kinematic viscosity (0 < ν _B < 30 m²/s) and high shear strength (130 < γ ≤ 180 m²/s²). The models and the short runout distance suggest that the landslide travelled as a stiff cohesive flow affected by minimal granular disaggregation and slumping on a non-lubricated surface. The main submarine landslide deposit can therefore be considered as a submarine mass slide deposit that behaved like a slump.     

Relationships between correlation lengths and integral scales for covariance models with more than two parameters

In geostatistical applications, the terms correlation length and range are often used interchangeably and refer to a characteristic covariance length ξ that normalizes the lag distance in the variogram or the covariance model. We present equations that strictly define the correlation length (r _c ) and integral range (ℓ _c ). We derive analytical expressions for r _c and ℓ _c of the Whittle–Matérn, fluctuation gradient curvature and rational quadratic covariances. For these covariances, we show that the correlation length and integral range for a given model are not fully determined by ξ. We define non-trivial covariance functions, and we formulate an ergodicity index based on ℓ _c . We propose using the ergodicity index to compare coarse-grained measures corresponding to non-trivial covariance functions with different parameters. Finally, we discuss potential applications of the proposed covariance models in stochastic subsurface hydrology.     

Analysis of the Microseismicity Induced by Fluid Injections at the EGS Site of Soultz-sous-Forêts (Alsace, France): Implications for the Characterization of the Geothermal Reservoir Properties

In June/July 2000, a hydraulic stimulation experiment took place at the geothermal EGS site of Soultz-sous-Forêts (Alsace, France) in order to enhance the permeability of the fractured granitic massif at 5 km depth. As it is well known that fluid injections tend to induce microseismic events, a downhole and a surface seismological network have been installed to monitor the seismic activity during the stimulation test. 23400 m³ of fluid have been injected in the rock volume through the open-hole section (4400 m–5000 m) of the well GPK2 at increasing rates of 30 l.s⁻¹, 40 l.s⁻¹ and then 50 l.s⁻¹. More than 7200 microseismic events in the magnitude range –0.9 to 2.6 have been precisely located through a simultaneous inversion of the seismic velocity structure and location parameters. The analysis of the behavior of the seismicity relative to the hydraulic parameters gives important information about the geothermal reservoir. It appears that the evolution of the seismicity strongly depends on the variations of the injection rate: An increase or a decrease leads to changes of the velocity structure, the number and magnitude of microseismic events. This involves different hydro-mechanical processes between the fluid flow and the fracture planes, which will control the final shape of the microseismic cloud. Moreover, the study of the variations of the b-value with time suggests that the stimulation experiment produces a large proportion of small earthquakes, but records of events of magnitude higher than 2 indicate that fluid injection could reactivate structures whose dimensions allow the generation of such earthquakes.     

Low carbon dioxide partial pressure in a productive subtropical lake

The purposes of this study were to assess if Lake Apopka (FL, USA) was autotrophic or heterotrophic based on the partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (pCO₂) in the surface water and to evaluate factors that influence the long-term changes in pCO₂. Monthly average pH, alkalinity and other limnological variables collected between 1987 and 2006 were used to estimate dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pCO₂ and CO₂ flux between surface water and atmosphere. Results indicated that average pCO₂ in the surface water was 196 μatm, well below the atmospheric pCO₂. Direct measurements of DIC concentration on three sampling dates in 2009 also supported pCO₂ undersaturation in Lake Apopka. Supersaturation in CO₂ occurred in this lake in only 13% of the samples from the 20-year record. The surface-water pCO₂ was inversely related to Chl a concentrations. Average annual CO₂ flux was 28.2 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ from the atmosphere to the lake water and correlated significantly with Chl a concentration, indicating that biological carbon sequestration led to the low dissolved CO₂ concentration. Low pCO₂ and high invasion rates of atmospheric CO₂ in Lake Apopka indicated persistent autotrophy. High rates of nutrient loading and primary production, a high buffering capacity, a lack of allochthonous loading of organic matter, and the dominance of a planktivorous–benthivorous fish food web have supported long-term net autotrophy in this shallow subtropical eutrophic lake. Our results also showed that lake restoration by the means of nutrient reduction resulted in significantly lower total phosphorus (TP) and Chl a concentrations, and higher pCO₂.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M _w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M _w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).